I take issue with randomness of pulls, please prove me wrong

Helen keller
Helen keller Posts: 62 Match Maker
edited December 2015 in MPQ General Discussion
So I assume anyone that spends money on this game at one time or another has questioned if the pulls are manipulated, I am a newer player so I don't know if it's ever been responded to by devs, I'm sure it's been posted before, today I was lucky enough to have two LT tokens to pull, I said out loud before I pulled one "I bet it is a green or purple jean grey", of course it was green because I bought those covers to 5 the other day, next pull, no ****, I called it would be red carnage because that is the only other 4* cover I have 5 of, sure as the sun comes up, that's what it was, I laughed hysterically, what else could I do?
(I don't have many 4* with more than two covers/colors)


If I'm mistaken PLEASE enlighten me, because it is very discouraging and makes me feel like I'm being duped by the devs

If this topic has been beaten like a dead horse I am sorry for my ignorance
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Comments

  • TheWerebison
    TheWerebison Posts: 431 Mover and Shaker
    Well, to me, it sounds like you should be calling out the names of covers you DO need, with that kind of luck. icon_razz.gif

    Trust me, my 4/1/0 Prof X and my 8 green IW covers understand your feelings, though.
  • Helen keller
    Helen keller Posts: 62 Match Maker
    There just seems to be too many coincidences, but I'm sure if they were two covers I wanted I would've be here complaining about it
  • Crowl
    Crowl Posts: 1,580 Chairperson of the Boards
    Actually, if the system is random then there will be odd runs like this for some (or even most) people at one time or another.
  • Cousin Simpson
    Cousin Simpson Posts: 1,086 Chairperson of the Boards
    You might have a problem more serious than engineered pulls if D3 is able to listen to what you say out loud.
  • IceIX
    IceIX ADMINISTRATORS Posts: 4,320 Site Admin
    viewtopic.php?f=7&t=35335&start=20#p444205

    Specifically the paragraph after I talk about Vaults.
  • scottee
    scottee Posts: 1,610 Chairperson of the Boards
    People think true randomness isn't actually randomness. So if you think random token pulls aren't actually random, you're like most of the population. When they first made CD/MP3 players with a random function, people complained that repeated songs meant it wasn't truly random. So they now program them to not be random in order to "appear" random to the everyday person.

    Found this is a quick google search, but there's tons of articles that will tell you the same thing:

    https://telescoper.wordpress.com/2015/02/21/when-random-doesnt-look-random/
  • Helen keller
    Helen keller Posts: 62 Match Maker
    I'm glad I asked, thanks!
  • UncleSmed
    UncleSmed Posts: 75
    I long for days of more pure randomness to the tokens. Just the other day I was thinking I'd like to open an LT and get a flock of ducks appearing in game for me.
    Or to match a 5 of a kind and have pudding fall to replace the tiles.. mmm pudding
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    The debate rages on....


    In short:

    What is random? The actual definition of random is where everything has an equal chance of occurring. This means massive runs have equal chance of occurring to non-sequential runs. ALL things have equal chance of occurring at anytime in a true random system.

    What people interpret as random: a non-sequential and non-repeating pattern (yes I know that sounds like an oxymoron).

    Is the token pulls random? it seems to be to me.

    Is it fair? actually yes. There is nothing more fair to all participants than true randomness as it means everyone has an equal chance of getting something good or bad, nobody has an advantage. Hence why the lottery is so seductive.

    Is it desirable? this is where the wiggle room is. For those who benefit from the random system - yes..totally! For those which don't - Nope it completely sucks.
  • sinnerjfl
    sinnerjfl Posts: 1,275 Chairperson of the Boards
    Regarding the "true random is not possible with computers" argument, it is true to an extent but computers can get random pulls close enough to rolling a dice and such. It's not done in the same way (obviously) but typically you can expect "random" results.

    My only problem with the RNG in this game is that (token pulls especially) seem to happen in lucky "bunches" and then you're back to pulling garbage for 3 weeks. Ive noticed this pattern for a while (and im not the only one) and we shouldnt be able to see patterns with "random" results. Is D3/DU loading the dice somehow? It's possible and it can be done both ways, improving or reducing "lucky" pulls.

    Your RNG just doesnt feel random and it needs improvements.
  • PeterGibbons316
    PeterGibbons316 Posts: 1,063
    sinnerjfl wrote:
    we shouldnt be able to see patterns with "random" results. Is D3/DU loading the dice somehow? It's possible and it can be done both ways, improving or reducing "lucky" pulls.

    Your RNG just doesnt feel random and it needs improvements.
    The problem isn't that it doesn't feel random, the problem is that you don't understand what random should feel like.
  • jredd
    jredd Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
    i posted this awhile ago (probably not the first person who thought of it by any means) but my idea for tokens, especially legendaries, is to have a 'wheel of fortune' type spinner with three prize points. you cash in your token, the wheel spins (these guys love their animations right!). now by default you get the cover that lands in the middle arrow. if you like it, hit accept and away you go on your merry way. if you don't, or you already have that cover maxed, for a small fee (say 100 hp, 5cp, whatever) you can select one of the covers on the other 2 arrows.

    still random. but with a bit of a choice. and the devs get you spending in-game currency too.
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    PeterGibbons316 wrote:
    sinnerjfl wrote:
    we shouldnt be able to see patterns with "random" results. Is D3/DU loading the dice somehow? It's possible and it can be done both ways, improving or reducing "lucky" pulls.

