Are Demi and D3 panicking?

Jaedenkaal

Jarvind said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines

So true.

D4Ni13

It is clear that you don't know how the economy of a game like MPQ works... you cannot have it without all the players (f2p & buyers alike). Every HP has a value in real money & it doesn't matter where that HP came from when you buy something in game. It just matters that you spend it and roll it in the system (that's why they don't like hoarding by the way). So if I earn 100 HP in game and buy a token, it's the same thing as if you spent money and then bought the same token with your 100 HP. They cannot differentiate my HP from your HP. The only thing that matters is that HP to be on a profit in the system all the time (same concept as the bitcoin if you like).

Of course if you buy a large amount of HP, you will spend more than someone who earns HP, but the idea is that you cannot maintain the economy without every f2p user in the game, because you see buyers spend a lot but in instances, while f2p users generate fewer HP but constantly. It's like having a small salary & a big prime once in a while. You could say that the prime makes a huge difference, but the constant value in your life is actually the salary. You can plan around it because you know it is there all the time, while the prime is something that you can receive or not, so you cannot plan around it.

And as a short anwser, no, they are not panicking. The only ones that are panicking right now are the players impacted by the CP loss (if it will be revealed to be true).

jgomes32

Not yet, but the game won't make it anniversary 5.

Vhailorx

Jarvind said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines

fair point, it's a troll-y headline. 

Tony_Foot

jgomes32 said:

Not yet, but the game won't make it anniversary 5.

If you are so sure why don't you just give up now. I've seen a few people say this, so bitter about a game change that they would be happy to see their previous game time wasted so they can look smug if they pull the game.

Odd behaviour, do something better with your time as some time in the next 11 months it's all going to be taken away from you.

aa25

Whether SL and Dr. Oct are good or bad are not really relevant at this point. The main thing is they both left a very poor reception when they were released. A lot of people start hoarding to skip them is the real striking blow. The PvE 5* nodes which, to many people, are nothing but a "hoard-buster" strategy is another interesting decision that has been made.

Dormammu said:

Why would they change PvP to a win-based progression if they were worried about revenue? That's a change that will result in a lot fewer HP expenditures on shielding. I for one know I'll never spend another point of HP on a shield under the new system.

I agree that there will be less hp spent on shielding. But it can potentially increase healthpack sell, especially for that amount of grind.

Note: I don't know if D3/Demi are panicking or not. Just stating all the facts.

Vhailorx

Milk:

To a certain extent it doesn't even matter how good SL and Doc actually are.  Go re-reread the release threads.  Both of those characters were received very poorly by the community.  And although there has been a growing "SL isn't THAT bad" movement recently (and I tend to agree, he isn't THAT bad), I think it is borderline crazy to suggest that poorly received 5* launches do not affect d3's revenue stream. 

Cory:

You try telling your shareholders or parent company that you make 100 million last year, but 50 million this year, and everything is totally fine. . .

Dormammu:

I don't think shields are big a revenue source anymore.  HP is much easier to come by than it used to be.  but unless you are on of the few people that buy 10+ shields each event, high level PVP play is generally HP positive.

Vhailorx

D4Ni13 said:

It is clear that you don't know how the economy of a game like MPQ works... you cannot have it without all the players (f2p & buyers alike). Every HP has a value in real money & it doesn't matter where that HP came from when you buy something in game. It just matters that you spend it and roll it in the system (that's why they don't like hoarding by the way). So if I earn 100 HP in game and buy a token, it's the same thing as if you spent money and then bought the same token with your 100 HP. They cannot differentiate my HP from your HP. The only thing that matters is that HP to be on a profit in the system all the time (same concept as the bitcoin if you like).

Of course if you buy a large amount of HP, you will spend more than someone who earns HP, but the idea is that you cannot maintain the economy without every f2p user in the game, because you see buyers spend a lot but in instances, while f2p users generate fewer HP but constantly. It's like having a small salary & a big prime once in a while. You could say that the prime makes a huge difference, but the constant value in your life is actually the salary. You can plan around it because you know it is there all the time, while the prime is something that you can receive or not, so you cannot plan around it.

And as a short anwser, no, they are not panicking. The only ones that are panicking right now are the players impacted by the CP loss (if it will be revealed to be true).

