Vaults: Equal chance or hidden weights?

wuweird
wuweird Posts: 75 Match Maker
edited July 2015 in MPQ General Discussion
I've been hitting up the Independence Vault when I remember for the daily 50 HP deal. By my count there's an 19 in 50 chance of pulling a 3* or higher, so a 38% chance. From 5 pulls, I've gotten nothing but 2*s, which should be increasing the chance of a better reward each day, currently bringing it to a 42% chance. That I've yet to get a 3* cover makes me wonder if its not an even chance per item but that each has a hidden weight to it, effectively like the weightings on regular tokens.

How is everyone else finding the Vaults in terms of rewards?
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Comments

  • PuceMoose
    PuceMoose Posts: 1,445 Chairperson of the Boards
    I've opened 11 tokens from my independence vault so far, and 2 have been gold, and the rest two star junk. So far it's felt kind of like a slightly bumped heroic token - I've come to expect maybe one of out 8 heroic tokens to display gold. On the other hand, one of the two vault golds was one of my top five most wanted - my final Cyclops red, so that probably colors my overall satisfaction.
  • dr tinykittylove
    dr tinykittylove Posts: 1,459 Chairperson of the Boards
    I had 6 3*s out of 14 tokens. Oddly enough they're all from the top row on my vault.

    Unfortunately the only usable items in the vault for me are the hp and a blue Fury cover. Still have 4 chances left...
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Since the vault started, playing DDQ every day, nothing but 2*s and two 250HPs for me.

    DBC
  • mrcheddar
    mrcheddar Posts: 58 Match Maker
    OK so just checked, 8/50 pulled:
    Lady icon_thor.pngredtile.png, icon_invisiblewoman.pngyellowtile.png, icon_falcon.pngpurpletile.png, icon_mystique.pngbluetile.png, icon_cyclops.pngredtile.png.

    Three 2*.
    Wow :-O.

    Also pulled an icon_ironfist.pngblacktile.png from a standard token and a icon_hood.pngbluetile.png from a rocket & groot event token yesterday.

    I'm expecting nothing but 1 & 2 stars for the next few months as penance for such disgustingly good luck.
  • Omega Blacc
    Omega Blacc Posts: 69 Match Maker
    I've been wondering this myself.

    Personally, I think the vault only serves to show the rewards. I don't think there's an equal chance to receive a 4* as there is to get the 2* we always pull.

    "Whatever number you've collected" / 300 means little difference if the odds of nabbing 4* are lower than other cards. I doubt it's a fair 1/300 chance per card.

    That's why I'm not hoarding. I'd rather get what I can get at that moment. I could hoard 297 tokens and probably not pull all the 4* rewards by redeeming them at once.

    I can't imagine waiting that long for vault rewards. No thanks.
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    The ID4 vault was terrible.. outside of the 4*s, the only cover i needed in there was the Falcon yellow.

    11/50, and only 1 wasn't a 2*. (spent 50hp a day.. ugh). Nothing usable.
  • GrumpySmurf1002
    GrumpySmurf1002 Posts: 3,511 Chairperson of the Boards
    5 pulls on 19/50 means about an 8% chance of getting all 2*. Not exactly winning the (anti-)lottery.

    And because it will happen to someone, it's about a 0.4% chance of getting ten 2* characters in 10 pulls.
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:
    5 pulls on 19/50 means about an 8% chance of getting all 2*. Not exactly winning the (anti-)lottery.

    And because it will happen to someone, it's about a 0.4% chance of getting ten 2* characters in 10 pulls.

    my 3* cap yellow which was immediately sold came around token 6, so the 5 before it and the 5 after it were all 2*s
  • Phaserhawk
    Phaserhawk Posts: 2,676 Chairperson of the Boards
    This might have been mentioned but what I have seen with vaults and stockpiling is this.

    Current rotation like sweet or savory is locked in, but the out of cycle changes with every game load, and as I found out, every token pull. So I had 6 stockpiled and saw that my out of cycle had a **** ton of covers I needed so I pulled, got 1500 ISO, went for pull 2 and it was a whole new set and I had 0 out of 300. So just a heads up, don't cash stockpiled tokens as tempting as it may seem, wait until they cycle back in. Hopefully you'll have a good set of cards, because they stay and you can increase your odds with stockpiles if you need certain covers
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Equal chance. I've pulled 16, and of those, half were 3*.
  • OnesOwnGrief
    OnesOwnGrief Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
    Vaults are bugged currently which causes them to keep changing when you open and close them. Indy vault should do the same until the kill the bug that is causing this. So stockpiling works for now.
  • Chief270
    Chief270 Posts: 137
    Opened 15 indy vault tokens.. 6 gold (one 4* five 3*) and 9 silver.

