Odds of not having a bad time on a legendary token?

theorangemisfit
theorangemisfit Posts: 21
edited July 2016 in MPQ General Discussion
Calculating values is fun!

15% 5 stars

85% 4 stars

Assign each 4 star a value of 3 (1 for each cover color) (currently 33, 33 x 3 = 99)

Calculate 4 stars that would infuriate you if you received that cover as you have no desire/use for it.

Play that statistic in your head when you open a cover.

Mine:

5 stars are 5 stars, I'd poop my pants even if I got that horribly weak 1 cover for black suit spidey. (15%)

4 stars

The ones I trash: Drax, kate bishop, miles, mr fantastic, quake, sam wilson, star lord, troll hulk, winter soldier (27 covers)

Covers I have no use for: Thor yellow, elektra purple (2 covers)

So there are 70 4 star covers that I would be tolerant/happy to receive.

So 70/99 = 70.7% (x.85) = 60% + 15% = 75%

So when I open a legendary token, there's a 75% I'm going to be not mad. If there's one thing this game has taught us, is that statistics are meaningless, but it's still nice to think about...
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Comments

  • Vhailorx
    Vhailorx Posts: 6,085 Chairperson of the Boards
    I would not trash quake or kate bishop. Both very strong characters. (personally, I like Bucky too. And flaptain has his uses, but I don't think either is top tier.)

    I have a somewhat similar theoretical rate of disapointment. And yet somehow this is the one RNG counter where I seem to consistently 'beat' the odds.
  • padei_panda
    padei_panda Posts: 55 Match Maker
    Well, I have tracked my LT token pulls since the beginning and have found that I am sitting at 10% chance of getting a dupe i.e. I have 5 covers for already.

    Of course, as my covers begin to fill up, this will increase in %.
    But for now, 10% seems to be the constant rate...
    So there, my odds of not having a bad time from LT is 90%

    P.S. I don't mind getting Drax, Kate, Miles, Mr F, Star lord, etc as I will need them to win CotT. I managed to get my Starlord to 12 covers which allowed me beat Gamora... so it's not all too bad. Icing on the cake was it became a Captain America cover.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    Fun game. I have 22 champed fourstars, and of the non-champed fourstars there's a grand total of nine covers I cannot use at the moment. I do have four five-star colors maxed out though (all for characters in Classic tokens), so I Think I have a bigger chance to be disappointed in a 5* pull than a 4* pull.
  • Xenoberyll
    Xenoberyll Posts: 647 Critical Contributor
    There's 442 covers for 4 stars and 91 for 5s. I need 50 for the 4s (45 excluding Duck and Dino) and 54 for 5s....Calculations say I need more ISO to champ people.
  • Wolarsen
    Wolarsen Posts: 326 Mover and Shaker
    By coincidence, I made a very similar calculation some days ago.
    I try to collect all characters, so I would even gruntly welcome a Cho cover if I had its power under 3.

    * Chars I have cover-maxed but do not intend to champion midterm (Antman, Elektra, Inv.Woman, Fury, FalCap, Starlord, Chulk, ProffX): 24 covers
    * Chars I cannot champion but have already 5 covers of a color: 7
    * Chars I have cover-maxed but under lvl200, so needing a heap of ISO I do not have (Cyclops, Kingpin, Nova, X23): 12 covers. In fact, I have a Nova cover and a Kingpin cover that are breaking my heart.

    * Champed characters: 12 covers
    * Acceptable covers: 44

    WOULD SELL: 43 covers
    WOULD TAKE: 56 covers

    I will keep opening until I reach 50% of sellable covers, then I will start hoarding.
  • PeterGibbons316
    PeterGibbons316 Posts: 1,063
    I have 10 champed 4*s, and can use all but one 5* cover. Realistically opening LTs is my only way of progressing via 5* pulls, so I've got an 85% chance of having a bad time, and a 1.25% chance of throwing my phone through the wall.
  • mpqr7
    mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
    I will gladly take any of the following:

    * Cover I don't yet have 5 of that color or 13 total
    * Character I've championed

    I don't care about any specific character. So the ones I don't like are the opposite of the ones above, ie non-champed characters with over 5 of a specific color or 13 total.

