PvE 4-star Essentials Tracking/Theory

DesertTortoise

JFisch and I on Discord were trying to see if we could recognize any patterns on the way 4-star essentials are distributed and we think we may have cracked the code. Here's a listing of the PvE events that have occured since April when Brigby started providing the cover rewards for events in the sneak peek threads:

• http://tinyurl.com/MPQ4starPvE

Some notes:

• New releases and vaulted essentials seem to follow a similar pattern. 
• New releases provide their 3rd cover as the T100 and T100 alliance placement rewards for their release, 2nd cover is T10 and 1st cover is T5. Their 2nd cover is provided as a progression reward in their essential event and the next time they roll around as an essential it will be their 1st cover.
• There are two different 'orders' of the Token 12 that are essential, I've listed them as 'T12 A' and 'T12 B' on the list. (blue background is for the characters currently in the Token 12)
  
  
  
  
• Since I started tracking, T12A began at Agent Venom and has reached Iron Fist while T12B began at Wasp and will have reached Agent Venom after Strange Sights. T12A is cycling through the 1st cover for each character while T12B is going through their 3rd covers. Next in line for T12A is Cloak & Dagger's yellow cover and next in line for T12B is Medusa's purplecover.
• Vaulted characters seem totally random with random cover allocations.

If I had to guess it looks like we'll get a vaulted character next, then yellow C&D then purple Medusa. Medusa/C&D's covers may switch up since T12A is catching up to the release schedule.This is all barring another 4-star release that would break it up a bit. 

Just wanted to let you guys know what we found. Hope this is helpful. 

TPF Alexis

I had been wondering about this myself. Nice to see that someone is tracking. Definitely interested in updates as you get more data.

Spidurman27

I have a ton of historical data in a sheet - PM if you want it

broll

If they aren't gonna do anything else to relive the vaulting nightmare, at least throw them in here more frequently.  It's getting ridiculous.

Königsmacher

Very interesting stuff. I always wanted to know which rewards come up to plan accordingly for my roster.

You're certainly right with your vaulted character prediction, Mr F. will be the essential after "The Hunt". Would the pattern then be T12A - T12B - vaulted char?

Then the future rewards could look like this:
C&D yellow
Medusa purple (it should be purple because that's the third power)
vaulted char
R&G blue
C4rol green
vaulted char
G4mora red
Riri green
etc.

That's obviously not taking new character releases into account, that will happen inbetween.


And I've got to agree with Broll, we need more vaulted characters in the reward rotation.

DesertTortoise

You're right, it should be Medusa purple not yellow. The pattern you listed is what I expect as well but I think Medusa gets her purple in before C&D gets his yellow in since T12A is getting awfully close to the release. I think it'll reset once it catches up and T12B will be chasing the release cycle. 

Königsmacher

I think it can go both ways with R&G. The wheel spins already so fast for the current twelve, Demi might as well give another R&G cover now, it wouldn't matter much. Or it really is too close to the release cycle and they reset the rotation.

The only problem I see right now is, If they skip the new guardians, we're be back at Gwen. She'll have left the current pool by then, so Bl4de takes her spot. But then the T12A rotation would too close to the T12B rotation (maybe just two weeks apart?)

I still think you're onto something.

DesertTortoise

Right, I think R&G is coming sooner rather than later since we're moving to 'legitimize' the Token 12 faster now which is totally fine. As predicted, T12B is next and it's Medusa's 3rd power purple (as Königsmacher pointed out my typo). Outside of a new release, we should expect C&D's yellow next. 

Königsmacher

And another one hit right on the head! Medusa gets actually two covers (her purple being one of them) and placement reward for the next event is.... C&D!

Brigby's formatting of the anouncement puts C&D's yellow as progression prize (it's always the colour in the middle), but the next event is going to be a Spider-Man themed boss battle. So the pattern holds, but I don't think we'll see the yellow cover as progression reward. I'm sure they're going to use the opportunity to hand out some spider people (Gwen or Miles possibly).

So next in line: Rocket and Groot?

DesertTortoise

R&G blue or Carol green are next for the Token 12 cycles. This boss event may ruin our chance at a C&D yellow in progression since that starts on 7/6/17. We'll have an event between it and 7/13/17's release event so it depends on if everything gets pushed back or the placement event in the boss event overwrites it. Boss events are a bit touchy. 

Jaedenkaal

Yeah boss events tend to skip the scheduled "progression" character and then award the next "placement" character as boss event progression instead.

PresidentDoom2020

now I'm a simple man and have not put as much thought in it as y'all have but wouldn't we still get C&D covers as a progression reward if in this event what they roll out is the highly rumored 5^ Spiderman-related thing?

Jaedenkaal

Boss events typically skip the expected character and provide the next character in the list as "progression" rewards. They then typically have no placement rewards. That character (whoever you earned in boss event progression) is then available again as a progression reward in the next story mission, and the pattern resumes.

That's how it's been up until now, as far as I can remember. Civil War is a bit different because there are two reward paths.

PresidentDoom2020

oh right. okay then. in all honesty I don't really remember much about boss events besides Civil War so I probably assumed they were all the same

PresidentDoom2020

while I know it's not kosher to doublepost I'm going to be boldly gouge

so C4rol is the progression reward for the Sinister Six event. does this mean she's also going to be the featured 4* for the next event? what are the chances of the cover in the rewards for that still being green?

DesertTortoise

That should be the case. Her next in line is her green for a progression reward. 

PresidentDoom2020

now, not to put the carriage ahead of the horse but that is excellent news for me at least

PresidentDoom2020

and time makes fools of us all.

nope, the C4rol cover for the event after Sinister Six will be yellow if the July sneak peek is to be believed

DesertTortoise

That's a bit curious, but definitely happy to learn from it. I can see it being a hiccup from the alliance event but that does break from expectations. 

PresidentDoom2020

it's disappointing because it means I personally will now have to shill out 240CP to champ her unless the RNG gods treat me favorably which is likely not to come to pass

DesertTortoise

Looks like we've got a Vulture release event, followed by The Hulk (on a Monday - Monday!) followed by the re-run of Sinister 6. If I had to guess, they're going to put R&G as the placement reward for Hulk so they can get skipped as a progression reward akin to what happened to C&D. This is total speculation based on precedent and I fear that Riri will be the progression alliance reward for S6 v2. 

This would basically be a repeat of the MrF (vaulted) > Medusa > C&D (T12A) > Carol (T12B) loop we just ran with a Vulture new release thrown in there over another T12B character.