Duplicate Mythics

E1Q1G6

So, no gripes here at all just curious. As the chance of getting a mythic is already (some say ridiculously) low, should the likelihood of duplicate be even lower? I have 15/33 SOI and EMN mythics. I recent got U Hydra in a mythic pack, and have now 3 times pulled a duplicate in packs since getting it, I would think the chances would be much greater of getting one of the 50% of the mythics I don't already have than pulling the same mythic 4 times. This truly can't be random, and I am just very curious of some short of answer, as the only answer I get from support is "We can't control the RNG that gives cards, you are not gaurunteed any thing when opening packs." Which in reality is not even answering my question, simply making a statement I am already obviously aware of. Cheers! I know many have griped/complained about this in the past, but I am more in search of a reason how this supposedly random event is very much not as even someone with very basic knowledge of statistics could tell you.

Ohboy

As someone with a very basic knowledge of statistics, it is not at all impossible that you pull 4 duplicates in a row when you already have half the available mythics.

The problem with these statements is that none of us have any data sets of significance to actually draw any valid conclusions, saying things like "truly can't be random" is far from actual truth.

E1Q1G6

I'm not talking about duplicates in general, I am referancomg the EXACT SAME CARD, 4X in a row. The exact chance alone of pulling the same mythic card 4 ktimes in a row is about 0.00008% (8 in 100,000) just by completely pulling from only mythics from SOI/EMN alone (33), not including the odds from a free booster which 2 have been from, greatly increasing the pool size of available cards and decreasing the likelihood of randomly pulling the same card. So, yes, there is a "chance." I am just saying not very likely, especially as I have repeated this x4 pull 3 previous times with other cards consecutively.

E1Q1G6

Now factor in that you are not pulling from only mythics, I guess if you factor this over all players and it is not astronomical, but to have this to happen as frequently as it does and be random?

Monkeynutts

The rares and mythics are rated by D3Go as well so some are more likely than others...... strange but true in my opinion. There are many i have never seen and some like dragonmaster outcast i have pulled SIX times before...

Shadow76

Ohboy wrote:

As someone with a very basic knowledge of statistics, it is not at all impossible that you pull 4 duplicates in a row when you already have half the available mythics.

The problem with these statements is that none of us have any data sets of significance to actually draw any valid conclusions, saying things like "truly can't be random" is far from actual truth.

First of all Ohboy stfu you are such an apologist. The truth is no one knows the algorithm they use so no one can answer your question. I suspect the game looks at your inventory and weights those cards more than new cards as that would satisfy both giving you a mythic and keeping you needing more cards.

Steeme

Shadow76 wrote:

Ohboy wrote:

As someone with a very basic knowledge of statistics, it is not at all impossible that you pull 4 duplicates in a row when you already have half the available mythics.

The problem with these statements is that none of us have any data sets of significance to actually draw any valid conclusions, saying things like "truly can't be random" is far from actual truth.

First of all Ohboy stfu you are such an apologist. The truth is no one knows the algorithm they use so no one can answer your question. I suspect the game looks at your inventory and weights those cards more than new cards as that would satisfy both giving you a mythic and keeping you needing more cards.

Really? You think that they deliberately give you dupes to keep you chasing cards? That.. is.. just.. wow. Boggles the mind.

losdamianos

Ohboy wrote:

As someone with a very basic knowledge of statistics, it is not at all impossible that you pull 4 duplicates in a row when you already have half the available mythics.

The problem with these statements is that none of us have any data sets of significance to actually draw any valid conclusions, saying things like "truly can't be random" is far from actual truth.

Using your "very basic knowledge of statistics" If somoene would pull 100x times in a row same mythic you would still argue that this is possible and there is nothing wrong with this game and glorious D3 is great because it would fit your schema of random number generations

Lets ignore countless threads which were created since 1.9 release, lets just look somewhere else and explain everything with "Well technically its possible and becuase You dont have time machine and cant bring any HARD evidence showing that drop rates was better pre 1.9 I will assume everything is fine and dandy"

J23flo

losdamianos wrote:

Lets ignore countless threads which were created since 1.9 release, lets just look somewhere else and explain everything with "Well technically its possible and becuase You dont have time machine and cant bring any HARD evidence showing that drop rates was better pre 1.9 I will assume everything is fine and dandy"

There were "countless" threads before update 1.9. People are going to complain no matter what. Perception bias can be very strong. For every big box without a mythic in it there are stories of people pulling something like Olivia from free daily packs. Hell, I have pulled Excert Influence and Crush of Tentacles form free daily packs. Without hard data, every complaint and every story of good pulls is purely conjecture.

