Small Vaults aren't that bad....let me explain

Fightmastermpq

Akari wrote:

I've always counted a 4* cover as being worth 2500 HP, since that's what it cost to buy them back when that was available. For these small vaults, they're ok, but the pure number of terrible rewards (70% 2*?!?!?!) really ruins it. Plus they've all been for generally not good characters so far. Well, DPX was good, but I'm not gonna spend 3000 hp on a champ level. Champ level rewards will never be worth 2500 hp (unless it's an LT, but even then...)

I think only certain 4* covers are worth 2500 HP - back when you could whale a 1/1/1 to max for 2500 HP each it was worth it, but if you are a 1/1/1 XFDP, that one extra cover by itself is NOT worth 2500 HP IMO. And champ levels definitely aren't worth that much HP either. I would only spend on one of these vaults if it was a character that I wanted to champ and was missing the specific cover that is in there to do it.

Bowgentle

You're not spending 3000 HP on one 4* cover.
You're spending it on one 4* cover, a few 3*, some ISO, and some 2s.

If you're swimming in HP, which you very well may be with 30+ champed 4s, all champed 3s and a 2* farm, 3K HP is nothing.

bbigler

GurlBYE wrote:

bbigler wrote:

snlf25 wrote:

Small vaults are bad if the 4* cover is bad. I'd clear one out for a Peggy in a heartbeat but keep my hp with most anybody else up for grabs right now. I've finished most everybody else the old fashioned way, desperate to have a champion Peggy now. Not too many people are going to get that excited for a new and improved bag lady I'd imagine.

IW works pretty well with Carnage; she can both give team invisibility for 2 turns, create protect tiles and lock-out enemy attack tiles while creating strike tiles. Her green also hits pretty hard. She is much better now, people just need to give her a chance. Combine her with StarLord and you could handle any amount of special tiles.

Carnage is a bad idea in most facets of the game unless you're forced to use him and anyone strong you can use with IW would be stronger with a good character.

and the vaults keep being mentioned in the sense of that 3000 HP being the final cover.

if you are sitting around with 5 covers in IW spending 3,000 HP for a hero is a waste.

if you have them champed, Spending 3,000 HP for that 1 cover is a waste.

That 3000 HP can be 3 roster slots for the bi-weekly 4* releases, or a new 5 you bump into during a legendary pull

could be 30 daily pulls from various other vaults (30 champ rewards instead of 20)

There isn't really a good sell on these.

At this point players are trying harder then the devs to sell us on the value of these vaults.

In fact they'd probably be improved with proper feedback.

You don't understand. I clearly stated that it doesn't cost 3000 HP to get the 4* cover, it costs an average of 1500 HP. Read the entire OP, not just the first line and start responding. And since we currently have to use Carnage in PvE, IW pairs well with him.

GurlBYE

bbigler wrote:

GurlBYE wrote:

bbigler wrote:

snlf25 wrote:

Small vaults are bad if the 4* cover is bad. I'd clear one out for a Peggy in a heartbeat but keep my hp with most anybody else up for grabs right now. I've finished most everybody else the old fashioned way, desperate to have a champion Peggy now. Not too many people are going to get that excited for a new and improved bag lady I'd imagine.

IW works pretty well with Carnage; she can both give team invisibility for 2 turns, create protect tiles and lock-out enemy attack tiles while creating strike tiles. Her green also hits pretty hard. She is much better now, people just need to give her a chance. Combine her with StarLord and you could handle any amount of special tiles.

Carnage is a bad idea in most facets of the game unless you're forced to use him and anyone strong you can use with IW would be stronger with a good character.

and the vaults keep being mentioned in the sense of that 3000 HP being the final cover.

if you are sitting around with 5 covers in IW spending 3,000 HP for a hero is a waste.

if you have them champed, Spending 3,000 HP for that 1 cover is a waste.

