Did they do another ninja drop rate nerf?

paralistalon

We all know that when the game was first released, you would get a rare almost every other pack. Then they secretly reduced the drop rate for rares and everyone felt this. I would say it was down to maybe a 20% chance of getting a rare after BFZ was released. Now that SOI came out, and I've purchased/obtained quite a few packs of it by now, I've experienced the drop rate for rares to be something like 10%. It's to the point where I have zero excitement anymore when I win a pack or even buy a fat pack because the chance of getting anything worthwhile is so low. I think this is a major problem, because if there's a new set that was just released but I have almost no motivation to keep playing to get new cards, I think that says something about the state of the game. Although, I played against quite a few Avacyns in the last node challenge... so maybe it's just a better business model for you to sell rares directly for $15 and mythics for $30 that you can't get in booster packs at all.

PS, I know the devs have said before not to make threads like this because it could hurt their business with the explanation that everyone gets unlucky streaks and we, the players, aren't privy to drop rate information (until they finally put that into law for games like this) but with a sample size of hundreds of packs among the coummunity, the reliability is at least 99%. I regret buying Drana's Chosen when it was available. That was before I realized how horrible the drop rate was, and I don't want to support such practices.

buffbeardo

I just pulled my first rare since August 16. Between then and this morning, only uncommons and commons from free packs twice daily, event packs, and my monthly fat pack. One heck of a cold streak I guess.

P.S. - no mythics since oath was released

shteev

The only way to really be sure about this is to gather some data. RNGs are streaky, randomness doesn't always look like you expect it to. The last couple of times I've gathered a bunch of data in, I've come up with the same results... roughtly 1 rare par Fat Pack, and roughly 1 mythic per Big Box (and 3 rares).

Pqmtg-

shteev wrote:

The only way to really be sure about this is to gather some data. RNGs are streaky, randomness doesn't always look like you expect it to. The last couple of times I've gathered a bunch of data in, I've come up with the same results... roughtly 1 rare par Fat Pack, and roughly 1 mythic per Big Box (and 3 rares).

To add to that, you really need very big data sets to be sure. Randomness is a lot more random than even people who deal with it everyday expects.

glggwp

yes i have the same feeling...

i shed $99 couple of weeks ago for 5 big boxes and all i got were 2 new mythics and maybe 3 new rares...

from then on, i only buy cards and pws. no more mana crystal purchases!

glggwp

shteev wrote:

The only way to really be sure about this is to gather some data. RNGs are streaky, randomness doesn't always look like you expect it to. The last couple of times I've gathered a bunch of data in, I've come up with the same results... roughtly 1 rare par Fat Pack, and roughly 1 mythic per Big Box (and 3 rares).

this data sounds about rite. but when factoring the duplicates...

Mangus 73

Agreed, I've not seen a mythic in 6 weeks and in that same period except from the guaranteed ones I've only had 2 rares and that is from a lot of packs of all sizes.

Khebab

Feel the same... fat packs, reward boosters, free basic boosters...not a single rare...and I had put some effort to obtain a lot of these...

Big boxes (got three since new expansion release) roughly had 1 mythic and 2-4 rares...some of them duplicates...

Bit disapointed, so to say...

Shipwreck

Its random, my last too BBs had 1 mythic and 2 rares for the first and 2 rares for the second. My last 2 fat Packs had about the same, 3 rares and a mythic and 2 rares. If you get enough packs eventually it'll improve.

nerdstrap

random is random - I felt the same way, and then my SOI BB yesterday had 3 mythics and 6 rares - its all random

games like hearthstone and paper magic have guaranteed slots - this game doesnt

buffbeardo

No nerfs, You got rng'd. Nerfs don't exist, just rng. Sorry, roll again and have a drink.

ShawnP1

Actually from the things I've heard and experienced it seems that each player has specific cards that duplicate for them, because the chances of getting the same commons or uncommons repeatedly say 20 to 30 times if not more but yet never once obtaining various others should have a greater unlikelihood then pulling rares or mythic. For example I tried to get various commons from bfz and yet I always get duplicates, this happens with dupe rares as well; judging by the many posts I've followed since this games started this occurs to literally every player. RNG could be blamed for this except as mentioned above the chance for pulling a 30th or higher dupe common over a new common should be astronomically unlikely. Now what I think is that it is very easy to do this, without lying to us about drop rates but to still ensure many dupes; they simply have a program that tracks an account and marks certain cards as that account's duplicates upon first opening a set, this seems the case in my experience as my first Origins and BFZ rares are Turn to Frog and Zada Hedron Grinder respectively, these are also my dupe rares. This could be partially because I don't spend money on this game and therefore have much less chance for drawing cards. But hey just my thoughts. I'll keep track of my SOI rares and let you know. And I know conspiracy theories blah blah blah. Now's the perfect time for conspiracies. Lol

Pqmtg-

ShawnP1 wrote:

Actually from the things I've heard and experienced it seems that each player has specific cards that duplicate for them, because the chances of getting the same commons or uncommons repeatedly say 20 to 30 times if not more but yet never once obtaining various others should have a greater unlikelihood then pulling rares or mythic. For example I tried to get various commons from bfz and yet I always get duplicates, this happens with dupe rares as well; judging by the many posts I've followed since this games started this occurs to literally every player. RNG could be blamed for this except as mentioned above the chance for pulling a 30th or higher dupe common over a new common should be astronomically unlikely. Now what I think is that it is very easy to do this, without lying to us about drop rates but to still ensure many dupes; they simply have a program that tracks an account and marks certain cards as that account's duplicates upon first opening a set, this seems the case in my experience as my first Origins and BFZ rares are Turn to Frog and Zada Hedron Grinder respectively, these are also my dupe rares. This could be partially because I don't spend money on this game and therefore have much less chance for drawing cards. But hey just my thoughts. I'll keep track of my SOI rares and let you know. And I know conspiracy theories blah blah blah. Now's the perfect time for conspiracies. Lol

Your first Rares are also mathematically the most probable to be your dupe Rares.


