Drop Rates

cwashley

I have been playing since September and am missing a lot of the mythic cards which a lot of people use to make the last jump in competition for PvP events - Olivia, Decimator of Provinces, Deploy the Gatewatch, Ulvenwald Hydra, etc. I am in a top 15 coalition and am very competitive, so have been willing to spend money to get better.

I bought a 3000 pack of gems this morning for 100 dollars, and with the gems I had saved up bought 11 Premium packs of SOI.

I got zero mythic cards.

Not zero NEW mythic cards, ZERO mythics. And of the rare cards I got, I had multiple duplicates of the same card.

I own all planeswalkers, and they are all at level 60 - I no longer have any use for runes.

This game's economy is broken, spending money on this game cant even get you ahead and the customer support is down-right insulting.

Jaff

I bought the offer 2 Premium Packs of KLD/AER, 1 SOI, 1 OGW. I got only 2 rare cards.

I opened about 50 KLD boosters, and 1 mythic, not useful. This drop rate is ridiculous.
It need to be revised.

Steeme

I'm ashamed to say I also pulled the lever of the slot machine on 3 premium SOI packs this morning with extra crystals. Not a single new card. Only reason I tried is because I looked through the list and there are quite a few key cards that I'm missing, including rares. I couldn't believe I proc'd two Impetuous Devils, considering I got it as an event progression reward. My guaranteed rare from one pack was Westvale Abbey.

cwashley

Steeme wrote:

I'm ashamed to say I also pulled the lever of the slot machine on 3 premium SOI packs this morning with extra crystals. Not a single new card. Only reason I tried is because I looked through the list and there are quite a few key cards that I'm missing, including rares. I couldn't believe I proc'd two Impetuous Devils, considering I got it as an event progression reward. My guaranteed rare from one pack was Westvale Abbey.

I got 2 impetuous devils this morning when I opened my packs, and three drowyard temples. I think they honestly have a timing thing for when cards drop, its ridiculous and/or deceitful programing.

Infested

The rates are bad. The dupe system is bad. The best choice is to horde crystals until the new set is out or at least until they patch this last update. No point in throwing money away now.

Amadeus

Just opened 2 SOI boxes, 1 mythic, 7 rare cards. all dups except 2 new rares

Brigby

Infested wrote:

The rates are bad. The dupe system is bad. The best choice is to horde crystals until the new set is out or at least until they patch this last update. No point in throwing money away now.

(Disclaimer: I do not possess knowledge of drop rates, therefore please consider this post merely a contribution to the conversation as a player)

I'd like to briefly address the flip-side with some hypothetical scenarios, if you wouldn't mind.

Edit: Just to clarify that I am purposefully playing [insert-religious-entity]'s advocate simply to invoke further discussion, and encourage alternate perspectives. I am not intentionally trying to come off as pessimistic, and I apologize if anyone took offense to it.

The rates are bad: If the rates were increased to be noticeably better, then wouldn't that just lead to more duplicates?

The dupe system is bad: (Breaking character for a bit) We agree that getting a duplicate is a frustrating experience, so as we've said previously, the development team is working on a system that will allow you to use those duplicates to acquire the cards you don't own yet. This should be available within the next several months, as there are several other major features lined up just a step ahead of it: deck slots, for example.

(Ok. Back in character) Isn't getting duplicates just the natural ceiling that having an inherently large card collection comes with? In addition, what would happen if someone doesn't get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

[Bonus] Tell us the drop rates: What would be the reaction if the drop rates were actually published? Wouldn't the perception of drop rates being bad still remain, regardless of if you knew the rates or not?

Here is my anticipation of reactions

Drop Rates Better Than Perception: Players either go into denial, are upset by their personal bad luck, or some might accept that the drop rates aren't as bad as they feel. Drop Rates Equal To Perception: Players are upset that the actual drop rates fit into the negative perception of it. Drop Rates Are Worse Than Perception: Players are furious that the drop rates are actually lower than players thought it to be, although some might be glad it's lower since they would have received more cards than they were supposed to.

Thank you for allowing me a moment to present these flip-side questions. I look forward to hearing your thoughts, and having a constructive conversation to better understand the perspective of players, and how to address the situation.

shteev

Brigby wrote:

The rates are bad: If the rates were increased to be noticeably better, then wouldn't that just lead to more duplicates?

