I take issue with randomness of pulls, please prove me wrong

Xenoberyll

Bowgentle wrote:

I pulled 3 5* covers from about 50 LTs

took me 65 to get 3 and don't you dare come here saying your luck is worse than mine! I have the WORST! Nobody has it worse than me, you get that?! #humanpsyche

I just wish somebody could make D3 understand that a chance at something is actually worse than just getting something and that handing out tokens to everyone doesn't mean everyone gets the same.

UncleSmed

My lick is terrible.. I've pulled two OML covers (black and red) from about twelve LTs and had to sell them both to remain viable in pvp (still working 3*s up from 140 to 166) so I can continue to cover my 4*s
I've also received three Xforce Wolvie black covers.. the only 4* cover of them all I have maxed.

Terrible.

Ps - I am now nine covers from maxing out all of the three stars covers... so only 4*s for progression for me now. If not from LTs, then where?

OneLastGambit

Pylgrim wrote:

OneLastGambit wrote:

Pylgrim wrote:

Welp, I'm out. I tried and tried to make understood my point that regardless of odds being natural, rigged, or just buggy, chance just shouldn't play a defining part at the highest level of effort and commitment; especially not when the scarcity of draws, coupled with the compounding nature of progression make even a short run of not especially good or bad luck can cause enormous dis/advantage between players, let's not even mention long runs of especially good or bad luck.

But no, people just have to be right and make it all about the odds to be able to show off how smart they are and how much better they understand chance. Who cares about the fringe case of the poor sap that missed an 80% chance of success 16 out of 20 times and whose progression got crippled literally by months, nor anyone else suffering from bad luck. Thanks a lot for showing the devs that change in this area is not necessary as they can count with a small army of genius statisticians (real or wannabe) who will be quick to silence dissension and ridicule discontent even though there's no real gain for them out of it.

Edit. Today I got two more LTs. X-Force and IW, I tinykitty you not.

I actually agree that sometimes I'm unhappy with the RNG (my heroic token pulls are a complete joke) I was only debating the point that people thing the RNG is broken (which the thread title confirms as the topic). I actually think that they could rectify the issue with having more specific covers to be won as prizes rather than tokens and by also having a blank token which can be applied to whichever ability you want. I think both of those might help.

My last 5 Legendary pulls have been - Phoenix , surfer carnage Star-Lord Thing . Of those 2 were completely new characters (carnage and Surfer) and the rest were all needed.

Also I have yet to see even 1 XFW legendary token in over 30 legendary tokens despite people claiming he is the most common.

You say that you sometimes are unhappy with the RNG, but look at those LT pulls. The only thing I don't need out of them is the SL. So while I was happily opening XFs and IWs and the such, you got 4 covers ahead of me, by no merit or additional effort from your part. Those 4 covers will increase your chances of getting more covers and LTs than I in the future months, and so it will keep going. If you are "unhappy" over your heroic pulls (which are given out like candy), try to think the proper adjective for how I feel and consider whether any player in my position should feel like this.

Was your luck just as bad when making the 3* transition like I am? You see while I am future proofed by my good relatively good LT pulls they don't help me much now and my awful heroic luck is stalling my transition to 3* and making me just as frustrated as you are in your transition. I get your frustration, honestly I do. I even have made suggestions for how this can be alleviated in a way which is satisfactory for players and devs a like. It probably sounds amazing to get so many different 4* characters while you are pulling IW and XFW but guess what? You have usable characters way way way before I ever will because I'm busy picking up another new cover for another new character which is unusable to me. I'd rather pick up all the covers for one and move onto another because then you have a useful character - I have 12 roster slots taken up by characters that are useless to me until I get at least another 7 covers each for them, and everytime I pull another new character (I'm still missing Ice-Man, IW, GR) it compounds the problem further. Honestly speaking I would much rather get a finished character - I'd even take IW because any finished character is better than 12 unfinished. KP is my closest and semi usable 4/5* with 7 covers - other than that I have 12 useless ones.

Everyone who pulls a LT has a problem of some sort, yours is different than mine but no less of a problem.

NighteyesGrisu

UncleSmed wrote:

My lick is terrible.. I've pulled two OML covers (black and red) from about twelve LTs and had to sell them both to remain viable in pvp (still working 3*s up from 140 to 166) so I can continue to cover my 4*s
I've also received three Xforce Wolvie black covers.. the only 4* cover of them all I have maxed.

Terrible.