That 3000 HP can be 3 roster slots for the bi-weekly 4* releases, or a new 5 you bump into during a legendary pull

could be 30 daily pulls from various other vaults (30 champ rewards instead of 20)

There isn't really a good sell on these.

At this point players are trying harder then the devs to sell us on the value of these vaults.

In fact they'd probably be improved with proper feedback.

You don't understand. I clearly stated that it doesn't cost 3000 HP to get the 4* cover, it costs an average of 1500 HP. Read the entire OP, not just the first line and start responding. And since we currently have to use Carnage in PvE, IW pairs well with him.

I read you whole post, and I understand it. You are essentially saying on AVERAGE, so not guaranteed, you will spend around 1500 HP per vault.

I'm saying, the vaults aren't a good deal, and even on a one token at a time basis 1500 HP average, aka sometimes above sometimes below, still isn't a great value. They actually can be worse if you don't have the 4 champed because if you have 5 in that color and aren't near champing you'd want to avoid the vault.

You notice your post doesn't say "the vaults are good"
Just they "aren't that bad".

People have already chimed in and used champs as a reason they are semi-redeemable.
The averages don't do anything because you may sometimes get the 4 in 1 token, sometimes you'll spend all 3,000 HP.

Also as I said, Other characters work better with carnage, the best ones being, characters that are always good.

TetsujinOni

notamutant wrote:

bones wrote:

notamutant wrote:

bbigler wrote:

Since this forum likes mathematical analysis, here's something to consider. First, these small 4* vaults look like a bad deal at 3000 HP for 20 tokens to empty the vault. But, if you pull from these small vaults one token at a time (150 HP), your odds of getting the 4* cover increase with each pull. So, for example, you might get the 4* cover after 7 pulls and in another vault after 13 pulls. Over time, it will average out to 10 pulls (50%) to get the cover. Which means that on average, you would spend 1500 HP to get a specific 4* cover, and that isn't a bad deal (I can accumulate 1500 HP in about 3 - 4 days). So, if you need the showcased 4* cover and you have HP to burn, then pull one by one until you get it. Some days it will cost 1000 HP and other times 2000 HP, but it will average out to 1500 HP.

What about the other vaults?

Well, the PvE Vault (80 prizes) has a much higher cost for a single pull (400 HP) after the "daily deal". If you bought 10 tokens for the 2800 HP daily deal, then you have a 50% chance of getting 1 of 3 known 4* covers or an LT (unknown cover). Combine this 10 pack with tokens you win from the event, and your total odds go up to about 80%. This certainly is not nearly as good of a deal as the small 4* vault.

The Taco Vault is good and bad. 3 out of 300 total prizes is a 4* cover, a 1% chance per pull. If you pulled one at a time for 200 HP each, then it would take 50 pulls to hit the 50% mark, which is the average. That totals 10,000 HP, but since we can win 2 tokens per day, you could hoard your taco tokens for 30 days and have a 60% chance without spending any HP. If you still miss a 4* cover, then you could pull one at a time until you do or just hoard longer.

Where are you getting the odds averaging out to 50% chance to pull the cover in 10 pulls? Please share your math. As far as I can tell, it would less than that, but I am too lazy to find the formula or calculator to determine it. Just thinking logically, the odds will continuously be lower than 50% until you pull 18 covers, so it cannot possibly be 50% to pull the cover on average after 10 tries.

50% is the probability of getting a specific reward out of 20 with 10 pulls, not a single pull (e.g the 19th pull).

Mind showing me the formula (or website that calculates this)? I forgot my college stats stuff, so I am not seeing how you guys are getting this value. Would appreciate the refresher. Thanks.

Take a look below Card draws tool.

Amusingly, I know the guy that wrote the page, but it was the first up in a quick google search for that refresher.

bbigler

GurlBYE wrote:

I read you whole post, and I understand it. You are essentially saying on AVERAGE, so not guaranteed, you will spend around 1500 HP per vault.