    My vaults have never changed.. at least not at the top end of the rewards. So not sure what you guys are talking about lol
  • OnesOwnGrief
    OnesOwnGrief Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
    Chief270 wrote:
    Opened 15 indy vault tokens.. 6 gold (one 4* five 3*) and 9 silver.

    My vaults have never changed.. at least not at the top end of the rewards. So not sure what you guys are talking about lol
    When a vault goes out of the current rotation. When Indy vault ends, it should start resetting if you have any tokens left over.
  • Lidolas
    Lidolas Posts: 500
    My Independence Vault PUlls

    1000 imcoin.png
    icon_cyclops.pngblackflag.png
    icon_mystique.pngblackflag.png
    star.pngstar.pngicon_daken.pngblackflag.png
    icon_ares.pngyellowflag.png
    star.pngstar.pngicon_storm.pngyellowflag.png

    I'm happy with the vault icon_e_biggrin.gif
  • DFiPL
    DFiPL Posts: 2,405 Chairperson of the Boards
    wuweird wrote:
    I've been hitting up the Independence Vault when I remember for the daily 50 HP deal. By my count there's an 19 in 50 chance of pulling a 3* or higher, so a 38% chance. From 5 pulls, I've gotten nothing but 2*s, which should be increasing the chance of a better reward each day, currently bringing it to a 42% chance. That I've yet to get a 3* cover makes me wonder if its not an even chance per item but that each has a hidden weight to it, effectively like the weightings on regular tokens.

    How is everyone else finding the Vaults in terms of rewards?

    The Independence Vault started abysmally for me on PC, but I wound up with three 3* covers from ten pulls, albeit the icon_humantorch.pngstar.pngstar.pngstar.pngblackflag.png was utterly useless for me, as he already has five covers there (meh!).

    But it was nice timing for my icon_caroldanvers.png, whom I only just got my first cover for a couple weeks ago, and she's already up to 2/4/1. I don't use icon_mystique.png much, but the cover was useful for her as well. I've been tracking my taco pulls as well.

    My mobile independence vault abruptly quit with the daily deals, and has had only five total cracks at that vault. Two of those five pulls were usable 3* covers, though, so there's that. So that's, what, 5/15 overall from the Indy Vault? 33% pull rate out of 38% odds. /waggles hand

    On Steam: 24 tokens, x5 3* covers (one of which was unusable), 1500 ISO-8 (x2), 250 HP, health 5-pack, x15 2* covers. 9/24 overall, or 37.5% of my pulls. Overall odds of a non-2* prize are 41.667%, so a bit below average so far.

    On mobile: 16 tokens, x2 3* covers, 5000 ISO-8, 1500 ISO-8, x2 health 5-packs, 250 HP and 9 2*. 7/16 overall, or 43.75%. Slightly above average for the non-2* pull-rate, and my mobile roster actually needs the ISO-8 more than PC does, since I haven't started leveling my 3* past 104 on PC yet.

    16/40 for the taco vault between both accounts puts me squarely at a 40% draw rate. Still slightly below average, but I think at that point we're talking about one draw one way or the other.

    Still have yet to pull a 4*.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    there's already another topic for dis
  • snlf25
    snlf25 Posts: 947 Critical Contributor
    I was very happy with my ID4 Vault. I pulled 14 times:

    4* Professor X yellow - only my second cover for him, sorely needed
    3* Falcon blue - maxed but used for respec
    3* Captain Marvel black - maxed, sold
    3* Loki purple - maxed,sold
    3* Thor green - maxed, sold
    3* Cyclops black - 13th cover, 5/3/5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! icon_e_biggrin.gif
    8x250iso 2*s

    I was fricken ecstatic to finally max out Clops exactly how I wanted him, used every last iso I had and brought him to level 159. Very low on iso after a recent string of luck pulling 3* Magneto covers and a lackadaisical approach to DDQ over the last couple weeks because I haven't needed many of the enchiladas and frankly the time was better spent on pvp.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    From the vault I didn't clear I pulled 2 4* out of three pulls, but one of those 4* was 1000 hp which i would consider less than a 3*. The vault has treated me well so far.
  • evildead666
    evildead666 Posts: 32
    pulled 2 if dif colors 1000 hp 10000 iso on 4 tokens so seems to work well for me
  • evildead666
    evildead666 Posts: 32
    and that was today at one time been gettin lucky at certain time period my time right around midnight

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