GrizzoMtGPQ

Previous results have no bearing on future behavior with respect to probability. The specific outcome you are looking at is just as likely or unlikely as pulling any other set of 4 mythics. From experience the way RNGesus answers prayers around here, it seems that you will get some mythics more than others and likely the one you want the most you will never get.

Ohboy

losdamianos wrote:

Ohboy wrote:

As someone with a very basic knowledge of statistics, it is not at all impossible that you pull 4 duplicates in a row when you already have half the available mythics.

The problem with these statements is that none of us have any data sets of significance to actually draw any valid conclusions, saying things like "truly can't be random" is far from actual truth.

Using your "very basic knowledge of statistics" If somoene would pull 100x times in a row same mythic you would still argue that this is possible and there is nothing wrong with this game and glorious D3 is great because it would fit your schema of random number generations

Lets ignore countless threads which were created since 1.9 release, lets just look somewhere else and explain everything with "Well technically its possible and becuase You dont have time machine and cant bring any HARD evidence showing that drop rates was better pre 1.9 I will assume everything is fine and dandy"

Sigh once again I'm forced to call you out on your previous rumour mongering statements. I'm beginning to think you're not just unable to find your sources, but made them up out of thin air.

Please provide links to your two extraordinary claims:

1) there is someone with significant data that proves drop rates dropped

2) d3go has admitted to dropping the rates.

The burden of proof always lies on someone making a claim. If someone claims to know drop rates are weighted against his existing collection, he has to provide the proof.

And no, in your example, the result is significant. That's the critical keyword. Significant.

Every single one of these complaints have been pure speculation and opinion. That's why I've been an "apologist". There's nothing to apologize for. None of you have data to back your claims. When someone asks me what post truth means, I can point to your comments on drop rates as a perfect example.

Go ahead. Make me a believer. Provide either one of those sources you claimed to have, and I would instantly believe you.

E1Q1G6

Oh boy Ohboy, burden of proof? That's funny tiny kitty. The fact of the matter is I could pull 12500 mythics and once get 4 of the same in a row consecutively (just by simple probability alone). I have done this 3 times and not pulled near that many. In proving theories or studies, part of the burden of proof is reproducibility. Either I am lucky as tiny kitty, or there is some other process directing specific card drops. Ohboy, you ask for proof, and I have given you my experience, which seems to be proof enough, and you have not proved this is random either. I am merely sharing my observations, and you answer has more or less been, "anything is possible." While I can't prove I have not pulled 37500 mythics for this to occur 3 times, I think it is safe to assume that NO PLAYER has pulled that many. You watch to much syndicated Law and Order....burden of proof, funny tiny kitty.

Ohboy

E1Q1G6 wrote:

Oh boy Ohboy, burden of proof? That's funny tiny kitty. The fact of the matter is I could pull 12500 mythics and once get 4 of the same in a row consecutively (just by simple probability alone). I have done this 3 times and not pulled near that many. In proving theories or studies, part of the burden of proof is reproducibility. Either I am lucky as tiny kitty, or there is some other process directing specific card drops. Ohboy, you ask for proof, and I have given you my experience, which seems to be proof enough, and you have not proved this is random either. I am merely sharing my observations, and you answer has more or less been, "anything is possible." While I can't prove I have not pulled 37500 mythics for this to occur 3 times, I think it is safe to assume that NO PLAYER has pulled that many. You watch to much syndicated Law and Order....burden of proof, funny tiny kitty.

If you bothered to read my response at all, you would have figured out I was calling out losdamianos for his repeated outlandish claims, and Shadow76 for his theory of weighted mythics for which he had no evidence.

Even they have stayed silent because they can't offer a shred of proof for their conspiracy theories. Why are you jumping in blindly and swinging kittens around like a madman?

losdamianos

Sorry for the delay Ohboy been busy with festive stuff...

