Fatpack and 3Pack percentages and ratios

loroku

2 more boosters for you (with terrible luck):

3 unc
2 com

3 com
2 unc

Keegan

I'm not convinced we've figured it out based on random sampling. If you look at Marvel PQ's percentage, odds only change by a tenth of a percent when you buy bigger packs, and even that doesn't change among the higher packs. When it says your chances are greater with a bigger pack, it's primarily because you're getting more cards and thus more chances. Your odds of getting a better card due to it being a Fat Pack or Big Box over a normal booster is likely to only be marginally better. What are likely to get is more uncommons over commons for certain, so that's pretty cool.

Part of the MPQ chart attached, I'm sure it's not far off.

The_Leftist

Based off of over 500 3 packs, 3 mythics were drawn. That's 1,500 cards. Based off of 23 Fat packs, 12 or 13 were drawn. That's 460 cards with 4 times the mythics. I assure you the percentage differences between packs have a much higher change than MPQ. Also, we don't have the option of buying cards outright as you do for covers in mpq. In mpq, once you have that cover, you can simply buy duplicates of the ones you have. You can't do that in this game.

Keegan

The_Leftist wrote:

Based off of over 500 3 packs, 3 mythics were drawn. That's 1,500 cards. Based off of 23 Fat packs, 12 or 13 were drawn. That's 460 cards with 4 times the mythics. I assure you the percentage differences between packs have a much higher change than MPQ. Also, we don't have the option of buying cards outright as you do for covers in mpq. In mpq, once you have that cover, you can simply buy duplicates of the ones you have. You can't do that in this game.

Gotcha. Thanks for the work on this.

Irgy

The values in your opening post are 4 mythics from 529 3-packs (0.25% ~= 4/(3x529)), and 15 mythics from 23 fat packs (3.26% ~= 15/(4x5x23)), but above you said "3" and "12 or 13" respectively. Which one is correct? I'm guessing the recent post was quoting from memory and I should trust the opening post but I just wanted to check.

The_Leftist

I just made a quick assumption. Didn't want to take the time to check. Figured I was within 1 or 2 from the numbers. Just stating that the chances vary greatly from 3 packs to fat packs and not because you are getting more cards. Mpq chances were terrible, especially for people willing to spend money on their 40 packs. This game is more forgiving, and it's apparent.

Sorry for not being accurate.

Irgy

Sorry, wasn't trying to attack your credibility just wanted to use the right numbers in a calculation. Going by the values from the opening post then, we can assert that the mythic drop rates are different between the two sorts of packs at a confidence level of p~=1.32x10^-7 << 0.01

That is to say there's a less than 0.0000132% chance of getting numbers as different as those if the underlying drop rates were the same. Assuming I haven't messed up my own calculation anyway!


On another note, I wonder if the drop rates for the fat packs are different to the single 5-packs or to the big box of 14 5-packs? I'm hoping not, it seems an unnecessary complication, they all cost crystals and you already get bulk purchase savings in the price.

The_Leftist

I'm currently gathering data on single packs, but want to have at least 50 packs before posting percentages as they have a pretty low mythic chance (1 of 17 so far) which is considerably lower than fat packs. Just want to get a better view instead of stating "1 in 17" to make up for any bad luck we may have encountered. As for big boxes, I've only gotten data on one, and it was absolutely terrible. Something like 8 rares and 0 mythics, which can't be right, as buying 3 fat packs should get you more than that, and that's without the 2 extra packs from the box. I imagine the boxes are pretty close to fat packs draw rates, boosters are (sadly) about halfway in between 3 packs and fat packs.

One thing I haven't taken into account it if there is any difference between fat packs and boosters bought/won/rewarded through daily rewards/compensated.

However, when doing a quick reference to the 12 or so fat packs I had before this post to the fat pack info I got from friends on fat pack compensation day, they seemed to follow the same suit. But that's not to say luck couldn't have played a part in that, considering I've gotten 3 rares and a mythic in 10 3 packs, which is extremely lucky compared to averages.

Unknown

I bought a fat pack:

9 commons
8 uncommons
3 rares

Keegan

Three fat packs (60 cards):

1 Mythic
12 Rare
25 Uncommon
22 Common

Ten 3-card boosters:

1 Rare
13 Uncommon
16 Common

Unknown

After 2 Big Boxes plus some 5 card packs thru daylies (a total of something aboute 40 - 5 packs), I got:

26 total Rares
16 diferent rares
0 Mithics

My second big box I bought today, and got only 3 new rares, and only for the colors that I don't play (green and white). This sound a big bad luck... an I right?

Became so frustrated, I thinking of quit the game...

raidan

I opened 2 sets of 100 3-pack boosters. Here are the results:

First 100 3-pack:
242 common
53 uncommon
5 rares

Second 100 3-pack:
243 common
49 uncommon
7 rares
1 mythic

Incredibly the 3 pack I pulled the mythic had a rare in it as well.

loroku

SidoS wrote:

After 2 Big Boxes plus some 5 card packs thru daylies (a total of something aboute 40 - 5 packs), I got:

Can you break those down and give the numbers for the 2 big boxes and then the numbers for the 5 packs separately? That will help a ton in getting the odds for both.

