All the tokens for Season XXV

El Satanno

Hello again, everyone! Season's over, and here's my hoard once again. I'm ready to be the object of more hate/envy as this season was also kind to me. On with the show!

The hoard

• 166 silver tokens
• 102 mixed gold tokens
• 8 legendary tokens
• 507 Command Points

The pulls:

Silver tokens
Beast (yellow)
Doctor Octopus (green)

Heroic gold tokens (28)
Falcon (blue)
Cyclops (red)
Quicksilver (green x2)
Jean Grey (blue)
Bag Lady (yellow)
Daken (black)
She-Hulk (green)
Beast (blue)
Red Hulk (green)
Iron Fist (green)
Bullseye (purple)

Heroic 10-pack
Squirrel Girl (purple)
Luke Cage (black)
Nova (black)
Black Widow (purple)

Thick as Thieves (7)
Storm (yellow)
Human Torch (red)

Venom Bomb (6)
Spider-Man (yellow)
Quicksilver (green)

Weapon Tex-Mex (3)
Blade (purple)

High Stakes (3)
Black Widow (green)

Webslinger (3)
Storm (yellow)

Magnetic Mayhem (3)
Kamala Khan (purple)

Starfall (3)
Cyclops (red)

Let's Be Frank (3)
Rocket & Groot (yellow)

Lightning Offer (5, 2)
Ghost Rider (red)
Loki (green)
Magneto (blue)

Iso-8 Brotherhood (6, vault)
Bullseye (black)

Dark Avengers: Heroic (6, vault)
Ragnarok (green)
Patch (red)

Simulator (5, vault)
Falcon (purple)
Psylocke (black)
Legendary token
Iron Man (blue)

Enemy of the State (10, vault)
She-Hulk (green)

Women of Power (3, vault)
Captain Marvel (black)

Legendary tokens (8 + 1 from rewards)
Ant-Man (yellow)
X-23 (red)
Faptain (red)
Cyclops (yellow)
Nova (yellow)
Thing (yellow)
Kingpin (purple)
Star-Turd (yellow)

Legendary tokens (500 Command Points)
Kingpin (purple, black x2, yellow)
Carnage (black, green, red)
Elektra's worthless **** (red)
Mr. Sucktastic (black, yellow)
Faptain (blue)
Iceman (purple x4)
Red Hulk (purple)
Venom (yellow)
Bag Lady (yellow)
Wolverine (X-Force) (green)
Logan (red, yellow, black)!!!
Professor X (yellow)
Nick Fury (purple)
Ant-Man (purple)

The following events paid out nothing valuable

• Sharp Dressed (3)
• Earth's Mightiest (3)

Grand Iso total from cover sales and champion rewards: 74,550

Observations and (purely subjective) conclusions:

1. Despite having far fewer silver tokens than usual (thanks mostly to being locked out for a week and the god-awful PvE test) I still did okay getting two good pulls. I have a bit of love for silver tokens.
2. Heroic tokens were very good to me. Almost 50%, and two 4* pulls...well, one 4* pull and one Bag Lady. They came in a row which was interesting. Either way, yay gold tokens!
3. Legendary tokens sure were something this season. I was starting to get kinda glum towards the end, and then BOOM, three Logan covers and one each to boot! Hot diggity dog! I was ready to call it a win after pulling the red cover first, but after the other two I thought my nipples would fly off. (They did not.)
4. The Logan streak aside, notice also I pulled five Kingpin covers, and four Iceman purple. Only purple! Talk about streaky pulls. Can you imagine the fury if that was Star-Turd or some other **** character? Well, I'm super happy that I hit Logan instead of Surfer like last time...
5. ...which of course brings up my luck with these things. Last season I pulled 5* covers at 25%, this season 11.3%, while at least two of my alliance mates have lifetime records of something stupid like 3/100. This is ridiculous, to say the least.

As a final point, I must once more repeat my standard opinion on 4* characters. Thankfully I only pulled a few stinkers, and even managed to avoid Loser Hulk (aka Manure, aka Cho), but it is still completely unacceptable for any characters of this tier to be so bad as to make people angry at pulling them. They either need to be rebuilt to be acceptable, dumped to a lower tier, or scrapped completely. Until then, I will continue to use the Iso from selling them to level up my 2* Magneto in (admittedly kinda lame) protest. Once he's done I'll put the Iso into the stinkier 3* I don't have champed yet. Because f* bad 4*s!

On a related note, Silver Surfer really needs a balance pass. Don't get me wrong, he's not bad by any stretch of the imagination. However when you consider that I pulled four of his covers last season and yet he hasn't received a single Iso, something must be wrong. In the absence of other options he's certainly attractive. But against his peers in the 5* tier he is an easy candidate for last place. Even against the option to champion a 4* character he's not so appealing as the potential for further rewards from that champion outweigh the benefit of a higher-level Surfer. This should not be the case.

