Small Vaults aren't that bad....let me explain

bbigler

Since this forum likes mathematical analysis, here's something to consider. First, these small 4* vaults look like a bad deal at 3000 HP for 20 tokens to empty the vault. But, if you pull from these small vaults one token at a time (150 HP), your odds of getting the 4* cover increase with each pull. So, for example, you might get the 4* cover after 7 pulls and in another vault after 13 pulls. Over time, it will average out to 10 pulls (50%) to get the cover. Which means that on average, you would spend 1500 HP to get a specific 4* cover, and that isn't a bad deal (I can accumulate 1500 HP in about 3 - 4 days). So, if you need the showcased 4* cover and you have HP to burn, then pull one by one until you get it. Some days it will cost 1000 HP and other times 2000 HP, but it will average out to 1500 HP.

What about the other vaults?

Well, the PvE Vault (80 prizes) has a much higher cost for a single pull (400 HP) after the "daily deal". If you bought 10 tokens for the 2800 HP daily deal, then you have a 50% chance of getting 1 of 3 known 4* covers or an LT (unknown cover). Combine this 10 pack with tokens you win from the event, and your total odds go up to about 80%. This certainly is not nearly as good of a deal as the small 4* vault.

The Taco Vault is good and bad. 3 out of 300 total prizes is a 4* cover, a 1% chance per pull. If you pulled one at a time for 200 HP each, then it would take 50 pulls to hit the 50% mark, which is the average. That totals 10,000 HP, but since we can win 2 tokens per day, you could hoard your taco tokens for 30 days and have a 60% chance without spending any HP. If you still miss a 4* cover, then you could pull one at a time until you do or just hoard longer.

Edit: The bottom line is that you can spend an average of 1500 HP in a small vault to get a specific 4* cover + some other covers that can give you champion levels and rewards too.

Vhailorx

I think the value isn't great on these new small 4* vaults.

BUT, this game desperately needs more ways for transitioning players to target specific covers for particular 4*s. These vaults are a decent compromise between player-friendly cover rewards and the pragmatic need of the game to make money. I think the sensible way for players to view this new system (assuming it remains in it's current form) is that you can wait until an essential cover rolls around (basically any cover for a premiere 4* that isn't champed or cover-maxed at 5 covers already) and then buy tokens 1 by 1 until you get the 4*.

I certainly won't do it every vault, but if I didn't have peggy or rulk fully covered, and either one came up in the vaults, I would gladly spend 1.5k HP on a guaranteed, high value cover. 3k would suck, and will happen to everyone eventually, but it's quite unlikely if you go 1 at a time.

smkspy

Don't care about statistics, only know that 3000 HP to pull what have been rather lousy 4 stars and bunch of puny rewards that I already receive in every other vault just isn't worth.

And I say this when that yellow Flaptain was my potential 13th cover for him. Frankly, I can wait to champ him.

But Basicly these vaults are a value for people that get the lucky pull on first or second try, really want that cover, and bad deals for those pulling junk and wasting HP.

dsds

I have been accumulating hp really quickly since the launch of clearance levels. I will probably pull from a few vaults. Just patiently waiting for the peggy carter vault. Will definitely spend up to 3000hp on it. It's a third of my stockpile right now.

hodayathink

smkspy wrote:

Don't care about statistics, only know that 3000 HP to pull what have been rather lousy 4 stars and bunch of puny rewards that I already receive in every other vault just isn't worth.

And I say this when that yellow Flaptain was my potential 13th cover for him. Frankly, I can wait to champ him.

But Basicly these vaults are a value for people that get the lucky pull on first or second try, really want that cover, and bad deals for those pulling junk and wasting HP.

Except that if you have your characters champed, none of those covers are junk and all of them are usable and can get you anything from a little extra ISO to other 4 star covers.

Edit: Between champing and Shield Clearance Levels (which make it easier to place higher in PvE for me) and Intercepts, I'm earning more than the HP required to roster a new character every 2 weeks. Since they changed cover purchases to CP instead of HP, the only thing to spend that HP on is shields (I don't play enough PvP for shields to be worth it) or tokens. And over the long haul, these vaults seem like just as good of a deal, if not better, than spending it the daily deal for Heroic tokens.

