Are people popping their classic LT's today?

Vhailorx

No word from Demiurge yet on 5* odds after Banner goes live tomorrow.

When IM40 and 5*Cap entered the pool, demiurge sneakily raised the odds for everything, so it was better to have waited (though no one had any prior notice, so I doubt many people did; I know I didn't).

Are people waiting, or cracking open their stockpiles now? Gotta maximize the chance of getting those precious OML covers. . .

OneLastGambit

If one were cynical they might conclude that perhaps the odds were increased previously as the devs knew there was another 5* incoming in a month...if one were cynical.

Mawtful

Moving GG to Classics will change the draw chance for any given 5* character to 3.33% again. I think this is the "magic" number that Demiurge doesn't want to dip below. I'm predicting that the 15% combined draw rate for 5*'s will remain. This means that anybody chasing OML or Goblin covers specifically will probably be better served opening the respective tokens today.

The next 5* after Banner (whomever it is) will signal the next major change for 5* tokens & draw rates.

Vhailorx

I think everyone knew there was another 5* coming in just over a month. they have been more or less 1 a month since introduction.

Sept -- SS
October -- OML
November -- Phoenix
December -- ??
January -- BSS
February -- GG
March -- ??
April/May-- IM46/5*Cap
May -- ??
June -- ??
July -- Banner

It's not exactly clockwork, but it is easy enough to predict.

I think the cynical view is that Demiurge didn't announce the LT 5* drop rate change in advance so that people would spend all their LT's before IM46 and 5*Cap joined the pool, only to discover that they would have been 50% more likely to pull 5*s if they had just waited. People who just spent all their LTs before the odds improved are eager for more. . .

Vhailorx

Mawtful wrote:

Moving GG to Classics will change the draw chance for any given 5* character to 3.33% again. I think this is the "magic" number that Demiurge doesn't want to dip below. I'm predicting that the 15% combined draw rate for 5*'s will remain. This means that anybody chasing OML or Goblin covers specifically will probably be better served opening the respective tokens today.

The next 5* after Banner (whomever it is) will signal the next major change for 5* tokens & draw rates.

Won't a 5th 5* in the classic pool drop everyone to 3%, rather than 3.3%?

Mawtful

Vhailorx wrote:

Mawtful wrote:

Moving GG to Classics will change the draw chance for any given 5* character to 3.33% again. I think this is the "magic" number that Demiurge doesn't want to dip below. I'm predicting that the 15% combined draw rate for 5*'s will remain. This means that anybody chasing OML or Goblin covers specifically will probably be better served opening the respective tokens today.

The next 5* after Banner (whomever it is) will signal the next major change for 5* tokens & draw rates.

Won't a 5th 5* in the classic pool drop everyone to 3%, rather than 3.3%?

I hadn't had my coffee yet. But yes, 15/5 = 3. 3 is the magic number.

I wonder if the 10th 5* would be enough to push all of them into a single token again - make the draw rate 3% per 5* character for a total of 30% chance, and the 70% remainder used to cover 4* characters.

scottee

You lose .75% chance on OML, but would later have a 6% chance at either OML or GG.

DFiPL

Mawtful wrote:

Vhailorx wrote:

Mawtful wrote:

Moving GG to Classics will change the draw chance for any given 5* character to 3.33% again. I think this is the "magic" number that Demiurge doesn't want to dip below. I'm predicting that the 15% combined draw rate for 5*'s will remain. This means that anybody chasing OML or Goblin covers specifically will probably be better served opening the respective tokens today.

The next 5* after Banner (whomever it is) will signal the next major change for 5* tokens & draw rates.

Won't a 5th 5* in the classic pool drop everyone to 3%, rather than 3.3%?

I hadn't had my coffee yet. But yes, 15/5 = 3. 3 is the magic number.

I wonder if the 10th 5* would be enough to push all of them into a single token again - make the draw rate 3% per 5* character for a total of 30% chance, and the 70% remainder used to cover 4* characters.

