I am the guy who opened 2 mythics in 9 big boxes! AMA

2

Comments

  • Feyda
    Feyda Posts: 105
    Still sitting at 8 BB opened, 0 mythics so I feel your pain. Have had better luck elsewhere, for my month of december SOI fatpack I got 3 mythics.
  • orgazmo
    orgazmo Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    Opened 2 Kaladesh BBs today... I dont have a single Mythic from the set.

    No Mythics on the first box.

    Second box in back to back packs... I got the same Mythic. If using a true random generator, the chances of getting the same mythic in back to back packs is really really really low.

    They dont post the chances because its manipulated to some extent and not really "random."
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    orgazmo wrote:
    Opened 2 Kaladesh BBs today... I dont have a single Mythic from the set.

    No Mythics on the first box.

    Second box in back to back packs... I got the same Mythic. If using a true random generator, the chances of getting the same mythic in back to back packs is really really really low.

    They dont post the chances because its manipulated to some extent and not really "random."
    I'm sorry you had bad luck. The chance that a Kaladesh mythic you open is the same as the last one you got is 1/17, about 6%.

    That's low odds for any individual, but high enough that it should be happening to players all the time. 1/17 means every coalition can be expected to have a player with the same bad luck. If only 10% of active event players (3,000 players) have opened two Kaladesh boxes, then 176 players of them can be expected to have shared that experience, if the cards are completely random.

    I don't know why D3 doesn't post the odds, but I agree that if they did, it would help them to be more transparent with the players, and help us set our expectations realistically when buying packs.
  • orgazmo
    orgazmo Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    edited January 2017
    Volrak wrote:
    orgazmo wrote:
    Opened 2 Kaladesh BBs today... I dont have a single Mythic from the set.

    No Mythics on the first box.

    Second box in back to back packs... I got the same Mythic. If using a true random generator, the chances of getting the same mythic in back to back packs is really really really low.

    They dont post the chances because its manipulated to some extent and not really "random."
    I'm sorry you had bad luck. The chance that a Kaladesh mythic you open is the same as the last one you got is 1/17, about 6%.

    That's low odds for any individual, but high enough that it should be happening to players all the time. 1/17 means every coalition can be expected to have a player with the same bad luck. If only 10% of active event players (3,000 players) have opened two Kaladesh boxes, then 176 players of them can be expected to have shared that experience, if the cards are completely random.

    I don't know why D3 doesn't post the odds, but I agree that if they did, it would help them to be more transparent with the players, and help us set our expectations realistically when buying packs.

    Sorry, your math isn't quite complete. The probability of two independent events happening is calculated by multiplying the probably of each independent event. So 1/17 * 1/17, or about 0.35% chance.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    orgazmo wrote:
    Sorry, your math is quite complete. The probability of two independent events happening is calculated by multiplying the probably of each independent event. So 1/17 * 1/17, or about 0.35% chance.
    The odds you've quoted are the odds of getting two of the same specific mythic card in a row. You've forgotten to multiply by 17 - getting two in a row can happen in 17 different ways (for each of the 17 possible mythics). 1/17 is the applicable odds in your case - that is, unless you'd have been perfectly happy with any two mythics in a row, except for the one you actually got two in a row of.
  • Cwest79
    Cwest79 Posts: 47 Just Dropped In
    Fix your game before you kill it
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    orgazmo wrote:
    Volrak wrote:
    orgazmo wrote:
    Opened 2 Kaladesh BBs today... I dont have a single Mythic from the set.

    No Mythics on the first box.

    Second box in back to back packs... I got the same Mythic. If using a true random generator, the chances of getting the same mythic in back to back packs is really really really low.

    They dont post the chances because its manipulated to some extent and not really "random."
    I'm sorry you had bad luck. The chance that a Kaladesh mythic you open is the same as the last one you got is 1/17, about 6%.

    That's low odds for any individual, but high enough that it should be happening to players all the time. 1/17 means every coalition can be expected to have a player with the same bad luck. If only 10% of active event players (3,000 players) have opened two Kaladesh boxes, then 176 players of them can be expected to have shared that experience, if the cards are completely random.

    I don't know why D3 doesn't post the odds, but I agree that if they did, it would help them to be more transparent with the players, and help us set our expectations realistically when buying packs.

    Sorry, your math is quite complete. The probability of two independent events happening is calculated by multiplying the probably of each independent event. So 1/17 * 1/17, or about 0.35% chance.

    And of course the guy with the bad math is the one up voted. Voltak got it right.
  • orgazmo
    orgazmo Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    edited January 2017
    Ohboy wrote:
    orgazmo wrote:
    Volrak wrote:
    orgazmo wrote:
    Opened 2
    And of course the guy with the bad math is the one up voted. Voltak got it right.

