Galactus token drop rate

Sandwichboy
Sandwichboy Posts: 193 Tile Toppler
edited February 2016 in MPQ General Discussion
So, considering that they cost twice as much as heroic tokens, with the only real bonus being the 0.7% drop rate for Nova, these tokens are reminding me of the anniversary ones before they were updated to be worthwhile. Over 20 so far and the only thing I've pulled above a 2* was IM40. Super useful. Obviously it's too late for this event, but for the big alliance themed events like Galactus and Ultron it feels kind of silly that even though you're getting tokens thrown at you like crazy, all they end up being is 250 ISO.
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Comments

  • Arondite
    Arondite Posts: 1,188 Chairperson of the Boards
    First one I opened was IceMan Blue. I'm cool.
  • Monged4life
    Monged4life Posts: 420
    I've had roughly two 3*s for every one 2* out of the Galactus tokens. I had to check the drop rates to make sure they weren't different. No complaints here.
  • gigatilburg29
    gigatilburg29 Posts: 88 Match Maker
    Just the drop rates in general is outdated, getting so many 2* is ridiculous, we should be getting more 3* now after championing them and needing 100 extra covers to max then. It just shows every new feature in this game is one sided and it's not looked what change is necessary to really implement a full change to players can benefit the new gameplay.
  • bobbyfish
    bobbyfish Posts: 299
    2 3*s out of the 15-20 I opened, and I swear since championing my 7 2* characters all I get are the dark avengers or Thor/Torch that I don't have/want

    Not a successful haul this week!
  • Lemminkäinen
    Lemminkäinen Posts: 378 Mover and Shaker
    I got Ghost Rider from the first and Nova from the last. The dozen in between those were unremarkable but the beginning and the end made up for it icon_e_biggrin.gif
  • Xenoberyll
    Xenoberyll Posts: 647 Critical Contributor
    Lemminkäinen wrote:
    I got Ghost Rider from the first and Nova from the last. The dozen in between those were unremarkable but the beginning and the end made up for it icon_e_biggrin.gif

    Well, mine were the same except i didn't have your start and your finish...all 2stars except 2 (i think) 3stars.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm done with the event, and got all 2*s except one (Fist). So count me among those who think the odds table posted in-game is completely bogus.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    I'm done with the event, and got all 2*s except one (Fist). So count me among those who think the odds table posted in-game is completely bogus.
    Count me among those who have a basic understanding of probabilities and statistics.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Quebbster wrote:
    simonsez wrote:
    I'm done with the event, and got all 2*s except one (Fist). So count me among those who think the odds table posted in-game is completely bogus.
    Count me among those who have a basic understanding of probabilities and statistics.
    Ok wiseass, tell me the odds of getting 14 out of 15 2*s, if the probability of 2*s is 55%? Or perhaps your understanding is a little TOO basic.
  • Jarvind
    Jarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    Quebbster wrote:
    simonsez wrote:
    I'm done with the event, and got all 2*s except one (Fist). So count me among those who think the odds table posted in-game is completely bogus.
    Count me among those who have a basic understanding of probabilities and statistics.
    Ok wiseass, tell me the odds of getting 14 out of 15 2*s, if the probability of 2*s is 55%? Or perhaps your understanding is a little TOO basic.

    I opened 7 tokens (missed the first few rounds) and I got a 4* and four 3*'s.

    Also, it's 55% per draw, not "55% of any given batch of tokens will be 2*'s." Which is pretty basic.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    Jarvind wrote:
    Also, it's 55% per draw, not "55% of any given batch of tokens will be 2*'s." Which is pretty basic.
    This. Admittedly, the odds of only getting a long streak of only two-stars is very low, but it does happen and does not disprove the odds table in anyway.
    Heck, last season ten-pack I opened had eight gold covers (7 threestars, one fourstar), but I'm not crying foul for that even though the chance of that happening is also miniscule. Sometimes you are very lucky, sometimes you are very unlucky.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited February 2016
    Jarvind wrote:
    Also, it's 55% per draw, not "55% of any given batch of tokens will be 2*'s." Which is pretty basic.
    I know it's 55% per draw. I already said that. And I said GIVEN a 55% draw rate, what's the probability of getting 14 out of 15 2*s. Reading is pretty basic too, yet for some reason I'm having to repeat what I said 2 posts ago.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Quebbster wrote:
    This. Admittedly, the odds of only getting a long streak of only two-stars is very low, but it does happen and does not disprove the odds table in anyway.
    Statistics and probability is not proving or disproving anything. It's about coming up with the most likely point of view given the data one is presented with. And if I'm presented with data that require me to believe a 1 in a 1000 event took place, the rational decision is to disbelieve the original set of assumptions.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    Quebbster wrote:
    This. Admittedly, the odds of only getting a long streak of only two-stars is very low, but it does happen and does not disprove the odds table in anyway.
    Statistics and probability is not proving or disproving anything. It's about coming up with the most likely point of view given the data one is presented with. And if I'm presented with data that require me to believe a 1 in a 1000 event took place, the rational decision is to disbelieve the original set of assumptions.
    In the last month I have done a lot of coin flips in another game. Once I managed to flip 9 heads in a row - the odds of that happening is 1 in 500 I believe. Then later I managed to do 10 heads in a row - that's a 1 in a 1000 chance. Are you saying I should assume the coin flip function in that game is bugged? I have had plenty of flips that didn't turn out nearly that well too...
  • Calnexin
    Calnexin Posts: 1,078 Chairperson of the Boards
    Guildenstern sends his condolences.

    While I personally intend to acquire the LT tonight, my alliance won't go much past rnd 5. Of the tokens I've earned - 1 3* IF, and a bunch of 2*. So I'm in the same boat. But others are saying they're getting 2/3 3*. That's the balance. It's a global rate, and I'm sure if D3 were to release the statistics across every player and platform, they'd match up.

    It sucks to draw the short straw, but that's essentially what's happening to some people. Whether there's a scaling effect on the percentage - that might be an appropriate question to ask. Are the higher-ranked players getting a modified percentage table to allow the lower-ranked players to catch up? I'm guessing not. There's acclaimed disparity on the board, but it's not a representative sample. You're only going to hear from the players who either got totally screwed or who made out like a bandit. The average isn't likely to weigh in.
  • chaos01
    chaos01 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
    Drop rates in general are terrible. I am on an 0/34 rate right now and have recovered more 3 stars from standard tokens in the last week.
  • gigatilburg29
    gigatilburg29 Posts: 88 Match Maker
    Forget statistics or probability, the chance to pull 3* should be increased. thats the main problem.
  • wymtime
    wymtime Posts: 3,758 Chairperson of the Boards
    I opened 4 on the first day and the next morning my rewards were gone from my list. 2 of my Nova covers were gone as well. I submitted a CS ticket and got a response yesterday saying the issue had been resolved but I am still missing my rewards. So I really am not concerned about the drop rate right now
  • energomash
    energomash Posts: 23 Just Dropped In
    i've gotten three 3* and two 4*. no complaints from me.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Quebbster wrote:
    In the last month I have done a lot of coin flips in another game. Once I managed to flip 9 heads in a row - the odds of that happening is 1 in 500 I believe. Then later I managed to do 10 heads in a row - that's a 1 in a 1000 chance. Are you saying I should assume the coin flip function in that game is bugged?
    No. You said you've done a lot in the past month. If you only flipped the coin 10 times once, and got all heads, then yes, I'd say it was most likely bugged.

    I didn't spend a month drawing Galactus tokens. I only pulled 15 once. And based on that 15, it was logical and rational to assume that my pulls weren't subject to the odds table that was posted.

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