Anyway, that's enough outta me for now. I'll be back next season with another hoard, y'all!

billsrule7

Congrats Dan, glad someone is pulling some 5*'s! Also, totally agree with you on your SS thoughts.

Mawtful

Always a great read.

Also, 2* Magneto is legit. Way more legit than Chulk. I say that's ISO well spent!

like1tiger

Thanks for the info really interesting read

simonsez

El Satanno wrote:

Iceman (purple x4)

I'm glad you do this every season, so the people who keep saying "cherry-picking!" have at least one thread where they can STFU.

Anyway, even in 33 pulls, the odds of getting a 4 bagger are very unlikely, if the odds were what we're being told they are. Very familiar story...

carrion_pigeons

simonsez wrote:

El Satanno wrote:

Iceman (purple x4)

I'm glad you do this every season, so the people who keep saying "cherry-picking!" have at least one thread where they can STFU.

You know I'm not gonna. I'm just going to say, again, that randomness includes streakiness. Randomness is not even-ness. You are *more* likely to see occasional streaks like this than not, in a large sample. I can say it a dozen more ways, if you want.

Polares

carrion pigeons wrote:

simonsez wrote:

El Satanno wrote:

Iceman (purple x4)

I'm glad you do this every season, so the people who keep saying "cherry-picking!" have at least one thread where they can STFU.

You know I'm not gonna. I'm just going to say, again, that randomness includes streakiness. Randomness is not even-ness. You are *more* likely to see occasional streaks like this than not, in a large sample. I can say it a dozen more ways, if you want.

Ok, fair enough, but then WHY devs don't say how are they generating the random numbers? Maybe I missed that article, but when there is so much money (and time) depending on this, it would be nice to know that the RNG is really working correctly (I would really love to see the code, or the algorithm that they are using. Then I would be more receptive to think that this is just a normal streak).

In my case, in the last 10 LT pulls I have pulled 4 4hors, which it can be just a streak, but when I look at my pulls I see some very weird streaks and groups of pulls. THAT can be confirmation bias, I don't say they are cheating, but as I said the only way to know if this is just confirmation bias or what is to know how these numbers are generated, and certify that the method they are using is good enough for generating random numbers.

PS: As I always say in these threads. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS RANDOMNESS IN COMPUTER SCIENCE, just the appearance of it, so don't ever assume that these numbers are really random.

simonsez

carrion pigeons wrote:

You know I'm not gonna. I'm just going to say, again, that randomness includes streakiness.

You clearly don't understand probability. Every month the OP posts his pulls, and every month he shows clumping that is statistically improbable (given the purported odds). To say that one is "more likely" than not to see streaks like this than not, is just plain ignorant. I can say that a dozen more ways too if you want.

Note to mods: This is not an ad hominen attack. I'm attacking his egregious misunderstanding of statistics and probability.

simonsez

Polares wrote:

In my case, in the last 10 LT pulls I have pulled 4 4hors

Regardless of those who claim such streaks are to be expected, it is an incontrovertible fact that the probability of getting 4 or more of the same character in 10 pulls (unless we're being lied to about the true odds) is less than 1%. Personally, if I'm about to pull 10 tokens, the last thing I'd expect is something that has less than a 1% chance of happening.

rawfsu

Not as detailed, but I was inspired to hoard this season, but only kept up with my standards, heroics, and LT's. I just realized I failed to track my 10-pack separately from my other heroics, but oh well. I also did not record the specific covers, but rather the total of 2*, 3*, 4*, and 5* pulls. Here goes nothing...

100 Standards
-5 were 3*'s
-10 were 2*'s

30 Heroics (1 10-pack, 20 earned)
-4 were 4*'s
-7 were 3*'s

4 Legendaries (2 from Champions, 1 from vault, 1 current from CP)
-All were 4*'s

Hope this will help in the data calculations!

CT1888

simonsez wrote:

Polares wrote:

In my case, in the last 10 LT pulls I have pulled 4 4hors

Regardless of those who claim such streaks are to be expected, it is an incontrovertible fact that the probability of getting 4 or more of the same character in 10 pulls (unless we're being lied to about the true odds) is less than 1%. Personally, if I'm about to pull 10 tokens, the last thing I'd expect is something that has less than a 1% chance of happening.

Surely whatever sequence of 4 covers that come out has a <1% probability of occurring, so every time you are getting one of those events. They just stand out when it's the same character.

simonsez

CT1888 wrote:

Surely whatever sequence of 4 covers that come out has a <1% probability of occurring, so every time you are getting one of those events. They just stand out when it's the same character.

