Are Demi and D3 panicking?

Vhailorx

So we all know that demi has made a bunch of very significant changes to the game recently.  Perhaps these changes have all been in development for ages and this is just when happened to roll out. 

But as someone in my alliance family pointed out, what if these changes are a reaction (overreaction?) to a significant change (i.e. drop) in revenue earlier in 2017 that has spooked demi/d3?

Given this hypothesis, let's look at early 2017 and see if there are any changes that might have affected revenue.  I think it's pretty apparent that there are several items that could fit this description

(1) Vaulting
(2) OML nerf
(3) back-to-back bad 5* releases with SL and (especially) Doc Oc


So I think the theory would be that demi made all of those changes for various reasons in early 2017.  But the unintended consequence was a very sharp decline in revenue (some people quit or went f2p over OML, others start hoarding like crazy to avoid bad 5*s and catch up with the current 12 4*s). 

So now d3 is looking at the bottom line for MPQ and panicking over the lost income.  D3 pushes demi to tighten the screws on monetization in a big way.  So we get in fairly quick succession:

(1) 5* essential nodes
(2) no more 1200 cp for 5* transitioners
(3) more 4* covers for the middle class, creating more pressure to spend and save covers
(4) character release events that push us to cover and champ new releases in 10 days or less.

What do people think about this as a hypothesis?  I think there are definitely some holes and plausible alternatives, but I also think the broad strokes are somewhat persuasive. 

Assuming it's true, do people think these changes will result in more spending? or will they push mpq further into a death spiral?  

(Edit for clarity: i dont think that mpq is dying.  If this hypothesis is correct than i woild argue that demi has misdiagnosed the problem. I used the term death sprial to describe a series of negative feedback events, where demi pushes a negative change, then incorrectly diagnoses the problem, and makes a followo-on change that exacerbates the first problem.  Games like this one rarely die outright.  They just fade into obscurity as the hardcore players linger and spend just enough to keep the servers profitable, but with less and less new content.)

broll

No.........

Avalancher

No, they are not panicking. That is your imagination. They are adding fresh changes, and making things more challenging and fun. I love it.

Milk Jugz

Buy clubs still rolling along. I don't agree with your hypothesis here.

On a side note your back to back bad 5* releases??? Have you used Ock?? Now I realize I only have 4 champ 5s and I'm certainly not trying to make a case that he is top tier. However, he is a lot of fun to play, has the best AoE in the game damage wise (the 10 turn cd is, admittedly, hard to protect), and actually pairs very well with Thanos. I use him in Versus with Thanos more than Phoenix or Parker.

Also, I see quite a few people running Starlord, especially during R4G boost weeks (for obvious reasons) and he is a pain too deal with.

The rockett

Fun. Lol. Let's check back on this after the season starts.  Their revenue is down.  The competitive player base for pvp is shrinking.  I do believe their is merit in this thought process.  

aa25

HfH was nerfed due to financial reason.

Vhailorx

aa25 said:

HfH was nerfed due to financial reason.

Ooh, i forgot about h4h.  They definitely pulled back on that system; probably because it was too efficient and prroduced a net loss in cover pack sales.

Milk: of course buy clubs still happen.  I said decline in revenue, not end of revenue.  Do you really think interest in buyclubs didnt drop after the oml nerf.

And SL are Doc Oc are both below average 5*s.  Oc worse than SL. And even assuming, in the end, they are both better than the community felt at release, the community was still very cool on both at release.  Whi do you think produced more revenue for mpq at launch?  Star lord, or gambit?

Bowgentle

You'll notice when they panic - this is when they'll roll out guaranteed 5* covers in progression.

Right now they're still trying to figure out ways to improve revenue flow before pushing that emergency button.

Sm0keyJ0e

Buy clubs went bananas during the anni sale. More than I have ever seen. They could not execute buy clubs fast enough for the demand.

The people that buy in extreme amounts don't really care about the content. They're addicted to buying and chasing the new shiny. They just buy and buy and buy and are auto-added to buy club lists. Some have HP in the millions...

moss04

Vhailorx said:

(2) no more 1200 cp for 5* transitioners

What gives 1200 CP?  I assume the number is a typo, but what was this from?

broll

moss04 said:

Vhailorx said:

(2) no more 1200 cp for 5* transitioners

What gives 1200 CP?  I assume the number is a typo, but what was this from?

Buy clubs...

Vhailorx

Sm0keyJ0e said:

Buy clubs went bananas during the anni sale. More than I have ever seen. They could not execute buy clubs fast enough for the demand.

The people that buy in extreme amounts don't really care about the content. They're addicted to buying and chasing the new shiny. They just buy and buy and buy and are auto-added to buy club lists. Some have HP in the millions...

