Just opened up 7 tacos / tokens and got FOUR Moonstones.....

TLCstormz

and THREE Astonishing Wolverines!!!!!!!

Back to back to back.
Each within 5 seconds of one another.
On various token pages (Event Of The State, DDQ, Heroic, etc).
All were gold.

I am sorry, but that IS NOT just "bad luck." Even before this, I would never in a million years believe that the odds that D3 has listed are legit, but NOW.......lmao. Even moreso.

That is so messed up.

Unknown

Yeah that sucks but not surprising...I have such a huge disdain for moonstone just for that reason...she is the symbolic representation of token disappointment.

NorthernPolarity

Yeah, just the other day I was playing against M. Hawkeye. The AI did two match-4 horizontal cascades which caused an ENTIRE MATCH-5 ROW TO DROP HORIZONTALLY TWICE BACK TO BACK. I immediately took 7k damage the following turn and my 4or got one shot. Something fishy is going on here....

konannfriends

TLCstormz wrote:

and THREE Astonishing Wolverines!!!!!!!

Back to back to back.
Each within 5 seconds of one another.
On various token pages (Event Of The State, DDQ, Heroic, etc).
All were gold.

I am sorry, but that IS NOT just "bad luck." Even before this, I would never in a million years believe that the odds that D3 has listed are legit, but NOW.......lmao. Even moreso.

That is so messed up.

I would say token odds need to be buffed a bit but since were me getting 1 extra (possible two if you have the essential) a day I guess its ok but I wish 2* draw rates were pulled down a bit 6.0 for all those 2*s Is like a 85% chance you get a two star. It should be lowered to around 65%

Unknown

Come on now, I love it when I get a moonstone, I simply look at her amazing hot body art for 5 seconds before pressing the sell button. But jeez, whenever I get a bullseye or bagman......

dr tinykittylove

There was one pve that was handing out 2 tokens a day. And every single day, I got a matched set of mnmags and astonishing wolvie.

In my last season 10pack, I got 4 obws and 2 moonstones.

Rng is just weird.

Spencer75

TLCstormz wrote:

and THREE Astonishing Wolverines!!!!!!!

Back to back to back.
Each within 5 seconds of one another.
On various token pages (Event Of The State, DDQ, Heroic, etc).
All were gold.

I am sorry, but that IS NOT just "bad luck." Even before this, I would never in a million years believe that the odds that D3 has listed are legit, but NOW.......lmao. Even moreso.

That is so messed up.

It's bad luck, the world isn't conspiring against you.

Phillipes

Ofc it is just bad luck. I had nothing but 2* so far from DDQ.
It is not like whole universe is against you.
There is maybe 20 percent chance to pull a gold.
That is 1/5.
What is so inprobable on that ???

Unknown

i honestly used to think that i had a bad RNG going on. the following happened:

- two of my Alliance-Mates had a green Hulk in a Standard-Token at the same time. Not that bad actually, i know.....
- i was playing simultaneously with a friend of mine who had a yellow Mohawk out of a Deadpool-Taco. I was like "hey, i didn´t used mine until now!".... and what i got? A green Mohawk (yes, different color, but still fishy...)
- yesterday i played at the same time as my girlfriend. she pulled purple Moonstone out of a both of her Tacos. Guess what!? So did I...
- back when Grocket came out i had one of their Event-Tokens. An Alliance Member said that he finally pulled them out of a Event-Token of his. Aaaaaand- unsurprisingly i pulled them too (cannot remember the color now...)

Had other similar instances but i don't remember them as well as the aforementioned. I want to keep some kind of credibility

I have no tiny kitty idea what exactly is going on but i definitely think, that the odds of pulling a 3* is only partially RNG-based. It is not about pulling something similar with somebody, but pulling these things in a specific timespace.
And i also have to mention that within my last 50 Event- and Heroic-Tokens i had 3 (!) 3* covers. As a transitioner that reaaaaally sucks a tinykitty-buttocks. But hey! Out of 78 Standards i had 2 Mystique cover.... so.... yay..?

p.s.: in case you´re wondering: yes, i got my whole family and friends hooked to this game...

Unknown

TLCstormz wrote:

and THREE Astonishing Wolverines!!!!!!!

Back to back to back.
Each within 5 seconds of one another.
On various token pages (Event Of The State, DDQ, Heroic, etc).
All were gold.