Problem is that You know well that noone has hard evidence of pre and past 1.9 drop rates hence its very convenient for You to defend D3 and say I will not believe in drop rate decrease unless You show me proof. This is pointless, Go back few pages and see how many threads and players participated in critisizing D3 about drop rates before and after 1.9. To add salt to an injury look how cleverly D3 added quick Events and Fatpacks in top tiers just so You think you have more "useless" boosters to open. Again false impression of "more cards"
I have also recently sunk 1800 crystals in 3 BB just to get 1Mythic and 7Rares but does it matter if I didnt record it ? I gained "personal experience" which I feel means nothing to you

This data you are asking for doesnt exist ( and You know it ) hence this argument will never be resolved ....

Merry Christmas

Morphis

My observations about the game and knowledge about statistics lead me to believe In the following by cases:

- random algorithm could be fine and we just see patterns in it. Pulling 4 of the same mythics? Which mythic? Cause then you have to multiply the chances for a he number of mythics.
Ok what about three? What about 4-3-3 in 10 mythics? All those are different "unlucky" stuff that can(or I should say HAVE TO) happen in a truly random environment.
Cause if this could not happen then the numbers are not properly generated.

- random algorithm could be failing. This is a possibility. It could be that it's made on "good purpose" to give more variety and fails horribly cause of bug.
The amount of bugs in the game makes this a possibility.

- mythics could be not truly random on purpose to push people in spending money.
The increasing greediness they have shown in the game lead me to believe this is also a possibility.
After all since it can't even be proved, what keeps them from doing this?
A company is always and only restricted by laws. Its goal will alway be maximum profit.
For sure there are no laws in regard...

Volrak

losdamianos wrote:

This data you are asking for doesnt exist ( and You know it ) hence this argument will never be resolved ....

Actually, drop rate data is n the process of being gathered, and once it's gathered, the main drop rate argument will indeed be resolved. Data specific to dupes could be gathered too, but my thinking is that once the drop rate is known, then if you get a dupe according to that drop rate, it doesn't really matter which dupe it is.

If you'd like to help, then add your pack data to Octal's spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

We need thousands of samples to get a strong answer, but people open thousands of cards daily. If everyone added their cards, we could know the drop rate with high confidence today.

The only caution is to avoid adding biased data. Generally, if you make a decision to add before you open a pack, it will be unbiased, but if you decide to add data in response to what you get in a pack or set of packs then it may be biased.

Ohboy

losdamianos wrote:

Sorry for the delay Ohboy been busy with festive stuff...

Problem is that You know well that noone has hard evidence of pre and past 1.9 drop rates hence its very convenient for You to defend D3 and say I will not believe in drop rate decrease unless You show me proof. This is pointless, Go back few pages and see how many threads and players participated in critisizing D3 about drop rates before and after 1.9. To add salt to an injury look how cleverly D3 added quick Events and Fatpacks in top tiers just so You think you have more "useless" boosters to open. Again false impression of "more cards"
I have also recently sunk 1800 crystals in 3 BB just to get 1Mythic and 7Rares but does it matter if I didnt record it ? I gained "personal experience" which I feel means nothing to you

This data you are asking for doesnt exist ( and You know it ) hence this argument will never be resolved ....

Merry Christmas

Of course it doesn't exist. But you claimed it did. So I'm did the courtesy of giving you the benefit of the doubt and asked you to back up your statements. You spread disinformation on this topic everywhere claiming things that just aren't true. And I've been patient. I've asked you for it, and given you time to track down your links. You've given me zero reply for a week.

I think you have completely missed the point, perhaps You're not opening any big boxes and just hunting for an anecdotal evidence like this post which seems to be an exception of the rule but thats ok Anyone can make a mistake but please stop ignoring previous threads where metric proof has been provided with decent sample size before 1.9 BigBoxes yielded much more
than they are now this is coming from experienced players.

And now you're telling me it doesn't exist. See the way things work is... If you point to something as evidence to support your points, you can't just wave your hands later and say "oh of course it doesn't exist and you know it" when people ask you to provide that evidence.

The point is that I shouldn't need to defend d3go from your ridiculous accusations when you're doing it from made up evidence. Just don't claim to have data or word from the devs when you don't. It's not rocket science.

You just admitted this wasn't due to a misplaced link. It wasn't just due to exaggeration. You were flat out lying.

And complaining about more boosters... I don't even know how to respond to that.

E1Q1G6

Morphis wrote:

My observations about the game and knowledge about statistics lead me to believe In the following by cases:

- random algorithm could be fine and we just see patterns in it. Pulling 4 of the same mythics? Which mythic? Cause then you have to multiply the chances for a he number of mythics.
Ok what about three? What about 4-3-3 in 10 mythics? All those are different "unlucky" stuff that can(or I should say HAVE TO) happen in a truly random environment.
Cause if this could not happen then the numbers are not properly generated.

