Supremacy Goods Effect

atomzed

(Disclaimer: I'm not an expert nor well verse in the gaming economy. But I like to read and this was something I came across. I felt that it may be describing what MPQ is experiencing.)

This Gamasutra article talks about the "Supremacy Good" (SG).

http://gamasutra.com/view/feature/17719 ... ation_.php

He defines SG as "A supremacy good is a good or service that reduces the value of all other linked goods and services in its space, including itself."

I argue that at this point in time, 5* characters are a form of SG. At 5/6 covers or more, 5* reduces the value of all other * levels. It also reduces the value of itself, as a player with a 5*, no longer feel the need to compete for the 4* and 3* rewards.

The risk of the SG is that it monetized well ONLY in the beginning. It eventually hollows up the game population. See the description the writer said:

"Multiplayer games are generally played on servers, where each server is a distinct play environment that is separate from other servers. For payers on these servers, a game of "virtual chicken" arises where the committed spenders will attempt to outspend each other.

Once the "winner" has been determined by spending the most, monetization activity rapidly approaches zero and servers become similar to ghost towns. The typical Asian microtransaction model-based product adapts to this by starting new servers every few weeks to allow players on dead servers to start the process over again on a new server. Unless you plan to "spend the most" on this next server, at some point the whole process becomes apparently futile, and the consumer will adapt by realizing the only way to win is to not play."

I believe that the SG effect can be seen in the following events in MPQ:
1) Increase in buyer clubs, where players gather together to obtain the coveted CP, the only currency to purchase a chance of LT and to obtain the SG.
2) Increase in posts about disappointment with LT and 5*. The posts by Raffon and the posts from many veteran players suggest an increasing burn out.
3) Inflation of scores for top 100. Several players have indicated that even a 1k score may not be able to get them into top 100 (though this is shard dependent). My fear is that the new players will leave when they see that they are so far behind the curve.

D3 will have to manage this situation very carefully from now onwards.

I love this game and have plonk in a lot of money. This is not a rant about the 5*, but rather the effect of 5* on the game retention of players. My greatest fear is that the game will eventually be shut down when the gaming population is hollowed out.

I welcome any constructive discussion about my opinion. If anyone knows any newer article related to this topic please share too.

wymtime

The issue is in PVP. If you look at what D3 is doing adding CP and more 4* rewards to PVE is they are trying to drive he player base to PVE over PVP. They realize PVP is so pay to win right now. They tried to change this with shield cool downs, but players figured out how to still score 2k plus. They should just make PVP a 4* playground with 4* rewards with CP as progression rewards like in naughty or nice PVP.
they could the. Run a 3* o lower PVP and let players enter one or the other for season rewards.

Mawtful

I think that's an accurate observation of what MPQ is experiencing right now.

atomzed wrote:

D3 will have to manage this situation very carefully from now onwards.

I think that's why, in part, we've had a hold on 5*'s. As soon as they start adding more, we'll definitely see an increase in spending - at least until a winner emerges.

atomzed wrote:

I love this game and have plonk in a lot of money. This is not a rant about the 5*, but rather the effect of 5* on the game retention of players. My greatest fear is that the game will eventually be shut down when the gaming population is hollowed out.

The game will fail. It's destined to fail.
For the fist 12-18 months, the developers were making decisions to grow the user base, but now the decisions being made are in order to grow profit margins. Quite simply, the game is no longer the primary focus and, for as long as that is the case, the game will continue to die.

If you do not intend to "win", then the best course of action would be to stop spending now and just enjoy the game as best you can for as long as you can.

atomzed

Mawtful wrote:

atomzed wrote:

I love this game and have plonk in a lot of money. This is not a rant about the 5*, but rather the effect of 5* on the game retention of players. My greatest fear is that the game will eventually be shut down when the gaming population is hollowed out.

The game will fail. It's destined to fail.
For the fist 12-18 months, the developers were making decisions to grow the user base, but now the decisions being made are in order to grow profit margins. Quite simply, the game is no longer the primary focus and, for as long as that is the case, the game will continue to die.

