Bonus Hero drop rate: Is it actually 5%?

MarkersMake

Aweberman said:

Update for 10 April:

<snip>

(Please note that I would have edited my first post to indicate that I was providing new information, but apparently that isn't allowed anymore.)

Hey Aweberman - I'm not sure if there's anything that's user-specific, but I did find the edit button. On mobile, at least (I haven't posted from PC yet). All of your posts should have a little dark grey gear icon in the top right corner. Tap that, and an edit button will appear at the bottom of the page. Once you click that, you have 1 hour to complete your edit. 

As far as I can tell, there is no edit limit - at least, it's letting me do it multiple times to any of my posts. 

Hope that helps! 

Beer40

If you listen to what we are told then the Bonus Hero rate is actually 50%. Wait, don't push the LOL button yet, hear me out! I won't quote them, because I'm not going to look for the quote, but we've been told something along the lines of each pull is its own pull, with its own chance for a Bonus Hero, and no previous or future pulls affect this pull. That is what we are told. That is a straight 50/50 shot every pull. But, that's only true for Latest and Classics, where every pull gives a character that can be a Bonus Hero. In the packs with 2* and/or 1* you have to immediately lower those odds and do it substantially. 

And its not really true at all because:

They had to do a bunch of extra stuff to lower that 50% chance down to 5% and they're not telling us what that is, and since we don't really know, and it is virtually impossible for us to track their numbers...decide for yourself. Are your Bonus Heroes at 5%? More? Less? I know my 5* Bonus Heroes are at 0%, my 4* Bonus Heroes are at 0%, and I occasionally get 3* Bonus Heroes, and am not sure of that number. 5% sounds reasonable. 1 out of every 20? Sure, maybe.

Oh oh, I forgot where I was going with this but circled back! This fits in the "Do we trust them?" post. If you trust them then yea, its 5%. If you don't then no, its not.

MarkersMake

Beer40 said:

If you listen to what we are told then the Bonus Hero rate is actually 50%. Wait, don't push the LOL button yet, hear me out! I won't quote them, because I'm not going to look for the quote, but we've been told something along the lines of each pull is its own pull, with its own chance for a Bonus Hero, and no previous or future pulls affect this pull. That is what we are told. That is a straight 50/50 shot every pull. But, that's only true for Latest and Classics, where every pull gives a character that can be a Bonus Hero. In the packs with 2* and/or 1* you have to immediately lower those odds and do it substantially. 

And its not really true at all because:

They had to do a bunch of extra stuff to lower that 50% chance down to 5% and they're not telling us what that is, and since we don't really know, and it is virtually impossible for us to track their numbers...decide for yourself. Are your Bonus Heroes at 5%? More? Less? I know my 5* Bonus Heroes are at 0%, my 4* Bonus Heroes are at 0%, and I occasionally get 3* Bonus Heroes, and am not sure of that number. 5% sounds reasonable. 1 out of every 20? Sure, maybe.

Oh oh, I forgot where I was going with this but circled back! This fits in the "Do we trust them?" post. If you trust them then yea, its 5%. If you don't then no, its not.

That's not what they said. At all. 

Furthermore, they did tell us exactly what they did to get the 5% rate on Heroic tokens. It's actually in the very first post by Brigby about the Bonus Heroes (look for the quote from Anthony at Demiurge). 

Finally, the tokens that give you 1*s (standard tokens) give you a Bonus Hero every time you pull a 3*. Again, this was all clearly explained. 

Beer40

MarkersMake said:

Beer40 said:

If you listen to what we are told then the Bonus Hero rate is actually 50%. Wait, don't push the LOL button yet, hear me out! I won't quote them, because I'm not going to look for the quote, but we've been told something along the lines of each pull is its own pull, with its own chance for a Bonus Hero, and no previous or future pulls affect this pull. That is what we are told. That is a straight 50/50 shot every pull. But, that's only true for Latest and Classics, where every pull gives a character that can be a Bonus Hero. In the packs with 2* and/or 1* you have to immediately lower those odds and do it substantially. 

