Positive Experience with Drop Rates :)

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Comments

  • alextfish
    alextfish Posts: 192
    I was really chuffed to open the Origins booster progression reward a week or so ago and finally, finally get Thopter Spy Network. It is just as hideously hilarious paired with Drowner of Hope as I'd thought it would be. It unlocks my Saheeli to do funky things (or it did before they killed her ultimate). It encourages me to pick up Tezzeret from the vault. I have 33 mythics now, and I'm basically a free player (my one IAP was Jace2). I have nothing to grumble about on the drop rates.
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,959 Chairperson of the Boards
    Ohboy wrote:
    Mainloop25 wrote:
    We have all gotten lucky packs before, the problem is the baseline.

    Even shteev admits the baseline is an average of about a mythic a box.

    Sounds quite fair to me. What's wrong with it?

    There's no way the average is about a mythic a box, that's the whole reason there is a complaint.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Mainloop25 wrote:
    There's no way the average is about a mythic a box, that's the whole reason there is a complaint.
    Really? If the mythic drop rate was 1 in 70 cards (i.e. a long term average of 1 per big box), then the chance of getting n mythics in a single big box would be roughly:
    n=0: 36.5%
    n=1: 37.0%
    n=2: 18.5%
    n=3: 6.1%
    n=4+: 1.8%

    Seems about right to me.
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,959 Chairperson of the Boards
    That would be right, except that they have tweaked those rates
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Mainloop25 wrote:
    That would be right, except that they have tweaked those rates
    I can't possibly disagree that you believe this.

    Anyway, since this is the positive drop rate thread, I should mention that my pulls from two 1-card mythic packs were Avacyn and Evolutionary Leap (both new), and yesterday I pulled Avaricious Dragon (also new) from the holiday bonus 1-card pack (which had given me all uncommons until that point).
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
    There's really no point merely arguing over what the drop rates are. Collect some data in as impartial a way as possible, and let's see if there's any evidence that it's changed.

    This thread is all just confirmation bias. It's nice to hear stories of that awesome booster you just got, but the plural of anecdote is not data.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    buscemi wrote:
    There's really no point merely arguing over what the drop rates are. Collect some data in as impartial a way as possible, and let's see if there's any evidence that it's changed.

    This thread is all just confirmation bias. It's nice to hear stories of that awesome booster you just got, but the plural of anecdote is not data.


    This is true. But someone mentioned before they had hard data. I'm still hoping them reply to me on that front.
  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
    I too would be interested to see the results from the person claiming to have hard data whom Ohboy mentioned. Meanwhile, I'll just post the results of my own collection:

    Past drop rates from my own drops only
    Drops are aggregated across 5-card boosters, Fat Packs and Big Boxes cause my data sets are puny otherwise.

    1.6 - 1.7 (SOI latest set)
    Packs from BFZ+OGW set, total 350 cards
    C: 189 (54.0%)
    U: 143 (40.9%)
    R: 011 (3.1%)
    M: 007 (2.0%)

    Packs from SOI set, total 850 cards
    C: 484 (56.9%)
    U: 329 (38.7%)
    R: 029 (3.4%)
    M: 008 (0.9%)

    Total mythics from Big Boxes across sets: 7 from 7

    1.7.1 - 1.8 (EM latest set)
    Packs from BFZ+OGW set, total 200 cards
    C: 103 (51.5%)
    U: 089 (44.5%)
    R: 006 (3.0%)
    M: 002 (1.0%)

    Packs from SOI+EM set, total 625 cards
    C: 320 (51.2%)
    U: 268 (42.9%)
    R: 036 (5.8%)
    M: 001 (0.2%)

    Total mythics from Big Boxes across sets: 2 from 8

    * All statistics exclude guaranteed cards of any rarity


    My stand is that the sample size is too small and the percentage differences could be from a bad run of Big Boxes. I can see some people will be eager to claim this as proof that drop rates have dropped. If only we had a bigger data set to analyse.
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,959 Chairperson of the Boards
    Volrak wrote:
    Mainloop25 wrote:
    That would be right, except that they have tweaked those rates
    I can't possibly disagree that you believe this.

    Anyway, since this is the positive drop rate thread, I should mention that my pulls from two 1-card mythic packs were Avacyn and Evolutionary Leap (both new), and yesterday I pulled Avaricious Dragon (also new) from the holiday bonus 1-card pack (which had given me all uncommons until that point).

