The long-term 5* transition dilemma (TL;DR it's impossible)

PeterGibbons316

With the release of 5* Spidey and Latest/Classic Legendary Tokens I'm foreseeing an issue in the long-term with the 5* transition. My fear is that it will be next to impossible to ever get a usable 5* roster for the F2P player. I started hoarding LTs when spidey was released and have earned 10 thus far. I can't remember where they all came from, or when he was released, but I'm going to assume that a veteran player such as myself can earn LTs at a rate of about 5/week. That's 1 for DDQ4, 1-2 for PvE, and 2-3 for PvP. A few more will come from season score, championing, the occasional DDQ vault pull, CP purchases, etc. But for the purposes of this discussion I'm going to assume 260 LTs/year (all latest).

Now, my dilemma. I started hoarding LTs becuase I currently have 4 maxed 4* characters, but 4 more that are cover maxed that I was to level to 270. That means that I'm to the point where most of my LT pulls are going to be duplicates, and only half of those will be able to be put to use on champions. So I'm saving at least until I get all my 4*s maxed.

As I'm hoarding I think "how many LTs will I have when I start opening?" Well, with my current ISO earn rate I should be able to gather the 1 million ISO I need in about 3-4 months. In that time I should collect roughly 60-80 LTs. By then there will likely be another 5* released, maybe 2. I currently have no phoenix covers (4 OML, 4 SS, but 0 phoenix), so when I open my latest tokens, they will all be from a pool of 5* characters for which I have no covers. Odds are with 60 pulls that I'm going to get six 5* covers - 2 from each new character. So after saving my LTs for 3-4 months I will not even come close to having a new usable 5* on my roster. No problem, just keep opening or saving as you go right? Wrong, as new 5* characters are released (even if the rate is only 1 every 3 months) I'm going to earn less than 1 additional cover for each of those 5*s/month. So by the time they rotate out I'll have on average 3-4 covers/character. If they all get added to the classic pool then EVENTUALLY I suppose I'll get them all covered (based on CP earn rates), but if the draw rate never goes higher than 10%, but keeps getting spread out over all the characters we are talking about years before someone that isn't spending TONS of money can have usable 5* characters.

So I'm not really sure what to do at this point. If I want to have a good shot at getting 10+ covers on a 5* character I'm going to have to open like 300 tokens (and even that would require a bit of luck on the pulls). At my current earn rate that means I'll be hoarding tokens for a year or more. Is that the desired state???

JamieMadrox

I know of at least one F2P player with a maxed (and championed) OML and a very usable SS. It's not impossible, you just need to place well in every PVP and PVE, get as much CP as you can for tokens, and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

Eddiemon

And of course they will never ever change how you acquire 5 stars as more come out. It's tragic that the game has been static in that regard since it was released. They should have developed things like DDQ and DDQ 4* to help people reach higher tiers as they became more common, or increase the number of covers acquirable from events, or heck release newer tokens that only guarantee higher tiered characters, but they never have.

Oh wait no that's all ****. The game has constantly evolved and increased access to covers over time. So making 'long-term' plans based on how things currently stand is beyond foolish. Make short-term plans and expect change, because it happens.

simonsez

Jamie Madrox wrote:

I know of at least one F2P player with a maxed (and championed) OML and a very usable SS. It's not impossible, you just need to place well in every PVP

Check...

Jamie Madrox wrote:

and PVE

Check...

Jamie Madrox wrote:

get as much CP as you can for tokens

Check...

Jamie Madrox wrote:

and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

Dammit!!! That's my problem... my butt is still a virgin...

PeterGibbons316

Jamie Madrox wrote:

I know of at least one F2P player with a maxed (and championed) OML and a very usable SS. It's not impossible, you just need to place well in every PVP and PVE, get as much CP as you can for tokens, and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

I don't think you read much beyond the title.

With new 5* releases it goes from needing you to be really really lucky, to being impossible.

kalex716

Its not even a factor of it being impossible as a F2P player... Its impossible for anything but whales.

Do you think spending 20 bucks a month on this game is honestly going to get the average player that much closer?

Nope, you better be ready to be dropping hundreds of dollars a month.

Thats what I cannot figure out about this game, why is the return on investment so **** terrible?

XandorXerxes

So, the new 25CP tokens actually make it possible (if you are patient) because they only have the newest three 5*s.

If we assume you need 18 covers per character to get it fully covered, and that your pulls are evenly spread (this may be the limiting factor), you need to get 54 5* covers, or use approximately 540 LTs. While that may not get you all 3, that should at least get you 1 fully covered one, likely 2. You just have to like the 3 five-stars that are out I suppose. At your maximum rate of 6/week, it would take you 90 weeks or 1.65 years to save up those tokens, assuming you get 6/week every week. At a more "realistic" 4/week, that's 133 weeks, or 2.56 years.

