When did they Nerf the Drop Rate?

alextfish

Barrelrolla wrote:

I'm fine with a dupe, but 3/3 events the same card?

You have to consider however many players there are playing this game. What are the odds that one (or two or three) of them will get the same card 3 events running? Pretty high, actually. Sucks for those people, of course.

mouser

alextfish wrote:

Barrelrolla wrote:

I'm fine with a dupe, but 3/3 events the same card?

You have to consider however many players there are playing this game. What are the odds that one (or two or three) of them will get the same card 3 events running? Pretty high, actually. Sucks for those people, of course.

Assuming the full 12 OGW mythics were equally available, the odds of pulling the same card three straight times are 1 in 144. Not impossible territory, but not something you'd expect to see multiple times in a small circle of players.

Skidoo

mouser wrote:

Assuming the full 12 OGW mythics were equally available, the odds of pulling the same card three straight times are 1 in 144. Not impossible territory, but not something you'd expect to see multiple times in a small circle of players.

What is the formula for calculating those odds, Mouser. I'm not disputing your result, I'm curious how you arrived at it. It's been over 20 years since my last statistics class and I've forgotten a good fair bit of the maths.

majincob

Skidoo wrote:

mouser wrote:

Assuming the full 12 OGW mythics were equally available, the odds of pulling the same card three straight times are 1 in 144. Not impossible territory, but not something you'd expect to see multiple times in a small circle of players.

What is the formula for calculating those odds, Mouser. I'm not disputing your result, I'm curious how you arrived at it. It's been over 20 years since my last statistics class and I've forgotten a good fair bit of the maths.

Odds of getting the first card 1:1 = P(the first card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the second card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the third card)

P(all three cards the same)=P(card1)*P(card2)*P(card3)= 1* 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144

Also this topic has come up numerous times. Please visit the thread in the suggestion forum and "like" the original post.

Barrelrolla

majincob wrote:

Skidoo wrote:

mouser wrote:

Assuming the full 12 OGW mythics were equally available, the odds of pulling the same card three straight times are 1 in 144. Not impossible territory, but not something you'd expect to see multiple times in a small circle of players.

What is the formula for calculating those odds, Mouser. I'm not disputing your result, I'm curious how you arrived at it. It's been over 20 years since my last statistics class and I've forgotten a good fair bit of the maths.

Odds of getting the first card 1:1 = P(the first card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the second card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the third card)

P(all three cards the same)=P(card1)*P(card2)*P(card3)= 1* 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144

Also this topic has come up numerous times. Please visit the thread in the suggestion forum and "like" the original post.

It's not OGW, it's SoI, which has 24 Mythics. And what are the odds at least 4 players to get a 1/144 chance?

Not to mention, I don't care how many players play the game. Top 10 coalitions get a Mythic, that's 20 people per coalition = 10*20 = 200 people get a guaranteed mythic.
1*1/24*1/24 = 576.
At least 4 people out of 200 had a 1/576 chance?
Highly unlikely

Morphis

Barrelrolla wrote:

majincob wrote:

Skidoo wrote:

mouser wrote:

Assuming the full 12 OGW mythics were equally available, the odds of pulling the same card three straight times are 1 in 144. Not impossible territory, but not something you'd expect to see multiple times in a small circle of players.

What is the formula for calculating those odds, Mouser. I'm not disputing your result, I'm curious how you arrived at it. It's been over 20 years since my last statistics class and I've forgotten a good fair bit of the maths.

Odds of getting the first card 1:1 = P(the first card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the second card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the third card)

P(all three cards the same)=P(card1)*P(card2)*P(card3)= 1* 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144

Also this topic has come up numerous times. Please visit the thread in the suggestion forum and "like" the original post.

It's not OGW, it's SoI, which has 24 Mythics. And what are the odds at least 4 players to get a 1/144 chance?

Not to mention, I don't care how many players play the game. Top 10 coalitions get a Mythic, that's 20 people per coalition = 10*20 = 200 people get a guaranteed mythic.
1*1/24*1/24 = 576.
At least 4 people out of 200 had a 1/576 chance?
Highly unlikely

This can explain all of it


It's from "a beautiful mind".

