Wanted - pack opening data!

Volrak
Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
edited July 2017 in MtGPQ General Discussion
The imminent release of Hour of Devastation (HOU) to mtgpq (planned for some time this week) heralds the mass opening of large quantities of hoarded or freshly purchased packs.  We want your pack opening data!

Last time this happened (at the AKH release), dozens of you entered over ten thousand opened cards.  Your contributions let us pinpoint drop rates more accurately than ever before.  We now know confidently that commons drop at (or very close to) the rate of 11 out of every 20 random cards from normal packs, uncommons at 8 from every 20, rares 1 in 25, and mythics 1 in 100.  And we saw that drop rates don't appear to change across pack types (other than 3-card packs), or card sets.

So given what we've already learned, what use would even more data be?  Well, it can help to answer open questions like:
  • The drop rates above add up to 100% without accounting for masterpieces - which do drop sometimes - so which of those drop rates is overestimated?
  • Do masterpieces drop at 1 in 1000 cards?  1 in 2000?  Something else?
  • Will drop rates change with the HOU release?
  • Are drops within a rarity truly uniformly random?

If you'd like to donate your pack opening data to the community to help answer questions like these, you can enter your cards as you open them in the HOU bulk open [* Edit] tab of octal9's spreadsheet.  Or you can record a video, post it, and someone will enter the data for you.

Happy opening and good luck.

* Edit: Since HOU cards are being released in a separate pack to AKH, there's now a new HOU tab on the spreadsheet with just the HOU cards, which should mean less scrolling during data entry.
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Comments

  • ElfNeedsFood
    ElfNeedsFood Posts: 944 Critical Contributor
    I'll be entering another ~25 packs worth.  It is interesting they still advertise "higher chance of rare" on the Super Packs though...
  • majincob
    majincob Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    I've been live streaming all my non 3 card packs on my YouTube channel (YouTube.com/majincob).

    I don't know if someone has entered all of those yet.  

    I expect to be opening hundreds of packs after the update if they've fixed the pack opening and missing duplicates bugs.
  • Azerack
    Azerack Posts: 501 Critical Contributor
    I've got 600 crystals ready for two premium pack purchases, so I'll put that data in, as well. Happy to help add to the research and great job with the spreadsheet. I know I didn't add my recent Masterpiece pack in there, (1 Masterpiece and 2 Rares in there.. amazing.. ) but if you like I still can. After the initial "onslaught" I thought you may have had enough data.
    If you want continuous pack opening after the initial wave, I'm happy to do so, though.
  • James13
    James13 Posts: 665 Critical Contributor
    Here's 3 premium packs worth.  I think I had pretty good luck.  :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrL4OjyOymw
  • Emanon2000
    Emanon2000 Posts: 156 Tile Toppler
    edited July 2017
    Two HOU Premium Packs + 1 Booster Packs (+3 from story/training) = 60 Cards
    1st pack 2 different Rares (Nimble Obstructionist & Champion of Wits); 2nd pack 2 of the SAME rare (Vizier of the True).

    Total Uncommons between 2 Premium packs = 14 unique (5 duplicates) = 19 Total Uncommons
    Total Commons between 2 Premium packs = 25 unique (2 with 3 dups, 8 with 2 dups) = 37 Commons
  • mournfen
    mournfen Posts: 89 Match Maker
    Opened 1 PP got 1 mythic, 3 rares, 10 uncommons and the rest are common. 

    Rare/mythic : Majestic Myriarch
    Refuse/Cooperate
    Resilient Khenra
    Solemnity 

  • DumasAG
    DumasAG Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
    Opened 1 PP, got 1 rare (the guaranteed), 12 uncommon (3 were identical dupes), rest common. Pretty rough pull. 
    Opened one 400 unobtainium masterpiece, got Angel of Condemnation
  • Rhasget
    Rhasget Posts: 412 Mover and Shaker
    edited July 2017
    Purchased 2 PP and 1 SP (65+2 Guaranteed Rare cards in total)
    38 commons - 18 dupes
    27 Uncommon - 18 dupes
    2 Rare - 1 dupe

    I feel like I might end up in the bottom 1% in the luck chart with those numbers.

    Edit:
    Also bought an Elite Pack and got Wildfire Eternal (Mythic)
  • James13
    James13 Posts: 665 Critical Contributor
    Something bizarre is going on with my luck today.  Hoarded Amonkhet opens:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__LGWJZH5GU
  • Edwardcro
    Edwardcro Posts: 1 Just Dropped In
    3 PP + 1 booster + 1MC(400) + 2MC(120)
    commons: 36 + 19 dupes
    uncommons: 22 +  6 dupes
    rares: 6 + 2 dupes (1 dupe was from PP and 1 was from MC(120))
    mithyc: 2 (1 was from MC(400) - Wildfire Eternal)

    I didn't enter the data in spreadsheet...
  • Abenjes
    Abenjes Posts: 253 Mover and Shaker

    1 premium pack, only the guaranteed rare. (overcome)

    1 elite pack - Armageddon

  • Monkeynutts
    Monkeynutts Posts: 566 Critical Contributor
    edited July 2017
    Bought a Premium pack. Got 2 rares Solemity and Quarry Beetle. My guaranteed Quarry Beetle........

    Thanx 

    //Merged From "New set no changes"
  • mournfen
    mournfen Posts: 89 Match Maker
    Opened two more PPs pack two only the Rare was a dupe of refuse/ cooperate.

    Third PP I recieved No Mercy and Dream stealers. 
  • Outersider
    Outersider Posts: 119 Tile Toppler
    10 Premium packs
    Mythic/Rare/Uncommon/Common
    1/2/8/14
    0/2/11/13
    0/3/10/12
    0/3/9/13
    0/3/11/11
    0/1/11/13
    0/1/7/18
    0/1/8/16
    0/2/10/13
    0/3/8/14


  • Outersider
    Outersider Posts: 119 Tile Toppler
    To recap Mythic rate is 1 out of 250 cards/ 21 Rares / 103 Uncommons and 136 Commons.... seems to be a lot worse than the previous set
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    Outersider said:
    To recap Mythic rate is 1 out of 250 cards/ 21 Rares / 103 Uncommons and 136 Commons.... seems to be a lot worse than the previous set

    I would attempt to explain Variance, but @Volrak should be here any moment now with a bell curve chart to illustrate the point. 
  • Abenjes
    Abenjes Posts: 253 Mover and Shaker
    Outersider said:
    10 Premium packs
    Mythic/Rare/Uncommon/Common
    1/2/8/14
    0/2/11/13
    0/3/10/12
    0/3/9/13
    0/3/11/11
    0/1/11/13
    0/1/7/18
    0/1/8/16
    0/2/10/13
    0/3/8/14



    ouch that blows, sorry mate
  • octal9
    octal9 Posts: 593 Critical Contributor
    Outersider said:
    To recap Mythic rate is 1 out of 250 cards/ 21 Rares / 103 Uncommons and 136 Commons....
    Oooof that's rough.

    But thank you for being the unlucky one for the rest of us!
  • Spiritdark
    Spiritdark Posts: 8 Just Dropped In
    First 3 pack purchased with crystals "High chance for rare".  No rares at all.  2 uncommons and the rest were common.  I'm deleting this app now.  Later folks
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm once again reminded of people who complained their mystic pack contained no mythics. 

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