Bonus Hero drop rate: Is it actually 5%?

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Comments

  • DapperChewie
    DapperChewie Posts: 399 Mover and Shaker
    Beer40 said:
    MarkersMake said:
    Beer40 said:
    Yes, it is. Every pull is independent of every other pull. Sorry if I improperly phrased it, but that says 50/50 to me. You either get one or you don't. And then they add a bunch of extra stuff to substantially lower those odds.
    That is not how math works. At all. 

    You should be upset with your high school teachers, not D3. 

    Look, if I roll a 20-sided die and say I'll give you a million dollars if it shows a 20, do you have a 50/50 chance of getting rich?   
    If you give me one chance, then yes, I'm either getting rich or I'm not.

    OK, so you obviously don't know how odds work. 

    Yes, there are two possible outcomes. But that doesn't mean it's a 50/50 chance, or to phrase it differently, that there's a 50% chance of outcome A and an equal 50% chance of outcome B. 

    If you have a 5% chance of winking, it means you also have a 95% chance of NOT winning. This is not 50/50, even odds, 1:2, or anything else along those lines. 

    In 50/50, it means that on average, if you play twice, you will win once. You have a 50% chance of winning. 

    In your example, where you either get rich or don't, the lie are two possibilities.

    1) You get rich, which has a 5% chance of happening, or 1:20, or 1/20, or 5/100.

    2) you don't, which has a 95% chance of happening, or 19/20, or 95/100.

    Just because there are only two possibilities does not mean it's a 50/50 chance.
  • MarkersMake
    MarkersMake Posts: 392 Mover and Shaker
    Beer40 said:
    MarkersMake said:
    Beer40 said:
    Yes, it is. Every pull is independent of every other pull. Sorry if I improperly phrased it, but that says 50/50 to me. You either get one or you don't. And then they add a bunch of extra stuff to substantially lower those odds.
    That is not how math works. At all. 

    You should be upset with your high school teachers, not D3. 

    Look, if I roll a 20-sided die and say I'll give you a million dollars if it shows a 20, do you have a 50/50 chance of getting rich?   
    If you give me one chance, then yes, I'm either getting rich or I'm not.
    OK, I'm sorry but you do not understand math at a fundamental level. 

    I cannot help you. 
  • Borstock
    Borstock Posts: 2,700 Chairperson of the Boards
    jredd said:
    Orion said:
    Also, to be fair, Standard tokens do not have a 5% chance for a bonus hero. Since the odds of getting a 3* from a Standard is a little less than 4%, so are the chances of getting a Bonus Hero.

    So overall, you should expect a slightly lower % when you factor in Standard tokens. Certainly not at the level you've seen though.
    i've literally gotten a bonus hero 90% of the time i've pulled a 3* from a standard.
    No, you haven't. 
  • smkspy
    smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
    I think you baws been trolled lol.
  • scottee
    scottee Posts: 1,610 Chairperson of the Boards
    Or the forum has gotten collectively worse at probabilities over the years. 
  • MarkersMake
    MarkersMake Posts: 392 Mover and Shaker
    Borstock said:
    jredd said:
    Orion said:
    Also, to be fair, Standard tokens do not have a 5% chance for a bonus hero. Since the odds of getting a 3* from a Standard is a little less than 4%, so are the chances of getting a Bonus Hero.

    So overall, you should expect a slightly lower % when you factor in Standard tokens. Certainly not at the level you've seen though.
    i've literally gotten a bonus hero 90% of the time i've pulled a 3* from a standard.
    No, you haven't. 
    Right. It's 100%.
  • Aweberman
    Aweberman Posts: 433 Mover and Shaker
    As I said in my initial post, while I enjoy tracking and fooling around with numbers, I am not strictly speaking a statistics guy, having never taken such a class.  Which is why I appreciated this bit of information:
    Orion said:
    No bonus heroes in 120 pulls is a pretty easy calculation.

    0.95^120 = 0.002 or about 2 in 1000 times. Yeah, so that's rare, but not impossibly small.
    That was exactly one piece of information I was looking for.  (I should have probably thanked you a week ago when you first replied.)  I suppose it stands to reason that in a game with tens of thousands of players, if something would happen one time in a thousand -- which is the rate I'm now approaching -- then it's going to happen many times.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    Aweberman said:
    As I said in my initial post, while I enjoy tracking and fooling around with numbers, I am not strictly speaking a statistics guy, having never taken such a class.  Which is why I appreciated this bit of information:
    Orion said:
    No bonus heroes in 120 pulls is a pretty easy calculation.