Akari

I've always counted a 4* cover as being worth 2500 HP, since that's what it cost to buy them back when that was available. For these small vaults, they're ok, but the pure number of terrible rewards (70% 2*?!?!?!) really ruins it. Plus they've all been for generally not good characters so far. Well, DPX was good, but I'm not gonna spend 3000 hp on a champ level. Champ level rewards will never be worth 2500 hp (unless it's an LT, but even then...)

notamutant

bbigler wrote:

Since this forum likes mathematical analysis, here's something to consider. First, these small 4* vaults look like a bad deal at 3000 HP for 20 tokens to empty the vault. But, if you pull from these small vaults one token at a time (150 HP), your odds of getting the 4* cover increase with each pull. So, for example, you might get the 4* cover after 7 pulls and in another vault after 13 pulls. Over time, it will average out to 10 pulls (50%) to get the cover. Which means that on average, you would spend 1500 HP to get a specific 4* cover, and that isn't a bad deal (I can accumulate 1500 HP in about 3 - 4 days). So, if you need the showcased 4* cover and you have HP to burn, then pull one by one until you get it. Some days it will cost 1000 HP and other times 2000 HP, but it will average out to 1500 HP.

What about the other vaults?

Well, the PvE Vault (80 prizes) has a much higher cost for a single pull (400 HP) after the "daily deal". If you bought 10 tokens for the 2800 HP daily deal, then you have a 50% chance of getting 1 of 3 known 4* covers or an LT (unknown cover). Combine this 10 pack with tokens you win from the event, and your total odds go up to about 80%. This certainly is not nearly as good of a deal as the small 4* vault.

The Taco Vault is good and bad. 3 out of 300 total prizes is a 4* cover, a 1% chance per pull. If you pulled one at a time for 200 HP each, then it would take 50 pulls to hit the 50% mark, which is the average. That totals 10,000 HP, but since we can win 2 tokens per day, you could hoard your taco tokens for 30 days and have a 60% chance without spending any HP. If you still miss a 4* cover, then you could pull one at a time until you do or just hoard longer.

Where are you getting the odds averaging out to 50% chance to pull the cover in 10 pulls? Please share your math. As far as I can tell, it would less than that, but I am too lazy to find the formula or calculator to determine it. Just thinking logically, the odds will continuously be lower than 50% until you pull 18 covers, so it cannot possibly be 50% to pull the cover on average after 10 tries.

fnedude

So my Peggy Carter is 4/5/3....

Does anyone not think I'd spend the HP to get the 13th cover to take her to lvl 270?

That's the appeal once the cover you are looking for comes around, I don't think they (d3) are looking to sell it to people that have a Champion character. Because what is 1x extra Champ level to those people, ~3 extra damage, OOOOooooo.

smkspy

hodayathink wrote:

smkspy wrote:

Don't care about statistics, only know that 3000 HP to pull what have been rather lousy 4 stars and bunch of puny rewards that I already receive in every other vault just isn't worth.

And I say this when that yellow Flaptain was my potential 13th cover for him. Frankly, I can wait to champ him.

But Basicly these vaults are a value for people that get the lucky pull on first or second try, really want that cover, and bad deals for those pulling junk and wasting HP.

Except that if you have your characters champed, none of those covers are junk and all of them are usable and can get you anything from a little extra ISO to other 4 star covers.

Edit: Between champing and Shield Clearance Levels (which make it easier to place higher in PvE for me) and Intercepts, I'm earning more than the HP required to roster a new character every 2 weeks. Since they changed cover purchases to CP instead of HP, the only thing to spend that HP on is shields (I don't play enough PvP for shields to be worth it) or tokens. And over the long haul, these vaults seem like just as good of a deal, if not better, than spending it the daily deal for Heroic tokens.

Yeah, two star rewards, even champed.ones aren't worth when I already get them from the game from numerous outlets.

And these vaults have What, 4 four stars? A small case can be made for them, especially if you're about to hit that next 4 star from 3 star reward then it's probably worth waiting a bit more.

But yeah, HP is flowing a lot more freely, which is why they are making these vaults. If the vaults were a bit better they might entice me, as it stands though, I'll save my HP for roster spots, the occasional shield, and the day that they release a truly good vault like the anniversary vault.

smkspy

fnedude wrote:

So my Peggy Carter is 4/5/3....

