When did they Nerf the Drop Rate?

Skidoo

Drop rate nowadays is so much stingier than back at the beginning of the year. What happened?

I opened a big box today for 600g and I pulled 2 rares. That's it. 2! Out of 70 cards!

I'd been working on that 600g for awhile and really looking forward to the results. Very disappointing. My last big box I pulled 4 rares, but 2 were dupes of each other. Rares, not Mythics.

When did it get so stingy?

Irving

No one has ever confirmed it for sure, but the big drop appears to have been when 1.3 was released back at the end of January. Not sure if anything has changed since then, but I do remember calculating in the spring that there would be about 6 rares per Big Box, whereas more recently 3-4 seems like the median.

You do have to take these numbers with a giant grain of salt though because there is a lot of bias introduced in crowdsourcing numbers like this. People are more motivated to report unusual results, especially unusually bad ones. One of the members here recently posted his/her own carefully collected data, which is helpful because it should avoid those biases, but it is also not as large a data set as you would like. It does show a rate of about 4% rares, though, which is about 4 per Big Box (70 cards x 0.04, plus the guaranteed one).

Anyway, yes, the rates are low enough that it feels really bad to spend money on crystals. I picked some up when the recent sale started to try to get some fun cards to build decks with, and felt like a real sucker with what I pulled (2 big boxes and a fat pack, no mythics at all, something like 6 or 7 rares and only one I didn't already have). Doesn't make me want to repeat the experience again - which is too bad, because I really enjoy the game and would love to be able to collect the cards.

glggwp

indeed! anyone who buys mana crystal is kinda **** now. but like Irving, we learn not to repeat our stupidity...

Skidoo

I know everyone shares their most frustrating anecdotes, and I can't bring myself to do different after what I just opened.

I saved another 600g for the 14x Innistrad Big Box. I pulled 1 single rare (no mythics) out of 14 packs. One. I mean, come on. My 3rd grade son was with me and he said, "That's just bull, dad". And it was a duplicate to boot. And what of my guaranteed rare at the end? It was also a rare duplicate. So I literally pulled 0 new rares/mythics out of a 600g big box.

I am just going to hoard my gold going forward and hope they eventually loosen up the drop rate because this is very defeating. This is such a disappointing feeling (and it's now happened the last 3 big boxes to a greater or lesser degree) that I just close the game and find something else to do in protest. I cannot see the point of ever investing another single RL $ with that kind of pitiful (greedy) return.

So frustrating.

huntly

I would like do direct you all to a thread that got moved to feedback section.
viewtopic.php?f=36&t=49913
There is a post there from David [Hi-Fi] Moore regarding the devs intrest in drop rates. Throw a like on the first post if you agree with it. Once a post reaches 25 likes it becomes a "hot topic" and might get the ball rolling sooner.

Daddystyx

I have won 3 pvp events to receive the OGW mythic prize. I have pulled the Worldbreaker each time. What are the odds for this there has to be some cruel coding being done in this game for me to pull three of the worst OGW mythic in a row for all those hours spent on this game.

Any thoughts?

Remember everyone per the forum rules the only way to change anything is to get 25 thumbs up on an individual post to put it on the devs hit list.

glggwp

Daddystyx wrote:

I have won 3 pvp events to receive the OGW mythic prize. I have pulled the Worldbreaker each time. What are the odds for this there has to be some cruel coding being done in this game for me to pull three of the worst OGW mythic in a row for all those hours spent on this game.

Any thoughts?

Remember everyone per the forum rules the only way to change anything is to get 25 thumbs up on an individual post to put it on the devs hit list.

i also notice that the likelihood to get a dupe rare/mythic from event/qb is almost 100%

Mcjordan

glggwp wrote:

i also notice that the likelihood to get a dupe rare/mythic from event/qb is almost 100%

I lucked out one time out of five or six to get Zendikar Resurgent as a QB reward (the only non-duplicate mythic I've received as a reward). No complaints from me on those rewards since it was after BFZ was gone from the vault too.

Barrelrolla

Oh, I got Wolf of devils breach each time as the mythic reward for my coalition being in top 10.
There are no odds. It's coded like that. I am 100% certain. The odds for one person to experince this are extremely low and unlikely, but I know of at least three people with the sane complaint, which is on the boundry with impossible.
"Oh, hey guys, here is a cool new way to recieve duplicates, enjoy!"
This game is seriously starting to annoy me.
At this point I'm still playing only because for some reason I believe JC that we will be able to get the cards we want in some way.

mouser

glggwp wrote:

i also notice that the likelihood to get a dupe rare/mythic from event/qb is almost 100%

I was fortunate enough to finish top 5 in NoP this week, as well as last week.

They generously gave me the same OGW mythic card this week as last week for the Event reward (Kozilek the Great Distortion). I suppose it's only a 1 in 12 chance, but still that hurts. Or are the Event rewards fixed or limited pool of possible cards?

