Did they do another ninja drop rate nerf?

span_argoman

Let's talk numbers. I've been tracking the drop rates of every pack I've opened except the 8-hour packs. I've sorted them according to sets cause I notice the set card distribution makes a difference to the drop rate. The Allies special offer pack previously was the most obvious example, I drew 22.2% rares excluding the guaranteed rare for each 600-crystal box (5 packs of 3 cards + 1 guaranteed rare) due to the distribution. I've also done this cause I only collect my own drops and that of pack openings by friends which I witness so the data for non-SOI drops post 1.6 is pitifully few.

I don't take data from the thread where people post their drops cause people there don't post all their drops so the ones they post might be prone to selection bias, ie. posting the ones that seem significantly good or bad. If people are interested though, I could set up a Google form for people to submit their drops so that we have more data to work on. You will need to track all (or almost all) your drops though to avoid bias.

SoI
C/UC/R/M
Big Box, 5 boxes
56.6% / 38.9% / 3.7% / 0.9% (excluding guaranteed rare)
55.8% / 38.3% / 5.1% / 0.8% (including guaranteed rare)
Fat Pack, 2 packs
57.5% / 37.5% / 5.0% / 0.0%
5-card Booster, 15 packs
54.7% / 38.7% / 5.3% / 1.3%
Total
465 cards: 56.3% / 38.7% / 4.1% / 0.9% (excluding guaranteed rare)
470 cards: 55.7% / 38.3% / 5.1% / 0.9% (including guaranteed rare)

BFZ (including OGW cards but excluding the bonus OGW booster/card)
C/UC/R/M
Big Box, 10 boxes
52.5% / 41.7% / 4.3% / 1.6%
Fat Pack, 11 packs
55.5% / 40.0% / 4.0% / 0.5%
5-card Booster, 40 packs
54.5% / 39.5% / 4.0% / 2.0%
Total
1,101 cards: 53.4% / 41.0% / 4.2% / 1.5%

OGW (including the bonus OGW booster/card from BFZ packs)
C/UC/R/M
5-card Booster, 23 packs
0.0% / 76.5% / 20.9% / 2.6% (including guaranteed rare)
Single Bonus Card from BFZ Fat Packs, 10 cards
0% / 60% / 30% / 10%
Total
125 cards: 75.2% / 21.6% / 3.2%

Set Cards Rarity Distribution
How many cards of each rarity there are in the set.
C/UC/R/M
SoI: 39.4% / 30.1% / 18.1% / 12.4%
BFZ: 33.3% / 33.7% / 20.6% / 12.4%

I think it might be hard to tell whether the drop rate decrease comes from SoI having less rares or whether there's an actual change in the drop rates.

Pqmtg-

span_argoman wrote:

Let's talk numbers. I've been tracking the drop rates of every pack I've opened except the 8-hour packs. I've sorted them according to sets cause I notice the set card distribution makes a difference to the drop rate. The Allies special offer pack previously was the most obvious example, I drew 22.2% rares excluding the guaranteed rare for each 600-crystal box (5 packs of 3 cards + 1 guaranteed rare) due to the distribution. I've also done this cause I only collect my own drops and that of pack openings by friends which I witness so the data for non-SOI drops post 1.6 is pitifully few.

I don't take data from the thread where people post their drops cause people there don't post all their drops so the ones they post might be prone to selection bias, ie. posting the ones that seem significantly good or bad. If people are interested though, I could set up a Google form for people to submit their drops so that we have more data to work on. You will need to track all (or almost all) your drops though to avoid bias.

SoI
C/UC/R/M
Big Box, 5 boxes
56.6% / 38.9% / 3.7% / 0.9% (excluding guaranteed rare)
55.8% / 38.3% / 5.1% / 0.8% (including guaranteed rare)
Fat Pack, 2 packs
57.5% / 37.5% / 5.0% / 0.0%
5-card Booster, 15 packs
54.7% / 38.7% / 5.3% / 1.3%
Total
465 cards: 56.3% / 38.7% / 4.1% / 0.9% (excluding guaranteed rare)
470 cards: 55.7% / 38.3% / 5.1% / 0.9% (including guaranteed rare)

BFZ (including OGW cards but excluding the bonus OGW booster/card)
C/UC/R/M
Big Box, 10 boxes
52.5% / 41.7% / 4.3% / 1.6%
Fat Pack, 11 packs
55.5% / 40.0% / 4.0% / 0.5%
5-card Booster, 40 packs
54.5% / 39.5% / 4.0% / 2.0%
Total
1,101 cards: 53.4% / 41.0% / 4.2% / 1.5%

OGW (including the bonus OGW booster/card from BFZ packs)
C/UC/R/M
5-card Booster, 23 packs
0.0% / 76.5% / 20.9% / 2.6% (including guaranteed rare)
Single Bonus Card from BFZ Fat Packs, 10 cards
0% / 60% / 30% / 10%
Total
125 cards: 75.2% / 21.6% / 3.2%

Set Cards Rarity Distribution
How many cards of each rarity there are in the set.
C/UC/R/M
SoI: 39.4% / 30.1% / 18.1% / 12.4%
BFZ: 33.3% / 33.7% / 20.6% / 12.4%

I think it might be hard to tell whether the drop rate decrease comes from SoI having less rares or whether there's an actual change in the drop rates.

Great input with the numbers. Thanks for taking the trouble. A little sore about your ally numbers though. I opened 3 big boxes and got 0% Rares outside the guaranteed ones.

span_argoman

Pqmtg- wrote:

Great input with the numbers. Thanks for taking the trouble. A little sore about your ally numbers though. I opened 3 big boxes and got 0% Rares outside the guaranteed ones.

Which Ally set are you referring to? The latest Ally + Angel one or the earlier Allies only set towards the end of OGW? My drop rate came from the earlier Allies only set, each 'Big Box' was only 15+1 cards. If you got no rares or mythics out of the 45 cards I think that was seriously terrible luck. The number of rare cards in that set was like 10 out of 81 cards.

Pqmtg-

span_argoman wrote:

Pqmtg- wrote:

Great input with the numbers. Thanks for taking the trouble. A little sore about your ally numbers though. I opened 3 big boxes and got 0% Rares outside the guaranteed ones.

Which Ally set are you referring to? The latest Ally + Angel one or the earlier Allies only set towards the end of OGW? My drop rate came from the earlier Allies only set, each 'Big Box' was only 15+1 cards. If you got no rares or mythics out of the 45 cards I think that was seriously terrible luck. The number of rare cards in that set was like 10 out of 81 cards.

Yup that's the one. I didn't believe my terrible luck either. That's why I tried thrice.