POLL: Attention Elite Pack Purchasers

babar3355

There is a new Elite pack set.. should we get a new poll going?

buscemi

babar3355 wrote:

There is a new Elite pack set.. should we get a new poll going?

We should throw in the dupicate results from this thread and facebook here too, so people don't think they have as high a chance as 3% of getting a mythic.

ZW2007-

Ok so I have this poll scheduled to end in about 8 hours. 3% chance on that one Black Vise is even lower since the other two masterpieces have to be possible as well (or do they? puts on tinfoil hat). There's plenty of smarter people than me on these forums, can one of you figure out how the other masterpieces play in here? Seems to me like 1% chance for any of the masterpieces.

Info from comments and FB combined results are:

Aethertide Whale: 2
Aetherwind Basker: 1
Kari Zev: 2
Yahenni: 3

As for dupes of the same card in multiple packs purchased by the same person, one person received two Yahennis, another person received two Kari Zevs, and a third person received two Aethertide Whales. Two of those people posted here, while the double Whales was from FB. I'll assume that one of the Yahennis and one Kari Zev were already submitted. No masterpieces were reported elsewhere. Please note the numbers in this post were added to the poll above so we can assume this poll is closed unless there is someone out there still that bought the pack before it left and still hasn't voted.

FARTFACTORY

As somebody who has shifted his mobile game budget to Fire Emblem as part of the Not. Another. Dime. movement, I'd like to explain why I haven't participated in the unobtainium lottery. A Gacha game is a brilliant design when it's done right, in that, it's beneficial for both the developer and the gamer.

Keys to a good Gacha game:
1. Dupes have value. This gives the player an incentive to take a shot at a random card without the risk of totally wasting their money.
2. The designers are transparent about drop rates. PQ doesn't mention drop rates anywhere in game and, to my knowledge, D3 has never even spoken on the matter. Because of this, to assume drop rates are random is simply niave.
3. Let RNGesus work his magic.

It's really a simply concept but these guys have to put their blatantly greedy spin on things. I'm still fighting the urge to buy Tezz2. He will be the first PW I didn't buy the week it was released. (Except for Garruk who I think I won lol) If this game didn't hide behind MTG nostalgia or PQ good vibes, it would be the tinniest of kitties.

DumasAG

FARTFACTORY wrote:

As somebody who has shifted his mobile game budget to Fire Emblem as part of the Not. Another. Dime. movement, I'd like to explain why I haven't participated in the unobtainium lottery. A Gacha game is a brilliant design when it's done right, in that, it's beneficial for both the developer and the gamer.

Keys to a good Gacha game:
1. Dupes have value. This gives the player an incentive to take a shot at a random card without the risk of totally wasting their money.
2. The designers are transparent about drop rates. PQ doesn't mention drop rates anywhere in game and, to my knowledge, D3 has never even spoken on the matter. Because of this, to assume drop rates are random is simply niave.
3. Let RNGesus work his magic.

It's really a simply concept but these guys have to put their blatantly greedy spin on things. I'm still fighting the urge to buy Tezz2. He will be the first PW I didn't buy the week it was released. (Except for Garruk who I think I won lol) If this game didn't hide behind MTG nostalgia or PQ good vibes, it would be the tinniest of kitties.

I've played MTGPQ since the beginning, and have spent about $20 total on it because the purchases never seem reasonable (dropping $30 for a particular card with no aftermarket offends my sensibilities). Meanwhile, I've been playing FE Heroes since it released in the states, and have dropped about $70. I have nearly tripled my expenditure, and in a substantially shorter timeframe, specifically because of the bullets above. I know what I'm getting, and all of the dupes have actual value because of the inheritance system. I'd like to throw in that the lower cost of buying orbs in FE Heroes is much more palatable (can I say this enough? $5-$12 is the sweet spot, I'm always suckered in at that rate).

Zubiti

Kami wrote:

1 pack opened, got black vise

Very nice! Gratz! Loved that card in paper magic and looks so good.

Ampmp11

I don't get why D3 forces us to guess what the drop rates our ourselves, and create polls and spreadsheets to collect the data. It just stinks of shadiness. They probably made it so that it's less than 1% chance to get a masterpiece, something like 0.79%, which is why they won't say anything about it. This is the times of transparency and remaining to work in the shadows while most other gacha games are transparent about their drop rates is just bad business practice and doesn't promote good will. If this game wasn't magic affiliated I would've left a long time ago.

madwren

My budget's shifted to FE: Heroes as well. Wonderful game. I truly appreciate the transparency and generosity shown by Nintendo.

Volrak

Ampmp11 wrote:

I don't get why D3 forces us to guess what the drop rates our ourselves, and create polls and spreadsheets to collect the data. It just stinks of shadiness. They probably made it so that it's less than 1% chance to get a masterpiece, something like 0.79%, which is why they won't say anything about it.

I would also love to see more transparency on drop rates. I agree it would be a good thing for the game, including its financials. Meanwhile, we're left to speculate.

From the data in this excellent poll we can rule out with supreme confidence Algorithm A, in which the chance of getting a mythic is equal to the chance of getting a masterpiece.

There are two further algorithms which are simple and non-arbitrary candidates for explaining the chances of mythics and masterpieces dropping from elite packs.

1. Select rarity as per a normal card drop in a normal pack
2. IF rarity < mythic THEN set rarity to mythic
3. Assign an available card of the given rarity

Algorithm B equates the chance of opening a masterpiece in an elite pack with the chance of opening a masterpiece for any given card of a normal KLD pack. This means you're effectively buying a mythic if you buy an elite pack, and you can pretty much ignore the MP cards on offer; you'll get 5 rolls at an MP card from the next ordinary KLD pack you open, in contrast to the 1 roll you got in the elite pack. If the normal MP drop rate is 0.1% and mythic drop rate is 1%, then we should see people open a masterpiece for every 1000 mythics in elite packs. So far we've seen one drop from 37, which is far more than 1/1000, but we need more data to know whether that one drop was a fluke.

1. Set MP_chance to (normal masterpiece drop rate) / (normal mythic drop rate + normal masterpiece drop rate)
2. Select rarity with a (MP_chance) probability of masterpiece, and (1 - MP_chance) probability of mythic
3. Assign an available card of the given rarity

Algorithm C sets the chance of a masterpiece in an elite pack in proportion to the drop rates of masterpieces and mythics in normal packs. If the normal MP drop rate is 0.1% and mythic drop rate is 1%, then we should see people open a masterpiece for every 10 mythics. So far we've seen less than that; more data on both elite packs and normal KLD packs will be illuminating, the latter giving us an estimate of what the normal MP drop rate actually is (it may well be lower than 0.1%).

The data so far favours C, but B is a possibility. Of course, we also can't rule out Algorithm D which uses some completely arbitrary approach to decide what rarity or even what card will drop from an elite pack.

madwren

Maybe start one for the next elite pack?