    No. I got the same specific Mythic back-to-back. The odds I stated are quite correct. Read my original post, I got the same Mythic twice in a row. You can't get more specific on the odds without knowing the algorithms they are using. The first mythic you draw, you have a 1/17 chance of getting that specific one if they are weighted evenly. The next time you draw, you still have a 1/17 chance of getting that one again. Prove me wrong with Math and not words and I will concede.

    I dont think in my entire life I've been called "the guy with bad math" lol
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    orgazmo wrote:

    No he didn't. I got the same specific Mythic back-to-back. The odds I stated are quite correct. Read my original post, I got the same Mythic twice in a row.

    I dont think in my entire life I've been called "the guy with bad math" lol

    As he explained already, unless you would be happy to have any other mythic back to back, and are only dissapointed in having this specific one out of 17 mythics back to back, then your math was wrong.

    You're calculating the probability of getting a specific mythic twice in a row, not the probability of getting the same mythic twice in a row.
    Prove me wrong with Math and not words and I will concede.

    Check pm.
  • orgazmo
    orgazmo Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    Ohboy wrote:
    orgazmo wrote:

    No he didn't. I got the same specific Mythic back-to-back. The odds I stated are quite correct. Read my original post, I got the same Mythic twice in a row.

    I dont think in my entire life I've been called "the guy with bad math" lol

    As he explained already, unless you would be happy to have any other mythic back to back, and are only dissapointed in having this specific one out of 17 mythics back to back, then your math was wrong.

    You're calculating the probability of getting a specific mythic twice in a row, not the probability of getting the same mythic twice in a row.
    Prove me wrong with Math and not words and I will concede.

    Check pm.

    Sorry! Arguing different things.

    Math for any KAL mythic (not a specific one): 17/17 (since any mythic) and then (1/17) for the next event = 1 * (1/17).

    But in reality, the % is still not valid because you would have to know the chances of pulling mythics vs other cards, and that's really the issue.
  • glggwp
    glggwp Posts: 202 Tile Toppler
    ohboy's math is really bad
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    glggwp wrote:
    ohboy's math is really bad
    Given the total absence of support for any other meaning, I guess you must be going for definition #36 at dictionary.com.

    bad
    adjective
    36. Slang. outstandingly excellent; first-rate
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    glggwp wrote:
    ohboy's math is really bad


    Err... Even orgazmo has realised he made a mistake in his calculations.

    Perhaps you want to take a stab at it?
  • losdamianos
    losdamianos Posts: 429 Mover and Shaker
    I think the term in google you all looking for is what are the odds of head if I get 9 heads in the row when I flip the coin

    SPOILER ALERT
    still 50%

    but that with the coin when we can see an can examine it physically
    players can't be 100% sure that D3 algorythm is completely random this simply without looking at source code cannot be proven so it could be possible that the 10th flip would be 0.5 to the power of 10 chance in D3 universe we simply dont know
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    I see your gambler's fallacy and raise you a Russell's teapot!
  • Reaganstorme
    Reaganstorme Posts: 334 Mover and Shaker
    Ohboy wrote:
    I see your gambler's fallacy and raise you a Russell's teapot!

    I'll call and raise with Occam's Razor.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    Reaganstorme wrote:
    Ohboy wrote:
    I see your gambler's fallacy and raise you a Russell's teapot!

    I'll call and raise with Occam's Razor.

    You can't raise me if we're playing the same hand lol.
  • Alve
    Alve Posts: 167 Tile Toppler
    *cough*
    Let's stick to the topic, k?
  • Reaganstorme
    Reaganstorme Posts: 334 Mover and Shaker
    Ohboy wrote:
    Reaganstorme wrote:
    Ohboy wrote:
    I see your gambler's fallacy and raise you a Russell's teapot!

    I'll call and raise with Occam's Razor.

    You can't raise me if we're playing the same hand lol.

    Oh, yeah.

    Was worth a shot. icon_e_wink.gif

    Back to the maths for a moment though, the chances of receiving the same mythic in consecutive big boxes is much lower than receiving them from non-consecutive big boxes, right?
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Reaganstorme wrote:
    Back to the maths for a moment though, the chances of receiving the same mythic in consecutive big boxes is much lower than receiving them from non-consecutive big boxes, right?
    It depends what you mean precisely.

    The overall chance of opening the same mythic you got in a previous box (or any other given mythic) in a future box increases as the overall number of boxes you open increases.

    But the chance of getting the same mythic in BB #2 that you got in BB #1 is identical to the chance of getting the same mythic in BB #3 (or any other box) that you got in BB #1.

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