VentureBeat article: How MPQ is making its money

Spoit

I don't believe in MMO subs either, but that's probably more game play than you'd get from this. $15 buys what, a single cover upgrade and a shield?

Unknown

Spoit wrote:

I don't believe in MMO subs either, but that's probably more game play than you'd get from this. $15 buys what, a single cover upgrade and a shield?

Yes, but there can be negative value for playing a game too. If you ask any disgruntled MMORPG player you'll easily hear a story like: "I paid blah blah per month and waited for this patch, and kept playing the game which totally sucked but people told me it was going eventually going to be good but that never happened" In this game I can see how you can waste your money, but it's pretty hard to waste your money and your life at the same time. If you were crazy enough to say upgrade Wolverine X Force to max, all you'd have wasted is money but your life should be okay when you quickly found out this is a very dumb idea. There are plenty of games I played where it felt like I wasted both my money and my life. I realize that's setting the bar pretty low, but the gaming industry in general seems to be just constantly trying to lower the bar so in light of how bad of a value you get now, I consider anything that only took my money to be okay, because a lot of games would take my money and then send some goons to beat me up too just because they can. Besides, this game doesn't have my money anyway (though I do plan on buying a Steam DLC when/if they have that 66% off deal again).

Spoit

...Aren't all the burnout comments about 'wasting life'?

Unknown

I bet MPQ isn't making money today....

Unknown

Knock3r wrote:

How does a smart consumer think that odds of 100% going down to 6.2% seem like a fair and fun deal?

On the other hand, them eliminating 1 hero tokens (i.e. 2* or IM40 etc) while greatly reducing your chance of that one hero, does help lots of veteran players who might not need that hero.

Kelbris

Phantron wrote:

There's a general trend of paying more money in gaming for less quality. Compared to most stuff out there in MPQ you're getting a pretty good deal. It's at least not like a MMORPG where you pay them $15 month because things might get better next patch.

I think in general the extremely bloated staff of all modern gaming is to blame. If you look at some of those AAA title games their list of credit goes on forever and these guys probably didn't work for free.

You mentioned two genres of games, which are the only genres where you "prepay" for future content

Anything else, you actually wait for things to be released before you buy the content be it the game or DLC

it's so backwards

Spoit

AethD wrote:

Knock3r wrote:

How does a smart consumer think that odds of 100% going down to 6.2% seem like a fair and fun deal?

On the other hand, them eliminating 1 hero tokens (i.e. 2* or IM40 etc) while greatly reducing your chance of that one hero, does help lots of veteran players who might not need that hero.

Maybe if they don't already have more than the last couple heroes cover maxed. Otherwise, it's a lot less helpful for the new hero featured packs.

I'd probably consider buying a daken 10 pack or two, whenever that event turns up, if there were still only the featured 3* in one

Unknown

Knock3r wrote:

How does a smart consumer think that odds of 100% going down to 6.2% seem like a fair and fun deal?

I can certainly vouch that back when it was a guaranteed pull on the featured character, I'd buy a pack each week, sometimes more. I haven't bought a single pack since it changed. To me, "increased chance of (X)" is exactly the same thing as "same old chance of pulling 3 Bagmans". Bagmans? Bagmen? Whatever...

Unknown

Kelbris wrote:

Phantron wrote:

There's a general trend of paying more money in gaming for less quality. Compared to most stuff out there in MPQ you're getting a pretty good deal. It's at least not like a MMORPG where you pay them $15 month because things might get better next patch.

I think in general the extremely bloated staff of all modern gaming is to blame. If you look at some of those AAA title games their list of credit goes on forever and these guys probably didn't work for free.

You mentioned two genres of games, which are the only genres where you "prepay" for future content

Anything else, you actually wait for things to be released before you buy the content be it the game or DLC

it's so backwards

There's a rather obvious trend of games being released while missing vital features only to sell them as DLC later, and you essentially end up prepaying for the future hoping whatever DLC they added later might actually be good.

Prepaying for the future is a rather common scene in modern games. I don't know when the bar has gotten this low but that's where it's at for now.

Unknown

Lyrian wrote:

In reality, the issue here is one on generational perception. . . .

I think the older Millenials are fed up with this as well. I know I am. From what I've read Millenial is anyone born after 1980.

atomzed

HawkeyeSucks wrote:

atomzed wrote:

The fact that my season progression reward 10-pack gave me ZERO 3* convinced me that its not worth the risk buying 10-packs anymore.

That's interesting because my friend and I both got that 10-pack progression reward and both pulled THREE 3* covers. We figured that was the standard.

They really need to introduce a 3* token as I have previously mentioned. It's the only way to balance out this game since they took away the guaranteed cover pack. Also his analogy to WoW was completely tinykitty, that monster boss (or whatever, i never played) drops one treasure but getting a guaranteed cover in a 10-pack still leaves 9 surprises

Well, the standard would be around 2 to 3 tokens. Assuming a 23% of 3* drops, the percentages for the number of rares pulled would be

0 tokens- 7.33%
1 tokens - 21.9%
2 tokens- 29.4%
3 tokens - 23.4%
4 tokens - 12.2%
5 tokens - 4.39%
6 tokens - 1.09%
7 tokens - 0.19%
8 tokens - 0.021%
9 tokens - 0.0014%
10 tokens - 4.14265E-05%

So mine was definitely an unlucky draw, as I fell into the 7% mark.

Statistically speaking, we have a 75% chance of receiving 1 to 3 rare tokens from the packs.

Personally, the percentage are not fantastic, as I only break even with my 3800 HP investment at 41% of the time (3 tokens or more). The other 59% I will be making a loss in my investment. If I want a specific cover, it may make more economical sense to purchase them directly.

Of course, some players may like their odds at 41%, so they might find it fun to gamble on those 10-packs... but definitely not me.

Unknown

HawkeyeSucks wrote:

atomzed wrote:

The fact that my season progression reward 10-pack gave me ZERO 3* convinced me that its not worth the risk buying 10-packs anymore.

That's interesting because my friend and I both got that 10-pack progression reward and both pulled THREE 3* covers. We figured that was the standard.

They really need to introduce a 3* token as I have previously mentioned. It's the only way to balance out this game since they took away the guaranteed cover pack. Also his analogy to WoW was completely tinykitty, that monster boss (or whatever, i never played) drops one treasure but getting a guaranteed cover in a 10-pack still leaves 9 surprises

There used to be 3* tokens with the lightning rounds, but they were changed to the current model. Seems unlikely they're going to make more, they seem pretty gung ho with this model.

Unknown

For the Shield of Justice type packs (only 1 possible 3*, increased chance for buying 10) the scenarios breakdown as follows:

If you have no cover of this character you're trying to get him for some essential node in a PvE that you otherwise cannot even attempt you're generally worse off in new model. That said you're generally pretty screwed if you ever find yourself in this situation as you're forking at least 4000 HP for a level 15 3* that is unlikely to actually do anything useful for whatever node you're attempting.

If you're missing a particular color cover you're no better off than before because you're still gambling on the guaranteed 3* cover to be the right color. The average is the same for both, and on average the guaranteed cover isn't going to be the color you need, so either way you're gambling.

If you've all the color covers already and you're feeling lucky, the new model is better because there is a better payoff when you're lucky. Note that the payoff for both cases is worse than just upgrading 3 covers with 1250 HP in the average case. If you want to try your luck, the best thing to do is simply spent 3750 HP to upgrade 3 covers and buy a daily deal at 200 HP. The chance of that being a 3* is slightly higher than the chance you'd pull 4 3*s from a 10 pack, so on average this gets you a higher chance of getting 4 3*s for 150 more HP.

Spoit

Phantron wrote:

For the Shield of Justice type packs (only 1 possible 3*, increased chance for buying 10) the scenarios breakdown as follows:

If you have no cover of this character you're trying to get him for some essential node in a PvE that you otherwise cannot even attempt you're generally worse off in new model. That said you're generally pretty screwed if you ever find yourself in this situation as you're forking at least 4000 HP for a level 15 3* that is unlikely to actually do anything useful for whatever node you're attempting.

If you're missing a particular color cover you're no better off than before because you're still gambling on the guaranteed 3* cover to be the right color. The average is the same for both, and on average the guaranteed cover isn't going to be the color you need, so either way you're gambling.

If you've all the color covers already and you're feeling lucky, the new model is better because there is a better payoff when you're lucky. Note that the payoff for both cases is worse than just upgrading 3 covers with 1250 HP in the average case. If you want to try your luck, the best thing to do is simply spent 3750 HP to upgrade 3 covers and buy a daily deal at 200 HP. The chance of that being a 3* is slightly higher than the chance you'd pull 4 3*s from a 10 pack, so on average this gets you a higher chance of getting 4 3*s for 150 more HP.