I'm not looking at the probability of ANY sequence of covers, I'm specifically looking at the duplication of covers/characters within a set of pulls, which pretty much happens at odds-defying regularity nearly every **** time. That's why it stands out. Because it happens nearly every **** time. I hope that's clear enough for you.

dswan3rd

Congrats on the OML pulls - glad to know I'm not the only one with a healthy disdain...to the point of throwing away his covers even though I have plenty of HP for roster spots...for Cho.

snlf25

I needed to make room because I pulled my first spidergwen yesterday and I had to think long and hard which to toss between dude brolk and my 4 cover tiny cap. Long and hard.

Kevin61

I have 4 LTs and after I get the 25 CP today for Juggernaut PVE, that will put me over 300. As soon as I see Quake and Punisher Max on the list, I will open them all.

So, I got up this morning and the new season started so I made sure that Quake and Punisher Max were on the list and commenced opening. It was Purple day for me today (no, not purple tokens ) Ended up with 312 CP and 5 LTs (the last one from DDQ Clash of the Titans) and here are the results:

(sold)
x4 (TIMES 4 FOR TINYKITTY'S SAKE ) (1 sold - I already had 2)


(highly needed!!)

(needed) (sold)

(sold)
(sold)





and last, but certainly not least, one solitary


So, at 5% draw rate for 5 characters, I'd say that is about right. Not the excitement from opening tokens that I was hoping for but should have known that when the first token I got was Baglady! Overall, 15 usable tokens out of 20 (14 if you don't count Mr. Fantastic blue!!)

El Satanno

Kevin61 wrote:

I have 4 LTs and after I get the 25 CP today for Juggernaut PVE, that will put me over 300. As soon as I see Quake and Punisher Max on the list, I will open them all.

Please do! And post the results for all of us!

carrion_pigeons

simonsez wrote:

I'm specifically looking at the duplication of covers/characters within a set of pulls, which pretty much happens at odds-defying regularity nearly every tinykitty time.

This term, odds-defying. My understanding of your intent in using it is that, since opening 4 of any given cover is unlikely, that opening 4 of *some* cover is unlikely. This is your claim, yes?

Okay, I'm going to lay out my understanding of statistics on this topic for you in pretty decent detail.

In 34 pulls, the odds of opening 4 of the same 4* cover, with 27 4* characters with 3 abilities each, at a 90% chance to pull a 4* from a legendary token, in a truly random sample, can be calculated as follows:

(1/27*1/3*.9)^4*(1-(1/27*1/3*.9))^30*34!/30!/4!*28*3=.040948

Or about 1 in 25. Odds-defying? Sure. But not extremely so. That doesn't even account for the *extra* possibility of pulling 5 or more, which ups the odds to about one in 22.

Now, I can't seem to find the thread for Season XXI, but I did go back and look at the others. Turns out, counting up the number of times the OP got 4 of the same color of a 4*? Once, in 5 attempts. This was his first time. Odds of that happening (assuming each season was the same size because I'm lazy): 5*(.040948)(1-.040948)^4=.1732, or better than 1 in 6.

Something that *did* happen in the earlier threads was that he picked up 4 or more covers of the same hero. But guess what? That isn't statistically unlikely at all? It turns out (like I've been telling you) that if you drop the 1/3 factor out of the calculation above, you get odds that above 50%. You are about 55% to see four of the same character out of 34 pulls, and another 11% to see five.

I am not an expert at statistics. I have a passing understanding of hypergeometric probabilities from a college class I took years ago. But this is not hard math, and if it defies intuition, it's still fairly easy to check the actual odds against one's intuition.

The OP got lucky, but if we're calling 1 in 6 odds evidence of some gigantic failure of the game's random number generator, then I don't think we're being very reasonable.

amusingfoo1

I don't have a per-season tracking, but I have aggregate numbers (not perfect, as I didn't separate heroics vs events vs cover packs). But they go back to August.

Standards: 2283, pulled 308 2* (13.5%), 65 3* (2.8%).
Heroics and events: 2176, pulled 490 3* (22.5%), 101 4* (4.6%)
Legendaries: 338, pulling 31 5*s (9.2%)

This last season is pretty close to that, on legendaries. Pulled 6/66 (9.1%). A little shine lost, though, because three of the 5*s were OML black, of which I already had three.

CT1888

carrion pigeons wrote:

simonsez wrote:

I'm specifically looking at the duplication of covers/characters within a set of pulls, which pretty much happens at odds-defying regularity nearly every tinykitty time.

