Tokens: luck or timing?

PorkBelly

Just make sure you don't pull at the same time as me because all you will get are bagman & modern hawkeye.

Unknown

soenottelling wrote:

laoahpeh wrote:

Spencer75 wrote:

Is this serious?

Probabilities are listed if you click on the question mark next to the10 pack.

Those are the probabilities. When you open them doesn't matter.

On a related note, please stay away from slot machines. They're designed to prey on the kind of thinking you're demonstrating (oh this machine is due/this machine is hot)

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/pseudora ... _generator
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_seed

..can probably go of those 2 and find any other questions somewhat answered..at the very least by regoogling terms you want more info about.

Very few things use truly random number generation. Also, gambler's fallacy doesn't really apply here, unless I missed (I may have) someone saying that there are specific bad times or if they were talking about expecting better drops the next time since they got bad stuff this time.

Seeds and seed times are a real thing. Coops is about as close to the right answer anybody who posted probably is. Many, especially games, use the internal clocks of computers in such a way that there actually are certain times that match with a winning result. The thing is, they don't repeat in a manner of ohh, 5:01:01:69 every Tuesday 4**** drop. You realistically cannot duplicate winnings based on the internal clock. You can SEE the results though, which is why you feel that sometimes you got a pocket of luck with 3 3*** in a 5 second span...because you kinda did hit a pocket of the PRNG giving winnings.

I don't know how this company specifically does it, and usually its bad business to give away info Such as seeds and what not...but the idea of random is random in basically anything with algorithms is to ignore what an algorithm actually is.

I could delve deep into philosophy and say that there is no such thing as true random at all, but I will keep it in the realm of math and leave the convo there.

Ppl hitch onto a catch phrase like gamblers fallacy or random is random and dont bother to learn the actual way things function or to think about them more inquisically. Humerously, its similar to the idea behind why "random" is even a term. Random is merely a state of order in which we currently cannot predict an outcome as no discernable, generally emperical , pattern exists. Yet is the key word here. The idea of random really states that we jist don't know YET how to consistently receive the outcome. At one time the seasons were considered random. At one time the sides were co.sidered random....the weather....computational codings in relation to many physical events and millions of things more. Now they are not random, because thier patterns were finally discerned. That leaves the idea of random is random as a copout, and a REALLY crazy idea...to assume one already knows all there is to know.

Err...so op. The answer is "maybe" lol...

I'm just referring to the statement where a machine is due or "hot". I agree with most of your points. But given that there is no reasonable means of predicting or calculating the "formula", it should be taken in a layman context.

FYI I don't believe in true random too. In most cases, we just do not know all the variables.

So I'm not just hitching onto the catchphrase.

user311

This morning I had a handful of std tokens to cash in. I thought of this thread for a minute and then cashed em all in. I got all 1 * except for a purple Spiderman. I think its still mostly luck, but i am always nervous everytime I open up the game and there is a moment where you can tell its downloading some kind of update.

BearVenger

Lerysh wrote:

In this case luck and timing are one in the same. If your lucky enough to pull one of the RNGs gold stars then your timing was pretty good. If not then... You can't really change your timing or luck by waiting to cash the token. Whenever you pull it it pulls the randomness you will get, and your either good or not.

So, Lerysh, you're saying the cover is decided when the token is awarded, not redeemed? Does that mean all the peeps who receive their token as an end-of-the event reward are destined to get even-more-than-expected similar results?

Unknown

BearVenger wrote:

Lerysh wrote:

In this case luck and timing are one in the same. If your lucky enough to pull one of the RNGs gold stars then your timing was pretty good. If not then... You can't really change your timing or luck by waiting to cash the token. Whenever you pull it it pulls the randomness you will get, and your either good or not.

So, Lerysh, you're saying the cover is decided when the token is awarded, not redeemed? Does that mean all the peeps who receive their token as an end-of-the event reward are destined to get even-more-than-expected similar results?

There was a thread with the claim the result of token opening is NOT arriving from a server as it should. Instead it's generated on the client and the client tells the server something "it's a black Hulk, honest". What opens a full can of worms for exploits and client-related problens that could have been trivially hangled by proper transaction on the server (which generates the prize there and just announces the fact).

No one yet disproved this claim so it is plausible. The UI with the gray/gold shield even hints it is what happening, the communication with the server starts just after that screen, rather than being done already...

Unknown

It's all about the timing. I can guarantee myself a Bagman pretty much every time.

*smug*

Unknown

user311 wrote:

This morning I had a handful of std tokens to cash in. I thought of this thread for a minute and then cashed em all in. I got all 1 * except for a purple Spiderman. I think its still mostly luck, but i am always nervous everytime I open up the game and there is a moment where you can tell its downloading some kind of update.

I would actually recommend NOT cashing in STD tokens, and get yourself tested just incase. At the very least pop a 3hr shield first.

Unknown

I aggree with you dr.unpleasant just got my 3 bagman in a row..in terms of bagman..just to share i think im getting karma these days for hating daken so much after the hunt (eventhough i got a cover of falcon) because everytime i got a token daken always appear..i have a full max cover of daken and another full cover (lvl 6)..the lvl 6 came from assault, heroic, even in standard token..daken always pop up these days...

Unknown

I could be wrong but I assume any decent prng that uses the clock to generate seeds does it down to several decimal places on the second.

So even if you knew the exact time to generate a seed to get a specific cover pull. You can try to hit April 29th at 4:36:18.5792 but even basic server latency would make that a statistical impossibility.

Who knows the animation for opening a cover is more than a second long so maybe it does only go to the nearest second