Yeah, the expected number of covers was slightly worse than just buying them with the single type of 3* pack. What's the chance of pulling a featured cover at now with the 'slightly better' heroic tokens?

atomzed

Phantron wrote:

For the Shield of Justice type packs (only 1 possible 3*, increased chance for buying 10) the scenarios breakdown as follows:

If you have no cover of this character you're trying to get him for some essential node in a PvE that you otherwise cannot even attempt you're generally worse off in new model. That said you're generally pretty screwed if you ever find yourself in this situation as you're forking at least 4000 HP for a level 15 3* that is unlikely to actually do anything useful for whatever node you're attempting.

If you're missing a particular color cover you're no better off than before because you're still gambling on the guaranteed 3* cover to be the right color. The average is the same for both, and on average the guaranteed cover isn't going to be the color you need, so either way you're gambling.

If you've all the color covers already and you're feeling lucky, the new model is better because there is a better payoff when you're lucky. Note that the payoff for both cases is worse than just upgrading 3 covers with 1250 HP in the average case. If you want to try your luck, the best thing to do is simply spent 3750 HP to upgrade 3 covers and buy a daily deal at 200 HP. The chance of that being a 3* is slightly higher than the chance you'd pull 4 3*s from a 10 pack, so on average this gets you a higher chance of getting 4 3*s for 150 more HP.

Great analysis... but this is ONLY relevant for the older business model (specifically only 1 type of 3*, like the shield of justice pack you mentioned). The business model has now changed to that of having a char of getting all possible 3*.

Let's take the heavy metal 10 packs for example.

If you are feeling rich and want covers for your IM40, you could buy the heavy metal 10 packs available now. You have 6.2% chance of getting your IM40 per pull.

Which is ridiculously low.

I would say that the new business model for the covers ONLY benefit those who won their tokens from pvp or pve. In the past, if you have a maxed out IM40, the tokens were useless as you will only draw IM40 as 3*. However, with this new model, you have some chance of getting other 3*, which is great for those elite players.

I seriously think that the change was to benefit those who earn their tokens from pvp. But it shaft those who may want to purchase packs (like me before)

Unknown

atomzed wrote:

Great analysis... but this is ONLY relevant for the older business model (specifically only 1 type of 3*, like the shield of justice pack you mentioned). The business model has now changed to that of having a char of getting all possible 3*.

Let's take the heavy metal 10 packs for example.

If you are feeling rich and want covers for your IM40, you could buy the heavy metal 10 packs available now. You have 6.2% chance of getting your IM40 per pull.

Which is ridiculously low.

I would say that the new business model for the covers ONLY benefit those who won their tokens from pvp or pve. In the past, if you have a maxed out IM40, the tokens were useless as you will only draw IM40 as 3*. However, with this new model, you have some chance of getting other 3*, which is great for those elite players.

I seriously think that the change was to benefit those who earn their tokens from pvp. But it shaft those who may want to purchase packs (like me before)

The packs aren't limited to 1 3* have always been extremely bad buys unless the 3* pool for increased chances are all very strong. For example I remember one time it was Captain America/Thor/Psylocke in one of the heroic events, so that might be worth it because 2 out of 3 heroes are top tier (well Captain is top tier for PvE, not so much PvP) and Psylocke is above average. If they're say Loki Thor GSBW then it's a very bad buy because there's only 2/3 heroes are marginal.

Also note that the 'guaranteed to be a certain 3*' are incredibly bad buys if the character you're getting is a weak. That is, under the system we'd have a 10 event pack that features IM40 for 3800 HP. That's a very bad buy because IM40 is a weak hero and you're better off just buying the generic 10 heroic pack.

Now I have no idea who actually bought the 10 cover pack for a guaranteed IM40 in the past, but it seems like there are more of those guys than we think, so overall, these guys are getting a much better deal because the new 10 cover pack is only a higher chance of getting IM40 so you've a chance of getting someone else better. I'd say that if you knew what you're doing, you're doing slightly worse in this new system just because there are a lot less Shield of Justice type packs, which is the only kind that was worth gambling on, but if you don't know what you're doing, you're generally much better off since the 10 pack that features a useless hero no longer exists either, and I really wouldn't be surprised that this change is beneficial to the community overall simply because there are enough people out there buying for guaranteed IM40 or Loki or whatever who are now saved from their ignorance.

atomzed

Phantron wrote:

atomzed wrote:

Great analysis... but this is ONLY relevant for the older business model (specifically only 1 type of 3*, like the shield of justice pack you mentioned). The business model has now changed to that of having a char of getting all possible 3*.