If you do not intend to "win", then the best course of action would be to stop spending now and just enjoy the game as best you can for as long as you can.

I am under no illusion that the game will eventually shut down. Mobile games don't have a very long life span... And the fact that MPQ is in the second year is a good achievement.

I just hope that the game will stay on for another 2-3 years before it eventually dies off...

Dauthi

Mawtful wrote:

atomzed wrote:

I love this game and have plonk in a lot of money. This is not a rant about the 5*, but rather the effect of 5* on the game retention of players. My greatest fear is that the game will eventually be shut down when the gaming population is hollowed out.

The game will fail. It's destined to fail.
For the fist 12-18 months, the developers were making decisions to grow the user base, but now the decisions being made are in order to grow profit margins. Quite simply, the game is no longer the primary focus and, for as long as that is the case, the game will continue to die.

If you do not intend to "win", then the best course of action would be to stop spending now and just enjoy the game as best you can for as long as you can.

The last change that benefitted the long term success of the game was the last time we had all the buffs/nerfs and the health boost. You know a company cares about the long term when they are balancing their characters while making more. Looking past this though, the boost of health packs from 5 to 10 was absolutely generous and completely supported the long term success of the game vs the short term because they are focusing on the game play and making it enjoyable.

These changes were so long ago it seems like though, and I think everyone is holding their breath for another one. Like a lot of the depressed players now, I am waiting for the new big update and hoping it will be a change focusing on the long term success of the game.

tanis3303

I think everyone is waiting on the edge of their seats for this shiny new feature, and hoping beyond hope that it reinvigorates the game and their interest in it. I also think that the dev team is rolling in money piles naked like Demi Moore right now, and as they realize just how much people are willing to drop on this game, they realize that they can pay-gate EVERYTHING and people will simply pony up. We've all heard the rumors about this feature, and my tin-foil hat is on. I'm expecting an astronomical initial cost per-character to do it. My guess is somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-15 CP or 500 HP or 50,000 ISO per 3*, and double that for 4*s.

Are people going to be pissed? Yep, they sure are. Are people going to pay up? You bet your **** they are. Free to play and even moderate spending (think buying a roster slot here and there, maybe some 4* covers to finish out a character once in a while) is becoming a non-sustainable way to play, and that can only sustain itself for so long before the only players left are the whales. How long are they gonna play against themselves exclusively before they get tired of that?

Players are leaving the game in waves, either because of purely luck-based progression or the frustration of having 2 years worth of game-time progress completely obseleted by the rich and the lucky getting their Old Man Logan's online. And it all started by creating a tier the game wasn't ready for, that was never supposed to be purchasable, and making it completely purchasable. I'm a little shocked by just how quickly it happened, but by monetizing a tier of play that completely obseleted every single other aspect of the game, I'm not at all surprised that it did happen. It's a shame, because at its core, this is a great game.

This new feature could fix everything and give lower tier players something to strive for, and a clear way to see their rosters progress and get stronger. But I'm 99.85% sure there will be a pay-gate, and given the amount of money that's been spent on the 5* tier, I'm expecting the cost to be more than a lot of players are willing to stomach. Why? Because people will pay it. Will the ratio of those that pay up be greater than those that decide this is the squall that stroked the camel's sack and quit? Only time will tell...

nic13

Oh! There are 5*'s in the game?!?!

Sure didn't notice it, seems like everyone runs 1* teams in pvp!!

Blahahah

1k isn't even enough? What?
I got like 800 points in one and maintained a top 25 score.
Livin la vida 3*

Punisher5784

I wish 5* was 1v3. They have high enough match damage and HP to kill a team. Surfer proved that a few months ago during the demo node of him.

puppychow

I'm not quite convinced that the game MPQ will die out in the near future. The reason I say this is due to my experience w/ Magic the Gathering. I discovered the game during the release of the Third (Revised) Edition in the 90s, and at one point I had a full set of Moxes, in addition to the Black Lotus, a full set of Arabian Nights, etc. I saw the way Wizards of the Coast kept releasing new series for the game, and frankly I couldn't afford to keep buying packs for these never ending new sets. Twenty years later, I still see new series being released at my local Targets, as the game has gone mainstream.

