Mes Amis 5* pull percentage [was 25%, now 15%]

mega ghost

I didn't see this until just now, but even the 1:7 rate enticed me so I decided to make one pull and got 5* Gambit and a BH 5* Hawkeye!

ProfessorGumby

mega ghost said:

I didn't see this until just now, but even the 1:7 rate enticed me so I decided to make one pull and got 5* Gambit and a BH 5* Hawkeye!

So a 200% pull rate? "The posted odds must be wrong"!!!

mega ghost

aesthetocyst said:

ProfessorGumby said:

mega ghost said:

I didn't see this until just now, but even the 1:7 rate enticed me so I decided to make one pull and got 5* Gambit and a BH 5* Hawkeye!

So a 200% pull rate? "The posted odds must be wrong"!!!

He means a bonus hero. Still funny tho

Yes! Is BH not the accepted shorthand for Bonus Hero? That was one bit of nomenclature I thought I had down.

mega ghost

Drunk on victory, I decided to take a second pull from the Mes Amis vault and got a 5* Old Man Logan. 2 for 2 ain't bad at all.

DrDevilDinosaur

These things always happen while I'm still asleep and are fixed by the time I get a shot. Still opened against Mes Amis because I was always going to. Managed 3 out of 10 - green PHX, red and black Remy

Dayv

DrDevilDinosaur said:

These things always happen while I'm still asleep and are fixed by the time I get a shot. Still opened against Mes Amis because I was always going to. Managed 3 out of 10 - green PHX, red and black Remy

That's double the average pull rate, not bad at all!

BoyWonder1914

Blew almost 400 CP before I got a 5-star period, thank RnGesus that it happened to be Gambit. 1/4 my ****. 

But then again last time they made this mistake I ripped an insane amount of 5-star pulls, so I guess it was a bit of poetic justice. 

vinsensual

At the time, All we have to go by is that little icon change right? It's just hard for me to think they flip a lever and all the 5* pull rates are gimmicked like that versus a graphical/typographical mistake where 1:7 says 1:4 instead.

Dayv

vinsensual said:

At the time, All we have to go by is that little icon change right? It's just hard for me to think they flip a lever and all the 5* pull rates are gimmicked like that versus a graphical/typographical mistake where 1:7 says 1:4 instead.

People that pulled a large number of the tokens when the incorrect rates have been shown have generally found that the incorrect rates displayed were accurate to the results.  Pulling a few or even a couple handfuls of tokens isn't enough to guarantee your personal results won't be wildly above or below average.

It seems to me that the odds shown in the token information page aren't hand-coded separately from the drop table.  They seem to be calculated from the drop table itself, with a healthy dose of rounding done to make them nice, simple ratios.  The best example of this was when 5* Hawkeye's release tokens had a bugged bonus hero rate, and displayed 1:6 for bonus heroes instead of 1:20 or 1:12, the only intended values that have ever been seen in-game. Several people with very large CP hoards bought many of those tokens, and confirmed a very high rate of bonus heroes on both 4* and 5* drops, consistent with the displayed odds.

(Boring aside about how I think that Hawkeye BH rate happened: As Heroic and Elite tokens feature mostly 2* pulls which aren't bonus-hero eligible, they actually, have a higher BH rate of about 17% on higher tier pulls, calculated to give them an overall rate of about 5% bonus heroes per token.  Mathematically, this 17% rate rounds off to 1:6, the bonus hero rate that was advertised in Hawkeye tokens.  Someone copied the BH rate from the Heroic/Elite tables instead of from other LTs, and it stood both in game and as displayed until it was fixed in a data push.)

tl;dr: If the game displays an abnormal drop rate for a token, it's known to be safe to believe it -- and to act accordingly.

Jarvind

Dayv said:

vinsensual said:

At the time, All we have to go by is that little icon change right? It's just hard for me to think they flip a lever and all the 5* pull rates are gimmicked like that versus a graphical/typographical mistake where 1:7 says 1:4 instead.

(Boring aside about how I think that Hawkeye BH rate happened: As Heroic and Elite tokens feature mostly 2* pulls which aren't bonus-hero eligible, they actually, have a higher BH rate of about 17% on higher tier pulls, calculated to give them an overall rate of about 5% bonus heroes per token.  Mathematically, this 17% rate rounds off to 1:6, the bonus hero rate that was advertised in Hawkeye tokens.  Someone copied the BH rate from the Heroic/Elite tables instead of from other LTs, and it stood both in game and as displayed until it was fixed in a data push.)

tl;dr: If the game displays an abnormal drop rate for a token, it's known to be safe to believe it -- and to act accordingly.