At which point, what? get rid of classic legends, or turn that into a 4*-only token?

Pongie

You'll get your wish of a 5* only token when there are more than 33 5* in the game to warrant 33 5* in the classic token with 3.33% odds each

Mawtful

DFiPL wrote:

At which point, what? get rid of classic legends, or turn that into a 4*-only token?

Maybe? A 3-4* token would be fantastic, even though I'm already kinda past that point of progression (I still want champ levels, so it would retain a bit of usefulness).

Honestly, I don't know. Tokens are a mess. Endgame progression based on RNG is a mess. If there's a neat solution it'll be implemented in MPQ2.

Quebbster

I buy a Classic LT whenever I have 20 CP or more, so this won't affect my spending one bit.

ZeiramMR

I went through half my LTs and CPs a few days ago (I was getting close to the ISO to champion a character). Will spend the rest next time I get above 200k.

SnowcaTT

scottee wrote:

You lose .75% chance on OML, but would later have a 6% chance at either OML or GG.

I considered it for awhile then realized I -still- only have three covers of the only character that matters, and some folks say GG is better (yeah...maybe for the last match...the reason you will still see OML -everywhere- is true healing is now utterly broken in this game.)

So I'll just be sitting and trying to save on ISO while it switches over. Hopefully D3 does a better job in a month letting us know percentages before it goes live. Where is that laughy smilie...there it is....

simonsez

My pull rate on the 15% tokens is worse than it was before they upped it, so maybe if they go back to 10% I won't feel as angry over my 7% pull rate.

Vhailorx

well, I suspect that upping the 5* drop rate for two 5* releases in a row is too much to expect from demiurge. So I took the risk and opened my small stockpile of 11 LTs.

Not exactly bad, but frustrating

2x IMHB covers (champ levels. Very solid)
1x XFW cover (champ level)
1x Nova (9th cover for him, yay!)
1x x-23 (8th cover for her, still need more red, but yay!)
1x Pun (4th cover for him, yay!)
1x Fantastic (technically a cover that I needed. thoroughly meh)
1x Drax (first black for him, still meh)
1x Elektra (she has been 13/13 for more than a year, and is 12 in line for ISO right now, boooo!)
1x Gwen (possibly the single worst 4* power in the game not on CHulk, but technically usable for me. Booooo!)
1x Iceman (heartbreaking. he's sitting at 3/5/3 )

So I beat my odds in terms of getting usable covers from the tokens; only 2 useless covers. But no 5*s, and that iceman really breaks my heart. Hope Demiurge doesn't pour salt in the wound by upping 5* rates later today. . .

LordXberk

Still hoarding here. I'm definitely going to wait until Peggy is put in tokens before I consider opening my LTs / CPs.

GrumpySmurf1002

I've been opening my LTs and saving CP anyway, but if I had a bigger stockpile of LTs I'd have opened them before Hulk. Based on the early descriptions, I have no real desire to add him to the roster.

Vhailorx

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

I've been opening my LTs and saving CP anyway, but if I had a bigger stockpile of LTs I'd have opened them before Hulk. Based on the early descriptions, I have no real desire to add him to the roster.

I would have agreed, based on the early descriptions. But with the bombshell (IMO) that Cthulhu dropped yesterday morning (i.e., that banner and Hulk both spawn at full health whenever a transformation happens), I think Banner might be a real beast. (then again, I still opened my LTs on the thinking that more IM46 or GG covers would still be more valuable to me than a single Banner cover that will languish on my bench for the next year. I am now back to hoarding LTs until the next 5* is announced)

BlackSheep101

Hulk spawns with full health. Banner comes back with the health he had before transforming.

pheregas

Dropped two hoping for slightly better OML odds. Got Xpool and KP. Not complaining as they are both Champed.

Vhailorx

Double post. Sorry.