Let's take the heavy metal 10 packs for example.

If you are feeling rich and want covers for your IM40, you could buy the heavy metal 10 packs available now. You have 6.2% chance of getting your IM40 per pull.

Which is ridiculously low.

I would say that the new business model for the covers ONLY benefit those who won their tokens from pvp or pve. In the past, if you have a maxed out IM40, the tokens were useless as you will only draw IM40 as 3*. However, with this new model, you have some chance of getting other 3*, which is great for those elite players.

I seriously think that the change was to benefit those who earn their tokens from pvp. But it shaft those who may want to purchase packs (like me before)

The packs aren't limited to 1 3* have always been extremely bad buys unless the 3* pool for increased chances are all very strong. For example I remember one time it was Captain America/Thor/Psylocke in one of the heroic events, so that might be worth it because 2 out of 3 heroes are top tier (well Captain is top tier for PvE, not so much PvP) and Psylocke is above average. If they're say Loki Thor GSBW then it's a very bad buy because there's only 2/3 heroes are marginal.

Also note that the 'guaranteed to be a certain 3*' are incredibly bad buys if the character you're getting is a weak. That is, under the system we'd have a 10 event pack that features IM40 for 3800 HP. That's a very bad buy because IM40 is a weak hero and you're better off just buying the generic 10 heroic pack.

Now I have no idea who actually bought the 10 cover pack for a guaranteed IM40 in the past, but it seems like there are more of those guys than we think, so overall, these guys are getting a much better deal because the new 10 cover pack is only a higher chance of getting IM40 so you've a chance of getting someone else better. I'd say that if you knew what you're doing, you're doing slightly worse in this new system just because there are a lot less Shield of Justice type packs, which is the only kind that was worth gambling on, but if you don't know what you're doing, you're generally much better off since the 10 pack that features a useless hero no longer exists either, and I really wouldn't be surprised that this change is beneficial to the community overall simply because there are enough people out there buying for guaranteed IM40 or Loki or whatever who are now saved from their ignorance.

I can't argue with the fact that saving people from buying Loki or IM40 is a good thing

On the other hand, it also means that there are no longer any Army of One packs (for Pun) or Shield of Justice (for lazy capt). I relied on those packs to kick start my collection for my 3* heroes. Which means that if I want to focus on certain good tier heroes, I can't do it anymore.

I would say that this is a loss to the community.

Spoit

Yeah. Like I said, I'd totally consider buying a laken 10 pack if he was the only 3* in it

BearVenger

I was bored while working the night shift and found that of all the offers, the only one I'm likely to break even on is the heroic 40-pack on the daily deal.

I currently have all the 2*s covered, save BagMan, and of the possible 3*-4* covers (including WashboarDaken and Nick Fury), I'm missing only 48% of the covers I can equip and 42% of the ones I'd want to equip.

So, with an expected 21% 3*-4* drop rate in a heroic pack, I'd get 8 2* covers to sell (2000 ISO), 1 3* cover to sell (500 ISO) and 1 cover to keep (1250 HP).

In a 40-pack, that would work to 4 keepers (approx 6250 HP), 4 3* sellers (2000 ISO), and 32 2* sellers (8000 ISO).

Doing the math, that works to the value of 6250 HP + 10000 ISO, which can be purchased most efficiently for $44 + $24 = $68.

A Daily Deal heroic 40-pack would cost 11200 HP, which can can be purchased most efficiently for $70.

So if I wanted to spend that much money, I could use $68 to cover up one 4* and three 3*s of my choice, plus.add 10000 ISO to level them up (approximately 5-10 levels). Or, for $2 more, I could let the game pick 4 covers for me and/or hope I come out ahead of the random number probability table.

The carch: either way, I've spent the equivalent of 5 albums, a dinner-and-a-movie, a tank of gas, half my monthly cell-phone bill, 3 months' gym membership, or 1 AAA-level current-gen videogame. And that's for characters who could be nerfed or surpassed at anytime with no return compensation.