What are the odds? (4* transition)

Magic

Hi,

I would like to share some stats on token pulls i was gathering in last 30 days on my way to full 4* roster. To give a bit of perspective. I have all 4* on my roster ranging from 13 to 1 covers. None of them is perfectly covered (Devil Dino is but he is not in packs) so I can use even IW cover if it has correct color. I have no use for any 3* cover at this point.

It was a month of active play (but some pve were taken very lightly so I don't have all LT and event tokens) and I am FTP. In my alliance someone occasionally buys packs so i get an odd CP here and there on top of the PVE ones.

I have opened the following tokens:
42 heroic tokens - got 4 4* covers and I found use for all of them.
63 events tokens - got 1 4* cover and I found use for it.
70 taco tokens (when HB and IceMan were there) - got 0 4* covers, 0 LT tokens. The best award was 1000 HP.
15 legendary tokens - got 11 4* covers I could use and 3 5* covers. Only one Yellow Nick Fury I had to sell.
I have played 14 PVP events and got to 1k seven times (each time for a cover I could use).

So in total I have got 23 4* covers in a month (plus 3 5* but that is just pure luck that puts me ahead of the curve). Maybe I could have fight for more (I have missed 2-4 LT tokens and 7 PVP 1k awards... not going to bleed for Electra).

Still - 23 covers in a month seems like a good amount. Obviously I got lucky with LT pulls as I got mostly useful covers (will it change after this post?). PVP was the second best source of covers an Heroic tokens round up the podium. Taco tokens are the biggest waste of time as I have opened them in one "go" but they have given more IOS then poor Event pulls so I would rate the event tokens as the most useless for my progression.

This month i will be hoarding tokens to open them in one go. I will see if the figures are similar/better/worse.

OneLastGambit

Interesting post and nice to see someone actually provide empirical data with no bias. I did track my heroic/event pulls for a while but not all my token pulls like you have. I'd say your progress is quite swift and I'm sure satisfying, I would expect it to start slowing down once you have covered a couple of your 4* roster but looks good so far.

STOPTHIS

Nice haul. Also nice to see someone score big.

This season has been a bit of drought for me. Only 7 4* (and 1 5* that I sold) over the season. Only 2 came from non-Legendary tokens or CmdPts. Which is down from 16 in season 19 and the off-season (including the Anniversary) and 11 in season 20.

Bowgentle

OP has a 30% draw rate for 5* covers from 15 tokens, with zero optimally covered 4*.

Then there's guys going 0/50 who have 7+ maxed 4*s.

Yeah, making high end progression completely and utterly luck-based was an awesome idea.
I have no idea why nobody except the devs can see that.

moogles85

Bowgentle wrote:

OP has a 30% draw rate for 5* covers from 15 tokens, with zero optimally covered 4*.

Then there's guys going 0/50 who have 7+ maxed 4*s.

Yeah, making high end progression completely and utterly luck-based was an awesome idea.
I have no idea why nobody except the devs can see that.

Working as intended I suppose.

PeterGibbons316

Magic

Magic wrote:

Hi,

I would like to share some stats on token pulls i was gathering in last 30 days on my way to full 4* roster. To give a bit of perspective. I have all 4* on my roster ranging from 13 to 1 covers. None of them is perfectly covered (Devil Dino is but he is not in packs) so I can use even IW cover if it has correct color. I have no use for any 3* cover at this point.

It was a month of active play (but some pve were taken very lightly so I don't have all LT and event tokens) and I am FTP. In my alliance someone occasionally buys packs so i get an odd CP here and there on top of the PVE ones.

I have opened the following tokens:
42 heroic tokens - got 4 4* covers and I found use for all of them.
63 events tokens - got 1 4* cover and I found use for it.
70 taco tokens (when HB and IceMan were there) - got 0 4* covers, 0 LT tokens. The best award was 1000 HP.
15 legendary tokens - got 11 4* covers I could use and 3 5* covers. Only one Yellow Nick Fury I had to sell.
I have played 14 PVP events and got to 1k seven times (each time for a cover I could use).

So in total I have got 23 4* covers in a month (plus 3 5* but that is just pure luck that puts me ahead of the curve). Maybe I could have fight for more (I have missed 2-4 LT tokens and 7 PVP 1k awards... not going to bleed for Electra).

Still - 23 covers in a month seems like a good amount. Obviously I got lucky with LT pulls as I got mostly useful covers (will it change after this post?). PVP was the second best source of covers an Heroic tokens round up the podium. Taco tokens are the biggest waste of time as I have opened them in one "go" but they have given more IOS then poor Event pulls so I would rate the event tokens as the most useless for my progression.

This month i will be hoarding tokens to open them in one go. I will see if the figures are similar/better/worse.

