Dupe Masterpiece

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Comments

  • Rhasget
    Rhasget Posts: 412 Mover and Shaker
    I have got two MP since I started (just when AKH was released). Have bought alot of packs, played every event for max rewards (or as high as I managed in the beginning) but no luck.
    Actually the opposite since my MPs are the same, Minds Eye x2!
    Even tried abusing the elite pack reroll when I had all but two mythics in one set. But with three rerolls and then the guaranteed non-dupe it was still a mythic :)
    RNG is not on my side in this case.
  • bk1234
    bk1234 Posts: 2,924 Chairperson of the Boards
    Rhasget said:
    I have got two MP since I started (just when AKH was released). Have bought alot of packs, played every event for max rewards (or as high as I managed in the beginning) but no luck.
    Actually the opposite since my MPs are the same, Minds Eye x2!
    Even tried abusing the elite pack reroll when I had all but two mythics in one set. But with three rerolls and then the guaranteed non-dupe it was still a mythic :)
    RNG is not on my side in this case.
    But Mind's Eye is a REALLY good card. Speeds up the Bolas battle with Ob and gives you draw anywhere else you need it. (Trying to be optimistic -- could have been Sunder or Gauntlet of Power)
  • Rhasget
    Rhasget Posts: 412 Mover and Shaker
    bken1234 said:
    Rhasget said:
    I have got two MP since I started (just when AKH was released). Have bought alot of packs, played every event for max rewards (or as high as I managed in the beginning) but no luck.
    Actually the opposite since my MPs are the same, Minds Eye x2!
    Even tried abusing the elite pack reroll when I had all but two mythics in one set. But with three rerolls and then the guaranteed non-dupe it was still a mythic :)
    RNG is not on my side in this case.
    But Mind's Eye is a REALLY good card. Speeds up the Bolas battle with Ob and gives you draw anywhere else you need it. (Trying to be optimistic -- could have been Sunder or Gauntlet of Power)
    True, I use it in some decks and there are alot worse to pull.
    But a select few others to spice up some decks would be fun though.
  • Emanon2000
    Emanon2000 Posts: 156 Tile Toppler
    Volrak said:
    Emanon2000 said:
    Froggy said:
    Thanks guys. Not complaining. More just curious to know how great my odds were on pulling that off. I already pulled 5 of the 10 available MP cards from AKH and now got my first dupe. But I’m actually okay with it thanks to the announcement to booster crafting as it’s value is at least acknowledged in a way through this new system.
    This depends if you are talking True odds or the 'Manipulated' Odds...  

    The odds in the real world are astronomical... The odds in this game... You just encountered it.
    The odds of pulling 5 MPs from a set of 10 without any of them being a dupe are about 30%.  That's far from astronomical; Froggy was only a little lucky to get no dupes until his 6th.  (Unless you mean the odds of some other particular thing?)

    ******************
    Yeah, missed the part later on that said he had 5 from AKH already...  My Bad...

    From his first comment it made it sound like he got a duplicate MP and hadn't gotten any others ... there was no other mention of the other 5 in the original message.  
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    ZW2007- said:
    Ohboy said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

    Pulling a masterpiece now doesn't ruin your chances of pulling a masterpiece in future. You pulled half a guaranteed unique mythic. You should be celebrating.
    Not sure what the Gambler's fallacy has to do with this thread at all. The odds of getting a MP are very low so it's understandable to dread getting a dupe. 

    Well, why do you dread getting a dupe? What have you lost by opening a dupe masterpiece?

    The answer is nothing. So if you dread getting a dupe, you're a victim of the fallacy. You think you've "burnt" your masterpiece roll. 
  • GrizzoMtGPQ
    GrizzoMtGPQ Posts: 776 Critical Contributor
    edited December 2017
    I have 12 Masterpieces of which I have 3 dupes. It's a sucky feeling.
  • Thuran
    Thuran Posts: 456 Mover and Shaker
    3 masterpieces, no dupes so far :) 
  • ManiiNames
    ManiiNames Posts: 213 Tile Toppler
    It’s not all random.  I pulled my two Lords of Annihilation back to back from two pink packs.  It was one of those super packs Octagon put together a month or so back that had all of the HoD mythics in it.  Was maybe 12 mythics and 5 MP in the pack, odds of getting the same one back to back is pitiful.  I also pulled five white hours, one red Hour and one cat lord out of that pack, in between reimbursements.
  • ZW2007-
    ZW2007- Posts: 812 Critical Contributor
    Ohboy said:
    ZW2007- said:
    Ohboy said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

    Pulling a masterpiece now doesn't ruin your chances of pulling a masterpiece in future. You pulled half a guaranteed unique mythic. You should be celebrating.
    Not sure what the Gambler's fallacy has to do with this thread at all. The odds of getting a MP are very low so it's understandable to dread getting a dupe. 

    Well, why do you dread getting a dupe? What have you lost by opening a dupe masterpiece?

    The answer is nothing. So if you dread getting a dupe, you're a victim of the fallacy. You think you've "burnt" your masterpiece roll. 
    Not at all. I didn't burn my masterpiece roll because there was no masterpiece roll. Opening a booster pack is like buying a powerball ticket (or whatever random lotto they have wherever you are from), watching them pick the winning numbers is like getting a shaky gem, realizing the winning numbers are not a match to yours is like seeing that shaky gem be a dupe. There is a build up of anticipation: What will I spend all that money on when I win it? What will I use this brand new rare or better card to do? Oh, I didn't win, I'm disappointed. Oh, I already have this card, how disappointing. I (like most others I would assume) do not enjoy being disappointed. Therefore, I do not look forward to being disappointed. You might even say I dread it. It has no influence on what happens to me in the future. It's that millisecond of time where you see that the rarity indicator is that of a MP before you realize it's a card you already own. By saying I lost nothing, you are saying that emotions hold no value. The anticipation has value, the excitement of a MP has value, even the disappointment of a dupe has value. And that is why people dread dupe MPs. Don't try and force your interpretation onto others.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited December 2017
    So if I'm getting it right, you prefer your lottery ticket to hold nothing instead of the smallest payout?(what is it... 5 numbers matching?)