Ps - I am now nine covers from maxing out all of the three stars covers... so only 4*s for progression for me now. If not from LTs, then where?

most wouldn't call 2 5* from 12 pulls bad luck, but I see your point

As for getting 4*, I'd say PVP progression would be your best bet. At least that's where I get most of my 4* from

PeterGibbons316

UncleSmed wrote:

My lick is terrible.. I've pulled two OML covers (black and red) from about twelve LTs and had to sell them both to remain viable in pvp (still working 3*s up from 140 to 166) so I can continue to cover my 4*s
I've also received three Xforce Wolvie black covers.. the only 4* cover of them all I have maxed.

Terrible.

Ps - I am now nine covers from maxing out all of the three stars covers... so only 4*s for progression for me now. If not from LTs, then where?

As much as I hate this mentality, it illustrates Pylgrim's point very well. Luck-based progression is ****. If we could work for certain specific rewards that were useful to us you wouldn't see people complaining about hitting the lottery (pulling 2/12 5*s) or falling short (pulling mostly useless tokens.) People could put their effort toward the rewards that benefited them, and not have to rely on a "lucky" draw.

Pylgrim

Bowgentle wrote:

Pylgrim wrote:

You say that you sometimes are unhappy with the RNG, but look at those LT pulls. The only thing I don't need out of them is the SL. So while I was happily opening XFs and IWs and the such, you got 4 covers ahead of me, by no merit or additional effort from your part. Those 4 covers will increase your chances of getting more covers and LTs than I in the future months, and so it will keep going. If you are "unhappy" over your heroic pulls (which are given out like candy), try to think the proper adjective for how I feel and consider whether any player in my position should feel like this.

If you pull two 5* covers in a row, will you stop mentioning just how unlucky you are? Please?

I pulled 3 5* covers from about 50 LTs, and have pulled my millionth 4or and HB on Sunday from two tokens, but I don't talk about that in 5 threads, daily.

Yes, luck-based progression sucks, but you're not the only one getting screwed over.

Wow, thanks for the sanctimonious and self-entitled reproach that entirely misses the point. You are really stoic for not complaining about opening repeat HBs! Except that... how many 4* covers are you missing? Give me a percentage, here. How close it is to 80%, c'mon. Show me that you are not dismissing my bad luck from a position of better luck lest you be exposed as a massive privileged hypocrite.

By the way, how would two 5*s in a row even out approximately 14 4* covers missed, from the expected average? Hitting two 10% chances in a row is nowhere near mathematically corresponding to missing 80% 18 times out of 23. As you surely have seen me saying tens of times, it'd take me at least 2 months of straight good luck (pulling only 4* covers I need) to start to even out, without considering the progression missed in the mean time. But you know what? Even if I got those 2 months of awesome luck starting today, even if I got 3 or 5 months, I'd still believe and claim that the system is inherently unfair and that no one (even if it's not me) should get to feel like being crapped by luck, in spite of their efforts.

You think I enjoy having to repeat this every day? The only reason I keep doing it is because people like you, who have nothing to gain from pushing down my (and everybody else in my position's) plea, other than feeling smugly good about themselves. I only keep repeating it to refute time after time every new pompous know-it-all that without reading the thread come to belittle everybody for "not understanding how chance works". Happier would I be if I only had to state it once.

Also, for you information, since it seems that you have also skipped when I've said it, I've never implied that I'm the only one getting screwed. I am just the worst case that I know of, which is useful when it comes to refuting those who'd posit that the impact of luck in 4* progression is barely existent. I'm not asking the devs to personally compensate me as many do, I want this changed for everybody experiencing this awful luck now and in the future. Which may be you someday, you know.

OneLastGambit wrote:

Was your luck just as bad when making the 3* transition like I am? You see while I am future proofed by my good relatively good LT pulls they don't help me much now and my awful heroic luck is stalling my transition to 3* and making me just as frustrated as you are in your transition. I get your frustration, honestly I do. I even have made suggestions for how this can be alleviated in a way which is satisfactory for players and devs a like. It probably sounds amazing to get so many different 4* characters while you are pulling IW and XFW but guess what? You have usable characters way way way before I ever will because I'm busy picking up another new cover for another new character which is unusable to me. I'd rather pick up all the covers for one and move onto another because then you have a useful character - I have 12 roster slots taken up by characters that are useless to me until I get at least another 7 covers each for them, and everytime I pull another new character (I'm still missing Ice-Man, IW, GR) it compounds the problem further. Honestly speaking I would much rather get a finished character - I'd even take IW because any finished character is better than 12 unfinished. KP is my closest and semi usable 4/5* with 7 covers - other than that I have 12 useless ones.

Everyone who pulls a LT has a problem of some sort, yours is different than mine but no less of a problem.

