PvE 4-star Essentials Tracking/Theory

JFisch and I on Discord were trying to see if we could recognize any patterns on the way 4-star essentials are distributed and we think we may have cracked the code. Here's a listing of the PvE events that have occured since April when Brigby started providing the cover rewards for events in the sneak peek threads:
Some notes:
Just wanted to let you guys know what we found. Hope this is helpful.
Some notes:
- New releases and vaulted essentials seem to follow a similar pattern.
- New releases provide their 3rd cover as the T100 and T100 alliance placement rewards for their release, 2nd cover is T10 and 1st cover is T5. Their 2nd cover is provided as a progression reward in their essential event and the next time they roll around as an essential it will be their 1st cover.
- There are two different 'orders' of the Token 12 that are essential, I've listed them as 'T12 A' and 'T12 B' on the list. (blue background is for the characters currently in the Token 12)
- Since I started tracking, T12A began at Agent Venom and has reached Iron Fist while T12B began at Wasp and will have reached Agent Venom after Strange Sights. T12A is cycling through the 1st cover for each character while T12B is going through their 3rd covers. Next in line for T12A is Cloak & Dagger's yellow cover and next in line for T12B is Medusa's purplecover.
- Vaulted characters seem totally random with random cover allocations.
Just wanted to let you guys know what we found. Hope this is helpful.
19
Comments
You're certainly right with your vaulted character prediction, Mr F. will be the essential after "The Hunt". Would the pattern then be T12A - T12B - vaulted char?
Then the future rewards could look like this:
C&D yellow
Medusa purple (it should be purple because that's the third power)
vaulted char
R&G blue
C4rol green
vaulted char
G4mora red
Riri green
etc.
That's obviously not taking new character releases into account, that will happen inbetween.
And I've got to agree with Broll, we need more vaulted characters in the reward rotation.
The only problem I see right now is, If they skip the new guardians, we're be back at Gwen. She'll have left the current pool by then, so Bl4de takes her spot. But then the T12A rotation would too close to the T12B rotation (maybe just two weeks apart?)
I still think you're onto something.
Brigby's formatting of the anouncement puts C&D's yellow as progression prize (it's always the colour in the middle), but the next event is going to be a Spider-Man themed boss battle. So the pattern holds, but I don't think we'll see the yellow cover as progression reward. I'm sure they're going to use the opportunity to hand out some spider people (Gwen or Miles possibly).
So next in line: Rocket and Groot?
That's how it's been up until now, as far as I can remember. Civil War is a bit different because there are two reward paths.
so C4rol is the progression reward for the Sinister Six event. does this mean she's also going to be the featured 4* for the next event? what are the chances of the cover in the rewards for that still being green?
nope, the C4rol cover for the event after Sinister Six will be yellow if the July sneak peek is to be believed
This would basically be a repeat of the MrF (vaulted) > Medusa > C&D (T12A) > Carol (T12B) loop we just ran with a Vulture new release thrown in there over another T12B character.