    Because like I said, you do get a payout now.


    //Removed Insult -Brigby
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    edited December 2017
    I think a great way to avoid disappointment is to match expectations to reality.  In the case of a shaking gem on opening a pack, it may be that reality is "almost certainly a dupe rare".  It's hard to be disappointed when you get what you expect (or something directly better, like a dupe MP).

    Like Ohboy, and probably everyone, I would swap all my dupe rares for dupe MPs if I could, because they're worth significantly more orbs.
  • wereotter
    wereotter Posts: 2,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    Volrak said:
    wereotter said:
    That could also be luck or number of boosters opened (since I don't know how many you opened) I've got two, three if you count I have a duplicate of one, and I got both of the originals from elite packs, and pulled my duplicate from a 5-card booster. So in my experience, the drop rate of masterpieces is abysmally low.
    Your experience seems about on par.  Around 1 in 10 elite packs (400) have an MP.  As for normal packs - expect one MP on average for every 80 premium packs or so.  (Bken's luck to get 5 MPs from normal packs has been  incredible, assuming she's opened far less than 400 PPs or 2000 normal boosters.)
    In that case, I must have had pretty good luck with the elite packs as I rarely buy any of them. I tend to look at if I own around half or more of they mythic cards on offer, I don't open them at all. I don't know if I've even opened 10 yet.
  • MDsupa
    MDsupa Posts: 124 Tile Toppler
    edited December 2017
    10 MP, 1 is dupe.  Swords of Fire and Ice.  1 open from Elite pack, 2 from Reroll Elite packs.  the rest from Single Pack rewards from each events.  None from the Premium Packs.  and I open 1 PP a week as I get enough Gold from the weekly events.
  • IM_CARLOS
    IM_CARLOS Posts: 640 Critical Contributor
    I have 5 MP no dupes. 3 from elite  pack and 2 from booster. But I opened hundreds of booster since release of MP. I think the drop rates are really, really low on that. 
  • Gilesclone
    Gilesclone Posts: 735 Critical Contributor
    After playing for a year, I have one MP.  No dupes!  I’d be happy with any number of MP dupes. :smile:
  • Hateborn
    Hateborn Posts: 37 Just Dropped In
    I have 4 masterpieces, one of which has a duplicate.  In order of pull and sources:

    Chain Lightning (Premium pack)
    Dark Ritual (no idea, found it in my card list one day, assuming a Premium pack)
    Chain Lightning (Premium pack, the duplicate)
    No Mercy (Mythic+ Elite pack)
    Sword of Light and Shadow (3-card Basic pack from event two weekends back)
  • khurram
    khurram Posts: 1,090 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hateborn said: 

    Sword of Light and Shadow (3-card Basic pack from event two weekends back)
    Are you sure it wasn't a 5- card booster? Because 3-card Basic packs don't have masterpieces in them.
  • Hateborn
    Hateborn Posts: 37 Just Dropped In
    khurram said:
    Hateborn said: 

    Sword of Light and Shadow (3-card Basic pack from event two weekends back)
    Are you sure it wasn't a 5- card booster? Because 3-card Basic packs don't have masterpieces in them.

    It's only the free 1-card boosters that don't have masterpieces, the 3-card basic boosters can have masterpieces ever since they made the change to how the free boosters work.  They're not listed in the prize pool since the 3-card Basic Booster shows up under the same header as the Free Booster, but they are most certainly in there.  I was quite surprised to see that pop out.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Hateborn said:

    It's only the free 1-card boosters that don't have masterpieces, the 3-card basic boosters can have masterpieces ever since they made the change to how the free boosters work.  They're not listed in the prize pool since the 3-card Basic Booster shows up under the same header as the Free Booster, but they are most certainly in there.  I was quite surprised to see that pop out.
    As are we all - it's the first MP from basic booster ever seen, as far as anyone knows.  It's also possibly the first time a card has dropped which wasn't listed in the prize pool for the pack type.  I guess if it's a thing now, we'll see some repeat occurrences.
  • Hateborn
    Hateborn Posts: 37 Just Dropped In
    Volrak said:
    Hateborn said:

    It's only the free 1-card boosters that don't have masterpieces, the 3-card basic boosters can have masterpieces ever since they made the change to how the free boosters work.  They're not listed in the prize pool since the 3-card Basic Booster shows up under the same header as the Free Booster, but they are most certainly in there.  I was quite surprised to see that pop out.
    As are we all - it's the first MP from basic booster ever seen, as far as anyone knows.  It's also possibly the first time a card has dropped which wasn't listed in the prize pool for the pack type.  I guess if it's a thing now, we'll see some repeat occurrences.
    Yeah, it was very distinctive because I had no Kaladesh block boosters left when I opened it and that was the only place (other than the Elite packs) that I was aware of that the sword could drop from.  I saw the icon shake and figured it was going to be yet another duplicate of Grind/Dust or something... I'm certain the chances on it are astronomical - the only other thread I've ever seen mention pulling a Masterpiece from a Basic Booster that was won in an event was this one from back in March:

    https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/61561/masterpiece-from-a-booster-pack

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