Yeah, it's almost like gambit was may very strong to push some sales.

Huh. Do you think maybe demi did that in reaction to some prior events that reduced sales? /snark

byc

I think profits are down, so they've been reorganizing.

Signs of death are usually more extreme for the final money grab.

Vhailorx

moss04 said:

Vhailorx said:

(2) no more 1200 cp for 5* transitioners

What gives 1200 CP?  I assume the number is a typo, but what was this from?

The 15 cp available (until next season begins) at 1200 points in each pvp event.

(And for reference, each 1x stark buy club produces 140 cp for each of 20 members)

animaniactoo

I think that they are at a natural problem point for just about any game that involves any sort of grinding or leveling up of resources and ongoing development with no "end" point.

Somewhere around year 2, they start to hit a point where things are becoming too hard for the new players to catch up and too easy to challenge veteran players who have a built base/roster/whatever.

Somewhere around year 3, minor changes to address the issue are proven to not be enough and they hit a crucial point where the differences have become too extreme and major changes need to be made to overcome it and try to continue the livelihood of the game.

Within 5 years I expect this not to be a problem anymore as game devs are starting to catch on to the idea of creating segmented play with different levels of difficulty and different levels of rewards to appropriately manage each end of the userbase. I'm willing to bet that they will start building it in from the beginning within the next few years.

So while of course money and profit are behind all of it, I do not think it is the main motivator vs trying to deliver a game that people WANT to play and are therefore willing to pay for (VIP status or buy club, take your pick).

Plus, while people talk about catering to the whales/buy clubs, any game dev worth their salt knows that in a f2p game with any sort of competitive/social aspect, without having a significant number of f2p and casual players, you don't end up with enough of a community/userbase to make the game worthwhile to the whales. Not enough choice. Sure, you chase those f2p players to make small "microtransaction" investments, even if it's just once. But really, the game can't survive without them even if they don't pay and therefore it's fine if they drop in and out as long as there's always new blood willing to pick up the game. Which requires having a reputation of being fun enough to play for f2p. Therefore, no, I do not think these moves are made to squeeze more money out of people vs trying to course correct the overall playability and longevity of the game.

corytutor

After using him some in pve, ocks not as bad as i thought, but still not a fan. 

SL is surprisingly good and vastly underrated. 

As for d3, they've made 100s of millions. If the only make half of that they're still doing just fine. 

animaniactoo

corytutor said:

After using him some in pve, ocks not as bad as i thought, but still not a fan. 

SL is surprisingly good and vastly underrated. 

As for d3, they've made 100s of millions. If the only make half of that they're still doing just fine. 

Well... depends on what their contract MG is with Disney/Marvel. D/M might be doing just fine. 

Milk Jugz

Vhailorx said:

aa25 said:

HfH was nerfed due to financial reason.

Ooh, i forgot about h4h.  They definitely pulled back on that system; probably because it was too efficient and prroduced a net loss in cover pack sales.

Milk: of course buy clubs still happen.  I said decline in revenue, not end of revenue.  Do you really think interest in buyclubs didnt drop after the oml nerf.

And SL are Doc Oc are both below average 5*s.  Oc worse than SL. And even assuming, in the end, they are both better than the community felt at release, the community was still very cool on both at release.  Whi do you think produced more revenue for mpq at launch?  Star lord, or gambit?

Gambit is very obviously OP. Again, I'm not trying to say that Ock or Starlord are top tier. My point was until you use them how can you say back to back bad releases? I don't think Ock is bad, there will always be a best of and a worst of, but even if he is the worst of that doesn't necessarily make him bad. He has great utility and pairs nicely with Thanos. I enjoy using him and use him over other 5s I have champed. Other 5s that the general consensus is they are better than Ock.

As far as SL goes my only real use of mine, 3/3/2 270, was in his required story. He was fun and I can see him being good, but I try to hold off my judgements until I use them fully covered and leveled.

To your original point, no I don't think d3/demi is panicking. That was my point by saying buy clubs are still rolling. Anyone that has actually seen a buy club room knows that is where the revenue comes from. Not a newbie dropping a stark or two to buy roster spots. I said it in the time gem thread, buy clubs happen 24/7 and are one of the most amazing things I've ever seen. Some of those people spend more every couple days than I have in 2+ years!!

Xenoberyll

Revenue may be dropping but i doubt it’s panic. If it was they’re stupid to ignore their dedicated player base yet again. A lot of game designers that used to ignore their players have changed their minds for the better (ie. dice)

Dormammu

Why would they change PvP to a win-based progression if they were worried about revenue? That's a change that will result in a lot fewer HP expenditures on shielding. I for one know I'll never spend another point of HP on a shield under the new system.

Jarvind

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines