Dauthi's Token Journal - Legendary Tokens Don't Work

Dauthi

I was having some really bad luck, so bad I decided to start taking it down in a journal in the hope that I could show D3 why their luck based legendary token system is not working. I decided to post this in the forums and interactively add my extraordinarily bad pulls over time. This is what I have recorded since I started. I will add any 5* pulls if I ever get them.

Here is my roster of 4*s

Maxed Covers

X-Force - 5/5/3
Invisible Woman - 3/5/5
Elektra - 5/3/5
Thor - 5/3/5
Hulkbuster - 5/5/3
Kingpin - 3/5/5

Covers I need from least to most

Starlord -- 4/5/4 - red needed
Nick Fury-- 2/5/5 - yellow needed
Antman --- 5/2/5 - blue needed
Jean Grey - 3/2/5 - blue/purple needed
Carnage -- 5/0/5 - black needed
Deadpool - 5/1/2 - black/purple needed
Fantastic - 3/2/3 -- blue/yellow/black needed
Thing

---

0/2/5 - red/yellow needed
Cyclops -- 2/4/1 -- red/blue/yellow needed
Sam W. - 0/1/3 --- yellow/blue/red needed
Red Hulk - 1/2/1 - red/green/purple needed
Iceman - 0/1/2 --- green/blue/purple needed
X-23

---

0/1/2 -- green/red/purple needed

57 total covers in game/ 28 needed - should have a 49% pull rate

My Reality

24 legendary tokens

3 x Nick Fury (blue)
2 x Nick Fury (Purple)
2 x Invisible Woman (blue)
1 x Invisible Woman (yellow)
1 x Invisible Woman (green)
1 x X-Force (green)
1 x X-Force (black)
1 x Thor (yellow)
1 x Kingpin (black)
1 x Kingpin (purple)
1 x Kingpin (yellow) Needed
1 x Thing (green)
1 x Deadpool (red)
1 x Jean Grey (green)
1 x Antman (purple) Needed
1 x Antman (yellow)
1 x Mr. Fantastic (blue) Needed
1 x Mr. Fantastic (black) Needed
1 x Cyclops (yellow) Needed
1 x Carnage (red)

Pull rate 24% of 49%

4*s from other tokens

1x X-Force (black)
1x Mr Fantastic (blue) Needed
1x Hulkbuster (blue)
1x Elektra (black)
1x Thing (yellow) Needed

Pull rate 40%

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How many months will it take until my pull rate averages out? Until then, me, and others with bad luck, get the short end of the stick. This directly impacts how well we can play the game until then.

Mawtful

I don't mean to belittle your efforts or anything but we've known that Tokens don't work for a while now; Legendary or otherwise.

Legendary tokens probably provide the best odds for the player, it's just that a roster that's mature enough to be earning Legendary Tokens regularly is likely to be already past the point where 50% of the possible pulls are "worthwhile". In this perspective, the problem then becomes: once you've got the "right" 13 covers for a character, any additional covers are useless. There are plenty of ways to resolve this, but I really can't be bothered suggesting anything anymore.

ammenell

Mawtful wrote:

[...]
There are plenty of ways to resolve this, but I really can't be bothered suggesting anything anymore.

i wonder what the suggestion board is for in the first place?
lots of good suggestions there, but to me it seems they are ignored for whatever reason.

perhaps its annoying to read about the work you have to do for token odds, scaling issues and other stuff that people actually care about while you are still not finished with that shiny new loading screen?

Pongie

Not sure how many legendary tokens I've pulled since I never kept track. But I do remember all the duplicates. Up to about 5 now and out of the possible 63 covers (22 4* in the game but I'm not count ghost rider yet), I only have 3 maxed. That should be 95% chance to pull something I need. I doubt I have opened 100 tokens to get the 5 duplicates already.

Malcrof

Think everyone is missing a key piece of information.. the legendary token pull rates are in no way cumulative. Each token is a separate entity. You have the same odds of pulling 5 starlords in a row, as you do in pulling 5 iceman's in a row.

There is no guarantee, nothing was ever promised..