MPQ has the potential for a long, extensive run---so long as mobile devices (tablets, smartphones, etc.) are relevant to the average consumer. To the extent where new technology becomes available and such devices are no longer in vogue/in use in the future, I think THAT would be when MPQ will start to die out due to a shrinking consumer base for the devices that run this game.

Dauthi

puppychow wrote:

I'm not quite convinced that the game MPQ will die out in the near future. The reason I say this is due to my experience w/ Magic the Gathering. I discovered the game during the release of the Third (Revised) Edition in the 90s, and at one point I had a full set of Moxes, in addition to the Black Lotus, a full set of Arabian Nights, etc. I saw the way Wizards of the Coast kept releasing new series for the game, and frankly I couldn't afford to keep buying packs for these never ending new sets. Twenty years later, I still see new series being released at my local Targets, as the game has gone mainstream.

The difference is that Magic was the first major successful collectible card game, and because of that held it's title with ease. It took a long time for anything else to really compete against it. MPQ doesn't hit a specialized niche, and it definitely isn't the only game that can offer what it offers. Mobile games are becoming very popular so making a successful one is becoming harder.

Also, like others have stated, the game may stay around for awhile but be a shell of it's former self. For instance containing only new players and whales (what seems like their currently targeted audience).

It really comes down to their next big update on what direction the game goes. I really hope to see a honest unselfish move in it, like when they gave us 10 health packs.

atomzed

puppychow wrote:

I'm not quite convinced that the game MPQ will die out in the near future. The reason I say this is due to my experience w/ Magic the Gathering. I discovered the game during the release of the Third (Revised) Edition in the 90s, and at one point I had a full set of Moxes, in addition to the Black Lotus, a full set of Arabian Nights, etc. I saw the way Wizards of the Coast kept releasing new series for the game, and frankly I couldn't afford to keep buying packs for these never ending new sets. Twenty years later, I still see new series being released at my local Targets, as the game has gone mainstream.

That a are a few differences about Magic and Mpq.

1)Magic cards are finite (each set) whereas Mpq covers are not. Scarcity creates a thriving secondary market. That makes people willing to buy and keep the cards.

2) Magic cards are rotated in blocks of 3 sets. Subsequently the cards are retired from official tournament. This allows new player to "catch up" within each set. In mpq, every new char dilutes the token pool and player are expected to collect ALL the characters which is a high cost of entry.

3) Magic cards are balanced within each block. Balance is crucial so that a thriving meta game exists. Also, after each set is release, Magic will evaluate the meta and create new cards in the next set to balance it. Mpq, while it is balanced as best as it can, never retire the characters... Which means that balancing becomes more and more difficult. For example, because prof x will never be retired d3 always have to be careful about creating characters that have abilities that increase match 5 with their strongest color.

So magic and mpq are currently very different in terms of their systems. They are not directly comparable.

Unknown

To not mention MPQ isn't a TCG and MTG isn't a match3...

CNash

tanis3303 wrote:

I think everyone is waiting on the edge of their seats for this shiny new feature, and hoping beyond hope that it reinvigorates the game and their interest in it. I also think that the dev team is rolling in money piles naked like Demi Moore right now, and as they realize just how much people are willing to drop on this game, they realize that they can pay-gate EVERYTHING and people will simply pony up. We've all heard the rumors about this feature, and my tin-foil hat is on. I'm expecting an astronomical initial cost per-character to do it. My guess is somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-15 CP or 500 HP or 50,000 ISO per 3*, and double that for 4*s.

This is the "nightmare scenario". Whether by accident or by design (and I'm betting "accident", coupled with the Christmas break affecting release schedules), the developers have built up a huge amount of hype for this new feature, and I get the feeling that everyone here is waiting, tensely, on the edge of their seats for a complete rundown of the new feature to arrive. When it drops, if there's even a hint of "pay to win" or catering to the whales, this place is going to go up like a tinderbox. God help us if the monetization aspect is as bad as you're predicting. 4* DDQ was bad enough, and even then the backlash was dampened by the willingness of the players to treat each battle as a puzzle to be solved rather than a brick wall.