You can find almost any pattern in random elements. It does not mean those elements are not random.

If I roll a 6 faced dice 30 times I could still get:
- only odd numbers
- only even numbers
- some numbers not occurring even once
- only numbers <= 3
- only numbers >= 3
- recurring sequences(like 1-4-3-2 repeat)
- etc....
If you are looking for a pattern you will most likely find one or even more than one.
That does not mean the numbers are not "truly random"(i.e. if we exclude that computer random number generators are not random).

alextfish

Barrelrolla wrote:

It's not OGW, it's SoI, which has 24 Mythics. And what are the odds at least 4 players to get a 1/144 chance?

Not to mention, I don't care how many players play the game. Top 10 coalitions get a Mythic, that's 20 people per coalition = 10*20 = 200 people get a guaranteed mythic.
1*1/24*1/24 = 576.
At least 4 people out of 200 had a 1/576 chance?
Highly unlikely

But that's 1/576 per event. How many of the reported occasions were all in the same event? It just needs one or two people to report their guaranteed mythic from a different event, or their QB prize, or even just their individual prize rather than the coalition prize, and the odds shoot up again.

Edit: And yeah, basically Morphis has it right. You spot the patterns that do occur, but not all the thousands of possible patterns that didn't occur.

glggwp

the occurred pattern points to a **** rng whose only job is to screeeeeewwww yooooouuuuu

Tilikum

This has probably been suggested but why don't they make it to where you can't get a repeat in the same box no matter what the size. That way people don't feel so cheated and it doesn't come off seeming like a shell game.

glggwp

Tilikum wrote:

This has probably been suggested but why don't they make it to where you can't get a repeat in the same box no matter what the size. That way people don't feel so cheated and it doesn't come off seeming like a shell game.

this is a good idea although the whole pack can be carefully crafted entirely from your existing cards... but i agree at least i will feel a little better

Skidoo

Morphis wrote:

This can explain all of it


It's from "a beautiful mind".

You can find almost any pattern in random elements. It does not mean those elements are not random.

I heard another simple comment on causation recently - "Just because one thing happens after another does not mean it happens because of it."

It's also curious to me the way humans assess odds. What we consider to be "good" and "bad" odds changes if we're talking about winning some prize vs being diagnosed cancer.

Morphis

Skidoo wrote:

Morphis wrote:

This can explain all of it


It's from "a beautiful mind".

You can find almost any pattern in random elements. It does not mean those elements are not random.

I heard another simple comment on causation recently - "Just because one thing happens after another does not mean it happens because of it."

It's also curious to me the way humans assess odds. What we consider to be "good" and "bad" odds changes if we're talking about winning some prize vs being diagnosed cancer.

Yes that's the basis of statistics.
If you roll a 6 face dice 5 times, the chance it will always result in a "3" is one in 7776.
If I tell you that I already rolled 5 times and the result was always a "3" the chance of next roll to be "3" is not one in 7776 but simply one in 6

For the last sentence well personally I usually do not qualify chances as bad or good but high or low.

mouser

Barrelrolla wrote:

majincob wrote:

Skidoo wrote:

mouser wrote:

Assuming the full 12 OGW mythics were equally available, the odds of pulling the same card three straight times are 1 in 144. Not impossible territory, but not something you'd expect to see multiple times in a small circle of players.

What is the formula for calculating those odds, Mouser. I'm not disputing your result, I'm curious how you arrived at it. It's been over 20 years since my last statistics class and I've forgotten a good fair bit of the maths.

Odds of getting the first card 1:1 = P(the first card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the second card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the third card)

P(all three cards the same)=P(card1)*P(card2)*P(card3)= 1* 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144

Also this topic has come up numerous times. Please visit the thread in the suggestion forum and "like" the original post.

It's not OGW, it's SoI, which has 24 Mythics. And what are the odds at least 4 players to get a 1/144 chance?