I found this boring aside interesting and informative.

TheHungryPet

Dayv said:

vinsensual said:

At the time, All we have to go by is that little icon change right? It's just hard for me to think they flip a lever and all the 5* pull rates are gimmicked like that versus a graphical/typographical mistake where 1:7 says 1:4 instead.

People that pulled a large number of the tokens when the incorrect rates have been shown have generally found that the incorrect rates displayed were accurate to the results.  Pulling a few or even a couple handfuls of tokens isn't enough to guarantee your personal results won't be wildly above or below average.

It seems to me that the odds shown in the token information page aren't hand-coded separately from the drop table.  They seem to be calculated from the drop table itself, with a healthy dose of rounding done to make them nice, simple ratios.  The best example of this was when 5* Hawkeye's release tokens had a bugged bonus hero rate, and displayed 1:6 for bonus heroes instead of 1:20 or 1:12, the only intended values that have ever been seen in-game. Several people with very large CP hoards bought many of those tokens, and confirmed a very high rate of bonus heroes on both 4* and 5* drops, consistent with the displayed odds.

(Boring aside about how I think that Hawkeye BH rate happened: As Heroic and Elite tokens feature mostly 2* pulls which aren't bonus-hero eligible, they actually, have a higher BH rate of about 17% on higher tier pulls, calculated to give them an overall rate of about 5% bonus heroes per token.  Mathematically, this 17% rate rounds off to 1:6, the bonus hero rate that was advertised in Hawkeye tokens.  Someone copied the BH rate from the Heroic/Elite tables instead of from other LTs, and it stood both in game and as displayed until it was fixed in a data push.)

tl;dr: If the game displays an abnormal drop rate for a token, it's known to be safe to believe it -- and to act accordingly.

Great insights, @Dayv! i pulled 40 Mes Amis tokens and got a total of 12 5* covers which equals 30%. I'm positive that the probability was in fact what was displayed on screen. 

Too lazy to calculate the odds, but first ten pulls yielded 6 5*. Had the probability been in fact been 1:7 versus the 1:4 displayed on screen, the probability for that to happen would be extremely low. That combined with the overall pull rate of 30% backs up Dayv's position.

feraldayor

So, it seems I'm pretty much the only one that got a poor percentage on this. Pulled about 55 tokens and got 7 (I think) 5*s. Tinykitty. 

fmftint

feraldayor said:

So, it seems I'm pretty much the only one that got a poor percentage on this. Pulled about 55 tokens and got 7 (I think) 5*s. Tinykitty. 

Depends when you pulled them,  if you pulled while the rate was 1:4 it's bad,  if you pulled after it was hot fixed to 1:7 you're right on

Vhailorx

DeNappa said:

So, the 'early few' who noticed and decided to spend got a nice unfair advantage again? Nice going.

These days i check the odds absolutely every,time they update or add a new lt store.  Too mamy mistakes in the past to ignore the possibility.

I think i did 6 pulls, 2x gambit covers and only 1 wasted 4* cover too.  Quit while i was ahead.

feraldayor

fmftint said:

feraldayor said:

So, it seems I'm pretty much the only one that got a poor percentage on this. Pulled about 55 tokens and got 7 (I think) 5*s. Tinykitty. 

Depends when you pulled them,  if you pulled while the rate was 1:4 it's bad,  if you pulled after it was hot fixed to 1:7 you're right on

Before. I was the OP for this thread... 

Dragon_Nexus

Jeez, I didn't even *know* the odds were wonky.
But even so, at a 25% chance I still consider myself beyond lucky to get five OMLs in a row. Not to mention they were all usable.

robertbah

It happens twice in a row. They deliberately try to make ppl draw (not hoarding) so when Thor or next big thing comes, you just need to spend money in order to get him.

Dayv

feraldayor said:

So, it seems I'm pretty much the only one that got a poor percentage on this. Pulled about 55 tokens and got 7 (I think) 5*s. Tinykitty. 

Sadly, no matter how good the odds are, somebody's always going to end up with their luck on the wrong end of the bell curve. 

newton999

400 CP spent : 3 OML (each of 1 different color), 1 Gambit and 3 Phénix to finish her.

43,75%. My god !

Quebbster

Did around 20 pulls last night Before the push. I Believe I got five fivestar covers out of it, including two black Gambit covers, so I am happy with the result.