    Your RNG just doesnt feel random and it needs improvements.
    The problem isn't that it doesn't feel random, the problem is that you don't understand what random should feel like.


    Quite possibly the most accurate and succinct method of describing this notion. ^^^
  • Nightglider1
    Nightglider1 Posts: 703 Critical Contributor
    scottee wrote:
    People think true randomness isn't actually randomness. So if you think random token pulls aren't actually random, you're like most of the population. When they first made CD/MP3 players with a random function, people complained that repeated songs meant it wasn't truly random. So they now program them to not be random in order to "appear" random to the everyday person.

    Found this is a quick google search, but there's tons of articles that will tell you the same thing:

    https://telescoper.wordpress.com/2015/02/21/when-random-doesnt-look-random/

    Yep. They changed "random" to "shuffle." First-world problems, I tell ya. icon_razz.gif
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    IceIX wrote:
    https://d3go.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=35335&start=20#p444205

    Specifically the paragraph after I talk about Vaults.
    Yes, we know what you said about randomness of pulls, but you also said the player who posted legendary token pull results that had a probability of 1 in 687 million was legit. I have a real hard time believing both could be true.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    scottee wrote:
    if you think random token pulls aren't actually random, you're like most of the population.
    Just because people think token pulls aren't random, doesn't mean they really are.
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2015
    simonsez wrote:
    IceIX wrote:
    https://d3go.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=35335&start=20#p444205

    Specifically the paragraph after I talk about Vaults.
    Yes, we know what you said about randomness of pulls, but you also said the player who posted legendary token pull results that had a probability of 1 in 687 million was legit. I have a real hard time believing both could be true.

    The odds of someone winning the lottery (UK) are 14million to 1 should we assume that whomever has won it has fixed it because it's such a longshot?

    or how about this...http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ilkes.html

    this lucky chap won the lottery twice with the same numbers - odds? 5trillion to one. Is this also a fix?

    Unlikely things do happen, unlikely is not impossible.

    Perhaps the best and irrefutable instance of something with astronomically long odds of something happening by chance is the creation of earth - odds? 10 to the power of 390/1 (sorry for the wording can't find a way to write it mathematically)

    Now that obviously is not a fix but it is so long that if we run a simulation of it happening again it would never happen again in the whole 13billion year lifespan of the universe.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    OneLastGambit wrote:
    The odds of someone winning the lottery (UK) are 14million to 1 should we assume that whomever has won it has fixed it because it's such a longshot?
    That's a really poor analogy from someone who works in analytics. Millions of players play the lottery. We didn't have millions of people trying to whale up a 5*. It's shouldn't be hard to understand that if a dozen people try to whale up a 5*, and one has a 1 in 687 million outcome, this is very different than 1 person out of millions winning the lottery.
  • rossmon
    rossmon Posts: 130 Tile Toppler
    jredd wrote:
    i posted this awhile ago (probably not the first person who thought of it by any means) but my idea for tokens, especially legendaries, is to have a 'wheel of fortune' type spinner with three prize points. you cash in your token, the wheel spins (these guys love their animations right!). now by default you get the cover that lands in the middle arrow. if you like it, hit accept and away you go on your merry way. if you don't, or you already have that cover maxed, for a small fee (say 100 hp, 5cp, whatever) you can select one of the covers on the other 2 arrows.

    still random. but with a bit of a choice. and the devs get you spending in-game currency too.

    I posted this yesterday in suggestions, but:
    rossmon wrote:
    They ought to create a "white" cover. If you get a cover you don't need, pay 10% of the cost to buy said cover, in order to change it to a white cover. This could be applied to any cover of the same character. so 250hp for a 4* or 79 command points for a 5*.

    Then, a higher percentage for character exchanges. maybe 30% for a gold cover that can be used on any character of it's class, 750hp or 217 command points. but probably preface this with you have to have either 5 covers in that color, or 13 in the character.

    So if you get that 6/7/8th black hulkbuster, you can trade it (and 250hp) instead of 2500 hp to buy a white hulkbuster cover that can be used for any hulkbuster.
    or if you get that 14/15/16th Invisible woman cover, you can trade it (and 750 hp) to buy a gold 4* cover that can apply to any other 4*.

    Since 5*s require command points instead of hero points, I applied the same ratio.

    This is a functionality that would make players happy, and lessen the frustration with the RNG, and still provide a flow of income to the developers.
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2015
    simonsez wrote:
    OneLastGambit wrote:
    The odds of someone winning the lottery (UK) are 14million to 1 should we assume that whomever has won it has fixed it because it's such a longshot?
    That's a really poor analogy from someone who works in analytics. Millions of players play the lottery. We didn't have millions of people trying to whale up a 5*. It's shouldn't be hard to understand that if a dozen people try to whale up a 5*, and one has a 1 in 687 million outcome, this is very different than 1 person out of millions winning the lottery.

    I was really just trying to highlight that long odds does not make it impossible. Of course the analogy is a little off, but so is the data set from which you are working. For instance you suggest that the token pulls are not random due to how many times you get the same (****) tokens, but are not accounting for all the time when people don't get the same **** tokens. Even if you just include my LT pulls in your data set the system looks much more fair and random, if you include everyone's it would probably be that also. I don't think we will ever get an answer to this problem from the devs but I think the best way to resolve it would be to use the 'apple method' :

    To change it so that token pulls just give you a different pull than your last one. then there will be no runs at all.

    EDIT: If the argument is that token pulls don't feel fair or desirable then I completely agree with that argument.

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