Are you being serious?

As a reason for not giving us more new stuff, you are citing 'because we might accidentally give you more old stuff as well'?

Matthew

shteev wrote:

Brigby wrote:

The rates are bad: If the rates were increased to be noticeably better, then wouldn't that just lead to more duplicates?

Are you being serious?

As a reason for not giving us more new stuff, you are citing 'because we might accidentally give you more old stuff as well'?

Let's all calm down for a second here and take a moment to appreciate the fact that Brigby has come here for an actual discussion. Furthermore, he said the following in his post:

Brigby wrote:

[T]he development team is working on a system that will allow you to use those duplicates to acquire the cards you don't own yet.

That's pretty freaking huge. Given his (probably overcautious) past comment history, saying things like "We don't want to tell you something is coming until we can say for sure that it's coming", I am actually very excited about this. It's the first thing I've seen in a long time that has actually made me feel validated as a player and a customer. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt here and wait to see what they come up with.

Of course, I'm fully cognizant of the fact that it could end up being just a giant letdown. But I guess we'll have to just wait and see.

losdamianos

Steeme wrote:

Not a single new card.

What does it even mean ????

I dont understand why anyone is moaning about duplicates in a first place, but when You do, can you provide just a little bit of background ???

I do have all KLD rares, am I still allowed to complain about duplicates ?

Is it because most of players doesnt understand basic rules of probability and expect not getting any duplicates regardless whether they have 0% of current set card pool or 99% ?

kauppila

A couple places where an immediate change could be made.

First: No Dupe cards within a single pack. I have probably a dozen times gotten the exact same Common or Uncommon within a single pack of 5 cards. Doesn't need to happen, shouldn't happen. If it happens, please just re-roll the card.

Second: Remove all the basic commons that come with all of the basic PWs from the card selection. If everyone has them and they are guaranteed to be dupes, then just don't hand them out any more.

Third: The Masterpiece Collection (Legendary Packs, etc) should have a MUCH higher drop rate on cards that we do NOT own. We are paying a premium price, please respect that and give us a better experience.

Fourth: Ditto for any of the White/Blue/Red color packs or any other packs where someone is spending actual $ for the packs. Respect them for that and make it a premium experience.

Fifth: For prizes for events... Instead of a Guaranteed AER or KLD Rare or Mythic, give the user the option to choose the set that they want to pull from. I know I am missing a dozen rares in Origins and BfZ, but being in Platinum, those rarely come up as prizes any more. I would love the chance to pull something other than a guaranteed AER Rare dupe (since I have all of the non-exclusive Rares already).

And why did we stop getting AER Mythics anyways? Oh, so that I could get a prize that is 1/50th of a Mythic/Masterpiece pack (card). Not a good exchange rate.

---Kauppila

madwren

Brigby wrote:

The rates are bad: If the rates were increased to be noticeably better, then wouldn't that just lead to more duplicates?

People want new cards. Previously, the duplicate rate was tolerable on some level because you could attain them at a frequency that eventually meant you’d get new ones. A drop rate of 10% is vastly different if you’re earning 20 mythics a month or 5 mythics a month. The former results in many more duplicates, but it’s ok, because you’re getting new cards.

See, that’s key. People are not excited by getting duplicates. They are disappointed. Even though they’re always thrilled to open new things, the sheer number of disappointing experiences adds up. It creates a resentful and cynical userbase that has only been exacerbated by the drastic reduction in available mythics. I think the devs fail to understand a fundamental component of Magic: the Gathering: It is collectible. Many players want—and expect—to eventually procure all the cards they want in sets. By moving the goalposts further away and making this an impossibility , they’re undercutting the very reason that many people play. MTG is a game of novelty and creation. Playing the same events with the same objectives over and over again is tedious. It’s boring. What mitigates that? Novelty. New cards. New decks. New ideas being implemented.

Please realize, however, that “I’m upset with dupes” is simply another way of saying “I didn’t get anything new or fun to play with.” Maybe we should call it the “boredom rate” or the “no new card rate” or something, because focusing on the "duplicate" sort of undersells what the problem is.

