Legendary Creatures - don't waste your time

Woundsealer

15 creatures, at a cost of 550 mana crystals a shot.
I only had 2 out of the 15 creatures - Odric and Sigarda.
.
So what are the chances of a duplicate?

If this is random and equally weighted for all of the cards, my chance of a repeat should be 2 out of 15.

13.333% chance of pulling a duplicate.

First pull... Sigarda.

Okay, maybe just bad luck.

Second pull... Sigarda.



1100 crystals for two duplicates in a row... 1.778% chance.

Pulling the SAME card two times in a row that I already have... 0.89%

...

Last time they "sold" mythics for crystals.

I got a duplicate of Odric for one of my 3 purchases.

These mythic sales are a complete sucker's bet in my experience.

I guess the game will now focus on seeing how many crystals I can accumulate, since the drop rates in "big box" have been equally pathetic... a single duplicate rare is my usual "loot", and we don't even need to discuss the drop rates in single 5 card packs... I'm more likely to have 2 or 3 of the same common / uncommon in a single 5 card draw than I am to get a rare or mythic in a big box.

octal9

What's the bug here?

I'm sorry about your luck but this really isn't the appropriate subforum

Holocryptic

I actually ran into the exact same thing. For the sake of everyone, yes, I know. RNG, etc etc.

I do own Odric already.

First pull. Odric.

Second pull. Odric.

I don't know if they're using weighted measurements or true RNG, but the odds that the card draws happen like this are ridiculous. I think it needs to be checked on the backend.

Woundsealer

Post your RNG code, I'm sure I could look at it in a second and point out how it is not really random.

It is draws like this, that aren't happening to just me, that makes me think you have a code problem, or just a really biased weighting that would be nice to know before anybody wastes time / money using crystals on a "purchase" that is basically like buying a lottery ticket that has already been scratched off and is worthless.

If you think this is "acceptable" without even looking at your methodology... well then let's just say that "buyer beware" and this post is to serve as a warning to others to not bother wasting money on this app.

Holocryptic

So I decided to roll a third time just to see what happens.

It was Odric again. So that's Odric (who I already owned prior to drawing my first card. The other one I owned that was on offer in the pack was Gisa and Geralf) getting pulled 3x in a row for 1650 crystals.

At this point I'm looking for either a refund or reroll. So what's that actual process?

Daddystyx

These posts are yet another reason I have sworn off spending any crystals or money on this game until its fixed and the fix is shown to work. Good luck D3 your customer base is getting more and more upset at the product many are paying real money/time out of their daily lives for. The marketing department employed by D3 needs to take some remedial marketing classes as everything I'm learning in college is the exact opposite of your business module. Please change your business model as I really enjoy the concept of this game and still have some HOPE that it will one day decide to grow and not flare out.



BTW I have $50 in ITunes gift cards and over 4500 crystals I have saved due to this very problem.

madwren

In before someone makes the "yes, but in a large enough sample size..." argument.

Daddystyx

madwren wrote:

In before someone makes the "yes, but in a large enough sample size..." argument.

To those people that wan't to quote the statistical average I would say the customer should always make a transaction and feel like they received something worth the effort. If the person gets an amazing card great. But if they don't hit the jackpot they should still feel like they are receiving something out of the transaction. The current system has the possibility to mentally frustrate a customer to the point of wanting to quit the application. No successful business survives on this model except for gambling. I know the developers at D3 wouldn't like this app to be compared to gambling.

SpaceDuck

The D3 Guide to Consumer Happiness:

Crystals are for planeswalkers.

Cards and packs come from events, dailies and QB.

Money is for guaranteed mythics that are obviously top tier.

There are special cases for brand new players, sales or when you own EVERY PW and have 1,300 crystals in the bank, but the above will guarantee that you don't quit the game over buyer's remorse.

Justyce

Same for me only have 5 mythics first pull was dupe sigarda second pull was the ally general and third pull was sigarda.

What a complete waste of crystals. The cost was so much more than last time, there should have had a guarantee of no dupe.

Woundsealer

SpaceDuck

If mana crystals are only useful for planeswalkers, why allow you to buy cards with mana crystals?

I had already pretty much sworn off buying card packs with crystals, because my draws are horrible.

The card packs I earn from events, I often get 2 of the same exact card in a 5 card pack, I've even got 3 of the same exact card in a 5 card pack. I understand getting a lot of common and uncommons, but come on... shuffle the deck a little... 3 of the same exact card out of ALL the available cards... if I got 5 commons that were different, even if I already had all 5, at least I wouldn't have the perception that the draws are rigged and stacked against you.

Maybe D3GO needs to put the odds of each card you could loot next to each card when they offer these purchases, like they do in raffle drawings and lottery tickets.

If I had looked at the odds when spending 550 mana crystals for a single mythic pull, and I saw that Sigarda has a 50% draw rate (or whatever it is) I would say, no thanks, I already have Sigarda, not worth it for me.