And its not really true at all because:

They had to do a bunch of extra stuff to lower that 50% chance down to 5% and they're not telling us what that is, and since we don't really know, and it is virtually impossible for us to track their numbers...decide for yourself. Are your Bonus Heroes at 5%? More? Less? I know my 5* Bonus Heroes are at 0%, my 4* Bonus Heroes are at 0%, and I occasionally get 3* Bonus Heroes, and am not sure of that number. 5% sounds reasonable. 1 out of every 20? Sure, maybe.

Oh oh, I forgot where I was going with this but circled back! This fits in the "Do we trust them?" post. If you trust them then yea, its 5%. If you don't then no, its not.

That's not what they said. At all. 

Yes, it is. Every pull is independent of every other pull. Sorry if I improperly phrased it, but that says 50/50 to me. You either get one or you don't. And then they add a bunch of extra stuff to substantially lower those odds.

MarkersMake

Beer40 said:

Yes, it is. Every pull is independent of every other pull. Sorry if I improperly phrased it, but that says 50/50 to me. You either get one or you don't. And then they add a bunch of extra stuff to substantially lower those odds.

That is not how math works. At all. 

You should be upset with your high school teachers, not D3. 

Look, if I roll a 20-sided die and say I'll give you a million dollars if it shows a 20, do you have a 50/50 chance of getting rich? 

Beer40

MarkersMake said:

Beer40 said:

Yes, it is. Every pull is independent of every other pull. Sorry if I improperly phrased it, but that says 50/50 to me. You either get one or you don't. And then they add a bunch of extra stuff to substantially lower those odds.

That is not how math works. At all. 

You should be upset with your high school teachers, not D3. 

I'm not upset with anyone. Help me out on this, using Classic Legends (an example). 100% of characters have a Bonus Hero chance. Each pull is independent of every other pull. So you pull a token. 50/50 shot for a Bonus Hero. What is the formula to take it down to 5%? 

MarkersMake

OK, you are confusing the fact that there are 2 possibilities (bonus hero / no bonus hero) with the odds of those outcomes. Two possibilities does not mean 50/50 odds.  

Stop using that phrase, as you are only confusing yourself. 

It's literally as simple as this: when you pull your (Classic Legends) token, the game chooses a random number between 1 and 20.

If it's a 20, you get a bonus hero (1 out of 20 is 5%). If it's any other number, you do not get a bonus hero. 

Obviously, if you pulled a 4*, it'll be a 4* Bonus Hero, and if you pulled a 5*, it'll be a 5* BH. 

(edited a few times for clarity) 

EDIT - I can see it in your eyes: you are going to get hung up on "why a number between 1 and 20? What's so special about 20?"

So instead, let's say it picks a random number between 1 and 100. If the number is 1,2,3,4, or 5, then you get a bonus hero. If it is any number between 6 and 100, then you don't get a bonus hero. 

smkspy

1/20 and every pull is a reset. Which is why so many people have terrible luck and few have really good luck. Double 5 star levels of frustration guaranteed for all.

DapperChewie

On that D20 note, if you've ever played D&D, you'll have a better understanding of how it works. Sometimes you'll get real lucky and get 3 crits in one fight, but sometimes you'll go like 6 sessions without ever rolling a 20.

It happens. It's how random chance works - there are no guarantees of anything. So it is statistically possible (however unlikely) to pull 5000 LTs and get zero bonus tokens. 

Some people have **** luck but one person's unlucky experience does not mean the system isn't working as intended. If you look at the actual data, and by that I mean a spreadsheet of every pull done by every player since bonus heroes were implemented, I would imagine that the bonus pull rate is somewhere around 5%.

smkspy

Which is true, but paying customers don't care about spreadsheets. They care about what is happening in front of them. I don't give two shots if it is working as intended overall. If it isn't working for me, then the system, a system sold me as a customer has a more QOL improvement, is broken.

Everything else is noise and I'm less likely to spend money on the game, which is the game's main purpose for existing. 