I'm saying, the vaults aren't a good deal, and even on a one token at a time basis 1500 HP average, aka sometimes above sometimes below, still isn't a great value. They actually can be worse if you don't have the 4 champed because if you have 5 in that color and aren't near champing you'd want to avoid the vault.

You notice your post doesn't say "the vaults are good"
Just they "aren't that bad".

People have already chimed in and used champs as a reason they are semi-redeemable.
The averages don't do anything because you may sometimes get the 4 in 1 token, sometimes you'll spend all 3,000 HP.

Also as I said, Other characters work better with carnage, the best ones being, characters that are always good.

I agree that if your 4* is champed, then it's not worth it, but if you need that specific 4* cover, then it is worth it. There's a 5% chance you'll spend 3000 HP to get the cover, but there's also a 5% chance you'll get the cover on the 1st pull too. It would average out over time. Don't forget that the other covers you get are redeemable for champion rewards also.

GurlBYE

bbigler wrote:

GurlBYE wrote:

I read you whole post, and I understand it. You are essentially saying on AVERAGE, so not guaranteed, you will spend around 1500 HP per vault.

I'm saying, the vaults aren't a good deal, and even on a one token at a time basis 1500 HP average, aka sometimes above sometimes below, still isn't a great value. They actually can be worse if you don't have the 4 champed because if you have 5 in that color and aren't near champing you'd want to avoid the vault.

You notice your post doesn't say "the vaults are good"
Just they "aren't that bad".

People have already chimed in and used champs as a reason they are semi-redeemable.
The averages don't do anything because you may sometimes get the 4 in 1 token, sometimes you'll spend all 3,000 HP.

Also as I said, Other characters work better with carnage, the best ones being, characters that are always good.

I agree that if your 4* is champed, then it's not worth it, but if you need that specific 4* cover, then it is worth it. There's a 5% chance you'll spend 3000 HP to get the cover, but there's also a 5% chance you'll get the cover on the 1st pull too. It would average out over time. Don't forget that the other covers you get are redeemable for champion rewards also.

yeah it seems to have it's rare usage but it'd be awesome to just see better vaults in general and a much much better 4 star transition then just burn yourself out on every game mode and hope rng doesn't tease you for too long.

5 seems even worse.

Orion

notamutant wrote:

Mind showing me the formula (or website that calculates this)? I forgot my college stats stuff, so I am not seeing how you guys are getting this value. Would appreciate the refresher. Thanks.

The easiest way to calculate the odds is to look at the chance of NOT drawing the 4* in 10 pulls. The first pull is a 19/20 chance of not getting the 4*. The 2nd pull is 18/19 (since 1 pull is gone). Then it goes 17/18, 16/17, and so on. So to get the chance of not seeing the 4* in 10 pulls, you have to multiply them all together:

19/20 * 18/19 * 17/18 * 16/17 * 15/16 * 14/15* 13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12 * 10/11 = 0.5

So in 10 pulls, there's a 50% chance that you didn't pull the 4*. So flipping that, there was a 50% chance that you DID pull the 4*.

Just wanted to show the math behind the calculation (and dust off my 25 year-old Stats degree knowledge).

Fightmastermpq

sweegy wrote:

Actually shouldn't the odds be even better than that? 1/20 for first pull, then 1/19 for 2nd pull, and so on. Adding those up it's actually 76.87 percent to get the cover you want in 10 pulls.

No, this isn't correct - see what Orion said above. To convince yourself continue this trend all the way up to 20 pulls and you'll find that your odds of pulling that cover after 13 pulls is over 100%, and up to 359% after 20......that obviously can't be right.

broll

1500 is still a lot HP for me. I don't accumulate it nearly quickly enough to have that amount to spend on any regular basis unless one of the following happened:
- I gave up slotting the new characters
- They stop releasing new characters
- Slots become free

I barely keeping up having to slot new characters every 2-4 weeks and that's with VIP.

