Fatpack and 3Pack percentages and ratios

The_Leftist

I've been collecting data for Fatpacks and 3 packs and here is the information I've gathered


For Fat Packs:

Out of 23 Fat Packs, here are the percent chances to draw rarities

Common - 33.69% chance per card, 1:3 ratio
Uncommon - 47.82% chance per card, 1:2.09 ratio
Rare - 15.21% chance per card, 1:6.5 ratio
Mythic - 3.26% chance per card, 1:30.6 ratio

Average Fatpack

Commons: 6.73
Uncommons: 9.56
Rares: 3.04
Mythics: 0.65

Now for 3 packs (bought with runes)

Out of 529 packs, here are the percentages to draw each rarity

Common: 82.04% chance per card
Uncommon: 15.75% chance per card, 1:6.35 ratio
Rare: 1.95% chance per card, about 1:50 ratio
Mythic: 0.25% chance per card, about 1:400

Average 3 pack

Commons: 2.46
Uncommons: 0.47
Rares: 0.05
Mythics: 0.0075

Since these numbers are so low, here are how many packs you would have to buy in order to get one (on average)

Uncommon: 2 packs
Rare: 16.6 packs
Mythic: 133.3 packs

Shout out to everyone who provided information to make these statistics more accurate

NOW FOR SOME STATISTICAL FUN!!!!

There is a 55.21% chance your 3 pack has all Commons

There is a 0.57% chance your 3 pack will not have any Commons

1 out of every 153 3 packs will have 3 Uncommons

1 out of every 125,000 3 packs will have 3 Rares

1 out of every 64,000,000 3 packs will have 3 Mythics

loroku

That's awesome! Hopefully we can put together some info on single boosters as well; at least according to the description, they should have slightly worse odds than the Fat Pack.

The_Leftist

I'll have everyone on the MTGPQ FB community give me their statistics and I will get them together for you

The_Leftist

Anyone interested in helping can post pack pull results here. If you are going to post 3 packs, please do so at larger amounts like 15 or more at a time.

I'll factor everything in after getting more information

loroku

Just got my booster for 4th day log in:
1 rare
3 uncommon
1 common

The_Leftist

Thaks! I've already gathered about a dozen packs worth of stats. In 5 days when we get another one, I should have a reasonable idea of percentages. So far it seems like the average pack is 2 C, 2 U, 1 R. Mythics seem to come in about 1 in 5 packs.

Unknown

The_Leftist wrote:

Thaks! I've already gathered about a dozen packs worth of stats. In 5 days when we get another one, I should have a reasonable idea of percentages. So far it seems like the average pack is 2 C, 2 U, 1 R. Mythics seem to come in about 1 in 5 packs.

I wish mythics came that often. They don't.

The_Leftist

You're right. I was looking at the wrong thing. In a dozen single packs, no one has gotten a single mythic

Unknown

Thx for this. I like this kind of information. I can't wait to see the difference between the 200 and the 600 crystals pack.

The_Leftist

I'm stockpiling all gold I get until I see the prices of future walkers, but if anyone in here wants to contribute big box stats, I would gladly do the same for them!

Unknown

Since I started playing in mid December I've purchased something on the order of 150 of the 225 rune basic packs. I have gotten 1 mythic and around a dozen rares.

Keegan

I got a Demonic Pact Mythic in a three-card booster today. I was shocked.

Unknown

Opened 15 3 packs just for fun.
36 commons
7 uncommons
2 rares

Unknown

Keegan wrote:

I got a Demonic Pact Mythic in a three-card booster today. I was shocked.

Excellent pull! Mine was Thopter Spy Network, which I had been wanting for a long time. Unfortunately, I don't play it in my Jace deck because it's so expensive; I run a tight budget deck because I contantly play Day's Undoing and don't want to wait on casting it until I cast TSN.

Keegan

...and I just got a Molten Vortex in a three-card booster

I've been on a statistically unlikely roll the past 24 hours - two mythics from two different 3 card boosters and 11 rares in one big box.

This is highly unusual, though. I've only gotten two other mythics from different fat packs over the past six weeks, and I've had several big boxes with only a couple rares and no mythics (I'm still without a mythic from a big box), and of the 40 or so three-card boosters I've gotten these two have been the most successful by far; I think I only have a couple rares out of all the other small boosters.

Unknown

So far I've actually gotten three mythics out of standard 3-packs, but I've been playing since before official release, have opened at least a thousand 3-packs, and here's the punchline... two of them have been Skaab Goliath -_-*

The_Leftist

Haha yeah that's the thing about RNG. Some people get lucky, some get screwed.

And as for Scaab Goliath, if you had played MPQ for the first year, you would know that the only 4* character in the game, X force, was the biggest joke of the game. When they finally decided to give him an adjustment, he became a huge bad **** for quite some time until people started complaint about how he was too overly powered.

Perhaps in the future, this will happen to Scaab Goliath

Unknown

Bought 15 3 packs again.

35 commons
9 uncommons
1 rare

The_Leftist

I'm pretty sure the 3 pack percentages are about as close to accurate as they are gonna get. I could use a few more fat packs for stats, and as many single packs as possible.

I'm just curious as to wether or not the daily/comp fat packs and singles have different draw rates than those that are bought

Unknown

Little off topic I know but. When are they going to implement something for the overwhelming number of
duplicate cards I have.

The_Leftist

"Soon"