This term, odds-defying. My understanding of your intent in using it is that, since opening 4 of any given cover is unlikely, that opening 4 of *some* cover is unlikely. This is your claim, yes?

Okay, I'm going to lay out my understanding of statistics on this topic for you in pretty decent detail.

In 34 pulls, the odds of opening 4 of the same 4* cover, with 27 4* characters with 3 abilities each, at a 90% chance to pull a 4* from a legendary token, in a truly random sample, can be calculated as follows:

(1/27*1/3*.9)^4*(1-(1/27*1/3*.9))^30*34!/30!/4!*28*3=.040948

Or about 1 in 25. Odds-defying? Sure. But not extremely so. That doesn't even account for the *extra* possibility of pulling 5 or more, which ups the odds to about one in 22.

Now, I can't seem to find the thread for Season XXI, but I did go back and look at the others. Turns out, counting up the number of times the OP got 4 of the same color of a 4*? Once, in 5 attempts. This was his first time. Odds of that happening (assuming each season was the same size because I'm lazy): 5*(.040948)(1-.040948)^4=.1732, or better than 1 in 6.

Something that *did* happen in the earlier threads was that he picked up 4 or more covers of the same hero. But guess what? That isn't statistically unlikely at all? It turns out (like I've been telling you) that if you drop the 1/3 factor out of the calculation above, you get odds that above 50%. You are about 55% to see four of the same character out of 34 pulls, and another 11% to see five.

I am not an expert at statistics. I have a passing understanding of hypergeometric probabilities from a college class I took years ago. But this is not hard math, and if it defies intuition, it's still fairly easy to check the actual odds against one's intuition.

The OP got lucky, but if we're calling 1 in 6 odds evidence of some gigantic failure of the game's random number generator, then I don't think we're being very reasonable.

Sorry Simonsez, it's not clear. This logic I follow, yours, not so much.
Carrier pigeons articulates it better than I can, but to me, these clumps are random pulls that over time, as the data set gets bigger, will seem far less relevant. This set, op pulled 4 Iceman covers from 34 pulls. Assuming 10% go to 5*, and 24 characters, with even spread you'd expect to see 1.275 covers.
Take that out to the last 4 seasons, where he got 8 Iceman covers from 143; using the same numbers as above, you'd expect 5.36 covers of any character on an even spread.
Over 10 seasons, this clump of 4 will in all likelihood dissappear into the data.
Given the sample sizes we are looking at here, I can't see the as broken as, I have inferred, you do. Please illuminate me.

Kevin61

El Satanno wrote:

Kevin61 wrote:

I have 4 LTs and after I get the 25 CP today for Juggernaut PVE, that will put me over 300. As soon as I see Quake and Punisher Max on the list, I will open them all.

Please do! And post the results for all of us!

Edited my original post with the results!

Daiches

I will add my pulls of the season as well

Season XXV LT pulls
20CP
SpiderGwen Purple - use
X23 Purple - sell
DPX Black - use (champ)
Ice Purple - use (champed, days after opening)
Antman Yellow - sell
Carnage Red - sell
Thing green - sell
PX Blue - dupe
Chulk Blue - use (maxed, ugh..)
Nova Red - use
X23 purple - sell
Ice Purple - use (champ)
Carnage Red - sell
Antman Purple - sell
Carnage Green - sell
Phx Green - use, 20th LT back to back 5s
Venom Yellow - use
Silver Surfer Black - use, 22nd LT
SpiderGwen Yellow - use
Reed Yellow - sell
Cyke Blue - use (champ)
Reed Black - sell
Cyke Yellow - use (champ)
Nova Black -use
Thing Green - sell
DPX Red - use (champ)
Ice Blue - use (champ)
Cho Black - sell
GR black - sell
PX Blue - use (dupe)
Nova Yellow - use
Fury Blue - sell
X23 Purple - sell
Reed Yellow - sell (0/10 during buy club)
GR Green - sell
Surfer Red - use (43rd)
Thing Yellow - sell
Elektra Black - sell



25CP (aka New)
XForceW Green (DDQ 4) - sell
SpiderGwen Red (Ice champ LT) - use
Elektra Purple (DDQ4) - sell
XFW green (vault LT) - sell
Sp5dey Puprle (DDQ4) - finally on 19th LT!!
StarLord Yellow (XDP champ) - sell
PX yellow (DDQ4) - use (dupe)
X23 purple (DDQ4) - sell
GR Green (Season) - sell

Final tally: 4/46. One useable 5star on 46

Off season:
20CP
JG green - use (champ)
Rulk Red - use
Flaptain Blue -sell
X23 Red - sell
Flaptain Red - sell

LT
Ant Yellow - sell (DDQ4)

4/52 counting off-seaon