I am sorry, but that IS NOT just "bad luck." Even before this, I would never in a million years believe that the odds that D3 has listed are legit, but NOW.......lmao. Even moreso.

That is so messed up.

Unknown

Big deal. None of my Tacos ever brought me anything but 2* heroes. Odds are what they are. But hey, complaining IS fun. I do it myself

GrumpySmurf1002

At 6.4% per Moonstone, it's about 1 in 62000 to pull 4 straight. Not common, but not exactly powerball odds either.

TLCstormz

Save the sarcasm please, clearly and very clearly may I add, EVERYONE knows that the odds of getting something good are very, very low.

The point is that pulling THAT MANY duplicates back to back within about 5 seconds of one another is almost mathematically impossible. I don't care that I got **** covers, but the likelihood of what actually happened to have happened.........

Where are the mathematicians at? I need them in here, because they're always doing statistics on this sort of thing. Help, pls.

Unknown

Well the post directly above yours has figures?

MarvelMan

DerDave wrote:

i honestly used to think that i had a bad RNG going on. the following happened:

- two of my Alliance-Mates had a green Hulk in a Standard-Token at the same time. Not that bad actually, i know.....
- i was playing simultaneously with a friend of mine who had a yellow Mohawk out of a Deadpool-Taco. I was like "hey, i didn´t used mine until now!".... and what i got? A green Mohawk (yes, different color, but still fishy...)
- yesterday i played at the same time as my girlfriend. she pulled purple Moonstone out of a both of her Tacos. Guess what!? So did I...
- back when Grocket came out i had one of their Event-Tokens. An Alliance Member said that he finally pulled them out of a Event-Token of his. Aaaaaand- unsurprisingly i pulled them too (cannot remember the color now...)

Had other similar instances but i don't remember them as well as the aforementioned. I want to keep some kind of credibility

I have no tiny kitty idea what exactly is going on but i definitely think, that the odds of pulling a 3* is only partially RNG-based. It is not about pulling something similar with somebody, but pulling these things in a specific timespace.
And i also have to mention that within my last 50 Event- and Heroic-Tokens i had 3 (!) 3* covers. As a transitioner that reaaaaally sucks a tinykitty-buttocks. But hey! Out of 78 Standards i had 2 Mystique cover.... so.... yay..?

p.s.: in case you´re wondering: yes, i got my whole family and friends hooked to this game...

You made coffee come out my nose when I got to the second half of the third bullet point......and I couldnt read the rest. Yes, I have a dirty mind but that was HILARIOUS.

GrumpySmurf1002

TLCstormz wrote:

Save the sarcasm please, clearly and very clearly may I add, EVERYONE knows that the odds of getting something good are very, very low.

The point is that pulling THAT MANY duplicates back to back within about 5 seconds of one another is almost mathematically impossible. I don't care that I got **** covers, but the likelihood of what actually happened to have happened.........

Where are the mathematicians at? I need them in here, because they're always doing statistics on this sort of thing. Help, pls.

Ignore my response above, those were Heroic odds, just noticed this is Tacos which are worse. Plus focusing on just Moonstone is the wrong way to tackle the question anyway.

Anyway:

Odds of any given 2* coming 3 consecutive times (except Bullseye): ~1 in 251
Odds of any given 2* coming 4 consecutive times (except Bullseye): ~1 in 3694

Functional equivalent:
Odds of being dealt 3 aces in 3 draws (with replacement and shuffling): 1 in 2197

Obviously a XXXXYYY pattern is going to be much rarer (multiply the two above), but you're still talking less than 1 in a million. Rare, but still not "saw bigfoot."

Edit: Just to elaborate this further, think about how many opportunities everyone has had to open 7 taco tokens in a row. If you've gotten all 14 to date, that's 8 different streaks. Now think about how many players have had 8 different streaks thus far. While the chances that you specifically saw XXXXYYY are small, the chances that 'someone' sees XXXXYYY approaches certainty every day.

san

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

TLCstormz wrote:

Save the sarcasm please, clearly and very clearly may I add, EVERYONE knows that the odds of getting something good are very, very low.

The point is that pulling THAT MANY duplicates back to back within about 5 seconds of one another is almost mathematically impossible. I don't care that I got **** covers, but the likelihood of what actually happened to have happened.........

Where are the mathematicians at? I need them in here, because they're always doing statistics on this sort of thing. