Bag of Tricks Bonus Heroes odds

Rhycar

My displayed bonus heroes odds on the Bag of Tricks token screen is showing up as 1 in 6 instead of 5%. Is this accurate? If so, it could significantly change the strategy of whether to use CP on this cover pack.

My apologies if this is covered elsewhere, I haven't seen it yet.

DJSquiggy

i saw that too. 17.1%? thats not trivial

alphabeta

Be great to know for sure if these are correct odds or a content error before we all potentially make some purchase decisions

Boommike

And I've got miles in my AvU tokens... maybe because he's featured?

DJSquiggy

yes, Featured characters are always in the stores.

smkspy

This is what the BH odds should be close to anyways. I can barely pull 5s with regular pulls, so don't know if it actually worth the 5 extra five CP for that increased rng inside rng chance.

Although the continued chances for.moon knight and Kate might be worth the 5 extra cp.

Ruinate

Here's some small data.

Allymate spent 2150 cp. 12 Hawkeyes, around 10 4* bonus, 1 5* bonus.

broll

Ruinate wrote:

Here's some small data.

Allymate spent 2150 cp. 12 Hawkeyes, around 10 4* bonus, 1 5* bonus.

11/86 = ~12.9% higher than 5%, lower than 16.7%
Inconclusive.

Rhycar

All anecdotal evidence from alliance mates and other friends points to these odds being legit. I would just really like to get confirmation before blowing 4200 CP on it.

mpqr7

I believe that LTs have higher odds of bonus pulls, because bonus pulls occur only when you pull a 3*, 4* or 5*. And since LTs are only 4*s and 5*s, then there's always a chance of bonus heroes.

Whereas other tokens have either a mix of 1*s and 2*s (standards) or else are mostly 2*s (heroics, elites and events), so those will not have BH unless you pull a 3* or 4*.

Kojubat

mpqr7 wrote:

I believe that LTs have higher odds of bonus pulls, because bonus pulls occur only when you pull a 3*, 4* or 5*. And since LTs are only 4*s and 5*s, then there's always a chance of bonus heroes.

Compare the odds between a Bag of Tricks token and a Latest Legendary token instead of a Heroic. That will illustrate the question/comment.

broll

Kojubat wrote:

mpqr7 wrote:

I believe that LTs have higher odds of bonus pulls, because bonus pulls occur only when you pull a 3*, 4* or 5*. And since LTs are only 4*s and 5*s, then there's always a chance of bonus heroes.

Compare the odds between a Bag of Tricks token and a Latest Legendary token instead of a Heroic. That will illustrate the question/comment.

Yes the question here is that in game it currently shows the following odds:
Bonus Hero from Classic Legends - 1:20
Bonus Hero from Latest Legends - 1:20
Bonus Hero from Bag of tricks - ~1:6

Is that a bug/typo or is the bag of tricks over 3 times more likely to grant Bonus Heroes than other CP packs? Will that be the norm for all single 5* packs? Why do the other two not have ~ when Bag of Tricks does?

firethorne

Hmm, wonder if they give it better bonus odds since it has worse chance at 5*'s

Bag of Tricks 5* Math

3000 CP / 25 CP per draw = 120 draws
120 draws * 10% = 12 "normal" 5*'s
12 * (1/6) = 2 "bonus" 5*'s

12 + 2
= 14

Bag of Tricks 4* Math

3000 CP / 25 CP per draw = 120 draws
120 draws * 90% = 108 "normal" 4*'s
108 * (1/6) = 18 "bonus" 4*'s

108 + 18
= 126

Latest 5* Math
3000 CP / 25 CP per draw = 120 draws
120 draws * 15% = 18 "normal" 5*'s
18 * (1/20) = .9 "bonus" 5*'

18 + .9
= 18 to 19

Latest 4* Math
3000 CP / 25 CP per draw = 120 draws
120 draws * 85% = 102 "normal" 4*'s
102 * (1/20) = 5.1 "bonus" 5*'

102 + 5.1
= 107 to 108

Classics 5* Math
3000 CP / 20 CP per draw = 150 draws
150 draws * 15% = 22.5 "normal" 5*'s
22.5 * (1/20) = 1.25 "bonus" 5*'

22.5 + 1.25
= 23 to 24

Classics 4* Math
3000 CP / 20 CP per draw = 150 draws
150 draws * 85% = 127.5 "normal" 4*'s
127.5 * (1/20) = 6.375 "bonus" 5*'

127.5 + 6.375
= 133 to 134


So, hard to say which is the best buy here. It really depends on how specific your 5* hunt needs to be. 1 character, 3 characters, or all the rest...

broll

firethorne wrote:

So, hard to say which is the best buy here. It really depends on how specific your 5* hunt needs to be. 1 character, 3 characters, or all the rest...

But one things for sure, if your hunt is for 4*s they took away the 'all the rest' option from all of the above

byc

Anybody remember what the Black Panther one was? Or Thanos? I really hit Thanos, I thought it was 20%. I didn't get a single Black Panther, so I don't remember.

Hendross

I can contribute a sample size of 1; and received a Bonus Carol

Brigby

Hi Everyone. It would appear that the 1:6 odds are not the correct odds for the store. The development team will be pushing out a change sometime later today to implement the correct drop rate.

Please take note that this is a bug with the actual drop rate itself, and not a graphical bug. We apologize for any confusion this might have caused.

Dayv

byc wrote:

Anybody remember what the Black Panther one was? Or Thanos? I really hit Thanos, I thought it was 20%. I didn't get a single Black Panther, so I don't remember.

Thanos was also 10%. I remember because I got a Thanos from each of my first two tokens, making me part of "the 1%"...

Personally, I never recommend pulling with CP from these 25 CP tokens with only a 10% drop rate. The increased bonus rate on these Hawkeye tokens is t enough to offset the 1/3 lower odds of a five-star.

byc

DayvBang wrote:

byc wrote:

Anybody remember what the Black Panther one was? Or Thanos? I really hit Thanos, I thought it was 20%. I didn't get a single Black Panther, so I don't remember.

Thanos was also 10%. I remember because I got a Thanos from each of my first two tokens, making me part of "the 1%"...

Personally, I never recommend pulling with CP from these 25 CP tokens with only a 10% drop rate. The increased bonus rate on these Hawkeye tokens is t enough to offset the 1/3 lower odds of a five-star.

Thinking back, it must have been 10%. I spent a lot of CP on it and got 7 covers of him. Later on I got lucky and got another Thanos from LL.

therightwaye

Brigby wrote:

Hi Everyone. It would appear that the 1:6 odds are not the correct odds for the store. The development team will be pushing out a change sometime later today to implement the correct drop rate.

Please take note that this is a bug with the actual drop rate itself, and not a graphical bug. We apologize for any confusion this might have caused.

SO, right now I can drop a bunch of CP (THAT I DON'T HAVE) and have a 1:6 chance for bonus characters?

ZeiramMR

You could be like me and get 3 bonus hero covers which were all in the color I didn't want.