Why do i keep pulling...

Nick441234

Some of them are really slow. It took my Black Widow ages to get back to 144, was at least 3 or 4 weeks behind everyone else.

MrTrix

One thing I have noticed, is that the 'random' isn't really random.

For example with my Standard and Elite token piles, if I clear the piles every time when I have 1-5 tokens in them, then I appear to have a very high chance of getting the same (for me unusable) tokens again and again. But if I wait until I have 50+ of them, and then collect the whole pile all at once, then I get a lot more variation. It's as if the 'random' generator goes through almost the same sequence every time that you begin.

On a sidenote, I wish I *were* pulling Ares covers... I have already maxed Storm and Wolverine, but not Ares... yet I pull dozens of Storm/Wolverine covers and no Ares covers at all...

Quebbster

MrTrix wrote:

One thing I have noticed, is that the 'random' isn't really random.

For example with my Standard and Elite token piles, if I clear the piles every time when I have 1-5 tokens in them, then I appear to have a very high chance of getting the same (for me unusable) tokens again and again. But if I wait until I have 50+ of them, and then collect the whole pile all at once, then I get a lot more variation. It's as if the 'random' generator goes through almost the same sequence every time that you begin.

On a sidenote, I wish I *were* pulling Ares covers... I have already maxed Storm and Wolverine, but not Ares... yet I pull dozens of Storm/Wolverine covers and no Ares covers at all...

The important thing to remember about random pulls is that the die has no memory, so to speak. If you pull a Storm cover, it doesn't mean your future pulls has less of a chance to get Storm covers, the chance remains the same (assuming we are talking about regular tokens, not vault tokens of course). With a large enough sample (i.e. enough opened tokens) it tends to even out and you get a wider distribution. There's very few conclusions you can draw from just a handful of pulls.

Pope Belligerent

Misunderstanding what "random" truly means is like 60% of the content of this forum.

MrTrix

Quebbster wrote:

The important thing to remember about random pulls is that the die has no memory, so to speak. If you pull a Storm cover, it doesn't mean your future pulls has less of a chance to get Storm covers, the chance remains the same (assuming we are talking about regular tokens, not vault tokens of course). With a large enough sample (i.e. enough opened tokens) it tends to even out and you get a wider distribution. There's very few conclusions you can draw from just a handful of pulls.

The important thing to remember about computers, is that they don't actually use a 'die'. There's a computer algorithm that does the randomization. And much of it depends on how that initial randomization factor is determined. And we have no idea how MPQ calculates its randomization factor. It may not really be all that random at all. Very simplistic example: if that initial randomization factor were determined by the time of day, then people who only play at specific times and only open 1 or 2 tokens each time, could easily see very similar results every single time...
Sure, if the number of tokens you open in 1 sitting, is larger, then you're right and it will eventually even out.

In short: as we don't know anything about how this game does randomization, your assumption that it will even out, is just as much speculation as my assumption that it may NOT even out in cases where you only open a few tokens every sitting...

jredd

last 2 daredevil tokens: bullseye/ares
last 2 cap tokens: ares/bullseye

i think i'll post here every time i pull these guys. i bought a couple roster spots and started farming bulls and hawkeye. next spot will be for 4* cap marvel, but then i'll hopefully get an ares going too.

jredd

3 elites from cap event

1 bullseye.

Nick441234

I've actually just purchased 12 new roster slots and am filling them with copies of all the 2*s. That way I can keep using all my level 144 2*s until I gain 13 covers for each character again.

Quebbster

nick_chicane wrote:

I've actually just purchased 12 new roster slots and am filling them with copies of all the 2*s. That way I can keep using all my level 144 2*s until I gain 13 covers for each character again.

I feel it works just fine to sell off whoever is maxed whenever I have a cover about to expire for them, but I pretty much only use my twostars for DDQ anyway, so it's not a huge loss.

jredd

9 heroics for end of season:

1 bullseye
3 ares

thanks rng!

SummerGlau

Quebbster wrote:

nick_chicane wrote:

I've actually just purchased 12 new roster slots and am filling them with copies of all the 2*s. That way I can keep using all my level 144 2*s until I gain 13 covers for each character again.

I feel it works just fine to sell off whoever is maxed whenever I have a cover about to expire for them, but I pretty much only use my twostars for DDQ anyway, so it's not a huge loss.

Usually I'm the Same With 2's but I'm getting Mileage out of Mags and Storm in Dark Avengers Heroic (Mags is featured and Storm is a reinforcement in part 1)
nice coinikidenk that they are both Champions right now
I have 7 2 star champs Steve Rogers at 60 and the rest at 15 with at or close to max covers
I'm trying to Champion the rest of the 3's (26 done with only 5 not max covered)

Nick441234

Quebbster wrote:

nick_chicane wrote:

I've actually just purchased 12 new roster slots and am filling them with copies of all the 2*s. That way I can keep using all my level 144 2*s until I gain 13 covers for each character again.

I feel it works just fine to sell off whoever is maxed whenever I have a cover about to expire for them, but I pretty much only use my twostars for DDQ anyway, so it's not a huge loss.

