Dayv said: Chances of opening 51 standard token and getting no 3*: about 30%Chances of opening 40 elite end getting no 3*: about 1 in 100,000. Unlikely but entirely possible.Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*? I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out. About 1 in 25,000?
Dayv said: Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*? I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out. About 1 in 25,000?
aa25 said: Dayv said: Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*? I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out. About 1 in 25,000? Around 0.013% or 1 in 7,500
Platty616 said: Dayv said: Chances of opening 51 standard token and getting no 3*: about 30%Chances of opening 40 elite end getting no 3*: about 1 in 100,000. Unlikely but entirely possible.Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*? I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out. About 1 in 25,000? So basically I'm just THE unluckiest player in this game?
broll said: Platty616 said: Dayv said: Chances of opening 51 standard token and getting no 3*: about 30%Chances of opening 40 elite end getting no 3*: about 1 in 100,000. Unlikely but entirely possible.Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*? I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out. About 1 in 25,000? So basically I'm just THE unluckiest player in this game? Or you did something to really anger RNGsus...
Tombstone said: Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate.
Platty616 said: Tombstone said: Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate. I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team!
Dayv said: Platty616 said: Tombstone said: Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate. I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team! The flippant response: sounds like a good time to roster Cloak and Dagger!The serious, but not very satisfying response: it's entirely possible that your rate of drawing higher tier covers is well within the range of average results, but because you're having bad luck with the specific covers you received you're subconsciously discounting those results as still being bad pulls. It's an extremely common way to look at random results like this, as we tend to accentuate disappointment and discomfort more sharply than good results, unless they are exactly the good results we wanted.The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation. It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try. While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.
broll said: Will they actually do this? I've seen at least 10-12 posts since i started playing with people saying they opened tickets like this and 100% of them said CS refused to do or investigate anything and stated it as policy. Is there any precedent to CS actually acting on such a request?
broll said: Dayv said: Platty616 said: Tombstone said: Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate. I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team! The flippant response: sounds like a good time to roster Cloak and Dagger!The serious, but not very satisfying response: it's entirely possible that your rate of drawing higher tier covers is well within the range of average results, but because you're having bad luck with the specific covers you received you're subconsciously discounting those results as still being bad pulls. It's an extremely common way to look at random results like this, as we tend to accentuate disappointment and discomfort more sharply than good results, unless they are exactly the good results we wanted.The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation. It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try. While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game. Will they actually do this? I've seen at least 10-12 posts since i started playing with people saying they opened tickets like this and 100% of them said CS refused to do or investigate anything and stated it as policy. Is there any precedent to CS actually acting on such a request?
Dayv The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation. It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try. While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.
Platty616 said: Dayv The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation. It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try. While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game. I did email in asking them to look into it, they flat out refused.