Recruit tokens

Platty616

I've just opened 51 standard recruits, got no 3* characters, even though the odds show 1:43 will be 3*, and also opened 40 elite and got 1 3*, again odds show 1:4 will be 3*. Is this another way of trying to get people to spend real money, or has something else changed that I don't know about?

Jaedenkaal

Those are just odds, they're not guarantees. I generally go weeks and weeks without getting a 3* character from a standard token, and then from time to time I'll get two in a row (or nearly so). 

Nightglider1

Odds are per pull. Each token you open has a 1-in-43 chance of being a 3*, not a guarantee that you will get a 3* for every 43 tokens you open.

Platty616

Thanks guys, I get it now. 

Dayv

Chances of opening 51 standard token and getting no 3*: about 30%

Chances of opening 40 elite end getting no 3*: about 1 in 100,000.  Unlikely but entirely possible.

Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*?  I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out.  About 1 in 25,000?

Platty616

Dayv said:

Chances of opening 51 standard token and getting no 3*: about 30%

Chances of opening 40 elite end getting no 3*: about 1 in 100,000.  Unlikely but entirely possible.

Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*?  I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out.  About 1 in 25,000?

So basically I'm just THE unluckiest player in this game?

Jaedenkaal

I don't think that comes even close to the "most unlikely draw sequence" reported here. Sorry

aa25

Dayv said:

Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*?  I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out.  About 1 in 25,000?

Around 0.013% or 1 in 7,500

Dayv

aa25 said:

Dayv said:

Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*?  I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out.  About 1 in 25,000?

Around 0.013% or 1 in 7,500

Thanks... I almost got that answer, but had the decimal point shifted over a couple of extra places in a way that made no sense.

broll

Platty616 said:

Dayv said:

Chances of opening 51 standard token and getting no 3*: about 30%

Chances of opening 40 elite end getting no 3*: about 1 in 100,000.  Unlikely but entirely possible.

Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*?  I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out.  About 1 in 25,000?

So basically I'm just THE unluckiest player in this game?

Or you did something to really anger RNGsus...

Platty616

broll said:

Platty616 said:

Dayv said:

Chances of opening 51 standard token and getting no 3*: about 30%

Chances of opening 40 elite end getting no 3*: about 1 in 100,000.  Unlikely but entirely possible.

Chances of opening 40 elite and getting only one 3*?  I think I need someone who's actually taken a course in probability to work that one out.  About 1 in 25,000?

So basically I'm just THE unluckiest player in this game?

Or you did something to really anger RNGsus...

That could be possible, I have a habit of pissing people off without realising I've done it

Platty616

It's just happened again, 41 standard recruits- no 3*, although I did get 5 3* from 33 elite, still terrible odds.

Tombstone

Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate.

IE: Having opened 1000 Standard Recruit Tokens and having pulled 22 3 Stars prior, thus putting you at a 2.2% pull rate for 3 Stars in Standard tokens. If you were to open 50 Tokens and receive zero 3 Star characters, this would put you at 22/1050 or 2.09% overall for pulling 3 Stars from Standard recruit tokens.

So while the overall rate can drop as you have more undesirable pulls, it can drop by not very much for what can feel like a large number of tokens being opened.

Of course though, the example I used is an instance of a great many tokens. If a new player playing for the first time were to open 100 Standard Tokens and receive only a single 3 Star character, then you could instantly argue that they have a poor drop rate as they went 1/100 or 1% for their token pulls. While this can be true in regards to the player's initial 100 tokens, drop rates can fluctuate as you open more tokens and add more variables to the overall equation. 

Taking the same example as the one we just used, the 1/100 (1%), we're going to add another 50 tokens to the equation. From this batch of tokens, we're going to say that this new player got three 3 star characters from those 50 tokens, putting the player now at 4/150 (2.66-%) for pulling 3 Stars characters from Standard Recruit Tokens. While those odds don't look like much, this player has now gone above the normal average drop rate for pulling 3 Stars from Standard Recruit tokens.

Platty616

Tombstone said:

Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate.

I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team!

Dayv

Platty616 said:

Tombstone said:

Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate.

I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team!

The flippant response: sounds like a good time to roster Cloak and Dagger!

The serious, but not very satisfying response: it's entirely possible that your rate of drawing higher tier covers is well within the range of average results, but because you're having bad luck with the specific covers you received you're subconsciously discounting those results as still being bad pulls.  It's an extremely common way to look at random results like this, as we tend to accentuate disappointment and discomfort more sharply  than good results, unless they are exactly the good results we wanted.

The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation.  It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try.  While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.

broll

Dayv said:

Platty616 said:

Tombstone said:

Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate.

I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team!

The flippant response: sounds like a good time to roster Cloak and Dagger!