I never get 13 covers for a single character in 14 days so that would never work for me. Covers would just keep expiring. Plus, as someone who plays mainly PVE, trying to drag a single cover 2* into the essential fights wont go down well with my scaling.

Quebbster

nick_chicane wrote:

Quebbster wrote:

nick_chicane wrote:

I've actually just purchased 12 new roster slots and am filling them with copies of all the 2*s. That way I can keep using all my level 144 2*s until I gain 13 covers for each character again.

I feel it works just fine to sell off whoever is maxed whenever I have a cover about to expire for them, but I pretty much only use my twostars for DDQ anyway, so it's not a huge loss.

I never get 13 covers for a single character in 14 days so that would never work for me. Covers would just keep expiring. Plus, as someone who plays mainly PVE, trying to drag a single cover 2* into the essential fights wont go down well with my scaling.

Eh, if a cover is about to expire I just sell the maxed version and apply whatever covers I have to the new version. That gives me Another two weeks Before I have to sell expiring covers. I have progressed far enough that I don't need to rely on the two-star essential anyway, so it doesn't affect me a whole lot.
I may have shot myself in the foot a bit though since I don't really have any maxchamped two-stars to use in Combined Arms now, but what the heck, it's only an off-season event...

Huntah86

I know its not completely on topic but if youre 2* farming, lightning rounds are your best friend! I started 2* farming a couple months ago and have been max champing and selling at least 1 2* every week with another 2* waiting to be rostered and enough covers to champ them typically. 2* seem to drop more often in LRs for me and I usually finish t25 to get 2 heorics every LR and all that adds up FAST!

jredd

got the 300 prog cover in combined arms today.

hawkeye.

jredd

my last post was monday and haven't pulled one of the 3 since. now that i dropped 3000 hp on roster slots for them i suppose i won't be getting them so much...

alaeth

Being one of those weird people that tracks EVERY cover opened, I've got my 2016 stats up:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =669451924

Standard Tokens only - 1
Black Widow 235
Hawkeye 260
Iron Man 343
Juggernaut 238
Spider-Man 358
Storm 365
Venom 247
Yelena Belova 114*

* She was removed from Std. tokens part-way through 2016...

The numbers are actually really good. My sample pool is 2,583 tokens, and the numbers are well within 1 std deviation. If there truly was a problem with D3's RNG, you'd see a much higher skew to one character or another.

But wait! Some characters have mid 200's while others are mid 300's...

Ahh yes, but recall that some of the 1* characters are only 2 covers. Once you take that into consideration, the apparent skew disappears as the pull rate is per color, per character, not just per character.


For 2
Ares 32
OBW 33
Bullseye 30
Ms.Marvel 26
Daken 26
Hawkeye 28
Johnny 21
Magneto 34
Moonstone 22
Spider-Man
Cappy 21
Storm 26
Thor 16
Wolverine 30

I don't feel my sample size is high enough (only 345 total pulls), which is why I think Thor's results are bit laggy. But if OP is correct, I'd expect Ares/Bullseye/Hawkeye to be much higher... they seem on par with the others - all except Thor.

jredd

alaeth wrote:

Being one of those weird people that tracks EVERY cover opened, I've got my 2016 stats up:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =669451924

Standard Tokens only - 1
Black Widow 235
Hawkeye 260
Iron Man 343
Juggernaut 238
Spider-Man 358
Storm 365
Venom 247
Yelena Belova 114*

* She was removed from Std. tokens part-way through 2016...

The numbers are actually really good. My sample pool is 2,583 tokens, and the numbers are well within 1 std deviation. If there truly was a problem with D3's RNG, you'd see a much higher skew to one character or another.

But wait! Some characters have mid 200's while others are mid 300's...

Ahh yes, but recall that some of the 1* characters are only 2 covers. Once you take that into consideration, the apparent skew disappears as the pull rate is per color, per character, not just per character.


For 2
Ares 32
OBW 33
Bullseye 30
Ms.Marvel 26
Daken 26
Hawkeye 28
Johnny 21
Magneto 34
Moonstone 22
Spider-Man
Cappy 21
Storm 26
Thor 16
Wolverine 30

I don't feel my sample size is high enough (only 345 total pulls), which is why I think Thor's results are bit laggy. But if OP is correct, I'd expect Ares/Bullseye/Hawkeye to be much higher... they seem on par with the others - all except Thor.

i'm not saying those 3 characters are more common in general, just that i've been pulling a way higher amount of the 3 over the past couple months. until i dropped 3k hp to start farming them of course...

mpqr7

I can't seem to stop pulling WM Reds, even though I have him at 5 Reds already!! But only 12 covers total. If I could just pull a Green or Blue, I could champion him and save the dying covers.. but no.

jredd

in case you guy were wondering, i'm still pulling these three a seemingly disproportionate amount. my last 3 event tokens today were bullseye, ares, and bullseye. throw in a hawkeye from one of my elites and i got the trifecta!

just wanted to keep you all updated