I really don't even know where to begin.  Your first two paragraphs read like they are responding to an entirely different thread.  honestly what are you talking about?  buying HP v. earning HP?  Whales v. f2p? salary v. prime (bonus?)?  none of that really has anything to do with my post. 

And the last paragraph is just a retread of the standard "stop being an entitled millennial!" post that everyone uses to respond to argument they don't like.

D4Ni13

Vhailorx said:

D4Ni13 said:

It is clear that you don't know how the economy of a game like MPQ works... you cannot have it without all the players (f2p & buyers alike). Every HP has a value in real money & it doesn't matter where that HP came from when you buy something in game. It just matters that you spend it and roll it in the system (that's why they don't like hoarding by the way). So if I earn 100 HP in game and buy a token, it's the same thing as if you spent money and then bought the same token with your 100 HP. They cannot differentiate my HP from your HP. The only thing that matters is that HP to be on a profit in the system all the time (same concept as the bitcoin if you like).

Of course if you buy a large amount of HP, you will spend more than someone who earns HP, but the idea is that you cannot maintain the economy without every f2p user in the game, because you see buyers spend a lot but in instances, while f2p users generate fewer HP but constantly. It's like having a small salary & a big prime once in a while. You could say that the prime makes a huge difference, but the constant value in your life is actually the salary. You can plan around it because you know it is there all the time, while the prime is something that you can receive or not, so you cannot plan around it.

And as a short anwser, no, they are not panicking. The only ones that are panicking right now are the players impacted by the CP loss (if it will be revealed to be true).

I really don't even know where to begin.  Your first two paragraphs read like they are responding to an entirely different thread.  honestly what are you talking about?  buying HP v. earning HP?  Whales v. f2p? salary v. prime (bonus?)?  none of that really has anything to do with my post. 

And the last paragraph is just a retread of the standard "stop being an entitled millennial!" post that everyone uses to respond to argument they don't like.

Yes it does. You assume that a company with millions of players are afraid that a handful of users are upset, and you also assume that without buyers this game would die. These are clear signs that you don't understand how the economy of such a game works, because both your assumptions are false. So I explained how the economy works, so you would know that demi/d3 have no reason whatsoever to panic.

And I don't like this topic because it gives me the sensation that you think you are above everyone else. How can you even comprehend that demi would be panicking because of you and few other players ? You are either naive or arrogant to think that you are so important to them... trust me, everyone is replaceable.

moss04

This game may have millions of downloads, but it does not have millions of players.

thedarkphoenix

lol people ask this question every year.

D4Ni13

moss04 said:

This game may have millions of downloads, but it does not have millions of players.

What's your basis when you say that ? You think all the users are here on the forum or on line or discord ? Half of the users may be playing the game on the toilet for passing time and don't even join the forums or other medias. Heck I play since beginning and only joined the forum after second anniversary. If you have some info that backs your theory of fewer users please share it.

moss04

D4Ni13 said:

moss04 said:

This game may have millions of downloads, but it does not have millions of players.

What's your basis when you say that ? You think all the users are here on the forum or on line or discord ? Half of the users may be playing the game on the toilet for passing time and don't even join the forums or other medias. Heck I play since beginning and only joined the forum after second anniversary. If you have some info that back your theory of fewer users please share it.

They pretty much proved it by the extremely low numbers from the valentines day promotion

Vhailorx

D4Ni13 said:

Vhailorx said:

D4Ni13 said:

It is clear that you don't know how the economy of a game like MPQ works... you cannot have it without all the players (f2p & buyers alike). Every HP has a value in real money & it doesn't matter where that HP came from when you buy something in game. It just matters that you spend it and roll it in the system (that's why they don't like hoarding by the way). So if I earn 100 HP in game and buy a token, it's the same thing as if you spent money and then bought the same token with your 100 HP. They cannot differentiate my HP from your HP. The only thing that matters is that HP to be on a profit in the system all the time (same concept as the bitcoin if you like).

Of course if you buy a large amount of HP, you will spend more than someone who earns HP, but the idea is that you cannot maintain the economy without every f2p user in the game, because you see buyers spend a lot but in instances, while f2p users generate fewer HP but constantly. It's like having a small salary & a big prime once in a while. You could say that the prime makes a huge difference, but the constant value in your life is actually the salary. You can plan around it because you know it is there all the time, while the prime is something that you can receive or not, so you cannot plan around it.