For what it's worth, that's 4 total big boxes we've had listed by the community with zero mythics between them. Either we're really pulling some outliers here (likely) or maybe the odds are messed up? They're supposed to be better than fat packs.

Also, another 5-pack from me (daily reward):
2 commons
3 uncommons

The_Leftist

Could be a mix of bad luck and/or the fact that out of a community of over 200 people, only a small number chipped in for fat pack stats. Could very well be that a high percentage only did so to brag about how many mythics or rares they got, and that most the players who didn't get much didn't post because they were frustrated or didn't care.

Another theory is that they have accidently switched the fat pack and box draw rates, which considering the high amount of bugs the game was released with, could be a high possibility.

Meto5000

FP
P1: 1C, 4U
P2: 4U, 1R
P3: 4U, 1R
P4: 1C, 3U, 1R
Total: 2C, 15U, 3R, 0M

The_Leftist

Since they are scraping buyable 3 packs, and this post gives a small look at what's what, I'm wondering if perhaps they will adjust the rarity ratios for packs with this update, so I'm going to begin a new hunt for pack info post update, and compare it to these.

I find it slightly odd that not a single developer has posted anything regarding this post. Not a "good job for figuring them out", nothing regarding how close these percentages might be, no mention of wether ratio changes might be coming soon as these ratios lean towards telling people they aren't likely to get their money's worth, nothing. In fact, I've had little to no luck drawing a developer response from anything.


Perhaps I'm just not a likable person (grabs razor blade, bottle of wine, plays My Chemical Romance, and fills bathtub)

Anyways, I'll be collecting data on a new thread after the update. Any help will be appreciated.

Keegan

The_Leftist wrote:

Could be a mix of bad luck and/or the fact that out of a community of over 200 people, only a small number chipped in for fat pack stats. Could very well be that a high percentage only did so to brag about how many mythics or rares they got, and that most the players who didn't get much didn't post because they were frustrated or didn't care.

I know that in my case I didn't find my way here until after I'd done the noob thing and chased as many FPs and BBs as I could and didn't keep track. Now getting a fat pack requires more work and are slower in coming.

Another theory is that they have accidently switched the fat pack and box draw rates, which considering the high amount of bugs the game was released with, could be a high possibility.

I think this is highly possible - I've been on highly improbable draws since 1.3 for fat packs, particularly ones for placing.

Tangent: something I was thinking was that this doesn't (and can't, really) cover the chance of duplicates. I got a fat pack from Prized Possessions that grossed a whopping eight rares, however all but one was a duplicate. At some point in the odds curve you're just fighting to get cards you don't have and yet still desire, and scarcity be damned.

Unknown

The_Leftist wrote:

Since they are scraping buyable 3 packs, and this post gives a small look at what's what, I'm wondering if perhaps they will adjust the rarity ratios for packs with this update, so I'm going to begin a new hunt for pack info post update, and compare it to these.

I find it slightly odd that not a single developer has posted anything regarding this post. Not a "good job for figuring them out", nothing regarding how close these percentages might be, no mention of wether ratio changes might be coming soon as these ratios lean towards telling people they aren't likely to get their money's worth, nothing. In fact, I've had little to no luck drawing a developer response from anything.


Perhaps I'm just not a likable person (grabs razor blade, bottle of wine, plays My Chemical Romance, and fills bathtub)

Anyways, I'll be collecting data on a new thread after the update. Any help will be appreciated.

I guess they just don't want us to know what the chances are. Because of that, I don't think that this kind of threads will ever get sticky. With only one of them it will get bumped more.

I understand why you want to start a new thread but they can change the percentages at any time without letting us know. Also I don't really care what the percentages with the free 3 packs will since I will get 3 almost every day no matter what the chances are.

I think we will see when chances for the other packs change even if we just use only this thread.

The_Leftist

I won't keep track on 3 packs, as they are likely to offer as little as they have been anyways, and there is no way off obtaining a lot aside from logging in every 8 hours. I'll let people decide on their own wether or not it's worth consistent logging for the cards.

And they can change the draw rates at any time, but if someone is willing to keep track of current statistics, then they are more likely to keep those rates higher to avoid players being discouraged to spend money for packs.

They could actually take advantage of a new thread if they are too lazy to post draw rates in-game. By allowing me to figure draw rates, if they keep draw rates for boosters low, fat packs at a decent rate, and boxes at incredible rates, people will read it, and realize that dropping a few more $$$ for boxes or fat packs instead of a little bit for boosters would be well worth the effort and they would recieve a lot more than they think.

It baffles me that there are still players out there who think the draw rates for boosters are about the same as fat packs and boxes.

And being as how the only moderator retort I've recieved was David Hi-Fi issuing me a Cease and Desist for (somewhat negatively) poking fun at the lack of communication this game had in the beginning, I doubt the thread would ever be sticky, but with enough statistical feedback, it would remain a top post anyways. Just have to rely on players giving me consistent feedback instead of just posting good draws to receive accurate results

Meto5000

FP
P1: 2C, 2U
P2: 1C, 4U
P3: 3C, 1U, 1R
P4: 1C, 1U, 1R
Total: 7C, 9U, 4R, 0M