    0.95^120 = 0.002 or about 2 in 1000 times. Yeah, so that's rare, but not impossibly small.
    That was exactly one piece of information I was looking for.  (I should have probably thanked you a week ago when you first replied.)  I suppose it stands to reason that in a game with tens of thousands of players, if something would happen one time in a thousand -- which is the rate I'm now approaching -- then it's going to happen many times.

    Yeah, this shouldn't happen often... but it blows to be the one it happens to.
  • Borstock
    Borstock Posts: 2,700 Chairperson of the Boards
    Aweberman said:
    As I said in my initial post, while I enjoy tracking and fooling around with numbers, I am not strictly speaking a statistics guy, having never taken such a class.  Which is why I appreciated this bit of information:
    Orion said:
    No bonus heroes in 120 pulls is a pretty easy calculation.

    0.95^120 = 0.002 or about 2 in 1000 times. Yeah, so that's rare, but not impossibly small.
    That was exactly one piece of information I was looking for.  (I should have probably thanked you a week ago when you first replied.)  I suppose it stands to reason that in a game with tens of thousands of players, if something would happen one time in a thousand -- which is the rate I'm now approaching -- then it's going to happen many times.
    Look at it this way... You're due for a nice correction. Of course, math doesn't work that way, but I prefer to be an optimist. 
  • veny
    veny Posts: 834 Critical Contributor
    edited April 2017
    For reliable statistic, you need much bigger sample than few hundreds of attempts.
    Trust me, RNG is a **** - after selling human torch 2* i am building new one... so far he as 7/2/1. My Prof X has 3/12/4, and my [nope] Goblin has 0/4/0 which funny considering the fact that my 5* Hulk reached 2/6/3 recently (he was added later :D ).

    So yeah, thats the example of RNG and how it may seem "statistically wrong"

    [Moderator note: removed offensive language. -DayvBang]
  • Aweberman
    Aweberman Posts: 433 Mover and Shaker
    Update for April 17:

    Another week ... and a big change in my fortunes.

    On the opening of my 199th Elite token, I finally pulled a Bonus Hero.  And then another on the 20th after that ("right on schedule), and the 7th after that.  

    Meanwhile, my Heroic tokens have gone full-steam into the positive area of statistical anomalies, as the last two weeks have seen 2 in 17 and 2 in 16 -- both significantly higher (in, obviously, a very small sample) than expected.

    For the week, then, my non-standard pull rate for Bonus Heroes was 6.33% (5 out of 79), my highest yet by far; the previous best for a week was 3.41%.

    Note: At this point, I should probably stop posting updates in this thread.  I can't edit the first post since the forum migration, which I would do to inject the additional information of the last couple of weeks.  But I did want to end my updates on a positive note.  I originally posted because I was genuinely starting to suspect that Elite tokens were broken, though that notion was quickly corrected.  And, of course, I'll need more than 1 or 2 good weeks to offset the 3 or 4 bad weeks I had, but it's nice to see that it's possible.

    Though I have now gone 112 Standard tokens with no BH ...
  • Jaedenkaal
    Jaedenkaal Posts: 3,357 Chairperson of the Boards
    Sure, it's only a 1/43 chance. We've all gone hundreds of standard tokens without getting a 3* (and thus a BH). And then sometimes you get 4 3*s from standards in the same week (on the same day, even). 
  • Warbringa
    Warbringa Posts: 1,299 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2017
    For 3* pulls yes, I have nabbed around that consistent rate of 5%.  My 4* pulls have been terrible.  I have opened well over 50 tokens heroic/classic/legendary/event and only received one 4* bonus hero since the feature has started and that was the first day.  It ended up being a duplicate cover as it was the wrong color (since changed my bonus heroes to favor characters without a cover at 5 if possible). I have received many 4* covers from the tokens but the ridiculous lack of bonus heroes from 4* up means I must be statistically cursed like the OP.  No 5* bonus cover either of course but I have probably only got 6 or 7 5* covers in that time too, so I understand not getting bonus heroes there.   I know my bonus hero pull rate is well under 2% for 4* covers..... which is killing me because most of my 4* near to completion are of course the older ones who are now vaulted.

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