    I didn't ask you to disagree with me icon_e_wink.gif
  • OhanaUnited
    OhanaUnited Posts: 85 Match Maker
    I did notice the drop rate went up slightly. On Tuesday I had two 5-card booster and both yielded a mythic. And today I bought a fat pack and yielded a mythic as well. It's finally looking better
  • Feyda
    Feyda Posts: 105
    Eh, personal experience may vary.... Ive opened 8 big boxes now since starting this game, 0 mythic pulls from any of them. I only have 12 mythics total, 2 of them were the mythic buy for crystals they just did and 1 was ulrich that i finally broke down and paid for.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    span_argoman wrote:
    I too would be interested to see the results from the person claiming to have hard data whom Ohboy mentioned. Meanwhile, I'll just post the results of my own collection:

    Past drop rates from my own drops only
    Drops are aggregated across 5-card boosters, Fat Packs and Big Boxes cause my data sets are puny otherwise.

    1.6 - 1.7 (SOI latest set)
    Packs from BFZ+OGW set, total 350 cards
    C: 189 (54.0%)
    U: 143 (40.9%)
    R: 011 (3.1%)
    M: 007 (2.0%)

    Packs from SOI set, total 850 cards
    C: 484 (56.9%)
    U: 329 (38.7%)
    R: 029 (3.4%)
    M: 008 (0.9%)

    Total mythics from Big Boxes across sets: 7 from 7

    1.7.1 - 1.8 (EM latest set)
    Packs from BFZ+OGW set, total 200 cards
    C: 103 (51.5%)
    U: 089 (44.5%)
    R: 006 (3.0%)
    M: 002 (1.0%)

    Packs from SOI+EM set, total 625 cards
    C: 320 (51.2%)
    U: 268 (42.9%)
    R: 036 (5.8%)
    M: 001 (0.2%)

    Total mythics from Big Boxes across sets: 2 from 8

    * All statistics exclude guaranteed cards of any rarity


    My stand is that the sample size is too small and the percentage differences could be from a bad run of Big Boxes. I can see some people will be eager to claim this as proof that drop rates have dropped. If only we had a bigger data set to analyse.

    It's always nice to have data. Unfortunately I'm always too eager to open new packs and don't document properly.

    losdamianos is the guy who said there was data available. He doesn't seem to reply to me. Maybe he will to you.
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
    Just opened my 3rd kaladesh big box without a mythic in it. I'm positive that happened.
  • octal9
    octal9 Posts: 593 Critical Contributor
    I've started a drop rate research spreadsheet for initial data collection. I'll be implementing something similar on the mtgpq.info website.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    octal9 wrote:
    I've started a drop rate research spreadsheet for initial data collection. I'll be implementing something similar on the mtgpq.info website.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
    Great idea, I'm looking forward to the chance to finally see some real data on this. If you let anyone submit data, it would be good to encourage them to commit to submitting data for all of the packs they open, to avoid biases that might occur if some people are naturally motivated only to submit especially bad or good results.
  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
    octal9 wrote:
    I've started a drop rate research spreadsheet for initial data collection. I'll be implementing something similar on the mtgpq.info website.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
    You'll be wanting a column to note the game version and also a separate for guaranteed rares/cards. Otherwise your drops are going to be distorted by guaranteed rares and possibly by the changing card distributions when a new set is released.
  • IamTheDanger
    IamTheDanger Posts: 1,093 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have no idea about drop rates changing. But I do know that I was unnaturally lucky over the weekend.

    In the free packs we get every 8 hours, I opened 4 in a row that contained a rare. Then, the last one, the 5th had a rare AND a mythic.

    Course, after that, I opened my big mouth and posted about it on Slack and jinxed myself. So it's back the regular cards now unless I sacrifice a goat to RNGesus or something.

    So whether the drop rates have changed or not, it was nice while it lasted.
  • octal9
    octal9 Posts: 593 Critical Contributor
    span_argoman wrote:
    You'll be wanting a column to note the game version and also a separate for guaranteed rares/cards. Otherwise your drops are going to be distorted by guaranteed rares and possibly by the changing card distributions when a new set is released.
    Both of these issues are solved in the design doc for the site's implementation. The spreadsheet is just to get the ball rolling on data collection for now. icon_e_smile.gif

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