Barrelrolla

mouser wrote:

Or are the Event rewards fixed or limited pool of possible cards?

Yes, the pool is 2 cards per player.

majincob

Barrelrolla wrote:

mouser wrote:

Or are the Event rewards fixed or limited pool of possible cards?

Yes, the pool is 2 cards per player.

Thanks for being the outlier Barrelrolla, statistically someone was going to get the shaft, glad it wasn't me .

But please don't use bitterness and confirmation bias to spread misinformation. As I've pointed out in other posts there is no reason to suspect the devs spent any time or effort programming a complex algorithm for card rewards just because one person got weird unlikely results. Because it's random if you get enough people the chances of mostly dupes in one persons collection is pretty high, much higher than every person getting few dupes.

Morphis

majincob wrote:

Barrelrolla wrote:

mouser wrote:

Or are the Event rewards fixed or limited pool of possible cards?

Yes, the pool is 2 cards per player.

Thanks for being the outlier Barrelrolla, statistically someone was going to get the shaft, glad it wasn't me .

But please don't use bitterness and confirmation bias to spread misinformation. As I've pointed out in other posts there is no reason to suspect the devs spent any time or effort programming a complex algorithm for card rewards just because one person got weird unlikely results. Because it's random if you get enough people the chances of mostly dupes in one persons collection is pretty high, much higher than every person getting few dupes.

I think developers programmed specific drop for specific players.
Since They like me more than any other player they decided to code the game to grant me two different non dupes mythics from the pool it the best ones in SoI for this week....

RNG is RNG.

The overall drop rate being nerfed if compared to past is no news.

It being too low is a shared feeling.

Claiming it is adjusted on purpose to give duplicate it's just wrong.

Barrelrolla

I thought it's clear my post was sarcastic, I didn't want to spread misinformation.
BUT
You cannot tell me that at least 4 different people getting the same mythic reward from coalition standing 3 times in a row is RNG.
I bet you there is a code that gives higher % to cards you already have.

fox1342

Barrelrolla wrote:

I thought it's clear my post was sarcastic, I didn't want to spread misinformation.
BUT
You cannot tell me that at least 4 different people getting the same mythic reward from coalition standing 3 times in a row is RNG.
I bet you there is a code that gives higher % to cards you already have.

Very unlikely. But it is likely that the pool of M rewards is much smaller than the total M cards. There's only between 4-6 SOI M for each colour. The odds on a dup are very high.

Barrelrolla

fox1342 wrote:

Barrelrolla wrote:

I thought it's clear my post was sarcastic, I didn't want to spread misinformation.
BUT
You cannot tell me that at least 4 different people getting the same mythic reward from coalition standing 3 times in a row is RNG.
I bet you there is a code that gives higher % to cards you already have.

Very unlikely. But it is likely that the pool of M rewards is much smaller than the total M cards. There's only between 4-6 SOI M for each colour. The odds on a dup are very high.

I'm fine with a dupe, but 3/3 events the same card?

glggwp

there is no official word that dup rate is not a coded thing
also if they limit the pool of the potential rewards, they basically achieve the same results: dup for many people!

glggwp

Barrelrolla wrote:

fox1342 wrote:

Barrelrolla wrote:

I thought it's clear my post was sarcastic, I didn't want to spread misinformation.
BUT
You cannot tell me that at least 4 different people getting the same mythic reward from coalition standing 3 times in a row is RNG.
I bet you there is a code that gives higher % to cards you already have.

Very unlikely. But it is likely that the pool of M rewards is much smaller than the total M cards. There's only between 4-6 SOI M for each colour. The odds on a dup are very high.

I'm fine with a dupe, but 3/3 events the same card?

if your reward pool is one card, that result is very likely!

paralistalon

The original drop rate nerf came when zendikar was released.

huntly

paralistalon wrote:

The original drop rate nerf came when zendikar was released.

This one is in some way true.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=48037&hilit=origins+cards
In this thread you will find a post stating how the vision of the game changed away from everyone having access to every card.

It seems as though they nerfed it too much. Help push the issue by dropping a like in this thread
viewtopic.php?f=36&t=49913

Morphis

huntly wrote:

paralistalon wrote:

The original drop rate nerf came when zendikar was released.

This one is in some way true.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=48037&hilit=origins+cards
In this thread you will find a post stating how the vision of the game changed away from everyone having access to every card.

It seems as though they nerfed it too much. Help push the issue by dropping a like in this thread
viewtopic.php?f=36&t=49913

The nerf to rate was really hard and it blocked progression for a long time.
With introduction of pve event the collection progression was brought again to a good point.
Then it was taken away and we got a problem again.

Now coalition rewards in addition to event reward make it once again not "that" bad if you get a good placement and a good coalition reward.
I know many people are not in such a a position so for them it feels too slow.

Average level I think it's is simply slow(not too slow) with current reward system being the sum of free booster, login reward, competition reward, coalition reward and QB if you want to compete also there.