- random algorithm could be failing. This is a possibility. It could be that it's made on "good purpose" to give more variety and fails horribly cause of bug.
The amount of bugs in the game makes this a possibility.

- mythics could be not truly random on purpose to push people in spending money.
The increasing greediness they have shown in the game lead me to believe this is also a possibility.
After all since it can't even be proved, what keeps them from doing this?
A company is always and only restricted by laws. Its goal will alway be maximum profit.
For sure there are no laws in regard...

My guess is the latter of those 3 options, but in all honesty, it doesn't matter as there is no way to change it, there are even several uncommons I would like, but cannot seem to get, certain ly not worth buy packsome trying to get these.....live to fight another day.

Ohboy

Morphis wrote:

- mythics could be not truly random on purpose to push people in spending money.
The increasing greediness they have shown in the game lead me to believe this is also a possibility.
After all since it can't even be proved, what keeps them from doing this?
A company is always and only restricted by laws. Its goal will alway be maximum profit.
For sure there are no laws in regard...

This is a common theory by people who first visit casinos. There's always accusations of cheating.

But similarly, the best defence is to simply look at the risk/reward of that action.

There is absolutely no need for d3go to do this. It would be utter stupidity. Simple math dictates it would take a very long time for anyone to fill their collection in any case, even if they didn't skew and cheat the mythic drops. If people would spend against the cheating mechanism to fill their collection, they would spend just as much to do so under non cheating conditions.

On the other hand, doing so will cause a massive backlash. It's killing the golden goose.

The optimal solution to this is very clear, and cheating the players isn't it. It would take a seriously incompetent person to suggest doing so.

span_argoman

losdamianos wrote:

Problem is that You know well that noone has hard evidence of pre and past 1.9 drop rates hence its very convenient for You to defend D3 and say I will not believe in drop rate decrease unless You show me proof. This is pointless, Go back few pages and see how many threads and players participated in critisizing D3 about drop rates before and after 1.9.

Actually, I believe someone from the coalition alliance mentioned that they did some data collection of their own at some point, probably around 1.7. They never did share the data though so who knows what the result of it was.

Also, I've been collecting data since 1.5. So technically the data exists, but due to its small sample size it has a big error margin. My data doesn't seem to point to some massive drop in drop rates for 1.9.

Morphis

Ohboy wrote:

Morphis wrote:

- mythics could be not truly random on purpose to push people in spending money.
The increasing greediness they have shown in the game lead me to believe this is also a possibility.
After all since it can't even be proved, what keeps them from doing this?
A company is always and only restricted by laws. Its goal will alway be maximum profit.
For sure there are no laws in regard...

This is a common theory by people who first visit casinos. There's always accusations of cheating.

But similarly, the best defence is to simply look at the risk/reward of that action.

There is absolutely no need for d3go to do this. It would be utter stupidity. Simple math dictates it would take a very long time for anyone to fill their collection in any case, even if they didn't skew and cheat the mythic drops. If people would spend against the cheating mechanism to fill their collection, they would spend just as much to do so under non cheating conditions.

On the other hand, doing so will cause a massive backlash. It's killing the golden goose.

The optimal solution to this is very clear, and cheating the players isn't it. It would take a seriously incompetent person to suggest doing so.

This argument is not valid once you factor in no value for morality.
My economy teacher used to say: "economy is not moral nor immoral: it's amoral".

Now if doing something dirty the company can increase its income by even a 1% it WILL do it.
So even if that means buying 3 more times crystals, they would have gained something out of it.

Mythic drops can be altered to "play with us" teasing us.
If I get no mythic at all I'll get bored and say "oh damn I get no mythics, this game sucks".
If I get mythics that are accepted to be duplicates more often I will say "damn I am unlucky".

It's like with instant lottery. Recently I noticed those tend to make you "win" more often but give out basically the same money you spent.
What is the point? Simple.
Getting a "winning" thicket(the equivalent to getting the mythic) makes you think you have a chance on actually winning(like with dupes).
Basically it's a sort of psychological placebo to keep you trying.

P.s. This is for he sake of the argument.
I am not claiming they actually do this. Just that it is a possibility.