Yours definitely is a problem, that of dilution of odds due the ever-expanding pool of characters, but it is slightly different and requires a different solution than the issue I keep referring to. For example, you are going wide and would prefer to go tall, while I'm not going anywhere as wide as I need, while going so tall that a big percentage of my pulls is wasted. Bad luck works in different ways for us.

I'd dare say that many of the problems right now in the game are caused by the 3* and 4* progression being addressed by the same mechanics and behaviours which demands an impossible balance that is ultimately unsatisfactory for all parties: "Not too much that the 3*s transitioners bolt through their transition, but not so little that the 4* transitioners are almost stopped by it." As it is, only the luckier people in each camp (or the richer, able to increase their odds by sheer volume of drawing) are the ones progressing satisfactorily.

3* and 4* progression definitely need to be compartmentalised to address their specific needs more efficiently.

OneLastGambit

Pylgrim wrote:

Bowgentle wrote:

Pylgrim wrote:

You say that you sometimes are unhappy with the RNG, but look at those LT pulls. The only thing I don't need out of them is the SL. So while I was happily opening XFs and IWs and the such, you got 4 covers ahead of me, by no merit or additional effort from your part. Those 4 covers will increase your chances of getting more covers and LTs than I in the future months, and so it will keep going. If you are "unhappy" over your heroic pulls (which are given out like candy), try to think the proper adjective for how I feel and consider whether any player in my position should feel like this.

If you pull two 5* covers in a row, will you stop mentioning just how unlucky you are? Please?

I pulled 3 5* covers from about 50 LTs, and have pulled my millionth 4or and HB on Sunday from two tokens, but I don't talk about that in 5 threads, daily.

Yes, luck-based progression sucks, but you're not the only one getting screwed over.

Wow, thanks for the sanctimonious and self-entitled reproach that entirely misses the point. You are really stoic for not complaining about opening repeat HBs! Except that... how many 4* covers are you missing? Give me a percentage, here. How close it is to 80%, c'mon. Show me that you are not dismissing my bad luck from a position of better luck lest you be exposed as a massive privileged hypocrite.

By the way, how would two 5*s in a row even out approximately 14 4* covers missed, from the expected average? Hitting two 10% chances in a row is nowhere near mathematically corresponding to missing 80% 18 times out of 23. As you surely have seen me saying tens of times, it'd take me at least 2 months of straight good luck (pulling only 4* covers I need) to start to even out, without considering the progression missed in the mean time. But you know what? Even if I got those 2 months of awesome luck starting today, even if I got 3 or 5 months, I'd still believe and claim that the system is inherently unfair and that no one (even if it's not me) should get to feel like being crapped by luck, in spite of their efforts.

You think I enjoy having to repeat this every day? The only reason I keep doing it is because people like you, who have nothing to gain from pushing down my (and everybody else in my position's) plea, other than feeling smugly good about themselves. I only keep repeating it to refute time after time every new pompous know-it-all that without reading the thread come to belittle everybody for "not understanding how chance works". Happier would I be if I only had to state it once.

Also, for you information, since it seems that you have also skipped when I've said it, I've never implied that I'm the only one getting screwed. I am just the worst case that I know of, which is useful when it comes to refuting those who'd posit that the impact of luck in 4* progression is barely existent. I'm not asking the devs to personally compensate me as many do, I want this changed for everybody experiencing this awful luck now and in the future. Which may be you someday, you know.

OneLastGambit wrote:

Was your luck just as bad when making the 3* transition like I am? You see while I am future proofed by my good relatively good LT pulls they don't help me much now and my awful heroic luck is stalling my transition to 3* and making me just as frustrated as you are in your transition. I get your frustration, honestly I do. I even have made suggestions for how this can be alleviated in a way which is satisfactory for players and devs a like. It probably sounds amazing to get so many different 4* characters while you are pulling IW and XFW but guess what? You have usable characters way way way before I ever will because I'm busy picking up another new cover for another new character which is unusable to me. I'd rather pick up all the covers for one and move onto another because then you have a useful character - I have 12 roster slots taken up by characters that are useless to me until I get at least another 7 covers each for them, and everytime I pull another new character (I'm still missing Ice-Man, IW, GR) it compounds the problem further. Honestly speaking I would much rather get a finished character - I'd even take IW because any finished character is better than 12 unfinished. KP is my closest and semi usable 4/5* with 7 covers - other than that I have 12 useless ones.

Everyone who pulls a LT has a problem of some sort, yours is different than mine but no less of a problem.

Yours definitely is a problem, that of dilution of odds due the ever-expanding pool of characters, but it is slightly different and requires a different solution than the issue I keep referring to. For example, you are going wide and would prefer to go tall, while I'm not going anywhere as wide as I need, while going so tall that a big percentage of my pulls is wasted. Bad luck works in different ways for us.