However, even if I had it, I doubt I would spend it on these vaults, maybe to get a final cover to champion a top tier 4*, but even that I'd be iffy on, especially since the 1500 is no guarantee. They want you to throw 1500 HP at this, not get it, then be out of HP and be like, well I may as well pay real money for this or it was a waste. Smart for them, bad for us. I'll continue to laugh at these vaults until they hopefully are replaced with something that's a better deal.

bbigler

Orion wrote:

notamutant wrote:

Mind showing me the formula (or website that calculates this)? I forgot my college stats stuff, so I am not seeing how you guys are getting this value. Would appreciate the refresher. Thanks.

The easiest way to calculate the odds is to look at the chance of NOT drawing the 4* in 10 pulls. The first pull is a 19/20 chance of not getting the 4*. The 2nd pull is 18/19 (since 1 pull is gone). Then it goes 17/18, 16/17, and so on. So to get the chance of not seeing the 4* in 10 pulls, you have to multiply them all together:

19/20 * 18/19 * 17/18 * 16/17 * 15/16 * 14/15* 13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12 * 10/11 = 0.5

So in 10 pulls, there's a 50% chance that you didn't pull the 4*. So flipping that, there was a 50% chance that you DID pull the 4*.

Just wanted to show the math behind the calculation (and dust off my 25 year-old Stats degree knowledge).

There's an easier way to calculate it:

% chance per pull x number of pulls = total % chance

5% chance per pull x 10 pulls = 50% chance

So, with Legendary Tokens that have a 15% chance of getting a 5* cover per pull, 7 pulls gives you a 105% chance, meaning that you should get one (but not guaranteed). The more pulls, the more the results will match the odds. 70 pulls should give you 10 x 5* covers. 700 pulls should definitely give you 100 x 5* covers.

Hendross

Orion wrote:

notamutant wrote:

Mind showing me the formula (or website that calculates this)? I forgot my college stats stuff, so I am not seeing how you guys are getting this value. Would appreciate the refresher. Thanks.

The easiest way to calculate the odds is to look at the chance of NOT drawing the 4* in 10 pulls. The first pull is a 19/20 chance of not getting the 4*. The 2nd pull is 18/19 (since 1 pull is gone). Then it goes 17/18, 16/17, and so on. So to get the chance of not seeing the 4* in 10 pulls, you have to multiply them all together:

19/20 * 18/19 * 17/18 * 16/17 * 15/16 * 14/15* 13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12 * 10/11 = 0.5

So in 10 pulls, there's a 50% chance that you didn't pull the 4*. So flipping that, there was a 50% chance that you DID pull the 4*.

Just wanted to show the math behind the calculation (and dust off my 25 year-old Stats degree knowledge).

Spot on.

Similarly if you have a vault with a 4-star and legendary token

There's a (1/20) 5% chance you get something awesome on the first pull
There's a (1/19) 5.26% chance you get something awesome on the second pull

Those are independent

However, if you had to draw 2 at once there is only a .26% chance of hitting the jackpot.
1/20 * 1/19 = X
.05 * .053 = .26

P.S If anyone asks you to switch doors after revealing a non-prize curtain. Do it!

Omega Red

Suppose you have a handful of Peggies about to expire. Suppose you still need 60,000 iso to level and champ her. You also have a two star Thor at level 142. Would you try your chances by pulling heroics at 300 HP each or would you go for the vault that has two of them guaranteed at 150 HP the pull, with the added bonus of more three stars for your farm and a four star? So, I would dare to go as far and say this vault can be a good deal even to get a specific two star cover. If you have all two and three stars champed then you'll be in this situation a lot in the coming months.

What makes this vault good is that it gives you a selection of covers across three tiers, somewhat easily (if maybe expensive depending of how much HP you make) obtainable, if you happen to need them RIGHT NOW.

smkspy

Wow, now we're throwing very specific roster detailed examples in order to white knight these vaults...yeah alrighty then.

End of the day, they're a bad deal for some and good deal for others. It's all situational and each person should use their own judgment whether or not they should invest in it for whatever reason. And beyond that they will continue if enough people support them.