All i seem to be able to pull from the tokens are Jean Grey (up to 9 sold now, shoulda built a dupe) .. and i need IW and Starlord covers! Would love some red hulk (finally got one from an LT yesterday)... but when i open one, i have no expectations.. as it is a gamble.. all tokens are.

You want a guaranteed cover? make sure you have 1 of it, and spend 2500 hp.

Orion

Malcrof wrote:

You want a guaranteed cover? make sure you have 1 of it, and spend 2500 hp.

Exactly. And that's why everyone is saying the 4* transition and Legendary tokens are a joke. There's no way to get the covers you actually need without spending money. And that will cause the players to leave.

woopie

Orion wrote:

show previous quotes

Malcrof wrote:

You want a guaranteed cover? make sure you have 1 of it, and spend 2500 hp.

Exactly. And that's why everyone is saying the 4* transition and Legendary covers are a joke. There's no way to get the covers you actually need without spending money. And that will cause the players to leave.

Exactly, I don't remember if it was you or another member of Skrull that said it, but luck/chance/RNG is not progression. Until they update the methodology behind 4*s acquisitions, this is a strictly P2W game.

Vhailorx

Hate to say it Dauthi, but your data suggest that leg tokens are very much working as intended.

Random rewards are a way to extend then life of a game (i.e. slow down the rate at which players accrue assets) without adding new content. By that standard, your numbers are even better than expected!

(not that any of this is new info.)

simonsez

Malcrof wrote:

All i seem to be able to pull from the tokens are Jean Grey (up to 9 sold now

Wow, imagine how many Jeans you would've gotten if token pulls clustered... thank goodness they're random

Orion

woopie wrote:

Exactly, I don't remember if it was you or another member of Skrull that said it, but luck/chance/RNG is not progression. Until they update the methodology behind 4*s acquisitions, this is a strictly P2W game.

That wasn't me, but I agree with it 100%. I've been way behind on the Legendary token pulls rates, and every time I open another worthless Legendary token I get more and more frustrated. I spent 3 days on a PvE for what? 1000 ISO? Where's my progression I'm supposed to be getting?

madok

Orion wrote:

That wasn't me, but I agree with it 100%. I've been way behind on the Legendary token pulls rates, and every time I open another worthless Legendary token I get more and more frustrated. I spent 3 days on a PvE for what? 1000 ISO? Where's my progression I'm supposed to be getting?

You are slowly progressing to the dark side of the force. Not sure if that is the progression you want but it is what you get.

Malcrof

simonsez wrote:

show previous quotes

Malcrof wrote:

All i seem to be able to pull from the tokens are Jean Grey (up to 9 sold now

Wow, imagine how many Jeans you would've gotten if token pulls clustered... thank goodness they're random

They don't cluster, as i open them the second i get them. She is just averaging 1 out of every 6 or 7..

simonsez

Malcrof wrote:

They don't cluster, as i open them the second i get them. She is just averaging 1 out of every 6 or 7..

You're assuming clustering would have to be time-based. Yeah, it would make the most sense to do it that way, which is probably means they'd do it some alternative way.

smkspy

I've noticed a trend with my pulls lately of giving me the 4 stars that I don't have roster. Luck of the draw maybe, but I find it curious that my last five pulls have all been characters that I'll have to pay money for HP to roster (fcap, wf, cyclops, Jean grey, px). Now I'm in the 900 HP per spot territory, can't even buy the cheap $5 option to roster them.

My next three draws will probably be the final three characters that I don't have. IW, IM, and HB.

Edit: I don't mind spending a bit to roster people, but wish they have a cheaper option to do so. It already costs a fortune if you want to buy their powers, a cheap roster spots for everyone would encourage buying those power probably.

puppychow

smkspy wrote:

I've noticed a trend with my pulls lately of giving me the 4 stars that I don't have roster. Luck of the draw maybe, but I find it curious that my last five pulls have all been characters that I'll have to pay money for HP to roster (fcap, wf, cyclops, Jean grey, px). Now I'm in the 900 HP per spot territory, can't even buy the cheap $5 option to roster them.

