Anniversary Sale, Rogue Cover Store Sale, and X-Men Affiliations *Update (9/28/17)

ProfessorGumby

SeveredSynapse said:

Confirming math in The Hearts of Darkness Store, there is "~1:17" of attaining a 4*
The 4* loot table contains:
(1x) ONLY ONE ROGUE (1x)

Based on the 4* cover sorting in the odds table, I expect you have underestimated the chances assigned to Rogue.

The sort order appears to be percentage, then hero name (looking at how the 1x and 3x covers are sorted). If that is indeed the case, I expect the actual odds of pulling a Rogue are somewhere between the 12x of Mockingbird and the 3x of the other 11 latests... perhaps 6x.

Still, that only ups the chances to 0.4% to pull a Rogue cover from a single HoD token... which makes me feel like buying a lottery ticket, since my first pull from the S.H.I.E.L.D. Training token rewards was a Rogue... 

SeveredSynapse

ProfessorGumby said:

The sort order appears to be percentage, then hero name (looking at how the 1x and 3x covers are sorted).

If that is indeed the case, I expect the actual odds of pulling a Rogue are somewhere between the 12x of Mockingbird and the 3x of the other 11 latest... perhaps 6x.

That is quite an odd assumption... I looked at the order the characters are displayed as a separate issue from how they are numerically distributed.  I haven't kept a keen eye on that... Any data to show it?
PiGeek or ThankYouMr.Data may be able to check if the distribution supports the claim.

I would hope for that to be true, I never made the connection before....

My assumption was that the order the 4* characters are displayed are to put the bait in the top row (Newest character that everyone wants) so that it is upfront and visible... then show the statistically featured (as a second reason to attract buyers.  In this case, kind of a get Mockingbird while she's hot...  Then show the increased odds (latest) 4*s alphabetically... and just scroll through the monotony of alphabetical legacy 4*s for completeness sake.

I thought of packs distributed similar to vaults though scaled larger....
basically a 40x pack would pull from a vault flooded with 2*s... ~25% 3*s ... ~5% 4*s (1/17)... 

in vaults they display the great rewards up front... but that doesn't change your odds in attaining.

I suspected that the 40x-pack just slightly shifts the initial distribution of tiered reward (I think as you have mentioned if we are on the same page)... 40x-pack bonus pulls the distribution from 2* to 4* slightly while leaving 3* the same. 

I don't think there is anywhere near the 6x Rogue distribution you are referring to... but again, I have no way of knowing.

Anyone have simulated pull data to run?


Either way: 0.067% or 6x 0.067% ... still a far cry from the system we had in place.


I suspect the released statement pertained mainly to this initial vault, and that some time in the near future they will run the remaining events as they have historically....

• New Character initial introduction = limited chance
• New Character PvE event, increased chance (vault)
• New Character PvP event, short window of increased odds

The problem is...this model worked reasonably (though severely unfair statistically to the community of players) for the first year or two... but as we have noted routinely... 4 years later, the dilution of characters across the ever expanding 3*, 4* and 5* tier are making the game cause hopelessness and leading to burn-out.

@ProfessorGumby Great point though, I think I did overlook the historical "increased odds" mechanism built to incentivize 40x packs

ProfessorGumby

SeveredSynapse said:

My assumption was that the order the 4* characters are displayed are to put the bait in the top row (Newest character that everyone wants) so that it is upfront and visible... then show the statistically featured (as a second reason to attract buyers.  In this case, kind of a get Mockingbird while she's hot...  Then show the increased odds (latest) 4*s alphabetically... and just scroll through the monotony of alphabetical legacy 4*s for completeness sake.

@SeveredSynapse I don't disagree with you there, but if that were strictly the case, I would think Rogue and Mockingbird would be switched on the odds page (hard-coded). Since they aren't, the database guy in me sees the sort order, leading me to the assumption that the Rogue odds are "between" 12x and 3x... could be 4x, or even 3.1x... I went with 6x due to the 3-6-12 pattern (another "gift" I have).

But even if it were 11.99x, we're only talking a 0.8% chance to pull a Rogue... and I never really paid much attention to the odds previously, so I have no idea if the older method gave folks a better chance per HP spent than the current "sale".

SeveredSynapse

I meant only that the chances were better due to fewer options in the loot table (several new 3*s which dilute odds of 4* drop... and increased 4* pool dilutes odds of a specific 4*)

bluewolf

SeveredSynapse said:

I meant only that the chances were better due to fewer options in the loot table (several new 3*s which dilute odds of 4* drop... and increased 4* pool dilutes odds of a specific 4*)

I tend to give the benefit of the doubt for odds of 2/3/4 staying static or as stated, but each pool is diluted as characters are added.  So adding 3's to Heroics does not decrease the odds of any 4*, it means that when you hit a 3, you have a larger pool of characters you could get.

TetsujinOni

bluewolf said:

SeveredSynapse said:

I meant only that the chances were better due to fewer options in the loot table (several new 3*s which dilute odds of 4* drop... and increased 4* pool dilutes odds of a specific 4*)

I tend to give the benefit of the doubt for odds of 2/3/4 staying static or as stated, but each pool is diluted as characters are added.  So adding 3's to Heroics does not decrease the odds of any 4*, it means that when you hit a 3, you have a larger pool of characters you could get.

This seems more consistent with the draw mechanics. Pick a tier, roll within the tier.

bluewolf

@Brigby    The affiliations tag rolled out - maybe today.  But Mystique didn't get it.  I don't know if Villains aren't supposed to get it.  2* Magneto got it, but not 3*.  Thanks!

sinnerjfl

bluewolf said:

@Brigby    The affiliations tag rolled out - maybe today.  But Mystique didn't get it.  I don't know if Villains aren't supposed to get it.  2* Magneto got it, but not 3*.  Thanks!

Magneto is a special case, the 2* version was when he was "good" for a while, 3* version is the more traditionnal character.

Not sure about Mystique.

MrPanic

Hi folks,

one question in regard of:

Anniversary Sale
(Disclaimer: We are aware of some players not being able to see this sale, and the team is currently investigating this issue. Thank you for your patience and understanding.)

The Anniversary Sale is back, and players are once again able to get increased resources when you make any Iso-8 or Hero Points purchase!


I am one of the players who can't see the sale. So, is it still active, that I can purchase and contact the support to honor me the bonus?

Bowgentle

MrPanic said:

Hi folks,

one question in regard of:

Anniversary Sale
(Disclaimer: We are aware of some players not being able to see this sale, and the team is currently investigating this issue. Thank you for your patience and understanding.)

The Anniversary Sale is back, and players are once again able to get increased resources when you make any Iso-8 or Hero Points purchase!


I am one of the players who can't see the sale. So, is it still active, that I can purchase and contact the support to honor me the bonus?

The sale ended before anniversary started.