And as a short anwser, no, they are not panicking. The only ones that are panicking right now are the players impacted by the CP loss (if it will be revealed to be true).

I really don't even know where to begin.  Your first two paragraphs read like they are responding to an entirely different thread.  honestly what are you talking about?  buying HP v. earning HP?  Whales v. f2p? salary v. prime (bonus?)?  none of that really has anything to do with my post. 

And the last paragraph is just a retread of the standard "stop being an entitled millennial!" post that everyone uses to respond to argument they don't like.

Yes it does. You assume that a company with millions of players are afraid that a handful of users are upset, and you also assume that without buyers this game would die. These are clear signs that you don't understand how the economy of such a game works, because both your assumptions are false. So I explained how the economy works, so you would know that demi/d3 have no reason whatsoever to panic.

And I don't like this topic because it gives me the sensation that you think you are above everyone else. How can you even comprehend that demi would be panicking because of you and few other players ? You are either naive or arrogant to think that you are so important to them... trust me, everyone is replaceable.

I didn't say they were afraid of a handful of users.  I suggested that perhaps they afraid because revenue was down significantly in 2017.  If you don't think that a company like d3 would be concerned about dipping revenue than I don't really think we will agree on anything.  The game WILL die without buyers.  But that's not at all the same thing as saying that the game doesn't need new/f2p/casual players too. 

I feel like i wrote a post suggesting one potential chain of events that might have led to the recent, significant changes in MPQ.  It had nothing to do with me as an individual, or with whales v. seals, or spenders v. f2p, or vets v. new players.  I didn't even suggest any prognosis or advocate for any particular future action on the part of players or demi (at least not in this thread).  It was just a theory as to why demi/d3 might be making some of these most recent changes.

And then you wrote a diatribe telling me that it wasn't about me, that I don't understand anything about the game economy, and that I am arrogant to think that I am so important to MPQ.  ?????  I am honestly quite confused as to how how you can read my original post and come up with that response. 

Vhailorx

D4Ni13 said:

moss04 said:

This game may have millions of downloads, but it does not have millions of players.

What's your basis when you say that ? You think all the users are here on the forum or on line or discord ? Half of the users may be playing the game on the toilet for passing time and don't even join the forums or other medias. Heck I play since beginning and only joined the forum after second anniversary. If you have some info that backs your theory of fewer users please share it.

It is possible to make some rough guesses at active player population.  Nothing too specific.  But we know a few things:

(1) We know the thresholds they set for the valentines event, and we know the final threshold was not met (assuming all the math was straight up)
(2) we know how many alliances participate in boss events.
(3) Many alliance families maintain spreadsheets of PVE bracket flips, which gives us a sense of how many 1k brackets fill per event.

I haven't done a particularly rigorous study of these numbers recently, but as I recall, the best guess is that MPQ has tens of thousands of active players, with some spikes into the hundreds of thousands during high-interest periods (usually special events and movie tie-ins).  There is very little evidence that millions of people play this game on a regular basis. 

D4Ni13

moss04 said:

D4Ni13 said:

moss04 said:

This game may have millions of downloads, but it does not have millions of players.

What's your basis when you say that ? You think all the users are here on the forum or on line or discord ? Half of the users may be playing the game on the toilet for passing time and don't even join the forums or other medias. Heck I play since beginning and only joined the forum after second anniversary. If you have some info that back your theory of fewer users please share it.

They pretty much proved it by the extremely low numbers from the valentines day promotion

IDK what to say. This types of games have a very strong backbone and they are not so easily 'broken'. Their arhitecture is made to be profitable from f2p players only, and buyers are just bonuses and extra profit. 

I really doubt that a game that has a big popularity and is constantly invested in, for 4 years now, would suffer from significantly lower users than downloads. 

I strongly suggest that they have no reason to panic and the recent changes are only their method of balancing stuff (even if the end user see is as a negative change).

I also play Heroes of the Storm from Blizzard. They nerf a hero almost every patch and they are doing constant balancing. MPQ has to do this as well (balancing, not nerfing), not necessarily only for economy or money, but for the overall health of the game.