Does anyone not think I'd spend the HP to get the 13th cover to take her to lvl 270?

That's the appeal once the cover you are looking for comes around, I don't think they (d3) are looking to sell it to people that have a Champion character. Because what is 1x extra Champ level to those people, ~3 extra damage, OOOOooooo.

IF we get that Peggy vault, seems they're going he usual "let's throw all the dumpy 4s at them first" strategy. But I'll gladly eat crow if teen jean, peggy, or rulk is the next vault.

bones

notamutant wrote:

bbigler wrote:

Since this forum likes mathematical analysis, here's something to consider. First, these small 4* vaults look like a bad deal at 3000 HP for 20 tokens to empty the vault. But, if you pull from these small vaults one token at a time (150 HP), your odds of getting the 4* cover increase with each pull. So, for example, you might get the 4* cover after 7 pulls and in another vault after 13 pulls. Over time, it will average out to 10 pulls (50%) to get the cover. Which means that on average, you would spend 1500 HP to get a specific 4* cover, and that isn't a bad deal (I can accumulate 1500 HP in about 3 - 4 days). So, if you need the showcased 4* cover and you have HP to burn, then pull one by one until you get it. Some days it will cost 1000 HP and other times 2000 HP, but it will average out to 1500 HP.

What about the other vaults?

Well, the PvE Vault (80 prizes) has a much higher cost for a single pull (400 HP) after the "daily deal". If you bought 10 tokens for the 2800 HP daily deal, then you have a 50% chance of getting 1 of 3 known 4* covers or an LT (unknown cover). Combine this 10 pack with tokens you win from the event, and your total odds go up to about 80%. This certainly is not nearly as good of a deal as the small 4* vault.

The Taco Vault is good and bad. 3 out of 300 total prizes is a 4* cover, a 1% chance per pull. If you pulled one at a time for 200 HP each, then it would take 50 pulls to hit the 50% mark, which is the average. That totals 10,000 HP, but since we can win 2 tokens per day, you could hoard your taco tokens for 30 days and have a 60% chance without spending any HP. If you still miss a 4* cover, then you could pull one at a time until you do or just hoard longer.

Where are you getting the odds averaging out to 50% chance to pull the cover in 10 pulls? Please share your math. As far as I can tell, it would less than that, but I am too lazy to find the formula or calculator to determine it. Just thinking logically, the odds will continuously be lower than 50% until you pull 18 covers, so it cannot possibly be 50% to pull the cover on average after 10 tries.

50% is the probability of getting a specific reward out of 20 with 10 pulls, not a single pull (e.g the 19th pull).

hodayathink

smkspy wrote:

hodayathink wrote:

smkspy wrote:

Don't care about statistics, only know that 3000 HP to pull what have been rather lousy 4 stars and bunch of puny rewards that I already receive in every other vault just isn't worth.

And I say this when that yellow Flaptain was my potential 13th cover for him. Frankly, I can wait to champ him.

But Basicly these vaults are a value for people that get the lucky pull on first or second try, really want that cover, and bad deals for those pulling junk and wasting HP.

Except that if you have your characters champed, none of those covers are junk and all of them are usable and can get you anything from a little extra ISO to other 4 star covers.

Edit: Between champing and Shield Clearance Levels (which make it easier to place higher in PvE for me) and Intercepts, I'm earning more than the HP required to roster a new character every 2 weeks. Since they changed cover purchases to CP instead of HP, the only thing to spend that HP on is shields (I don't play enough PvP for shields to be worth it) or tokens. And over the long haul, these vaults seem like just as good of a deal, if not better, than spending it the daily deal for Heroic tokens.

Yeah, two star rewards, even champed.ones aren't worth when I already get them from the game from numerous outlets.

And these vaults have What, 4 four stars? A small case can be made for them, especially if you're about to hit that next 4 star from 3 star reward then it's probably worth waiting a bit more.

But yeah, HP is flowing a lot more freely, which is why they are making these vaults. If the vaults were a bit better they might entice me, as it stands though, I'll save my HP for roster spots, the occasional shield, and the day that they release a truly good vault like the anniversary vault.

Let me put this a different way. Which of these things would you trade 150HP for?