Brigby wrote:

the development team is working on a system that will allow you to use those duplicates to acquire the cards you don't own yet. This should be available within the next several months, as there are several other major features lined up just a step ahead of it: deck slots, for example.

At the current rate, many of us will not be here in the next several months. I’m glad they’re working on things. We all are. That doesn’t have any relevance to the dissatisfaction experienced since the last update that’s resulted from making cards harder to attain, because it just reinforces that we have many more months of snow to shovel.

Brigby wrote:

(Ok. Back in character) Isn't getting duplicates just the natural ceiling that having an inherently large card collection comes with? In addition, what would happen if someone doesn't get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

Sure. Everyone realizes that eventually it’s hard to get those final mythics or rares. I’m still missing Rattlechains and Anguished Unmaking, for example, despite tons of opportunities. It happens.

However, this fear of “we’re bored because we have all the cards” is somewhat misplaced. This is where having dynamic events with rotating objectives/colors/planeswalkers is valuable, instead of simply running the same ones over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and ..... previously, we were able to earn enough crystals and high rarity cards to remain engaged and satisfied. Now that income has been slashed precipitously, there’s nothing to overcome the tedium of repetition. It isn't worth the time expenditure, which leads people to do other things with their time, or in my case, to spend the money I would have spent on d3go on other mobile games like Fire Emblem Heroes.

Earning crystals and mythics was akin to earning a lottery ticket. Yes, those of us at the high end get a lot more duplicates because we have large collections, but at least we got to pull the lever. Now, we don't get to pull the lever.

Brigby wrote:

What would be the reaction if the drop rates were actually published? Wouldn't the perception of drop rates being bad still remain, regardless of if you knew the rates or not?

Knowledge is always preferable to ignorance (or deception, for that matter). Having played games in which the drop rate is public, I see a lot less negativity. Sure, there’s a lot of “woe is me”, but guess what? The target isn’t the devs, it isn’t the game itself, it’s that nebulous entity known as luck. By giving people a realistic breakdown of their chances, it results in security. Comfort. It doesn’t result in them saying, “You told us fewer dupes and I spent $100 and now you can go tinykitty yourself because you lied and I’m never spending here again.” Transparency is a positive, as long as there's no deception involved.

Infested

Brigby wrote:

Infested wrote:

The rates are bad. The dupe system is bad. The best choice is to horde crystals until the new set is out or at least until they patch this last update. No point in throwing money away now.

(Disclaimer: I do not possess knowledge of drop rates, therefore please consider this post merely a contribution to the conversation as a player)

I'd like to briefly address the flip-side with some hypothetical scenarios, if you wouldn't mind.

The rates are bad: If the rates were increased to be noticeably better, then wouldn't that just lead to more duplicates?

The dupe system is bad: (Breaking character for a bit) We agree that getting a duplicate is a frustrating experience, so as we've said previously, the development team is working on a system that will allow you to use those duplicates to acquire the cards you don't own yet. This should be available within the next several months, as there are several other major features lined up just a step ahead of it: deck slots, for example.

(Ok. Back in character) Isn't getting duplicates just the natural ceiling that having an inherently large card collection comes with? In addition, what would happen if someone doesn't get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

[Bonus] Tell us the drop rates: What would be the reaction if the drop rates were actually published? Wouldn't the perception of drop rates being bad still remain, regardless of if you knew the rates or not?

Here is my anticipation of reactions

Drop Rates Better Than Perception: Players either go into denial, are upset by their personal bad luck, or some might accept that the drop rates aren't as bad as they feel. Drop Rates Equal To Perception: Players are upset that the actual drop rates fit into the negative perception of it. Drop Rates Are Worse Than Perception: Players are furious that the drop rates are actually lower than players thought it to be, although some might be glad it's lower since they would have received more cards than they were supposed to.

Thank you for allowing me a moment to present these flip-side questions. I look forward to hearing your thoughts, and having a constructive conversation to better understand the perspective of players, and how to address the situation.

I agree that dupes happen in a card collection game like this; however if we are making that comparison then I should see some value from my dupes. In MTG the card game I can trade my dupes for other cards and gain value or I can sell them. Heck I can even rip them up and make a small fire because I spent all my money on cards. Currently there is zero value for the dupes and then my suggestion of hording crystals is more valid as a system is months away.