My next three draws will probably be the final three characters that I don't have. IW, IM, and HB.

Edit: I don't mind spending a bit to roster people, but wish they have a cheaper option to do so. It already costs a fortune if you want to buy their powers, a cheap roster spots for everyone would encourage buying those power probably.

I was paying 1,050 hp per slot until D3 finally capped it at 1k. While it stinks paying that much, 1k is still less than paying 2.5k to buy a cover directly. I can't imagine people max covered newly released 4* by buying covers and then iso too.

lukewin

My Legendary Tokens work. I tap on it and it gives me a cover of one of the characters listed in the odds table.

rdvargas1

How many times do people need to be told how statistics work? The draw rates are clearly listed in the legendary token section. Your extremely limited sample size proves nothing except what you have drawn. Yes it sucks to get duplicates but that's what happens with rngs and all token pulls operate with the same mechanic. Think of all the 1 2 and 3* star duplicates you pull, the same thing logically happens with 4*s as you earn more.

Pylgrim

Mawtful wrote:

I don't mean to belittle your efforts or anything but we've known that Tokens don't work for a while now; Legendary or otherwise.

Legendary tokens probably provide the best odds for the player, it's just that a roster that's mature enough to be earning Legendary Tokens regularly is likely to be already past the point where 50% of the possible pulls are "worthwhile". In this perspective, the problem then becomes: once you've got the "right" 13 covers for a character, any additional covers are useless. There are plenty of ways to resolve this, but I really can't be bothered suggesting anything anymore.

The problem with LTs is their scarcity. When you get a run of bad luck with say 20 heroic (or similar value) tokens, you can make up those 20 tokens in matter of days, if you luck turns. 20 bad draws from LTs will take you months to overturn (if it happens at all). Yeah, odds are good, but there will still be a significant amount of people screwed by luck. For all the effort necessary to get a single LT, this shouldn't happen.

Malcrof wrote:

Think everyone is missing a key piece of information.. the legendary token pull rates are in no way cumulative. Each token is a separate entity. You have the same odds of pulling 5 starlords in a row, as you do in pulling 5 iceman's in a row.

There is no guarantee, nothing was ever promised..

As I keep saying, no one here is misunderstanding chance or futilely believing that every single person should have good luck. The point is that the difference in progression allowed by a difference of LT pulls between someone experiencing a good luck run vs someone experiencing a bad luck run is devastating. Something as four 4* covers of difference more could make a big difference, especially on the long term. For someone with really bad luck as yours truly, I'm something around 14, FOURTEEN, 4* covers behind someone with average luck, let alone those with good luck. Can you imagine the difference in our progression?

From 23 LTs, I have drawn 6 IWs and 5 XFs, plus 7 other assorted covers that I didn't need. The cinch? I actually need over 80% of the total amount of existing 4* covers. I've basically been rolling a 6-sided die 23 times, and getting a 1, 18 times. Is it freak, bizarre luck that doesn't properly reflect the given odds? For sure. But, is it a horrible, horrible, embittering, but more importantly, avoidable player experience that impedes progression for 2-year loyal players? Tinykitty yeah.

rdvargas1 wrote:

How many times do people need to be told how statistics work? The draw rates are clearly listed in the legendary token section. Your extremely limited sample size proves nothing except what you have drawn. Yes it sucks to get duplicates but that's what happens with rngs and all token pulls operate with the same mechanic. Think of all the 1 2 and 3* star duplicates you pull, the same thing logically happens with 4*s as you earn more.

How many times do pompous know-it-alls need to be told that this is not about statistics but about fairness? That the scarcity and difficulty to acquire of LTs make them completely incomparable to any other token?

Xenoberyll

Makes me wonder, has there ever been a programmer in the community who got a look at the source code?

OneLastGambit

Pylgrim wrote:

show previous quotes

Mawtful wrote:

I don't mean to belittle your efforts or anything but we've known that Tokens don't work for a while now; Legendary or otherwise.

