Duplicate Mythics

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  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    Morphis wrote:
    Ohboy wrote:
    Morphis wrote:
    - mythics could be not truly random on purpose to push people in spending money.
    The increasing greediness they have shown in the game lead me to believe this is also a possibility.
    After all since it can't even be proved, what keeps them from doing this?
    A company is always and only restricted by laws. Its goal will alway be maximum profit.
    For sure there are no laws in regard...

    This is a common theory by people who first visit casinos. There's always accusations of cheating.

    But similarly, the best defence is to simply look at the risk/reward of that action.

    There is absolutely no need for d3go to do this. It would be utter stupidity. Simple math dictates it would take a very long time for anyone to fill their collection in any case, even if they didn't skew and cheat the mythic drops. If people would spend against the cheating mechanism to fill their collection, they would spend just as much to do so under non cheating conditions.

    On the other hand, doing so will cause a massive backlash. It's killing the golden goose.

    The optimal solution to this is very clear, and cheating the players isn't it. It would take a seriously incompetent person to suggest doing so.
    This argument is not valid once you factor in no value for morality.
    My economy teacher used to say: "economy is not moral nor immoral: it's amoral".

    Now if doing something dirty the company can increase its income by even a 1% it WILL do it.
    So even if that means buying 3 more times crystals, they would have gained something out of it.

    Mythic drops can be altered to "play with us" teasing us.
    If I get no mythic at all I'll get bored and say "oh damn I get no mythics, this game sucks".
    If I get mythics that are accepted to be duplicates more often I will say "damn I am unlucky".

    It's like with instant lottery. Recently I noticed those tend to make you "win" more often but give out basically the same money you spent.
    What is the point? Simple.
    Getting a "winning" thicket(the equivalent to getting the mythic) makes you think you have a chance on actually winning(like with dupes).
    Basically it's a sort of psychological placebo to keep you trying.

    P.s. This is for he sake of the argument.
    I am not claiming they actually do this. Just that it is a possibility.


    When I made the comparison to casinos, I hope you don't so little of me that you assume I thought casinos were moral. My explanation was likewise based on the assumption that morality had zero value in the calculations involved.

    I was trying to explain why cheating was counter productive to d3go. The upside is way too small compared to the catastrophic downside of cheating.

    It would be a poor endeavor, and extremely stupid to try.

    As for instant lotteries, they've been doing this since I can remember, and probably long before then. It's a tried and proven technique that's utilized in many events, and hardly the new secret method to get more people to play. I think you might just be winning more lately haha.
  • losdamianos
    losdamianos Posts: 429 Mover and Shaker
    Ohboy wrote:
    And complaining about more boosters... I don't even know how to respond to that.
    noone would complain about more boosters if they would have the same value as pre 1.9. There is really no reason to defend full time D3 they know what they are doing and how to properly suck some players dry icon_e_smile.gif
    and as for metric evidence I was refereing to the number of posts pre and past 1.9 with complaints about drop rates ( Again I fully welcome you to go through the forum and prove me otherwise)
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    losdamianos wrote:
    Ohboy wrote:
    And complaining about more boosters... I don't even know how to respond to that.
    noone would complain about more boosters if they would have the same value as pre 1.9. There is really no reason to defend full time D3 they know what they are doing and how to properly suck some players dry icon_e_smile.gif
    and as for metric evidence I was refereing to the number of posts pre and past 1.9 with complaints about drop rates ( Again I fully welcome you to go through the forum and prove me otherwise)

    Are you serious. Because every time a new set rolls around there's conspiracy theory posts on drop rates. 1.9 is not a crazy outlier.

    So OK I'll pretend you thought post counts being legit metric evidence for bad drop rates. Don't know why you would want me to think so little of your intelligence, but sure I'll buy it if you want.

    I'm then now super interested in knowing which post exactly you felt was the smoking gun where d3go actually admitted drop rates were decreased.
  • Morphis
    Morphis Posts: 975 Critical Contributor
    oh punto wrote:
    When I made the comparison to casinos, I hope you don't so little of me that you assume I thought casinos were moral. My explanation was likewise based on the assumption that morality had zero value in the calculations involved.

    I was trying to explain why cheating was counter productive to d3go. The upside is way too small compared to the catastrophic downside of cheating.

    It would be a poor endeavor, and extremely stupid to try.

    As for instant lotteries, they've been doing this since I can remember, and probably long before then. It's a tried and proven technique that's utilized in many events, and hardly the new secret method to get more people to play. I think you might just be winning more lately haha.
    Well my point on morality was not based on any point of your answer but was he only reason I could think your arguments could be based upon.

    Cause i still don't see where is the malus in cheating the drop rates.
    The advantage as I pointed out is there. Could be little but it's there.

    Of course there is a risk/benefit always in that. What is the risk?

    Any claim we can make is just that: it can't be proved. Even if we had like 1000 mythic drop data and that would show an high unbalance in the distribution, it could very well be the result of proper RNG.

    So if they were to be cheating we could not tell and could not prove it.
    What is the downside of doing it then?


    Also your last sentence.... What's that? An attempt at personal attack?
    Not that it matters but I don't play lottery or any gambling games cause I know it's "unfair" and made even more unfair by taxes(usually high on those games).
    I just noticed this change for instant lotteries happened not that many years ago in my country cause i have friends who buy it.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Morphis wrote:
    Any claim we can make is just that: it can't be proved. Even if we had like 1000 mythic drop data and that would show an high unbalance in the distribution, it could very well be the result of proper RNG.
    Actually, with sufficient data we can make statements such as (for example) "the mythic drop rate is between 0.5% and 1%" with some confidence level (e.g. 95%). Confidence levels are basic to all statistics, and there are simple equations relating the confidence level you'd like to have with the number of samples you'll need to get it.

    There's enough data in the free boosters opened by the player base in a single day to know the mythic drop rate +/- 0.1%, with well over 99.9% confidence. All we need is to capture it. I refer you once again to Octal's spreadsheet in which data is being gathered, and which you can contribute to, if you would like to know the drop rate with confidence sooner: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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