One month has passed and I have new data to share. This time I have played significantly less PvE (as there were too many 7 day grinds). I also have Hulkbuster fully operational (not max level but that is detail) so obtaining PvP 4* is easier now. On top of that - championing increased (and compensated for lack of PvE) the Legendary token numbers but that is one off - I will not have many more 3* to champion (saving iso for 4*).

Stats:
Heroic - opened 52 tokens to get 2 4* (one useful)
Event - opened 44 tokens to get one 4* (useful)
Legendary Opened 22 tokens to pull 2 5* (rates a bit lower than average and much lower than last month) and 17 4* covers I could use. Some doubles but still on fire.
PvP - played 12 PvP events and got 6 covers I needed (did not push for the other 6). I have missed out one PvP due to patch issues.
PvE - won one PvE event for 3 Thoress covers (i have used one to max cover her).
Taco - zero. I have hoarded them all as the last time around was not really successful.

As before - PvP and LT are the only reliable source of 4*. The Heroic and Event tokens are both **** Top 10 in PvE is too much of a grind for me.

In total 26 4* covers I could use (plus 2 5*). I feel the progression will somewhat slow down this month but we will see.

Bowgentle

Magic wrote:

In total 26 4* covers I could use (plus 2 5*). I feel the progression will somewhat slow down this month but we will see.

So you're 5/37 for 5*s from LTs.

I'm 5/110.

Excuse me while I go kill myself.

Monged4life

Interesting thread, though I do kind of want to pat Bowgentle on the head and tell him it'll be alright.

Look forward to how good (Magic) and bad (Bowgentle) do next Month!

Magic

Bowgentle wrote:

Magic wrote:

In total 26 4* covers I could use (plus 2 5*). I feel the progression will somewhat slow down this month but we will see.

So you're 5/37 for 5*s from LTs.

I'm 5/110.

Excuse me while I go kill myself.

Sorry to hear that mate. If this is any consolation - the stat doesn't include all LT before (not that many - maybe about 20) where I did not get 5*. Still not too good.

Anyway - I start the new count tomorrow. Hopefully some 5* arrive.

Polares

Magic wrote:

...

This month i will be hoarding tokens to open them in one go. I will see if the figures are similar/better/worse.

Spoiler alert: It is going to be worse, 100% sure

You were REALLY LUCKY this month.

Magic

Polares wrote:

Magic wrote:

...

This month i will be hoarding tokens to open them in one go. I will see if the figures are similar/better/worse.

Spoiler alert: It is going to be worse, 100% sure

You were REALLY LUCKY this month.

The new post shows the figures. I did open most of them in one go but that didn't change the figures. I was less lucky but not by much. I take another month like this without a blink of an eye.

Magic

Hi all,

Month 3 of the experiment is over and the figures are finally here.

I have opened 27 Legenary tokens and opened 2 5* and 23 useful 4*. So I had to sell 2 4* cards.
I have got 5 useful 4* cards from PvP (out of 12 I have played). In most cases if I don't need it I won't push for 1k. Still not close to 1,3k.
The other tokens were a disaster. Both 50 heroic and 50 event tokens got me 1 4* that I had to sell. Very disappointing.
I've got also some Nova covers in the PvE release event.
Another month proves the same result - LT are the only reliable source of 4* covers. The PvP is a bit of a mix - depends on who is being awarded. Heroic and events tokens are a drama. We will see if the DDQ tokens will bring better result as I intend to open as if there is a nice card with Jean cover for the next vault (it will be over 180 tokens unless I pull one of top 4 prices earlier).

In summary:
1st month:
LT: 15 open, 11 4* cover useful, 3 5* covers
Other tokens: 175 golden tokens - 5 covers useful
PvP: 14 played, 7 useful covers
Total: 3x 5* and 23 4* covers I could use

2nd month:
LT: 22 tokens, 2x 5*, 17 4* covers
Other tokens: 96 token open -3 covers useful
PvP: 12 played, 6 useful covers
PvE: 3 covers won, 1 useful
Total: 2x 5*, 27 4* covers I could use

3rd month:
LT: 27 tokens, 2x5*, 23 useful covers
Other tokens: 100 tokens, 0 covers
PvP: 12 played, 5 covers useful
PvE: 3 covers (Nova)
Total: 2x 5*, 31 4* covers

5* odds: 64 tokens - 7 5* (slightly above average). In the 4* land - 81 covers in 3 months (plus some doubles).