As for the second point there is a major negative side with not releasing the data. The community gets to make their own information and it is more difficult to dispute. If I am a player and dont think that the drop rates are as bad as the rest of the community then I cant say anything as they have proof and I have my own idea. If you or other members say that drop rates are not as bad as we say or have become better then the community can stick with the idea that it has not becausewe have proof.

I currently get the feeling that the idea of hording packs and crystals are not something that the developers want, but they are the best way for players to avoid dupes and get better chances at nondupes.

toastie

Ok, I'll bite.

Brigby wrote:

The rates are bad: If the rates were increased to be noticeably better, then wouldn't that just lead to more duplicates?

It would also result in more new cards. That question is honestly a bit insulting. Mythic drop rates and useless duplicates are largely separate issues, each of them needs to be looked at.

Brigby wrote:

The dupe system is bad: Isn't getting duplicates just the natural ceiling that having an inherently large card collection comes with? In addition, what would happen if someone doesn't get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

The difference is, if you look at games like Magic, Hearthstone, and well, basically every other card game ever, duplicates have some inherent value. If you open a pack of Magic cards and get a duplicate mythic you can trade it off for cards you don't have, or sell it to offset the cost of the pack (or even for a profit). In Hearthstone when you open a duplicate legendary you can cash that in for any epic in the game. In MTGPQ when you get a duplicate mythic you get what, 10% of the way from level 59-60 on one planeswalker? And you can get more than that from 15 minutes of QB. In those other games getting duplicates (especially of higher rarities) is not only not a problem, it's still exciting because you are getting something valuable, even if it's not as valuable as the first one you open.

TL;DR: Yes, when you have a large collection you get more duplicates, but that doesn't mean that getting duplicates should be such a disappointing experience.

[Bonus] Tell us the drop rates: What would be the reaction if the drop rates were actually published? Wouldn't the perception of drop rates being bad still remain, regardless of if you knew the rates or not?

Here is my anticipation of reactions

Drop Rates Better Than Perception: Players either go into denial, are upset by their personal bad luck, or some might accept that the drop rates aren't as bad as they feel. Drop Rates Equal To Perception: Players are upset that the actual drop rates fit into the negative perception of it. Drop Rates Are Worse Than Perception: Players are furious that the drop rates are actually lower than players thought it to be, although some might be glad it's lower since they would have received more cards than they were supposed to.

This is extremely pessimistic, and a terrible justification for not telling us the drop rates. The first thing you have to understand here is that RNG is a giant pain to make feel good, simply because brains are fundamentally incompatible with it, so yes, any time RNG is involved people will feel bad some of the time. But here's the thing, people will be totally content to blame it on RNG if they know what the numbers are and the numbers are reasonable. Take the example where I go for a month without getting a mythic. If I know that on average I should be getting one every two weeks I will be frustrated and blame RNG. If I don't know how often I should be getting them, I will get frustrated and blame D3GO. RNG literally gives you a free out, but only if we know that we are getting screwed by it rather than getting screwed by you.

Another way that us knowing the drop rates actually helps you is the gambler's fallacy. If I know that one out of 10 packs on average has a rare in it, and have gotten 15 packs in a row without one, I would actually be inclined to believe that I should be due to get a rare soon (and this happens even if you understand the gambler's fallacy). This encourages getting more packs. On the other hand, if I have gotten 15 packs in a row with no rare and I don't know the drop rate, I have no reason to believe that I will get a rare any time soon (because the rare drop rate could be 1/50 for all I know), which doesn't encourage getting more packs.

Brigby

Just to clarify, and I'll include this in my original post too, that I was purposefully playing [insert-religious-entity]'s advocate simply to invoke further discussion, and encourage alternate perspectives. I was not intentionally trying to come off as pessimistic, and I apologize if anyone took offense to it.

Infested

Brigby wrote:

Just to clarify, and I'll include this in my original post too, that I was purposefully playing [insert-religious-entity]'s advocate simply to invoke further discussion, and encourage alternate perspectives. I was not intentionally trying to come off as pessimistic, and I apologize if anyone took offense to it.