At least then a consumer can make an informed decision.

Others obviously feel the same way... and you must as well, since your philosophy is to only use crystals on planeswalkers.

This "offer" was just a very efficient way of converting mana crystals to runes. 1100 crystals to 2000 runes... whooopeeee.

I already have 330K runes...

Now if D3GO allowed you to convert runes to crystals... even if it was 500 to 1, I'd trade those runes in a heartbeat.

E1Q1G6

it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics....

To insult RNGESUS is pointless

E1Q1G6

E1Q1G6 wrote:

it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics....

To insult RNGESUS is pointless

I posted and people said "prove that it's not random." I can't, but really?

Woundsealer

Oh, and I won't quit over buyer's remorse.

I'll quit out of boredom. No new cards... months to get a new planeswalker I don't already have, and that offers anything different enough to be more than just filler from the other planeswalkers I already have... *snore*.

Getting new cards to make new decks is all that this game has going for it... the collector aspect... wanting to try different combinations.

Volrak

E1Q1G6 wrote:

E1Q1G6 wrote:

it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics....

To insult RNGESUS is pointless, just bend over....

I posted and people said "prove that it's not random." I can't, but really?

We also can't prove it's uniform random - not without a lot of data, anyway. But as far as I know, nobody's collecting data specific to the question of whether dupe pulls occur more often than you'd expect if drops were purely random.

The odds depend how you frame the event.. but given four random SOI mythics you opened consecutively, the chance that they're all the same card (which I think is what you're quantifying there) is 1 in 9261: 1 (first card can be anything) x (1/21)^3 (each other card must be the same as first card)

obsidianpeanut

If this is random and equally weighted for all of the cards, my chance of a repeat should be 2 out of 15.

13.333% chance of pulling a duplicate.

First pull... Sigarda.

Okay, maybe just bad luck.

Second pull... Sigarda.

I agree with the OP and I think his case shows that it isn't a true RNG.
But your actual probability of drawing a dupe was 6.7%.
13.33% is just 2/15 or saying you have 13% of the cards in the set.
The probability that you would draw a dupe for a set of 15 when you already have 2 of those cards is this:

1-(1-(1/15)) =0.0666667 or 6.6%

It is improbable that you would have drawn a dupe for the first pull, and I'd say damn near impossible that you would have drawn a 2nd dupe of the same card.

See my probability post here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=58594

E1Q1G6

Volrak wrote:

E1Q1G6 wrote:

E1Q1G6 wrote:

it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics....

To insult RNGESUS is pointless, just bend over....

I posted and people said "prove that it's not random." I can't, but really?

We also can't prove it's uniform random - not without a lot of data, anyway. But as far as I know, nobody's collecting data specific to the question of whether dupe pulls occur more often than you'd expect if drops were purely random.

The odds depend how you frame the event.. but given four random SOI mythics you opened consecutively, the chance that they're all the same card (which I think is what you're quantifying there) is 1 in 9261: 1 (first card can be anything) x (1/21)^3 (each other card must be the same as first card)

I see where your coming from with 1:9261 1/21^3), I had simply also figured the initial draw in the first in the series of "random" events (1/21^4)

Either way, that would take at least 9000 mythics pulls to pull 4 consecutive, and I wish I had pulled 9000 mythics....I would not have been complaining in that instance.

Volrak

obsidianpeanut wrote:

Woundsealer wrote:

If this is random and equally weighted for all of the cards, my chance of a repeat should be 2 out of 15.

13.333% chance of pulling a duplicate.

First pull... Sigarda.

Okay, maybe just bad luck.

Second pull... Sigarda.

I agree with the OP and I think his case shows that it isn't a true RNG.
But your actual probability of drawing a dupe was 6.7%.

See my probability post here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=58594

OP was right, it's 13.333%. See my reply to your post in your linked thread.

MTG_Mage

I dont like to complain, but I am just fed up with the really badly programmed RNG.
2 of the 3 packs were the same card, and a bad one at that, general tarzi

I figured these were a good chance since its only a pool of 15 cards and almost all of them playable, plus I had only 6/15 (of course I already had all the best ones, so just hoping for one of the decent ones and not a dupe).

Today I also had a kaladesh fatpack that I saved from the monthly reward to open when aether revolt came out...2 rares and exactly the same card, wildest dreams, which also is an unplayably bad card.

Seriously devs, take a good look at your RNG because a lot of people are getting tired of the impossible odds. With all the reports, there is no way they can say that your previous pull has no affect on the next one.

Also do something about the dupes (many threads on this with suggestions) as it is more frustrating getting a dupe than no rares/mythics at all esp knowing it will effect your next rare/mythic pull!

[Deleted User]

All 3 of my pulls were dupes.
Waste of money.

Daddystyx

Is it to much to ask for a special D3 where u have a premium option to pay an extra 100 crystals like insurance to prevent dupes?