Can I check my math on Standard Cover recruiting?

grael23

I've been saving up a ton of ISO waiting for the fantastic Mischief to finish their amazing write-ups. Seeing that none of my characters were in the top 5 I decided to go recruiting to get some new 3* covers.

I wanted to give back to the community so I painstakingly recorded the results and the drops under GRAEL 23 (on the far right): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... yREE#gid=1

Now, statistically, we should see a 2.58% drop rate of 3* covers. Of the 258 covers I opened today (funny how that worked out 2.58% vs 258 covers) I should have seen 6-7 three star covers (This would have really changed my game). I got one.

ONE.

My question (and I struggle to elucidate my ruminations) is simply: What the eff is going on?!

I need to know if this is bad luck or if there's a bug. Is anyone else having an issue with standard covers?

This has got to be one of the most demoralizing mass-spends of ISO ever.

Unknown

Mischief's results notwithstanding, your own 258 pulls are a small sample size.

Also please tell me you didn't spend 100K ISO on standard pulls.

grael23

80k of it was made in the Simulation event so it's not like it was months of saving up.

But the main reason is that my roster is completely capped. I have no 3* covers worth spending any ISO on (not really interested in wasting ISO on anyone outside of the top 10). And when I analyzed Mischief's numbers I felt it was actually extraordinarily viable to draw at least three 3* covers (and had my fingers crossed for 6).

My sample size is 4% of the total. Small, but still statistically significant to show at least some correlation. For example, all my 1* and 2* cover draws and Hero Points all roughly mirror Mischief's. I just didn't get any 3*.

If it's bad luck, fine. But if it there's something going on the back end because of the recent addition BP, Psylocke and Thor then I'd really like to know. Customer service has been fantastic so I'm hoping someone will see this and see if something needs fixing.

Unknown

sometimes you get a couple 3* pulls in a row and sometimes you won't see a 3* in 100 pulls its rng man you just got a little bit unlucky.
but please don't waste your iso on that many standard packs, it's such a waste of precious iso.

IceIX

Just did a check on our numbers and everything's looking good on the server end. Percentages haven't *quite* stabilized due to the relatively low number of pack purchase events since the new characters were added (in comparison with before that) but they're all very very close to the statistical norm for each character. Looks like a statistical outlier from this end.

Eddiemon

jozier wrote:

Mischief's results notwithstanding, your own 258 pulls are a small sample size.

Also please tell me you didn't spend 100K ISO on standard pulls.

It's not a terrible move nowadays. My steam account is still stuck in 1* land with no good way to get to 2* land anymore.

You can't self heal in prologue anymore, so you end up limping through the prologue winning 3-4 fights before you burn through your health packs. So far I have namanaged one 2* Thor and one 2* Storm. I had over 40k ISO from event rewards and every current character is maxed. Burning through that ISO pile to get a single OBW cover, two Thors and two Wolverines is far better than sitting on it waiting for 2*s to arrive through any other avenue.

grael23

ICEIX: Thanks so much for checking into this for me. Just bad luck, I guess. Really bad luck. I better go help some old ladies cross the street because apparently I've got some bad karma. Bummer.

And unlike everyone else in my Alliance who seem to have a ton of covers and no ISO, I always seem to have no covers and tons of ISO. Tons. They struggle for ISO and I have nowhere to spend it (and when I say nowhere, I have no interest in wasting ISO on Daredevil for example). I can level a character to 141 in about ten days of play so dumping 100k on standard draws is no big deal... If I'd got some covers out of it.

Thanks again.

mischiefmaker

If it makes you feel any better, I cracked 250 tokens last night myself, and got 19 2* covers, 4 3*, and 3 hero points (expected values 29.7, 6.2, 5.6). As a wise man once told me, if you don't like luck in your game, play chess.

vudu3

FWIW, I recently cashed in about 60 standard tokens and got two 3* covers. OP just had bad luck.

grael23

Thanks for the condolences, guys.

I don't mind bad luck (2 covers even 3 covers?) but this was terrible luck. A horrible return on investment that just rubs salt into the coverless wall I've been facing for a month now.

Guess I'll start looking at Marvel Puzzle Chess.

mischiefmaker

grael23 wrote:

Guess I'll start looking at Marvel Puzzle Chess.

Just avoid the forums; everyone's always complaining about how OP the queen is and how they're forced to use her so she should be nerfed.

Eddiemon

mischiefmaker wrote:

grael23 wrote:

Guess I'll start looking at Marvel Puzzle Chess.

Just avoid the forums; everyone's always complaining about how OP the queen is and how they're forced to use her so she should be nerfed.

And they keep making dumb suggestions about upgrading a ** pawn to a *** queen if you collect 8 rows.

Unknown

I've read the thread and it seems as though the only reasonable conclusion that can be made is Bishop will be the next new character.

Unknown

beezer37_84 wrote:

I've read the thread and it seems as though the only reasonable conclusion that can be made is Bishop will be the next new character.

Yeah, they just announced it, but it has a bad cover picture. They should have used one from the early days, when it was an elephant, instead of one of these modern plastic Bishops.

I'm starting to give up hope they'll ever announce Rook. Maybe they're saving it for Year 2.

Eddiemon

beezer37_84 wrote:

I've read the thread and it seems as though the only reasonable conclusion that can be made is Bishop will be the next new character.

Been hearing some Marvel Knights covers might be next...

over_clocked

grael23 wrote:

Thanks for the condolences, guys.