250 ISO
500 ISO
1000 ISO
2500 ISO
2CP
3CP
50HP
100HP
A Heroic token
A 3 star cover
A 4 star cover

Because if you have all your 2 and the 3 stars in the vault champed, those are basically your possible rewards (excluding the legendary that is technically possible at certain 3 star and 4 star champ levels). Personally, I'd trade 150HP for both CP rewards, the two highest ISO rewards and both covers. So 6/11 possible rewards are desirable for me, which makes it worth it to pull the tokens for me.

notamutant

bones wrote:

notamutant wrote:

bbigler wrote:

Since this forum likes mathematical analysis, here's something to consider. First, these small 4* vaults look like a bad deal at 3000 HP for 20 tokens to empty the vault. But, if you pull from these small vaults one token at a time (150 HP), your odds of getting the 4* cover increase with each pull. So, for example, you might get the 4* cover after 7 pulls and in another vault after 13 pulls. Over time, it will average out to 10 pulls (50%) to get the cover. Which means that on average, you would spend 1500 HP to get a specific 4* cover, and that isn't a bad deal (I can accumulate 1500 HP in about 3 - 4 days). So, if you need the showcased 4* cover and you have HP to burn, then pull one by one until you get it. Some days it will cost 1000 HP and other times 2000 HP, but it will average out to 1500 HP.

What about the other vaults?

Well, the PvE Vault (80 prizes) has a much higher cost for a single pull (400 HP) after the "daily deal". If you bought 10 tokens for the 2800 HP daily deal, then you have a 50% chance of getting 1 of 3 known 4* covers or an LT (unknown cover). Combine this 10 pack with tokens you win from the event, and your total odds go up to about 80%. This certainly is not nearly as good of a deal as the small 4* vault.

The Taco Vault is good and bad. 3 out of 300 total prizes is a 4* cover, a 1% chance per pull. If you pulled one at a time for 200 HP each, then it would take 50 pulls to hit the 50% mark, which is the average. That totals 10,000 HP, but since we can win 2 tokens per day, you could hoard your taco tokens for 30 days and have a 60% chance without spending any HP. If you still miss a 4* cover, then you could pull one at a time until you do or just hoard longer.

Where are you getting the odds averaging out to 50% chance to pull the cover in 10 pulls? Please share your math. As far as I can tell, it would less than that, but I am too lazy to find the formula or calculator to determine it. Just thinking logically, the odds will continuously be lower than 50% until you pull 18 covers, so it cannot possibly be 50% to pull the cover on average after 10 tries.

50% is the probability of getting a specific reward out of 20 with 10 pulls, not a single pull (e.g the 19th pull).

Mind showing me the formula (or website that calculates this)? I forgot my college stats stuff, so I am not seeing how you guys are getting this value. Would appreciate the refresher. Thanks.

smkspy

hodayathink wrote:

smkspy wrote:

hodayathink wrote:

smkspy wrote:

Don't care about statistics, only know that 3000 HP to pull what have been rather lousy 4 stars and bunch of puny rewards that I already receive in every other vault just isn't worth.

And I say this when that yellow Flaptain was my potential 13th cover for him. Frankly, I can wait to champ him.

But Basicly these vaults are a value for people that get the lucky pull on first or second try, really want that cover, and bad deals for those pulling junk and wasting HP.

Except that if you have your characters champed, none of those covers are junk and all of them are usable and can get you anything from a little extra ISO to other 4 star covers.

Edit: Between champing and Shield Clearance Levels (which make it easier to place higher in PvE for me) and Intercepts, I'm earning more than the HP required to roster a new character every 2 weeks. Since they changed cover purchases to CP instead of HP, the only thing to spend that HP on is shields (I don't play enough PvP for shields to be worth it) or tokens. And over the long haul, these vaults seem like just as good of a deal, if not better, than spending it the daily deal for Heroic tokens.

Yeah, two star rewards, even champed.ones aren't worth when I already get them from the game from numerous outlets.

And these vaults have What, 4 four stars? A small case can be made for them, especially if you're about to hit that next 4 star from 3 star reward then it's probably worth waiting a bit more.

But yeah, HP is flowing a lot more freely, which is why they are making these vaults. If the vaults were a bit better they might entice me, as it stands though, I'll save my HP for roster spots, the occasional shield, and the day that they release a truly good vault like the anniversary vault.