Milk Jugz

Vhailorx said:

D4Ni13 said:

Vhailorx said:

D4Ni13 said:

It is clear that you don't know how the economy of a game like MPQ works... you cannot have it without all the players (f2p & buyers alike). Every HP has a value in real money & it doesn't matter where that HP came from when you buy something in game. It just matters that you spend it and roll it in the system (that's why they don't like hoarding by the way). So if I earn 100 HP in game and buy a token, it's the same thing as if you spent money and then bought the same token with your 100 HP. They cannot differentiate my HP from your HP. The only thing that matters is that HP to be on a profit in the system all the time (same concept as the bitcoin if you like).

Of course if you buy a large amount of HP, you will spend more than someone who earns HP, but the idea is that you cannot maintain the economy without every f2p user in the game, because you see buyers spend a lot but in instances, while f2p users generate fewer HP but constantly. It's like having a small salary & a big prime once in a while. You could say that the prime makes a huge difference, but the constant value in your life is actually the salary. You can plan around it because you know it is there all the time, while the prime is something that you can receive or not, so you cannot plan around it.

And as a short anwser, no, they are not panicking. The only ones that are panicking right now are the players impacted by the CP loss (if it will be revealed to be true).

I really don't even know where to begin.  Your first two paragraphs read like they are responding to an entirely different thread.  honestly what are you talking about?  buying HP v. earning HP?  Whales v. f2p? salary v. prime (bonus?)?  none of that really has anything to do with my post. 

And the last paragraph is just a retread of the standard "stop being an entitled millennial!" post that everyone uses to respond to argument they don't like.

Yes it does. You assume that a company with millions of players are afraid that a handful of users are upset, and you also assume that without buyers this game would die. These are clear signs that you don't understand how the economy of such a game works, because both your assumptions are false. So I explained how the economy works, so you would know that demi/d3 have no reason whatsoever to panic.

And I don't like this topic because it gives me the sensation that you think you are above everyone else. How can you even comprehend that demi would be panicking because of you and few other players ? You are either naive or arrogant to think that you are so important to them... trust me, everyone is replaceable.

I didn't say they were afraid of a handful of users.  I suggested that perhaps they afraid because revenue was down significantly in 2017.  If you don't think that a company like d3 would be concerned about dipping revenue than I don't really think we will agree on anything.  The game WILL die without buyers.  But that's not at all the same thing as saying that the game doesn't need new/f2p/casual players too. 

I feel like i wrote a post suggesting one potential chain of events that might have led to the recent, significant changes in MPQ.  It had nothing to do with me as an individual, or with whales v. seals, or spenders v. f2p, or vets v. new players.  I didn't even suggest any prognosis or advocate for any particular future action on the part of players or demi (at least not in this thread).  It was just a theory as to why demi/d3 might be making some of these most recent changes.

And then you wrote a diatribe telling me that it wasn't about me, that I don't understand anything about the game economy, and that I am arrogant to think that I am so important to MPQ.  ?????  I am honestly quite confused as to how how you can read my original post and come up with that response. 

Absolutely!!! It doesn't matter how much value is on earned hp compared to bought hp, whether they value it the same or even know the difference between the two. If EVERYONE became f2p the game would die.

D4Ni13

Vhailorx said:

D4Ni13 said:

Vhailorx said:

D4Ni13 said:

It is clear that you don't know how the economy of a game like MPQ works... you cannot have it without all the players (f2p & buyers alike). Every HP has a value in real money & it doesn't matter where that HP came from when you buy something in game. It just matters that you spend it and roll it in the system (that's why they don't like hoarding by the way). So if I earn 100 HP in game and buy a token, it's the same thing as if you spent money and then bought the same token with your 100 HP. They cannot differentiate my HP from your HP. The only thing that matters is that HP to be on a profit in the system all the time (same concept as the bitcoin if you like).

Of course if you buy a large amount of HP, you will spend more than someone who earns HP, but the idea is that you cannot maintain the economy without every f2p user in the game, because you see buyers spend a lot but in instances, while f2p users generate fewer HP but constantly. It's like having a small salary & a big prime once in a while. You could say that the prime makes a huge difference, but the constant value in your life is actually the salary. You can plan around it because you know it is there all the time, while the prime is something that you can receive or not, so you cannot plan around it.

