El Satanno wrote: Iceman (purple x4)
simonsez wrote: El Satanno wrote: Iceman (purple x4) I'm glad you do this every season, so the people who keep saying "cherry-picking!" have at least one thread where they can STFU.
carrion pigeons wrote: simonsez wrote: El Satanno wrote: Iceman (purple x4) I'm glad you do this every season, so the people who keep saying "cherry-picking!" have at least one thread where they can STFU. You know I'm not gonna. I'm just going to say, again, that randomness includes streakiness. Randomness is not even-ness. You are *more* likely to see occasional streaks like this than not, in a large sample. I can say it a dozen more ways, if you want.
carrion pigeons wrote: You know I'm not gonna. I'm just going to say, again, that randomness includes streakiness.
Polares wrote: In my case, in the last 10 LT pulls I have pulled 4 4hors
simonsez wrote: Polares wrote: In my case, in the last 10 LT pulls I have pulled 4 4hors Regardless of those who claim such streaks are to be expected, it is an incontrovertible fact that the probability of getting 4 or more of the same character in 10 pulls (unless we're being lied to about the true odds) is less than 1%. Personally, if I'm about to pull 10 tokens, the last thing I'd expect is something that has less than a 1% chance of happening.
CT1888 wrote: Surely whatever sequence of 4 covers that come out has a <1% probability of occurring, so every time you are getting one of those events. They just stand out when it's the same character.
Kevin61 wrote: I have 4 LTs and after I get the 25 CP today for Juggernaut PVE, that will put me over 300. As soon as I see Quake and Punisher Max on the list, I will open them all.
simonsez wrote: I'm specifically looking at the duplication of covers/characters within a set of pulls, which pretty much happens at odds-defying regularity nearly every tinykitty time.
carrion pigeons wrote: simonsez wrote: I'm specifically looking at the duplication of covers/characters within a set of pulls, which pretty much happens at odds-defying regularity nearly every tinykitty time. This term, odds-defying. My understanding of your intent in using it is that, since opening 4 of any given cover is unlikely, that opening 4 of *some* cover is unlikely. This is your claim, yes? Okay, I'm going to lay out my understanding of statistics on this topic for you in pretty decent detail. In 34 pulls, the odds of opening 4 of the same 4* cover, with 27 4* characters with 3 abilities each, at a 90% chance to pull a 4* from a legendary token, in a truly random sample, can be calculated as follows: (1/27*1/3*.9)^4*(1-(1/27*1/3*.9))^30*34!/30!/4!*28*3=.040948 Or about 1 in 25. Odds-defying? Sure. But not extremely so. That doesn't even account for the *extra* possibility of pulling 5 or more, which ups the odds to about one in 22. Now, I can't seem to find the thread for Season XXI, but I did go back and look at the others. Turns out, counting up the number of times the OP got 4 of the same color of a 4*? Once, in 5 attempts. This was his first time. Odds of that happening (assuming each season was the same size because I'm lazy): 5*(.040948)(1-.040948)^4=.1732, or better than 1 in 6. Something that *did* happen in the earlier threads was that he picked up 4 or more covers of the same hero. But guess what? That isn't statistically unlikely at all? It turns out (like I've been telling you) that if you drop the 1/3 factor out of the calculation above, you get odds that above 50%. You are about 55% to see four of the same character out of 34 pulls, and another 11% to see five. I am not an expert at statistics. I have a passing understanding of hypergeometric probabilities from a college class I took years ago. But this is not hard math, and if it defies intuition, it's still fairly easy to check the actual odds against one's intuition. The OP got lucky, but if we're calling 1 in 6 odds evidence of some gigantic failure of the game's random number generator, then I don't think we're being very reasonable.
El Satanno wrote: Kevin61 wrote: I have 4 LTs and after I get the 25 CP today for Juggernaut PVE, that will put me over 300. As soon as I see Quake and Punisher Max on the list, I will open them all. Please do! And post the results for all of us!