Tokens: luck or timing?

Unknown

I just lost a Hunt token to a repeat cover (blue CStorm, but mine is already fully covered), and I'm pretty disappointed because it could have been an OBW or a Mags or MThor or HT or Cap or even a yellow or green Storm.

I couldn't help but wonder if it's luck (is there a value that's attached to the token when you receive it?) or timing (it matters when you redeem the token). Well, this isn't the first time I wondered.

Dormammu

I heard a rumor that if you cash in a heroic token at exactly midnight on the third Thursday of the month it will always give you a blue Spider-Man.

Unknown

Pretty sure it's just luck. Today I cashed in 4 standard tokens in a row, 3 were one stars and one was a 4 star. All the others I've cashed in this week were 1 stars.

Copps

Well I'm sure it has something to do with timing as computers use the clock to generate random numbers. But in such small increments you can't predict them so really luck.

Tl:dr it's both

Unknown

Dormammu wrote:

I heard a rumor that if you cash in a heroic token at exactly midnight on the third Thursday of the month it will always give you a blue Spider-Man.

Oh, I haven't heard that one! The one I heard was that if you lean in close to your device and whisper "crit" three times, you'll get a 2* or better

Unknown

I cashed in one each of standard, heroic and assault tokens all in a row. Purple Bullseye, Purple Bullseye, Blue Bagman.

**** you, RNG. **** you so hard.

Unknown

bahukma wrote:

I cashed in one each of standard, heroic and assault tokens all in a row. Purple Bullseye, Purple Bullseye, Blue Bagman.

tinykitty you, RNG. tinykitty you so hard.

I winced in sympathy. Better luck next time, bud! Maybe your luck is stocking up for like a 4* or something.

Unknown

babblefate wrote:

I winced in sympathy. Better luck next time, bud! Maybe your luck is stocking up for like a 4* or something.

Getting a 4* would be even worst. At least until they add Nick to the pack.

Unknown

Justdangit wrote:

babblefate wrote:

I winced in sympathy. Better luck next time, bud! Maybe your luck is stocking up for like a 4* or something.

Getting a 4* would be even worst. At least until they add Nick to the pack.

How exactly would he help?

Unknown

babblefate wrote:

Dormammu wrote:

I heard a rumor that if you cash in a heroic token at exactly midnight on the third Thursday of the month it will always give you a blue Spider-Man.

Oh, I haven't heard that one! The one I heard was that if you lean in close to your device and whisper "crit" three times, you'll get a 2* or better

Oh I did just purchase some tokens with my extra ISO, and had to try this one. First I got black Venom, but after that next one was yellow Panther! So I gues it works! Oh and also I was only wearing a towel. Maybe thats important too for it to work.

Unknown

Miaomew wrote:

babblefate wrote:

Dormammu wrote:

I heard a rumor that if you cash in a heroic token at exactly midnight on the third Thursday of the month it will always give you a blue Spider-Man.

Oh, I haven't heard that one! The one I heard was that if you lean in close to your device and whisper "crit" three times, you'll get a 2* or better

Oh I did just purchase some tokens with my extra ISO, and had to try this one. First I got black Venom, but after that next one was yellow Panther! So I gues it works! Oh and also I was only wearing a towel. Maybe thats important too for it to work.

You don't have to be wearing the towel, you just have to know where it is.

Unknown

Touché sir, touché.

Unknown

My guess it uses some machine-specific bits what makes some people "lucky" and others sucker. For me the *** drop rate is less than half of reported and expected average on any timeframe you care to consider.

Just for the assult tokens from recent pve, got at least 2 from each sub and some from progression, that is at least 22 tokens: all **. Each individually supposedly have 20% chance to drop ***. The odds of this series is under 1%.

On last PVE I stored the tokens to open the 9 after the end: was really surprized when the very last one actually dropped a daredevil ***.

A fun fact: most of my token ***s came from standard token from (or opened during) lightning rounds.

Unknown

Yeah, I have the same luck with the assault tokens out of 20+ I got a single *** and that wasn't even one of the featured ones.