The serious, but not very satisfying response: it's entirely possible that your rate of drawing higher tier covers is well within the range of average results, but because you're having bad luck with the specific covers you received you're subconsciously discounting those results as still being bad pulls.  It's an extremely common way to look at random results like this, as we tend to accentuate disappointment and discomfort more sharply  than good results, unless they are exactly the good results we wanted.

The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation.  It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try.  While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.

Will they actually do this?  I've seen at least 10-12 posts since i started playing with people saying they opened tickets like this and 100% of them said CS refused to do or investigate anything and stated it as policy.  Is there any precedent to CS actually acting on such a request?

Dayv

broll said:

Will they actually do this?  I've seen at least 10-12 posts since i started playing with people saying they opened tickets like this and 100% of them said CS refused to do or investigate anything and stated it as policy.  Is there any precedent to CS actually acting on such a request?

I have been told they did in the past, but I have no idea whether they still do, or just what kind of a bad luck streak is enough for them to take action.  It's probably not worth it for anything short of an abysmally long string of bad Legendary Token pulls.  Trying to make a report about bad luck across various tiers of tokens is going to take a lot of careful documentation, just for a start.

It's possible that I suggest this -- at least in part -- as a way to get someone to check the math on their results and discover that bad luck really does tend to get balanced out in the long term.

Platty616

Dayv said:

Platty616 said:

Tombstone said:

Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate.

I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team!

The flippant response: sounds like a good time to roster Cloak and Dagger!

The serious, but not very satisfying response: it's entirely possible that your rate of drawing higher tier covers is well within the range of average results, but because you're having bad luck with the specific covers you received you're subconsciously discounting those results as still being bad pulls.  It's an extremely common way to look at random results like this, as we tend to accentuate disappointment and discomfort more sharply  than good results, unless they are exactly the good results we wanted.

The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation.  It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try.  While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.

I understand where you are coming from, and in some way agree with the points you are making on legendary pulls, but personally I can't help feeling hard done by on the ratio of 2* to 3* on elite covers.
 I could email them and ask for compensation, but I think there is more chance of Batman being added to the game than me getting it.
Anyway, tomorrow (Thursday) is token opening day for me, I'll see what happens, I could end up with all the characters I want and forget this post exists, I won't hold my breath, but it could happen. Thanks for the input dude!

Milk Jugz

broll said:

Dayv said:

Platty616 said:

Tombstone said:

Just as a reminder to all, the displayed odds are per token and are not intended to be a statement that guarantees you will receive a certain rarity. With how probability works, anything and everything can happen even when the odds for one instance is higher than another. There will be good streaks and there will be bad streaks. The laws of probability can be fickle and unpredictable unless you have opened enough tokens to make it so that opening a few bad tokens doesn't even affect your overall pull rate.

I understand that, but in the last 8 weeks I think I've had about 8 useful covers, opening about 90-100 covers at the end of each week (only have a team of 50) so I would say I'm on a dire run of luck, I've had 1 from about 16 4* characters useful to me, never had a bonus 4* pull, have been playing for about 18 months and never had what you could a great run of luck with recruits, I don't even have a single championed 4* character, for instance today I've opened 3 legendary tokens and all 3 were cloak and dagger- a character I don't have in my team!

The flippant response: sounds like a good time to roster Cloak and Dagger!

The serious, but not very satisfying response: it's entirely possible that your rate of drawing higher tier covers is well within the range of average results, but because you're having bad luck with the specific covers you received you're subconsciously discounting those results as still being bad pulls.  It's an extremely common way to look at random results like this, as we tend to accentuate disappointment and discomfort more sharply  than good results, unless they are exactly the good results we wanted.

The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation.  It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try.  While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.

Will they actually do this?  I've seen at least 10-12 posts since i started playing with people saying they opened tickets like this and 100% of them said CS refused to do or investigate anything and stated it as policy.  Is there any precedent to CS actually acting on such a request?

One of my alliance mates went 2/50 on the 5* BP special vault when he was introduced, he opened a ticket and was compensated with 25 CP. Same guy went 0/40 on the 5* Spiderman vault just recently, opened another ticket and was compensated with a 5* Spidey of his choosing. It helps that he complained about his overall 5* LL pull rate and CS fully admitted it was sub 10% for his time in the game

Platty616

Dayv 
The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation.  It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try.  While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.

I did email in asking them to look into it, they flat out refused.

Jaedenkaal

Platty616 said:

Dayv 
The long-shot-suggestion response: if you really believe your draw rates from tokens are so abysmally bad, and especially if you've documented many pulls and done the math over a large set of pulls to show you're right, you could always contact customer support to ask them to verify your numbers and perhaps give you some sort of compensation.  It's not really that likely to work, and even if it does they'll only ever make that kind of exception for you once, but you could try.  While you're at it, tell them to add Longshot to the game.

I did email in asking them to look into it, they flat out refused.

Well, it was clearly a Long Shot.