That's not counting any tokens from championing characters, CP earned, CP received from supply drops, or any 5* covers put in supply drops. If all that combined could push you up to 9 tokens/week, then you're talking 60 weeks - just over a year.

Now, if you play casually like I do and don't hit tokens in PvP or PvE then your title is probably accurate.

kalex716

XandorXerxes wrote:

So, the new 25CP tokens actually make it possible (if you are patient) because they only have the newest three 5*s.

If we assume you need 18 covers per character to get it fully covered, and that your pulls are evenly spread (this may be the limiting factor), you need to get 54 5* covers, or use approximately 540 LTs. While that may not get you all 3, that should at least get you 1 fully covered one, likely 2. You just have to like the 3 five-stars that are out I suppose. At your maximum rate of 6/week, it would take you 90 weeks or 1.65 years to save up those tokens, assuming you get 6/week every week. At a more "realistic" 4/week, that's 133 weeks, or 2.56 years.

That's not counting any tokens from championing characters, CP earned, CP received from supply drops, or any 5* covers put in supply drops. If all that combined could push you up to 9 tokens/week, then you're talking 60 weeks - just over a year.

Now, if you play casually like I do and don't hit tokens in PvP or PvE then your title is probably accurate.

I wouldn't call anybody willing to horde the only thing that gives us even a mild sense of elation from time to time to open in this game, for an entire year or more as a "patient person". I'd describe them as a sadist.

But I can appreciate you doing the napkin math!

PeterGibbons316

kalex716 wrote:

XandorXerxes wrote:

So, the new 25CP tokens actually make it possible (if you are patient) because they only have the newest three 5*s.

If we assume you need 18 covers per character to get it fully covered, and that your pulls are evenly spread (this may be the limiting factor), you need to get 54 5* covers, or use approximately 540 LTs. While that may not get you all 3, that should at least get you 1 fully covered one, likely 2. You just have to like the 3 five-stars that are out I suppose. At your maximum rate of 6/week, it would take you 90 weeks or 1.65 years to save up those tokens, assuming you get 6/week every week. At a more "realistic" 4/week, that's 133 weeks, or 2.56 years.

That's not counting any tokens from championing characters, CP earned, CP received from supply drops, or any 5* covers put in supply drops. If all that combined could push you up to 9 tokens/week, then you're talking 60 weeks - just over a year.

Now, if you play casually like I do and don't hit tokens in PvP or PvE then your title is probably accurate.

I wouldn't call anybody willing to horde the only thing that gives us even a mild sense of elation from time to time to open in this game, for an entire year or more as a "patient person". I'd describe them as a sadist.

But I can appreciate you doing the napkin math!

Right, and this is the even bigger problem. To successfully transition you are saving tokens for over a year for that one day where you finally collect and hope you get lucky. But what are you doing up until that point? You have eliminated the most vital element of progression. You can just slowly accumulate a diverse 4* roster, but that typically won't make you much more competitive in either PvE or PvP. So what then????

I'm to the point now where I can easily hit 1300 every PvP. And there is no incentive to push higher. I can compete as well as I need to in PvE events within my time constraints. The only thing left for me to do is start working on 5* characters to make it easier for me to push in PvP, but to successfully do that requires a year of hoarding tokens......I'm starting to wonder if I would have more fun spending that year doing something else.

JamieMadrox

PeterGibbons316 wrote:

Jamie Madrox wrote:

I know of at least one F2P player with a maxed (and championed) OML and a very usable SS. It's not impossible, you just need to place well in every PVP and PVE, get as much CP as you can for tokens, and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

I don't think you read much beyond the title.

With new 5* releases it goes from needing you to be really really lucky, to being impossible.

I guess I should have finished what I was originally going to say. The same player has one other 5* nearly complete, and at least one of each colour for the rest. So yes, it's not likely that the F2P player will ever be competitive again, but it's not impossible.

GrumpySmurf1002

PeterGibbons316 wrote:

I'm to the point now where I can easily hit 1300 every PvP. And there is no incentive to push higher. I can compete as well as I need to in PvE events within my time constraints. The only thing left for me to do is start working on 5* characters to make it easier for me to push in PvP, but to successfully do that requires a year of hoarding tokens......I'm starting to wonder if I would have more fun spending that year doing something else.

It's gonna really break your heart when you realize 1300 in PvP w/ no incentive to push higher & as good as I can within time restraints in PvE is all you're really getting out of a 5* roster too.

That's the kicker with a lot of these arguments. The only thing there is to do in this game is build a roster. Once it's built, then it's *fart noise* You can set personal goals like 10k in Shield Sim like those insane players, or try to put 64 strike tiles on a board.