If the new feature isn't made accessible to players who spend modest amounts, or don't spend at all, Demiurge will see a large drop-off in user retention that no amount of new shiny characters will fix.

Linkster79

To be fair to D3 they have tried to suppress any information about it so as to not create any hype other than "New gameplay mechanic"

Personally I am expecting the very worst so as not to be too disappointed. Past experience has taught me this.

On a positive note at least the community manager(s) should be very well rested and waiting by the forums to allay any concern as soon as it goes live.

CNash

Yes, what a baptism of fire this will be for our new Cthulhu!

Raffoon

CNash wrote:

Yes, what a baptism of fire this will be for our new Cthulhu!

If he's anything like the former IceIX and the current Hi-Fi, I'm sure that he or she will find some sort of convention to go to for the entire week following the new feature release.

Oh sorry, let me ammend that. When I say "convention" I actually mean "convention where all the internet has been turned off so they can't access the forums through any of the myriad of devices that would allow it in the modern day".

Yeah, I'm still bitter about the complete silence that followed the Galactus release for almost 2 days. It's not like there are 2 people being paid specifically to interact with the community or anything................


On topic: Thanks for bringing in an economic discussion

Blahahah

ShionSinX wrote:

To not mention MPQ isn't a TCG and MTG isn't a match3...

It is now

SnowcaTT

wymtime wrote:

The issue is in PVP. If you look at what D3 is doing adding CP and more 4* rewards to PVE is they are trying to drive he player base to PVE over PVP.

This, so much this. I've been saying this every time they release something in PVE - they obviously have realized lots of vets are going PVP only, but PVE is half of their game. Rather than releasing...I don't know, new play types or content rather than new characters over and over....they are trying to breath life into PVE.

So what we've seen:
LT's added to PVE
CP's added to PVE nodes
PVE reward structure modified

What we haven't seen:
LT's not hurt you over and over with RNG (so why bother pushing for them?)
20-iso over and over without other rewards (so why bother pushing for CP?)
Time constraints changed so you don't have to hit every refresh and grind (no T10 if you have a life...so why bother trying for progressions?)

--D3, do you see a problem? Once folks have played your PVE over, and over, and OVER...constantly having to grind the nodes without great rewards...they burn out on that gameplay and switch over to something more worth the value compared to the time. This is why PVP is played more and DDQ is generally beloved - the time commitment isn't nearly as severe!

Rather than trying to ensure your players continue with the game-mode that burns them out, maybe you should do something -ABOUT- that game-mode so it isn't burning folks out?

atomzed

SnowcaTT wrote:

wymtime wrote:

The issue is in PVP. If you look at what D3 is doing adding CP and more 4* rewards to PVE is they are trying to drive he player base to PVE over PVP.

This, so much this. I've been saying this every time they release something in PVE - they obviously have realized lots of vets are going PVP only, but PVE is half of their game. Rather than releasing...I don't know, new play types or content rather than new characters over and over....they are trying to breath life into PVE.


Rather than trying to ensure your players continue with the game-mode that burns them out, maybe you should do something -ABOUT- that game-mode so it isn't burning folks out?

You forgot to mention about scaling in pve. Vet move away from pve because of the scaling.. the more they level their characters the more they are stuck with high level enemies.

That is a key reason why vet don't play pve short of the new char releases....

tanis3303

Agreed. All this change really accomplished was promoting late-join bracket sniping. No way am I going to grind every single PvE event to dust, day after day, week after week, fighting tooth and nail for either a t10 finish or literally nothing (to me anyway, my 3* roster is finished and maxed) but I MIGHT be willing to find a fresh bracket on the last day and try to steal myself a t10 finish for a 4* I want. Since this goes against the grain of what the story mode is supposed to be about, I'm not sure I see their logic here...then again, I rarely ever see the logic in their choices, sooooo