I'd dare say that many of the problems right now in the game are caused by the 3* and 4* progression being addressed by the same mechanics and behaviours which demands an impossible balance that is ultimately unsatisfactory for all parties: "Not too much that the 3*s transitioners bolt through their transition, but not so little that the 4* transitioners are almost stopped by it." As it is, only the luckier people in each camp (or the richer, able to increase their odds by sheer volume of drawing) are the ones progressing satisfactorily.

3* and 4* progression definitely need to be compartmentalised to address their specific needs more efficiently.

I think the point I was trying to emphasize is that in order to fix your problem it would make my problem worse and vice-versa. Unless they introduce something which gives more control over WHAT you win from your LT (which they obviously wont since it would eat their business model) then there is no way to satisfy all parties and solve both problems.

I like the idea proposed by aesthetocyst in the suggestions forum (which is fairly realistic as well) and also like the idea of a blank cover as well which does not have a colour and can be used for whichever colour you need for that character, however this would not solve the problem of getting covers for a character you have completed. Perhaps even a reasonable re-sale value would cushion the blow - sell for 5000 iso/75hp/10cp instead of getting a slap in the face like we currently get.

Pylgrim

OneLastGambit wrote:

I think the point I was trying to emphasize is that in order to fix your problem it would make my problem worse and vice-versa. Unless they introduce something which gives more control over WHAT you win from your LT (which they obviously wont since it would eat their business model) then there is no way to satisfy all parties and solve both problems.

I like the idea proposed by aesthetocyst in the suggestions forum (which is fairly realistic as well) and also like the idea of a blank cover as well which does not have a colour and can be used for whichever colour you need for that character, however this would not solve the problem of getting covers for a character you have completed. Perhaps even a reasonable re-sale value would cushion the blow - sell for 5000 iso/75hp/10cp instead of getting a slap in the face like we currently get.

I got your point. Lack of compartmentalisation is what makes it so that fixing a problem for one camp likely means worsening it for the other camp. More specifically, the 3* pool of characters is already large, so increasing your chances of obtaining more 4*s that you don't have, rather than helping, will just further water down your odds of getting what you need. Compartmentalising would mean decreasing odds of getting 4*s when you are not actively seeking them which would increase your odds of drawing the 3*s necessary for your progression.

Another example of this is Iso. The voracious needs of Iso necessary level up 4*s would mean that if it was properly addressed while we share an ecosystem with the 3* (and 2*) transitioners, you guys would blaze through your progression.

Bowgentle

Pylgrim wrote:

Bowgentle wrote:

Pylgrim wrote:

You say that you sometimes are unhappy with the RNG, but look at those LT pulls. The only thing I don't need out of them is the SL. So while I was happily opening XFs and IWs and the such, you got 4 covers ahead of me, by no merit or additional effort from your part. Those 4 covers will increase your chances of getting more covers and LTs than I in the future months, and so it will keep going. If you are "unhappy" over your heroic pulls (which are given out like candy), try to think the proper adjective for how I feel and consider whether any player in my position should feel like this.

If you pull two 5* covers in a row, will you stop mentioning just how unlucky you are? Please?

I pulled 3 5* covers from about 50 LTs, and have pulled my millionth 4or and HB on Sunday from two tokens, but I don't talk about that in 5 threads, daily.

Yes, luck-based progression sucks, but you're not the only one getting screwed over.

Wow, thanks for the sanctimonious and self-entitled reproach

You're welcome.

Nick441234

I got 3 Silver Surfer covers in my first 4 pulls. My last 3 have consisted of a Starlord and Mr Fantastic twice! The picks are definitely not random!

simonsez

nick_chicane wrote:

My last 3 have consisted of a Starlord and Mr Fantastic twice!

My last 4 were two SLs and two MrFs. Welcome to the club.

Malcrof

This is Rulk week! My 1/2/1 rulk is up to 3/4/2 now. They did throw an X-23 in the middle , but finally, a cluster i am loving!

puppychow

I managed to pull a phoenix red out of 14 draws. 6 usable covers in all (rulk pink, iceman gr/pink, jean pink, 4cyk bl). I guess that makes me lucky!

OneLastGambit

Random character week for me, not had the same character twice this week. moderately interesting hulk , Iceman , Jean Grey

Two of those are brand new and I cannot roster them, not too bothered about losing slightly more interesting than paint drying hulk but dropping ice man will sting...

Nick441234

simonsez wrote:

nick_chicane wrote:

My last 3 have consisted of a Starlord and Mr Fantastic twice!

My last 4 were two SLs and two MrFs. Welcome to the club.

I'll be sure to refer back to this if my next cover is a Starlord!