Legendary tokens probably provide the best odds for the player, it's just that a roster that's mature enough to be earning Legendary Tokens regularly is likely to be already past the point where 50% of the possible pulls are "worthwhile". In this perspective, the problem then becomes: once you've got the "right" 13 covers for a character, any additional covers are useless. There are plenty of ways to resolve this, but I really can't be bothered suggesting anything anymore.

The problem with LTs is their scarcity. When you get a run of bad luck with say 20 heroic (or similar value) tokens, you can make up those 20 tokens in matter of days, if you luck turns. 20 bad draws from LTs will take you months to overturn (if it happens at all). Yeah, odds are good, but there will still be a significant amount of people screwed by luck. For all the effort necessary to get a single LT, this shouldn't happen.

show previous quotes

Malcrof wrote:

Think everyone is missing a key piece of information.. the legendary token pull rates are in no way cumulative. Each token is a separate entity. You have the same odds of pulling 5 starlords in a row, as you do in pulling 5 iceman's in a row.

There is no guarantee, nothing was ever promised..

As I keep saying, no one here is misunderstanding chance or futilely believing that every single person should have good luck. The point is that the difference in progression allowed by a difference of LT pulls between someone experiencing a good luck run vs someone experiencing a bad luck run is devastating. Something as four 4* covers of difference more could make a big difference, especially on the long term. For someone with really bad luck as yours truly, I'm something around 14, FOURTEEN, 4* covers behind someone with average luck, let alone those with good luck. Can you imagine the difference in our progression?

From 23 LTs, I have drawn 6 IWs and 5 XFs, plus 7 other assorted covers that I didn't need. The cinch? I actually need over 80% of the total amount of existing 4* covers. I've basically been rolling a 6-sided die 23 times, and getting a 1, 18 times. Is it freak, bizarre luck that doesn't properly reflect the given odds? For sure. But, is it a horrible, horrible, embittering, but more importantly, avoidable player experience that impedes progression for 2-year loyal players? Tinykitty yeah.

show previous quotes

rdvargas1 wrote:

How many times do people need to be told how statistics work? The draw rates are clearly listed in the legendary token section. Your extremely limited sample size proves nothing except what you have drawn. Yes it sucks to get duplicates but that's what happens with rngs and all token pulls operate with the same mechanic. Think of all the 1 2 and 3* star duplicates you pull, the same thing logically happens with 4*s as you earn more.

How many times do pompous know-it-alls need to be told that this is not about statistics but about fairness? That the scarcity and difficulty to acquire of LTs make them completely incomparable to any other token?

I'm gonna play a little devils advocate here, I'm not entering the debate on randomness here that's been done enough. Why should the devs change the system? As a player it feels totally unfair, but as a business watching all those dollars roll in must be insanely satisfying. Here's the worst part - despite the complaints people carry on paying and playing. The only way you change anything in a world driven entirely by money (and not satisfaction) is to stop that flow of money. Why should devs change something when people are still paying or playing? They shouldn't. No change is necessary (from their perspective) until it is forced by a lack of usage. Want to make a statement and enforce change? Do it how they do in real industry - stage a strike.

I know the devs are also players (and enjoy their own product) but you are a tad delusional if you believe they will choose the product over the money they make from it.

As a player (or consumer) you have only two choices really - 1. play and accept the game as it is and also accept that any changes will only happen when the devs feel it benefits the business. Or 2. assume that the game will never be as you wish it to be and find something else.

It sounds tinykitty and I know the statement is a bit tinykittyish but its the unfortunate truth, I have abandoned many games in the past once I realised it did not meet my expectations and should this one do the same I will do the same again. At the minute I can accept it's drawbacks but then I'm only 125 days in yet.

Xenoberyll

OneLastGambit wrote:

I'm gonna play a little devils advocate here, I'm not entering the debate on randomness here that's been done enough. Why should the devs change the system? As a player it feels totally unfair, but as a business watching all those dollars roll in must be insanely satisfying.

D3 already has a rep for being a noob developer that struck gold with a great license. The bad rep for being greedy will only grow the more the balance between frustration and love for the game tips. For now it works for them but... a devil's advocate probably sees the potential for disaster.