Sadly I am basically done with championing. All 3* that are not championed are lvl 140 or below. Since I can't hit 1,3k in PvP the progression will now slow down a lot for me. Still I need one more cover for IceMan and maybe I will be able to push with Icebuster to 1,3k. We shall see soon.

mmrosek

Thanks for posting this Magic! I'm curious how you get so many LT without hitting 1300 in pvp? I've taken a step back from playtime where I used to hit 1300 every event, and now hit 800-1000, and I feel like I only opened a couple LT last season. I stopped tracking after the first 150 LTs though, so maybe there's more CP and LTs than I thought.

Magic

I was surprised myself but I think there is more than you think there is. I open the 20 CP one whenever I have a chance so that saves me 5 for the next one. My alliance will splash for 30-40 CP per season (sometimes more, sometimes less). I try to hit each PvE (so you get it from nodes and the award). 4 day event will give you anything between 33 and 40+ CP (depends on the placement). In PvP you get it from placement as well. I also have 19 3* championed and 1 4* championed (but this source is dry now). Plus the season 10k award. It adds up.

I expect to have around 15 this season due to lack of viable champions.

XandorXerxes

Your first month was indeed really lucky. The last month was a little unlucky, but not by much - the odds of pulling 0 4*s in 100 tokens is a little less than 1/7. I feel your pain here, it's happened to me a few times. When you play as slow as I do (no PvE, PvP only for top5/favorites) that gets drawn out over several months and it's a real drain.

Good luck next month!

Spider-man 6234

+1 to the OP. Interesting to be able and check the data of someone else and see what their pull rate is.

Magic

Month number 4 has passed and it wasn't great at all. I kept playing in a leisure way (limiting most PvE to CP nods and new releases). In PvP I got the covers I needed and didn't bother with the ones I didn't need or want (for example I would not waste my time to push to 1k when it's StarLord or Electra even if they are not maxed covered). The flow of Legendary has been cut in half by the fact that I don't have any more 3* to champ (well - i still have 20 not champed but I need the iso for 2-3 of the 4* before I consider champing other 3*).

Opened last month:
14 Legendary tokens gave me 1 5* (my 5th Phoenix cover, she remains lvl 255 as I only have 2 colors) and 10 usable 4* (including one Hulkbuster that I have previously championed). That means that I have got 1 5* in over 20 straight pulls from LT. That's bad.
The event tokens were slightly better this month - 2 usable 4* out of 47 pulls (both from Vaults). The Heroics gave me 3 4* but only 1 usable. I also got 4 in the PvE events (new releases) and 3 from 12 PvP events (plus one I had to sell). So this month - 20 usable 4* and 1 5* covers. Not the best month and unfortunately with 9 4* maxed covered and lack of iso i am looking at more selling that using next month as well. Therefore I will be in hoarding mode this month - I will open them all after the current season. Maybe this will improve my luck (no harm in trying). I am also waiting to have a Taco vault with 2 needed 4* - no luck in this regard. What I am looking for with hope is the fact that I will be able to max my IceMan at the season end (he is lvl 250 and waiting for one cover). This should allow me to go for 1,3k and increase the CP flow dramatically.

In summary:
4th month:
LT: 14 tokens, 1 5*, 10 useful covers
Other tokens: 102, 5 4* covers including 3 useful.
PvP: 12 played, 3 useful covers
PvP: 4 covers for new releases
Total: 1 5* and 20 4* covers

3rd month:
LT: 27 tokens, 2x5*, 23 useful covers
Other tokens: 100 tokens, 0 covers
PvP: 12 played, 5 covers useful
PvE: 3 covers (Nova)
Total: 2x 5*, 31 4* covers

2nd month:
LT: 22 tokens, 2x 5*, 17 4* covers
Other tokens: 96 token open -3 covers useful
PvP: 12 played, 6 useful covers
PvE: 3 covers won, 1 useful
Total: 2x 5*, 27 4* covers I could use

1st month:
LT: 15 open, 11 4* cover useful, 3 5* covers
Other tokens: 175 golden tokens - 5 covers useful
PvP: 14 played, 7 useful covers
Total: 3x 5* and 23 4* covers I could use

5* odds: 78 tokens - 8 5* (on average). In the 4* land - 101 covers in 4 months (not counting doubles).

Bowgentle

Magic wrote:

5* odds: 78 tokens - 8 5* (slightly below average).

5* odds are 10%, so you're pulling slightly above average.

Magic

Bowgentle wrote:

Magic wrote:

5* odds: 78 tokens - 8 5* (slightly below average).

5* odds are 10%, so you're pulling slightly above average.

Corrected. Thanks.

Pylgrim

OP's luck is insane. Not even when I started my transition and I had only a maxed IW + XF with a few assorted Furys and Electras and 1-3 covers of all the other 16 4*s (back then) I got a 90% rate of useful covers from my LTs. For the couple months I chronicled it, while the odds were around 85% chances of opening a cover I could use, I averaged only around 27%.