I am the guy who opened 2 mythics in 9 big boxes! AMA

Memesforlife
Memesforlife Posts: 3
edited January 2017 in MtGPQ General Discussion
5400 crystsls for 2 mythics thats 126 packs for 2 mythics that is one mythic every 63 packs.
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Comments

  • bk1234
    bk1234 Posts: 2,924 Chairperson of the Boards
    Sorry.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0_der_5hRM
  • Pestilence
    Pestilence Posts: 45 Just Dropped In
    Well that's silly. You need to get your gambling addiction under control. Unless of course your looking for the gift that keeps on giving.....DISAPPOINTMENT!
  • Serakiel
    Serakiel Posts: 37 Just Dropped In
    That is precisely why I won't buy those packs anymore. Just be glad that your mythics weren't doubles.
  • killwind
    killwind Posts: 116 Tile Toppler
    It's not going to get any better I am at 13 big boxes with 2 Mythics. Good luck!
  • Steeme
    Steeme Posts: 784 Critical Contributor
    Welcome to the club. As long as RNG is the only way to fill your library, this will always be a problem.

    By the way, it hurts more if you are chasing specific cards.

    Best strategy I found is to open a handful of boxes when a new set is released, because you get a bunch of new cards no matter what happens. Once you start proc'ing all dupes, stop.
  • Morphis
    Morphis Posts: 975 Critical Contributor
    No you are the guy who opened three topics about being "the guy who opened 2 mythics in 9 big boxes! AMA"
    icon_lol.gif
  • Patavian
    Patavian Posts: 8
    Decided to get the "deal" today. Opened the two big boxes. No mythics at all, and all the Rares were dupes. After the first big box I thought "well that's crummy luck" so I cleared my dupes for runes to see what the next big box would get me.

    The next big box got me nothing but dupes. Yes that's 100% dupes. So needless to say not buying anymore cards till the next set I guess.
  • Falizar
    Falizar Posts: 70 Match Maker
    Wow, I must have taken all your luck. Got 6 mythics out of the 2 big boxes and only 1 was a dupe.
  • Monkeynutts
    Monkeynutts Posts: 566 Critical Contributor
    I opened 2 Kaladesh boxes today.

    6 Rares (1 is dup)

    1 Mythic, 4 Rares (1 is dup).

    That's the best two boxes I think I've ever opened.
    I think the staff @ D3Go should go on holiday more often !
  • Tilwin90
    Tilwin90 Posts: 662 Critical Contributor
    I never buy boxes like crazy because I don't invest that much into the game. Every now and then I'll get crystals or offers or some incredible mythic (like it happened with Gisela) but 9 boxes is too much for me. So I have no idea of the drop there.
    However, I did notice that "random" is not really random. In fact, with the huge card pool there is now, the chance of having the SAME FREAKING RARE drop two times in the same 4x Pack should be every now and then. I think it happened at least 5 times to me already, out of 10 or 12 such packs opened.
    Plus I also noticed that in the free boosters I keep dropping the same rares (even though the pool of rares keeps increasing with each new set).
    Guys, I don't know what's happening with the random generator there but it's not random.
    In fact, I find it annoying that unlike paper magic (or even the desktop version Magic Duels) you don't guarantee a rare/mythic rare per pack (ok, except the free one which is fine not to guarantee such a card). That's a bit bummer. It's enough that we have a problem with duplicates, but not dropping enough rares/mythics is just silly (~4 rares/box is poor seeing how much it takes to get 600 crystals).
  • Bigred5442
    Bigred5442 Posts: 17 Just Dropped In
    well, I have always pulled at least 4-5 rares/mythics from each the boxes I have opened, sometimes more (and I have always received at least one mythic so I guess I am lucky?), so the drop rates seem ok to me, even when compared to paper magic: 14 packs in a mtgpq big box = 70 cards. that would be equivalent to 4.6 paper magic booster packs, so 4-5 rares/mythics seems just right. I don't know what paper magic booster packs are going for these days, but it was ~$4.00 a pack last time I bought some I think. So $20 for an equivalent amount of paper magic cards. Crystals to buy a big box are ~$24 so its a little steep for what you get when you compare to paper magic, but not that far off.

    when I bought boxes of paper boosters, I seem to remember getting 3 or so mythics out of a box, so that would be the equivalent of 1 mythic every 2-3 mtgpq big box. that does not seem to far out of line for what the OP received to me, maybe he should have received 1 or 2 more mythics to make it right on, but that's a RNG for you. there will always be people on both sides of the bell curve.