Let me put this a different way. Which of these things would you trade 150HP for?

250 ISO
500 ISO
1000 ISO
2500 ISO
2CP
3CP
50HP
100HP
A Heroic token
A 3 star cover
A 4 star cover

Because if you have all your 2 and the 3 stars in the vault champed, those are basically your possible rewards (excluding the legendary that is technically possible at certain 3 star and 4 star champ levels). Personally, I'd trade 150HP for both CP rewards, the two highest ISO rewards and both covers. So 6/11 possible rewards are desirable for me, which makes it worth it to pull the tokens for me.

Glad you find it worth it. For me, other than the potential 4 star, none of that I'd find worth 150 iso. I get more than enough of all those resources through in-game resources. Maybe if they toned downed the 2 stars, but their potential champ rewards are just too common for me.

sweegy

It's pretty simple. Your first pull you have 5% chance (1/20), 2nd 10% (2/20) and so on. The 10th pull you have 50% chance to get it (10/20) and your odds get better as you go.

sweegy

Actually shouldn't the odds be even better than that? 1/20 for first pull, then 1/19 for 2nd pull, and so on. Adding those up it's actually 76.87 percent to get the cover you want in 10 pulls.

MadScientist

Assuming you pull one by one and stop once you get the 4* cover:

the probability to get it in the first pull: 1/20
the probability to get it in the second pull: 19/20 * 1/19 (the probability to not get it in the first pull times the probability to get it in the second) = 1/20
third pull: 19/20 * 18/19 * 1/18 = 1/20
notice a pattern?

The average hero points needed for the 4* cover is

<hp> = 150 * (1/20) + 300 * (1/20) + 450 * (1/20) + ... + 3000 * (1/20) = 1575

snlf25

Small vaults are bad if the 4* cover is bad. I'd clear one out for a Peggy in a heartbeat but keep my hp with most anybody else up for grabs right now. I've finished most everybody else the old fashioned way, desperate to have a champion Peggy now. Not too many people are going to get that excited for a new and improved bag lady I'd imagine.

bbigler

snlf25 wrote:

Small vaults are bad if the 4* cover is bad. I'd clear one out for a Peggy in a heartbeat but keep my hp with most anybody else up for grabs right now. I've finished most everybody else the old fashioned way, desperate to have a champion Peggy now. Not too many people are going to get that excited for a new and improved bag lady I'd imagine.

IW works pretty well with Carnage; she can both give team invisibility for 2 turns, create protect tiles and lock-out enemy attack tiles while creating strike tiles. Her green also hits pretty hard. She is much better now, people just need to give her a chance. Combine her with StarLord and you could handle any amount of special tiles.

SnowcaTT

Love size 40 vaults with LT's + three 4*'s.

Otherwise, I essentially ignore the contents of all vaults as to RNG-dependent...just like much of the game is (has always been?).

GurlBYE

bbigler wrote:

snlf25 wrote:

Small vaults are bad if the 4* cover is bad. I'd clear one out for a Peggy in a heartbeat but keep my hp with most anybody else up for grabs right now. I've finished most everybody else the old fashioned way, desperate to have a champion Peggy now. Not too many people are going to get that excited for a new and improved bag lady I'd imagine.

IW works pretty well with Carnage; she can both give team invisibility for 2 turns, create protect tiles and lock-out enemy attack tiles while creating strike tiles. Her green also hits pretty hard. She is much better now, people just need to give her a chance. Combine her with StarLord and you could handle any amount of special tiles.

Carnage is a bad idea in most facets of the game unless you're forced to use him and anyone strong you can use with IW would be stronger with a good character.

and the vaults keep being mentioned in the sense of that 3000 HP being the final cover.

if you are sitting around with 5 covers in IW spending 3,000 HP for a hero is a waste.

if you have them champed, Spending 3,000 HP for that 1 cover is a waste.

That 3000 HP can be 3 roster slots for the bi-weekly 4* releases, or a new 5 you bump into during a legendary pull

could be 30 daily pulls from various other vaults (30 champ rewards instead of 20)

There isn't really a good sell on these.

At this point players are trying harder then the devs to sell us on the value of these vaults.

In fact they'd probably be improved with proper feedback.