Thank you for the point.

babar3355

cwashley wrote:

I have been playing since September and am missing a lot of the mythic cards which a lot of people use to make the last jump in competition for PvP events - Olivia, Decimator of Provinces, Deploy the Gatewatch, Ulvenwald Hydra, etc. I am in a top 15 coalition and am very competitive, so have been willing to spend money to get better.

I bought a 3000 pack of gems this morning for 100 dollars, and with the gems I had saved up bought 11 Premium packs of SOI.

I got zero mythic cards.

Not zero NEW mythic cards, ZERO mythics. And of the rare cards I got, I had multiple duplicates of the same card.

I own all planeswalkers, and they are all at level 60 - I no longer have any use for runes.

This game's economy is broken, spending money on this game cant even get you ahead and the customer support is down-right insulting.

So assuming the mythic drop rate is roughly 1%, you had a roughly 6.3% chance of hitting zero mythics. See, if we KNEW the drop rate you could be really mad and complain about RNG, but you would likely not blame D3. Player calibrated drop rates can be found here https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScQGVZ8yXANx45y73Il9HbsKvj89DLnvX_DRrqbE5iKNoKNcg/viewform * Please update as you open ALL packs.. not just boom or bust packs

@Brigby, the reason you should show drop rates is the same reason many people are requesting refunds! Cwashley should be able to find out that if he spends $100 and all of his crystals he could expect about 2.75 mythics (if that's true). Then he can make an informed decision. The practice of hiding information from consumers is some of the worst and most hated of all business practices. In many businesses its actually ILLEGAL, including at casinos.

@Cwashley, sorry for some bad luck there. I highly recommend you join our Not.Another.Dime movement until D3 decides to come to the table and with some honest communication with the community and some changes to their current reward/prize structure.

Muche

Brigby wrote:

(Ok. Back in character) Isn't getting duplicates just the natural ceiling that having an inherently large card collection comes with? In addition, what would happen if someone doesn't get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

How can someone obtain every card of a set extremely fast?
There are "free" ways: basic 8-hours boosters, daily rewards, QB, event progression & ranking rewards (individual and coalition), storymode rewards; and paid: crystals and exclusive cards.

Basic boosters - there is a known number of them between sets (3*number of days), devs know and control the drop-rate.
Daily rewards - there is a known number of crystals and packs between sets.
QB - assume the "worst case scenario", i.e. the player ranked at first place. The reward is known, the number of QBs between sets is fixed as well.
Event rewards - again, assume the "worst case scenario", i.e. the player gets the perfect score in every match, gets all progression rewards, finishes at first place, their coalition finishes at first place as well. The rewards are known, the number and type of events as well.
Storymove rewards - fixed number of crystals, not repeatable, so can be ignored in the long run, but helps new players.

In summary: the amount of "free" crystals and packs is fixed between sets, devs know and control the drop-rate, they can predict how many cards one player gets "for free" between sets. What remains is bought crystals and exclusives. Thus the only way to obtain every card of a set extremely fast is to spend money. Isn't that what devs want? The problem seems to be that devs are not content with fixed maximum amount of money one player can generate per set, and try to target the whales by making it possible to spend infinite amount of money for negligible result.

DuskPaladin

Brigby wrote:

The rates are bad: If the rates were increased to be noticeably better, then wouldn’t that just lead to more duplicates?

Brigby wrote:

( Ok. Back in character ) Isn’t getting duplicates just the natural ceiling that having an inherently large card collection comes with? In addition, what would happen if someone doesn’t get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

Brigby

Getting duplicates is a natural thing when you have nearly everything already from a set. Right now, people are getting tons duplicates even if they only have a small fraction of the cards. If I’m only missing Starfield of Nix as my last Mythic from the Magic: Origins set, yes it might take a while before I get it. What is absolutely wrong with this game (MTG: PQ) is that some people on the forums could be spending $700 (or the corresponding amount of crystals from playing the game) and get nothing worthwhile. They are still really far from completing a set, they don’t even have enough cards for a competitive deck.

That’s a huge amount of money and effort invested in the game, it’s disheartening for them to get NOTHING out of it.