(Not really me, in the above)

MarkersMake

True - a "streak-buster" feature would go a long way toward reducing hard feelings on the players' parts. Then, the RNG might not give you the cover you want, but at least it wouldn't shun you entirely for weeks on end. 

DapperChewie

smkspy said:

Which is true, but paying customers don't care about spreadsheets. They care about what is happening in front of them. I don't give two shots if it is working as intended overall. If it isn't working for me, then the system, a system sold me as a customer has a more QOL improvement, is broken.

Everything else is noise and I'm less likely to spend money on the game, which is the game's main purpose for existing. 

(Not really me, in the above)

Which is exactly why they should implement a tracking mechanism to give you (slightly) incrementally higher chances of bonus heroes on your next draw for every time you don't draw one. Kind of like how Overwatch works with their loot boxes. 

So think of it this way. Your first 20 draws have the straight 5% chance. If you don't get one, your 21st goes up to 5.5% or 6%. Your next draw is 6 or 7%. And it keeps going up until you get a bonus draw, where it resets and you start the process again. 

Nothing drastic, but it keeps the rates around where they should be and guarantees (almost) that people will get them with a sense of regularity. 

smkspy

Yeah, streak buster or increased odds per pull would go a long way for those not getting BH. Honestly, it's something they could apply to 5 stars and heroic tokens too.

Dayv

GrumpySmurf1002 said:

Of note, not that it fixes your pulls on other tokens, but Standard tokens do not operate at 5%. It's whatever the 3* rate is for those tokens, which is roughly 2%.

So if you're grouping those together, then your baseline isn't 5, it's going to be lower than that.

Absolutely true.  And standard tokens fall in pretty good quantity, even at higher Clearance Levels, so just for a gut feeling of the numbers, 2.8% doesn't sound bad at all for a combined average.

Borstock

I haven't kept track, but my 3* bonus cover drop rate has been decidedly solid. My 4* bh rate was insane early, and I got every Iceman cover I needed to champ him almost immediately, but it has slowed way down since. I chalk it up to the law of averages catching up to me. 

Beer40

MarkersMake said:

Beer40 said:

Yes, it is. Every pull is independent of every other pull. Sorry if I improperly phrased it, but that says 50/50 to me. You either get one or you don't. And then they add a bunch of extra stuff to substantially lower those odds.

That is not how math works. At all. 

You should be upset with your high school teachers, not D3. 

Look, if I roll a 20-sided die and say I'll give you a million dollars if it shows a 20, do you have a 50/50 chance of getting rich?   

If you give me one chance, then yes, I'm either getting rich or I'm not.

jredd

Orion said:

Also, to be fair, Standard tokens do not have a 5% chance for a bonus hero. Since the odds of getting a 3* from a Standard is a little less than 4%, so are the chances of getting a Bonus Hero.

So overall, you should expect a slightly lower % when you factor in Standard tokens. Certainly not at the level you've seen though.

i've literally gotten a bonus hero 90% of the time i've pulled a 3* from a standard.

Phumade

LOL I got a story to tell you about a cat named schrodinger.

MaxxPowerz

Jamie Madrox said:

The odds listed are not guaranteed. It's a 5% chance on every pull, not a guaranteed l.p.5% overall. Statistically there are going to be some people that get better than advertised odds, and some that get worse than advertised odds. Theoretically, over time, you'll even out and be at or near 5%. Unfortunately that time could be a few days or a few years. Welcome to the wonderful world of statistics and random number generation.

It's amazing how many people's misconceptions boil down to this very point.

Whether it be 1 pull or 100, the odds will always be 5%.

With the odds being so slim it's most likely that you will be experiencing a dry spell that can quickly be offset by a few lucky pulls. 

SO far I've gotten 7-8 4* bonus pulls that have allowed me to champ Kate Bishop, Quake and Nova which I otherwise would not have not been able to do seeing as how they've been cycled out. No complaints here.

Nightglider1

Phumade said:

LOL I got a story to tell you about a cat named schrodinger.

Schrödinger was the man. I don't know if the cat had a name. Probably "Mister Fluffy" or something.