I don't mind bad luck (2 covers even 3 covers?) but this was terrible luck. A horrible return on investment that just rubs salt into the coverless wall I've been facing for a month now.

Aren't you competing in events that award top tier characters?
Psylocke had a ton recently; ditto Panther (albeit to a lesser degree). They aren't top tier according to Northern Polarity and most players, but they help compete.
Some Punisher covers in the Hulk.
Hood covers recently (Hood is definitely top mid tier at the very least and everyone who disagrees is a Daredevil).
Punisher, Spidey & Patch through Courageous rounds (got 2 blue Spideys last week, pity I already had 5 blue).
Magneto through villainous LRs, I got 2 Mags covers with lucky Diabolic pulls this week.
But I don't want to discourage you with my luck or anything, just a few weeks ago I was in the same land as you, having capped covers and a ton of ISO. Could afford to buy some tokens (useless) and boost like crazy in the first SIm. But it was a mistake, never spend your ISO on anything other than leveling, you never know when RNG gods smile upon you and gift you a ton of usable covers. When you try too hard, it usually only brings disappointment.

grael23

locked, great advice and very much appreciated.

I am competing and I'm earning about three 3* covers per week... Mainly in long-term events. But that's slow going across 15 3 star characters. Add to that I'm getting just a *fantastic* number of doubles on the five 3* skills I have maxed. Really, I coulda built a house out of GSBW reds (but I can't get a green to save myself).

LRs are just not worth the time for me. With only a 141 Hulk, an 85 OBW/YOLO Ares and a 2* Thor I'm hardly a deterrent. Even in the Hulk LR I was eaten alive (the only one I played for the full hour and a half). Without a Spiderman, Patch, CMags, Doom or any other LR character at a significant level I am just chum in the water. I hammer the start of LRs for the easy ISO and that easy recruit token but otherwise it's not worth my time. Perhaps I should be leveling my very capped LR characters to give me slightly more edge here?

But doing the math, it's "theoretically" not worth wasting ISO on characters outside the top 5 when I "statistically" should have seen six 3* covers today. It should have totally overhauled my roster and I might have even been tempted to drop some cash to top it off. Such was not the case.

Unknown

grael23 wrote:

locked, great advice and very much appreciated.

I am competing and I'm earning about three 3* covers per week... Mainly in long-term events. But that's slow going across 15 3 star characters. Add to that I'm getting just a *fantastic* number of doubles on the five 3* skills I have maxed. Really, I coulda built a house out of GSBW reds (but I can't get a green to save myself).

LRs are just not worth the time for me. With only a 141 Hulk, an 85 OBW/YOLO Ares and a 2* Thor I'm hardly a deterrent. Even in the Hulk LR I was eaten alive (the only one I played for the full hour and a half). Without a Spiderman, Patch, CMags, Doom or any other LR character at a significant level I am just chum in the water. I hammer the start of LRs for the easy ISO and that easy recruit token but otherwise it's not worth my time. Perhaps I should be leveling my very capped LR characters to give me slightly more edge here?

But doing the math, it's "theoretically" not worth wasting ISO on characters outside the top 5 when I "statistically" should have seen six 3* covers today. It should have totally overhauled my roster and I might have even been tempted to drop some cash to top it off. Such was not the case.

Tank hard before a lightning round. You have a maxed hulk, so maybe start with the hulk round, just go into battles and retreat again and again before bed each night. In the morning your characters are fine and you've lowered your mmr. You can easily win a lightning round fight 1 and 2 star opponents regardless of what your roster looks like. Though if you aren't careful, you'll run into someone like me who does the same thing... Then you might be in trouble.

over_clocked

^ Agreed, your MMR is probably too high so that you got into solid 3x lvl 141 territory while fielding 2x lvl 85, who are often easy prey for lvl 141s. Tank some (just lose a dozen times in SHIELD versus with your least used characters whenever not too lazy), so that your MMR is closer to adequate.
Do not start to fight LRs right away, just join them right away so that you can start with seed teams anyway, do whatever you want in the first 30-40 minutes and only start fighting in the second half or so. Beat on seed teams quickly, Ares should help with that (150-200 pts range), and then start picking on real opponents who should be your level after tanking (developed 2**s and only a few developed 3***s). 250 pts prog reward, a few more matches to secure top 50 placement, rather don't use shields since you're not fighting for a particular cover. You should be easily dominating the Hulk rounds, but you don't even need to since all you want is courageous tokens. Be careful not to get too many defensive wins and get top 25, lol.
Your maxed Hulk should be a huge deterrent to 2**s, so that you are attacked/retaliated against less, so all you need to do is adjust the MMR a bit. Even if not fighting the Hulk rounds, If you get closer to your territory of fighting Ares/Thor + oBW with a featured 3rd character, you should be A-okay and swimming in covers pretty soon.

grael23 wrote:

Perhaps I should be leveling my very capped LR characters to give me slightly more edge here?

Also do this, by all means, Magneto, Doom and Hood first priority if you got 4/5 blue for Hood. Ragnarok and Loki rounds are not terribly competitive, so you can level them instead if you have more of their covers. Dunno about Courageous rounds, level whichever character you have the most covers for. You only want top 50 if you lack most of the covers anyway.

Unknown

He wants #1 in hero lightning rounds because it nets 3 courageous tokens. And I was suggesting he tank a lot more then you suggest so he is only facing 1* teams in lightning rounds.

over_clocked

Well, one courageous token each 2 hours still isn't bad, it's definitely more than 3 new covers a week.