    I currently have 12 non-championed 4*s at 13 covers, as well as a few with 5 of a cover, so there's a very good chance that most LTs are useless for me, probably around 40%? I'm guessing, so no need to tell me I'm super wrong and it's really only 20% or 60% etc.
  • Meander
    Meander Posts: 267 Mover and Shaker
    I used to do a similar calculation to this to decide when I should stop opening and hoard until I could champ more. Then I felt like I was maybe falling behind in the 5* game so I kept opening. Suffice to say, aside from newer releases (Pun forward), any other cover is a champ level or a fail in 4* land. I try not to calculate exactly because I'll get depressed.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    The only covers that are going to help me progress are an OML red, or a PHX purple or red. My chances of getting one of these is 3.75%. It's been 57 pulls since I last got one of these. The odds of whiffing 57 times in a row with a 3.75% hit rate is only about 11%. So no, it's really not nice to think about...
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    The only covers that are going to help me progress are an OML red, or a PHX purple or red. My chances of getting one of these is 3.75%. It's been 57 pulls since I last got one of these. The odds of whiffing 57 times in a row with a 3.75% hit rate is only about 11%. So no, it's really not nice to think about...
    That's why I try to champion as many 4* as I can while waiting for more 5* covers: the champion rewards make it a lot less of a dud pull. I like to see each 4* cover I get as 2½ CP...
  • SnowcaTT
    SnowcaTT Posts: 3,487 Chairperson of the Boards
    High odds for me it seems, I keep throwing covers left and right that I'd rather not. I've started hoarding CP/LT and won't open until I get 600K ISO - enough to champ two 4*'s that I'd waste two covers on if I pull them.

    But then I'll pull plenty of IW, Cho, SL, Elecktra, and Mr F....and I won't be wasting ISO to champ them, instead I'll be gaining ISO by selling their terrible, terrible covers.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Quebbster wrote:
    That's why I try to champion as many 4* as I can while waiting for more 5* covers:
    I do too. Gwen is my latest, and Drax will probably be my next. So you can see, I'm really scraping. And let's be honest, even though it beats selling for ISO, once you've champed the top tier, 4* covers aren't really helping you progress any.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    Quebbster wrote:
    That's why I try to champion as many 4* as I can while waiting for more 5* covers:
    I do too. Gwen is my latest, and Drax will probably be my next. So you can see, I'm really scraping. And let's be honest, even though it beats selling for ISO, once you've champed the top tier, 4* covers aren't really helping you progress any.
    I prefer the "glass half full" approach. icon_e_smile.gif I am in no rush to move to the 5* tier because that will invalidate most of my 4* roster and so far I am enjoying playing them a lot.
  • Jarvind
    Jarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    Dude. Don't trash Quake. Why.
  • mpqr7
    mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    Once you've champed the top tier, 4* covers aren't really helping you progress any.

    That's what bugs me so much about this game. I already have a lv 405 OML, plus champed Iceman, Rhulk, JG, HB and many other top tier 4*s.

    So at this point, all I'm doing is simply champing other low-tier 4*s so that I can win prizes from them instead of simply selling their covers for a measly 1000 ISO. I haven't had any actual significant progress in months, when I drew my previous OML. So it's been a lot of spinning my wheels, which is why I'm playing other games now, since I'm in less of a rush to champ random low-tier 4*s that won't make a significant impact to my playing.

    It's not even particularly fun to play with them, because I'd rather use the powers of the better characters instead.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    mpqr7 wrote:
    That's what bugs me so much about this game.
    You and me both. I'd love to use 4*s other than once every 2 months when they're buffed, but the devs refuse to install any 4* content, no matter how many times people suggest it and complain about how stagnant the game has become.
  • theorangemisfit
    theorangemisfit Posts: 21
    Jarvind wrote:
    Dude. Don't trash Quake. Why.

    You've gotta draw the line somewhere...

    For me:

    1) Do I like the character? Have I even heard of them before this game?

    2) Are they in the top 25% of 4 stars?

    If no and no, they're gone.
  • BlackSheep101
    BlackSheep101 Posts: 2,025 Chairperson of the Boards
    theorangemisfit wrote:
    Jarvind wrote:
    Dude. Don't trash Quake. Why.
    2) Are they in the top 25% of 4 stars?
    But, she is...
  • Jarvind
    Jarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    theorangemisfit wrote:
    Jarvind wrote:
    Dude. Don't trash Quake. Why.

    2) Are they in the top 25% of 4 stars?


    She totally is. Blocks AOE damage, can easily eliminate special tiles with her blue, and an AOE that does a complete board shuffle. She's awesome.
  • theorangemisfit
    theorangemisfit Posts: 21
    BlackSheep101 wrote:
    theorangemisfit wrote:
    Jarvind wrote:
    Dude. Don't trash Quake. Why.
    2) Are they in the top 25% of 4 stars?
    But, she is...

    No. There are 33 4 stars, meaning she would have to be the 9th best. She certainly is not

    Hulkbuster
    Jean Grey
    Iceman
    Cyclops
    Peggy Carter
    Punisher
    Red Hulk
    Kingpin
    Thor

    Are unarguably better. Then there are about 8 more characters that I can think of that are either equal or slightly superior to her. If you like her, fine, use her all you want. But I'll pass.

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