Unknown

I managed to get a yellow Spider Man when I opened the assault token a little over midnight, which made me sure that time might have had something to do with it, though it's probably all in my mind.

OnesOwnGrief

Got a 4 star Wolvie and a Black HT from assault tokens so far. Was confused when I saw the 4 star graphic. I tend to get a featured character when cashing in exclusive tokens.

Spencer75

Is this serious?

Probabilities are listed if you click on the question mark next to the10 pack.

Those are the probabilities. When you open them doesn't matter.

On a related note, please stay away from slot machines. They're designed to prey on the kind of thinking you're demonstrating (oh this machine is due/this machine is hot)

Unknown

Spencer75 wrote:

Is this serious?

Probabilities are listed if you click on the question mark next to the10 pack.

Those are the probabilities. When you open them doesn't matter.

On a related note, please stay away from slot machines. They're designed to prey on the kind of thinking you're demonstrating (oh this machine is due/this machine is hot)

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Unknown

laoahpeh wrote:

Spencer75 wrote:

Is this serious?

Probabilities are listed if you click on the question mark next to the10 pack.

Those are the probabilities. When you open them doesn't matter.

On a related note, please stay away from slot machines. They're designed to prey on the kind of thinking you're demonstrating (oh this machine is due/this machine is hot)

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/pseudora ... _generator
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_seed

..can probably go of those 2 and find any other questions somewhat answered..at the very least by regoogling terms you want more info about.

Very few things use truly random number generation. Also, gambler's fallacy doesn't really apply here, unless I missed (I may have) someone saying that there are specific bad times or if they were talking about expecting better drops the next time since they got bad stuff this time.

Seeds and seed times are a real thing. Coops is about as close to the right answer anybody who posted probably is. Many, especially games, use the internal clocks of computers in such a way that there actually are certain times that match with a winning result. The thing is, they don't repeat in a manner of ohh, 5:01:01:69 every Tuesday 4**** drop. You realistically cannot duplicate winnings based on the internal clock. You can SEE the results though, which is why you feel that sometimes you got a pocket of luck with 3 3*** in a 5 second span...because you kinda did hit a pocket of the PRNG giving winnings.

I don't know how this company specifically does it, and usually its bad business to give away info Such as seeds and what not...but the idea of random is random in basically anything with algorithms is to ignore what an algorithm actually is.

I could delve deep into philosophy and say that there is no such thing as true random at all, but I will keep it in the realm of math and leave the convo there.

Ppl hitch onto a catch phrase like gamblers fallacy or random is random and dont bother to learn the actual way things function or to think about them more inquisically. Humerously, its similar to the idea behind why "random" is even a term. Random is merely a state of order in which we currently cannot predict an outcome as no discernable, generally emperical , pattern exists. Yet is the key word here. The idea of random really states that we jist don't know YET how to consistently receive the outcome. At one time the seasons were considered random. At one time the sides were co.sidered random....the weather....computational codings in relation to many physical events and millions of things more. Now they are not random, because thier patterns were finally discerned. That leaves the idea of random is random as a copout, and a REALLY crazy idea...to assume one already knows all there is to know.

Err...so op. The answer is "maybe" lol...

Unknown

In this case luck and timing are one in the same. If your lucky enough to pull one of the RNGs gold stars then your timing was pretty good. If not then... You can't really change your timing or luck by waiting to cash the token. Whenever you pull it it pulls the randomness you will get, and your either good or not.

Unknown

this reminds of the fellow walking around with the sign, "The world will end at midnight".

Devout in his convictions until someone asked him, "midnight of which time zone?" Turns out it didn't matter; that hoopy frood knew where his towel was.

I understand the RNG nature of "The Luck of The Draw", but I swear the little gnomes inside my tablet have a twisted sense of humour. After 7 months, I finally get all covers for GSBW from the recent Army of One tourney. and yesterday - I draw TWO GSBW covers from random tokens - just when I no longer need them!

somewhere, there are gnomes laughing at me...