Question about 4* token odds

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  • jamesh
    jamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards
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    NMANOZ said:
    I assumed the split would be 25/75 since that is technically 3 times more likely (so 1 in 4 for classic, 3 in 4 for latest). I personally find that I get about that.
    I'm pretty sure the info screen is trying to say each individual latest character is three times more likely to be pulled than each individual vintage character.  There aren't equal numbers of latest and vintage characters, so this doesn't work out to 75% / 25%.

    One way to think about it is to imagine you have a bag that contains one cover of each of the 60 available characters.  At this point, a single pull has a 1/60 chance of pulling any individual cover.  Now add another two covers for each of the latest characters to the bag, so it now contains 84 covers: you've now got 3/84 chance of pulling a latest character and 1/84 chance of pulling a classic cover.

    Looking at the latest characters as a group, they represent 36/84 of the covers in the bag.  That's around 43%, which is where my 43%/57% split figure came from.

    To hit 50%/50%, you'd need to throw another set of latest covers into the bag (i.e. 4x odds) so they'd represent 48/96 of the covers.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,293 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Another way to look at it is this:

    If you have a 50/50 split, that is divided between two groups of characters:  Latest and Vintage.  We have equal odds of getting a Latest or a Vintage from any one pull.  There are 12 Latest and have been since the un-vaulting began (technically since vaulting).  When unvaulting occurred, there were 9 less 4's so that means we had 39 Vintage.  Back then, you had 50% chance of pullling 1/12 or 1/39 characters.  Those translate to about 8.33% odds of a specific Latest or 2.56% odds of a specific Vintage, or about 3.248X odds.  (So they understated the multiplier a little.)

    Now we have 48 Vintage, so we compare 1/12 to 1/48 and get 8.33% odds of a specific Latest vs 2.08% odds of a specific Vintage, which is about 4.004X the odds now of getting a specific Latest vs a specific Vintage.

    So, they could update their display to show "4X" odds, but the fact remains that the numbers continue to support that you have a 50/50 chance of getting a Latest vs a Vintage from any one pull; but of course, there are always outliers or weird patterns that can emerge.
  • jamesh
    jamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards
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    @bluewolf: so I think we are in agreement that the two pieces of info from the developers can't both be right ("even split for latest vs. vintage" and "individual latest characters are three times as likely as individual vintage characters").

    But I don't have the data to confidently say that the "even split" statement is the current truth.  For the pulls I've seen, it could be consistent with either a 43% or a 50% split.  So I thought it worth asking for clarification (which I'd still like to get).

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