You have to establish some baseline for card acquisition. Let’s take a paper MTG analogy from my experience. (I’m simplifying things, and making the numbers up, but it’s to give you an example)

One Booster Box ($100) = 95% of all the commons and uncommons, like 50% of the rares, and 25% of the Mythics (so you have a functional and diverse collection)
Two Booster Boxes = a playset (x4) of all the commons, a playset of 95% all the uncommons, 95% of all the rares, about 50% of the Mythics
One Booster Case (Booster boxes x6) = a playset of all the commons and uncommons, and like a playset of 25% of all the rares, 95% of all the Mythics (you have about everything from that set, but there’s still a few things that you might still be chasing)

Also, paper Magic cards have real values and can be traded or sold. They are used in tournaments where people can earn a lot more money. It’s not the case here. So, it shouldn’t cost as much for people to complete set. You can also handpick your cards there, unlike here.

I’ll tell you what I would do if I had all the cards from a set. No, I would not stop playing. First of all, I would feel a sense of accomplishment. Like getting all the trophies/achievements in a game.

Then, here are some examples of things I would do after that:
1) I would start trying to get all the cards needed to complete another set.
2) I would keep playing and save my crystals to get ready for the next set.
3) I would test more wacky decks and strategies as I won’t have the stress of needing perfection. (It’s been a few months already that I got all the KLD rares, I’m still playing Oath events for fun without pursuing the last hairsplitting objectives, it’s been much more enjoyable.)
4) One thing for sure, I would play with my hard-earned cards, I collected them to play with them not for them to gather digital dust.

Many of us are Magic players and collectors, we just love cards, and all we’re asking is to be able to play with them even if there’s no prize on the line, as long as it’s FUN . While D3H believes that the fun is for us to go for the impossible goal of getting every card despite the abysmal drop rates, what we really want is to play and have fun with our cards.

You’re already releasing new contents every 3 months like in paper. So there’s an endless stream of new cards to collect. You also have 20 years for magic history to draw from.

Make it fun, not an exercise in futility, and people will start to spend again on your game, and they will do it gladly.

ZW2007-

Brigby wrote:

In addition, what would happen if someone doesn't get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

They would continue playing the game because it is actually a really fun game in spite of all the complaints. I think the real concern is "How would we make money if players didn't need to spend their crystals on cards and could save up a ton of crystals in between sets?". Give players frivolous things to spend their crystals on. Foil cards, alternate art planeswalker avatars, get creative. How do you retain player interest while not increasing their hoards of crystals? Give them more game modes that offer ZERO rewards but are fun to play. I may have suggested one in the past that may or may not have been bastardized and turned into the current pay to play event. This event is the opposite of fun but people will play it since it's another way to acquire jewels. There's a man by the name of Mark Rosewater that has written extensively on the topic of good game design. You guys could probably learn a thing or two from him. Heck, maybe he'd even be willing to give some advice if you just asked him for it.

Here's a little snippet from an article of his that can be found here. Take from it what you will.

MaRo wrote:

I've talked about this before that players will do whatever the game incentivizes them to do whether or not that thing is fun. The goal of a game designer is to make the incentives move the players towards the parts of the game that are fun.

madwren

ZW2007- wrote:

Brigby wrote:

In addition, what would happen if someone doesn't get duplicates and ends up obtaining every card extremely fast before a new set is released?

They would continue playing the game because it is actually a really fun game in spite of all the complaints. I think the real concern is "How would we make money if players didn't need to spend their crystals on cards and could save up a ton of crystals in between sets?". Give players frivolous things to spend their crystals on.

Indeed.

There have been countless threads demonstrating positive ways in which presumed developer concerns could have been met without alienating the community. If you think there was a mythic gravy train, then fine, many of us in top coalitions understand that dialing it back a little was fine. We've said as such. However, it makes no sense to then cripple the income by which we try to attain them in order to gouge us for more real money. It smacks of either greed or desperation, I'm not sure which---but whichever it is, it isn't player-centric. "You'll get fewer good cards, and it'll take you longer to get them, and you'll earn fewer crystals to spend on acquiring them" is a remarkable trifecta of failure.

By comparison, "We'll slow down the mythic acquisition, but we'll give you more buying options and demonstrate more transparency while still maintaining a healthy rate of income" would have been fantastic.