If you're looking for a unnatural reason for getting dupes, there is no need to look for conspiracy theories when a simple explanation is possible. Every novice programmer makes this mistake at some point or other when they do rng. The seed value set at a constant will always give you the same random result in a string of generated pseudo random numbers. A more plausible theory is that they just set the seed to something static like your player id.

buffbeardo

Pqmtg- wrote:

A more plausible theory is that they just set the seed to something static like your player id.

This! I've pulled 11 mythics in the last 9 months, 2 being duplicates.

buffbeardo

Rng and player id are Lannisters!!!!!

Pqmtg-

buffbeardo wrote:

Pqmtg- wrote:

A more plausible theory is that they just set the seed to something static like your player id.

This! I've pulled 11 mythics in the last 9 months, 2 being duplicates.

That's actually only slightly worse than the expected result right? Anyone did the math yet?

buffbeardo

Did you take into account 6 big boxes purchased (3 origins, 2 zendikar, 1 shadow). A few fat packs along the way? Free monthly fat packs since instituted? Plus daily free packs at least twice daily since conception and runes spent for packs prior to that? Plus, packs from quick battles since conception and reward packs from pve and pvp event? 9 out of 80 unique mythics sir. That's what I have.

Mangus 73

I'm a UK player and sat up till 3am to get top 10 for my fat pack to get rubbish, again. To make it worse my rare prize was a copy. By having such low drops they are devaluing the event prizes and making the packs worthless.
The only way to make them listen is with your wallet, stop buying packs and they will soon take notice and to d3, the old your hurting the game line is so lame.
It's your pathetic drop rates that are hurting the game.
I run a top 100 alliance in Mpq and your drops are terrible in comparison.
Actually I'm not being fair, I did manage to get another 20k in crystals I can't do anything with lol.

madwren

ShawnP1 wrote:

Actually from the things I've heard and experienced it seems that each player has specific cards that duplicate for them, because the chances of getting the same commons or uncommons repeatedly say 20 to 30 times if not more but yet never once obtaining various others should have a greater unlikelihood then pulling rares or mythic. For example I tried to get various commons from bfz and yet I always get duplicates, this happens with dupe rares as well; judging by the many posts I've followed since this games started this occurs to literally every player. RNG could be blamed for this except as mentioned above the chance for pulling a 30th or higher dupe common over a new common should be astronomically unlikely. Now what I think is that it is very easy to do this, without lying to us about drop rates but to still ensure many dupes; they simply have a program that tracks an account and marks certain cards as that account's duplicates upon first opening a set, this seems the case in my experience as my first Origins and BFZ rares are Turn to Frog and Zada Hedron Grinder respectively, these are also my dupe rares. This could be partially because I don't spend money on this game and therefore have much less chance for drawing cards. But hey just my thoughts. I'll keep track of my SOI rares and let you know. And I know conspiracy theories blah blah blah. Now's the perfect time for conspiracies. Lol

I have a longstanding theory that buying boxes after a significant downtime resets your "seed rares" and lets you obtain new cards. I'm looking forward to testing it.

Mangus 73

madwren wrote:

ShawnP1 wrote:

Actually from the things I've heard and experienced it seems that each player has specific cards that duplicate for them, because the chances of getting the same commons or uncommons repeatedly say 20 to 30 times if not more but yet never once obtaining various others should have a greater unlikelihood then pulling rares or mythic. For example I tried to get various commons from bfz and yet I always get duplicates, this happens with dupe rares as well; judging by the many posts I've followed since this games started this occurs to literally every player. RNG could be blamed for this except as mentioned above the chance for pulling a 30th or higher dupe common over a new common should be astronomically unlikely. Now what I think is that it is very easy to do this, without lying to us about drop rates but to still ensure many dupes; they simply have a program that tracks an account and marks certain cards as that account's duplicates upon first opening a set, this seems the case in my experience as my first Origins and BFZ rares are Turn to Frog and Zada Hedron Grinder respectively, these are also my dupe rares. This could be partially because I don't spend money on this game and therefore have much less chance for drawing cards. But hey just my thoughts. I'll keep track of my SOI rares and let you know. And I know conspiracy theories blah blah blah. Now's the perfect time for conspiracies. Lol

I have a longstanding theory that buying boxes after a significant downtime resets your "seed rares" and lets you obtain new cards. I'm looking forward to testing it.

Interesting theory, might give it a try.

Pqmtg-

buffbeardo wrote:

Did you take into account 6 big boxes purchased (3 origins, 2 zendikar, 1 shadow). A few fat packs along the way? Free monthly fat packs since instituted? Plus daily free packs at least twice daily since conception and runes spent for packs prior to that? Plus, packs from quick battles since conception and reward packs from pve and pvp event? 9 out of 80 unique mythics sir. That's what I have.

Wait are you asking me if I took into account things I couldn't possibly know?


I'm commenting on duplicates based on your mythic hits. 9 out of 11.