    Dupes are another story, I want to throw my phone against a wall every time I get a dupe rare/mythic....
  • cogito
    cogito Posts: 25
    Toddy 4 rares and one was a dupe Out of the boxes.
    This was my last money for RNG boxes and Booster
  • jeremii
    jeremii Posts: 28
    It's sad that so many people said they wouldnt buy boxes anymore, yet so many more people fell for it. I have gone over 700 cards without a mythic, then i got two (same) mythics in a roll. Two Grim Flayers...glad i didnt spend any money or else i would probably kill myself...
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Especially if you're going to spend real money, do yourself a favour and give yourself a realistic expectation of what you'll get for it. Tell yourself, "I could get no mythics - quite possible. I could get all dupes - it can happen. Or I could get one or more new cards."

    Don't tell yourself lies like "I got no mythics in the last two big boxes, so the next box should be extra lucky to balance it out", or "I should be extra unlikely to open any mythics I already got, because the random algorithm should end up with even results in the long term".

    If you're realistic and comfortable with all possible outcomes, then the outcome you get will always be one you prepared yourself for.

    D3 could reduce the feeling of getting "duped" that some unlucky players have by publishing the actual odds of each rarity class. Meanwhile, data continues to be gathered to determine card ratios more accurately.
  • cogito
    cogito Posts: 25
    I think there is definitly more than one rare class. I rolled some special rares so often
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    cogito wrote:
    I think there is definitly more than one rare class. I rolled some special rares so often
    True. For example, there's the class of rare you opened a lot, and the class of rare you didn't.
  • cogito
    cogito Posts: 25
    Want you to Kidding me? I think that possibly different rares have different number values in this number based System. I hear often frome people the Special rares many times duplicating .
  • MBonott0
    MBonott0 Posts: 28 Just Dropped In
    Years ago, I have done some algorithms for random assignment of values, and I can say... it's something VERY SIMPLE to solve - check your card-collection, identify what you have in it - or not, and, then, generate your new rare when open boosters - assigning greater chances to pull cards you do not have yet.

    It's more a matter of wanting to do this, and not of unknowing how.

    "Uh, but in this way, everybody will have all cards!"

    YES! It will happen soon or later. Get over it.


    Another solution? Yup, give us a trade system and how to make lists. Want and Have lists. We will fill the Want with anything we want, and the Have with our tons of duplicates. Part of the problem dies here.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    cogito wrote:
    Want you to Kidding me? I think that possibly different rares have different number values in this number based System. I hear often frome people the Special rares many times duplicating .
    Sorry, here are the points I want to make a bit more directly:
    • It's easy to split the rares you (or anyone else) got into classes, after you've seen the actual distribution you got. I've seen people do that a lot. But these observations can be fully explained by the simple theory of uniform drop probabilities. (In fact, if some people didn't get some rares quite a bit more often than others, then a uniform drop probability couldn't explain it.)
    • If different rares actually do have different prior probabilities of dropping, we should be able to use that information to make correct and repeatable predictions of some form about the we will open in the future. I'm yet to see anyone do that.
    • I haven't even seen widespread agreement over which rares are in which supposed prior probability classes. If the phenomenon is so pronounced, that should be easy.
  • jeremii
    jeremii Posts: 28
    OMG, i just posted yesterday that i got two GRIM FLAYERs in a roll, and just opened an SOI pack today and guess what?

    Got my THIRD Grim Flayer in a roll! Yay!

    How's this even possible!?

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