And as a short anwser, no, they are not panicking. The only ones that are panicking right now are the players impacted by the CP loss (if it will be revealed to be true).

I really don't even know where to begin.  Your first two paragraphs read like they are responding to an entirely different thread.  honestly what are you talking about?  buying HP v. earning HP?  Whales v. f2p? salary v. prime (bonus?)?  none of that really has anything to do with my post. 

And the last paragraph is just a retread of the standard "stop being an entitled millennial!" post that everyone uses to respond to argument they don't like.

Yes it does. You assume that a company with millions of players are afraid that a handful of users are upset, and you also assume that without buyers this game would die. These are clear signs that you don't understand how the economy of such a game works, because both your assumptions are false. So I explained how the economy works, so you would know that demi/d3 have no reason whatsoever to panic.

And I don't like this topic because it gives me the sensation that you think you are above everyone else. How can you even comprehend that demi would be panicking because of you and few other players ? You are either naive or arrogant to think that you are so important to them... trust me, everyone is replaceable.

I didn't say they were afraid of a handful of users.  I suggested that perhaps they afraid because revenue was down significantly in 2017.  If you don't think that a company like d3 would be concerned about dipping revenue than I don't really think we will agree on anything.  The game WILL die without buyers.  But that's not at all the same thing as saying that the game doesn't need new/f2p/casual players too. 

I feel like i wrote a post suggesting one potential chain of events that might have led to the recent, significant changes in MPQ.  It had nothing to do with me as an individual, or with whales v. seals, or spenders v. f2p, or vets v. new players.  I didn't even suggest any prognosis or advocate for any particular future action on the part of players or demi (at least not in this thread).  It was just a theory as to why demi/d3 might be making some of these most recent changes.

And then you wrote a diatribe telling me that it wasn't about me, that I don't understand anything about the game economy, and that I am arrogant to think that I am so important to MPQ.  ?????  I am honestly quite confused as to how how you can read my original post and come up with that response. 

First off, the game will not die without buyers. The game is made to have profit with f2p users only. Of course any extra buy is extra profit. And now they probably upped their target because they can, but even in hard times, the game can sustain itself if it has the required number of players. Don't believe me, you can search to see how this actual games work. 

Secondly, lets leave it as it is now. It seems you don't want to understand what I'm saying (and it's fine). But again: the game is not dying, nobody is panicking and if you take the time to understand the tehnical mechanism underneath the game you will actually understand that. 

jgomes32

Tony Foot said:

jgomes32 said:

Not yet, but the game won't make it anniversary 5.

If you are so sure why don't you just give up now. I've seen a few people say this, so bitter about a game change that they would be happy to see their previous game time wasted so they can look smug if they pull the game.

Odd behaviour, do something better with your time as some time in the next 11 months it's all going to be taken away from you.

I will enjoy while it lasts and hope to be wrong.

Vhailorx

Every HP has a value in real money & it doesn't matter where that HP came from when you buy something in game. It just matters that you spend it and roll it in the system (that's why they don't like hoarding by the way). So if I earn 100 HP in game and buy a token, it's the same thing as if you spent money and then bought the same token with your 100 HP. They cannot differentiate my HP from your HP. The only thing that matters is that HP to be on a profit in the system all the time (same concept as the bitcoin if you like).

I completely disagree with this D4Ni,

Demi may have internal metrics that assign real money value to each game activity, and there is a fairly clear exchange rate from real money to HP. 

But HP (and iso) are not true currencies like bitcoin (a cryptocurrency) or dollars (a fiat currency backed by the US government).  There is no finite amount of HP (as is true of bitcoin).  Demi/d3 cannot take excess HP to the bank and turn it into dollars (as is true of bitcoin).  Nor can excess HP be offered as legal tender for goods and services outside of MPQ (as is true of dollars and bitcoin).  The only ways MPQ pays its bills are (1) advertising when there were intercepts, or (2) some players spending real cash on resources.  That's it.  f2p players definitely have value to MPQ because the game needs a large, active community to function properly.  but the value of f2p players cannot ever substitute for the cash that comes in from spenders.