This game sorely lacks stuff to just play, while your PvE and shield timers slowly tick away.

TxMoose

Jamie Madrox wrote:

PeterGibbons316 wrote:

Jamie Madrox wrote:

I know of at least one F2P player with a maxed (and championed) OML and a very usable SS. It's not impossible, you just need to place well in every PVP and PVE, get as much CP as you can for tokens, and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

I don't think you read much beyond the title.

With new 5* releases it goes from needing you to be really really lucky, to being impossible.

I guess I should have finished what I was originally going to say. The same player has one other 5* nearly complete, and at least one of each colour for the rest. So yes, it's not likely that the F2P player will ever be competitive again, but it's not impossible.

sounds like you're saying that since LeBron James, Tom Brady, and Mike Trout are at the top of their respective games, their performance should be applied as expectation to the masses... it's "possible", right? you mentioned the top 1% of the top 1% of the top 1% of f2p players. and while I'm a little surprised that a truly f2p player has done that well (maybe a f2p player in a top alliance that gets lots of cp help from others?), I think what most of us would like is a better path for the top 2%-4% of the game, since that's where many of us are, f2p or otherwise.

edit: granted impossible might not be the precise word to use here - probably needs something more along the lines of "extremely unlikely" like when I didn't win the 1.5 billion the other night... gee, a lottery example is pretty applicable here.

Linkster79

If the 5* release continues then if you haven't made your 5* transition yet then you are very unlikely to catch up. The pool will keep getting diluted and it shall be harder and harder to target individual characters. 5*'s are indeed the new 4*, most players will have a few undercover, under levelled and only there as trophies to mess up you MMR and scaling.

rkd80

Putting in all the effort and hard work of completing PVEs and placing well in PVP only to have the end game governed by the distance a horseshoe is lodged up one's rectum is precisely the problem.

JamieMadrox

TxMoose wrote:

Jamie Madrox wrote:

PeterGibbons316 wrote:

Jamie Madrox wrote:

I know of at least one F2P player with a maxed (and championed) OML and a very usable SS. It's not impossible, you just need to place well in every PVP and PVE, get as much CP as you can for tokens, and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

I don't think you read much beyond the title.

With new 5* releases it goes from needing you to be really really lucky, to being impossible.

I guess I should have finished what I was originally going to say. The same player has one other 5* nearly complete, and at least one of each colour for the rest. So yes, it's not likely that the F2P player will ever be competitive again, but it's not impossible.

sounds like you're saying that since LeBron James, Tom Brady, and Mike Trout are at the top of their respective games, their performance should be applied as expectation to the masses... it's "possible", right?

No I'm not sauing that at all. In fact I agree completely that 5* and their implementation/distribution are bad for the game. I'm just saying what I said. It is possible. It's not likely (oh look I said that too), but it is possible.

TxMoose wrote:

you mentioned the top 1% of the top 1% of the top 1% of f2p players. and while I'm a little surprised that a truly f2p player has done that well (maybe a f2p player in a top alliance that gets lots of cp help from others?), I think what most of us would like is a better path for the top 2%-4% of the game, since that's where many of us are, f2p or otherwise.

I couldn't agree more. The progression to 5* and through 4*, needs to be better. We need 4* PVPs that reward 5* covers. or additional CP/Legendary tokens. We need leagues that allow lower roster players to compete for the next level of rewards against similarly strong characters. We need more ISO for the characters that are being heaped on us. We need more HP for roster slots. Etc.

TxMoose wrote:

edit: granted impossible might not be the precise word to use here - probably needs something more along the lines of "extremely unlikely" like when I didn't win the 1.5 billion the other night... gee, a lottery example is pretty applicable here.

Very applicable. Covers in general and 5* covers specifically are more expensive and have worse odds that most Vegas games. Blackjack has 42.22% odds of winning. A specific 5* cover is 1.11%, a specific character is 3.33% and any 5* character is only 10%. You're better off going to a casino.

TxMoose

understood Jamie - thought you were implying something else. I think the whole key is...

Jamie Madrox wrote:

and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

now if they sold an account upgrade for this, they could make some serious jack.

PeterGibbons316

Jamie Madrox wrote:

PeterGibbons316 wrote:

Jamie Madrox wrote:

I know of at least one F2P player with a maxed (and championed) OML and a very usable SS. It's not impossible, you just need to place well in every PVP and PVE, get as much CP as you can for tokens, and have a horseshoe shoved so far up where the sun don't shine that you can spit nails.

I don't think you read much beyond the title.

With new 5* releases it goes from needing you to be really really lucky, to being impossible.