Not to mention, I don't care how many players play the game. Top 10 coalitions get a Mythic, that's 20 people per coalition = 10*20 = 200 people get a guaranteed mythic.
1*1/24*1/24 = 576.
At least 4 people out of 200 had a 1/576 chance?
Highly unlikely

Minor note: there are 20 Mythics in SoI.

span_argoman

mouser wrote:

Barrelrolla wrote:

majincob wrote:

Skidoo wrote:

What is the formula for calculating those odds, Mouser. I'm not disputing your result, I'm curious how you arrived at it. It's been over 20 years since my last statistics class and I've forgotten a good fair bit of the maths.

Odds of getting the first card 1:1 = P(the first card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the second card)
Odds of getting the same card as the first 1:12 = P(the third card)

P(all three cards the same)=P(card1)*P(card2)*P(card3)= 1* 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144

Also this topic has come up numerous times. Please visit the thread in the suggestion forum and "like" the original post.

It's not OGW, it's SoI, which has 24 Mythics. And what are the odds at least 4 players to get a 1/144 chance?

Not to mention, I don't care how many players play the game. Top 10 coalitions get a Mythic, that's 20 people per coalition = 10*20 = 200 people get a guaranteed mythic.
1*1/24*1/24 = 576.
At least 4 people out of 200 had a 1/576 chance?
Highly unlikely

Minor note: there are 20 Mythics in SoI.

There are actually 21 Mythics in SoI.
4 of which are Special Offers and hence cannot be obtained from drops or from rewards.
And Startled Awake is mysteriously missing from the drop list too despite not being labelled as an exclusive card.

So that brings you to 16 Mythics available to be looted or gained from rewards for SoI. So it becomes a 1/256 chance to get a triplicate of the same Mythic I guess.

shteev

Did you know if you get 23 people in a room, there's a 50% chance that 2 of them will share a birthday?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

arNero

Okay, randomness theories aside, this bad drop rates is why I'm one of those people who NEVER spend crystals on booster packs. Given how hard it is to get 600 crystals, I'd rather not waste them on getting my millionth copy of a **** common, thank you very much.

I have a few thousands crystals sitting around despite having bought every single planeswalker except Sarkhan and Ajani. That's how stingy I am when it comes to spending crystals for cards. (of course, I also started this game quite early, since it's first launch if I'm right)

Netatron

"&#91 wrote: »

"]Okay, randomness theories aside, this bad drop rates is why I'm one of those people who NEVER spend crystals on booster packs. Given how hard it is to get 600 crystals, I'd rather not waste them on getting my millionth copy of a **** common, thank you very much.

I have a few thousands crystals sitting around despite having bought every single planeswalker except Sarkhan and Ajani. That's how stingy I am when it comes to spending crystals for cards. (of course, I also started this game quite early, since it's first launch if I'm right)

I know how you feel, since they've made it easier to get cards as guranteed rare/mythic rewards from events than getting them from packs, but since I get crystals faster than they release planeswalkers, I still like to buy packs once in a while. Best way to do it is probably to save up until a new set comes out and buy several big boxes then, since you'll be getting plenty of new cards that way, but I'm tempted to ignore this rule and get a red big box this week since I can use red cards on any color node but green.

Skidoo

Eldritch Moon and v1.7.1 just dropped and it appears they may have improved drop rate. I just opened 2 Big Boxes of the SOI block. I pulled 2 Mythics & 3 Rares from one and 2 Mythics & 6 Rares from the other. Better yet, all of the cards were unique from one another except 2 of the Mythics.

Each one of these results (5-8 rare/Mythics from one big box) is better than my last 3 big boxes combined. No exaggeration. These are the first Mythics I've pulled from a big box in months. And to get 5-7 unique rares from a single box is a better return than I've seen since the beginning of 2016.

I represent just one anecdote, but I hope I'm not alone. This is my best haul in far too long. I hope this signals a change. Maybe we're seeing light after a long, dark run.

majincob

Confirmation bias sadly. I haven't seen any surge in the anecdotal evidence for increased drop rates. I got below average results this time around and I opened 100+ packs right when EM got released. (I had been saving prize packs for a month)