I guess I should have finished what I was originally going to say. The same player has one other 5* nearly complete, and at least one of each colour for the rest. So yes, it's not likely that the F2P player will ever be competitive again, but it's not impossible.

Again, you are talking about current state, my dilemma is future state. I'm trying to plan for my future, and it looks bleak - as it will for anyone that isn't a super whale. Right now there are only four 5*s to choose from, and when SS and OML were first released they were the only ones. It was a lot easier to get a usable SS/OML than it will be for all future 5* characters. As soon as Phoenix was released the drop rate reduced to 3.33 (repeating of course) % from 5%. It's going to get even harder.

You won't be able to have a proper 5* transition like you did at every other tier. To get a usable 5* character you are going to have to save up hundreds of tokens over a period of no less than 1 year, open them all at once, and pray to RNGesus that you get enough covers from the 5*(s) that you want to be usable.


I left out the CP portion of the discussion, but it's worth talking about (and IMO doesn't really make the situation much better.....) Here I'll assume 1 LT worth of CP/week. Call it 20, call it 25.....both are IMO a bit generous, but it doesn't really matter for this discussion. If I earn enough CP for 1 additional LT each week that gives me roughly 5 additional 5* covers after my year of hoarding (or perhaps 2 known 5* covers @ 720 CP/pop.....starts to make sense long-term in the context of this discussion). If we are talking about balancing out a 5* roster those 5* covers get distributed across all classic characters. So now there are 3, but a year from now maybe there are 6. So you pull on average one additional cover for each of them in a year. So it's not "impossible" to make the 5* transition, but it is either extremely unlikely, and/or extremely slow. And how do we decide whether to spend CP on latest or classic covers? My OML is 2/1/1 - playable in PvE, and not total garbage in PvP (although not a deterrent either), I'd really like to have more covers for him, but does it make sense to spend CP on classic covers trying to earn more OML, or save it for some as yet unmentioned 5* to come? This has always been a key decision in the game - and part of what makes the 2/3/4* roster building aspect enjoyable, but at those tiers you can afford to make a mistake. At the 5* tier a poor decision can take over a year to correct......

If you want to talk about the possibility of keeping up with ALL new 5* characters......it is statistically impossible in the long-term with the current reward structure.

And honestly, maybe all of this is fine. Maybe that's the intent. Maybe we don't want the game floaded with any more rosters filled with maxed 5* characters. But I had been playing under the assumption that eventually I would be able to max my OML or my SS or some other new 5* character that I really liked.....in time. But the more I think about it, the more I realize that this is an impossibility. I'm going to have to hoard tokens for over a year and then hope that the latest 5* characters are the ones worth having maxed covers for.

teknofyl

This gets back to the question "What purpose does the 5-star tier serve?"

I am fairly sure that design-wise the purpose of this tier is to provide something resembling an end-game goal. While there are people with maxed 5-star characters, from what I'm seeing these people are the exception to the intent, not representative of the design intent.

As you said, it happened because of the nature of the 5-star roll-out. I think the flaw in the OP's logic comes from assuming that the outcomes from the transient opening period of the 5-star era represented the intended nature of the experience. It looks like the intent for the steady-state is that 5-star characters will fill out very gradually, and only with a lot of effort or money or both.

The 4-star tier was this way for a while, and all of the changes made with command points have been to make it more random with the pricing of directly purchasing covers becoming prohibitive. That, to me, makes the intent very, very clear: PVP-usable 5-stars are not part of any direct progression scheme. The fact that some have been able to do so is a failure, not a feature, of the scheme.

rkd80

I think the only real failure that D3 has done is to add command points to $$ purchases. If we only had data on who owned 5*, I am confident that days after the CP introduction the 5* covers saw a massive spike and continue to do so today.

In fact there were two major intervals.

1) The LT exploit
2) The CP => $$ feature.

Otherwise the 5* themselves were fine, they represented the elite of the elite and were really something awe inspiring. They were meant to be super rare and obnoxiously powerful characters that one would eventually stumble into.

However CPs brought along buyers clubs and that in turn distorted the entire picture. Perhaps D3 did not imagine people getting together and dropping $500 in one swoop, but it happened. Now the game is broken. That was the failure.

Although failure in our eyes is probably jaw dropping success in the eyes of Demiurge who most likely see no reason to change this broken system that fills their coffers daily. Of course in time they will realize the folly of their ways as the game once again becomes stagnant and whales will want more and more and more, while middle tier players give up and leave. Oops.

Linkster79

teknofyl wrote:

This gets back to the question "What purpose does the 5-star tier serve?"

fight4thedream

Linkster79 wrote:

teknofyl wrote:

This gets back to the question "What purpose does the 5-star tier serve?"

*whispers* "follow the money" *disappears into the darkness of the night*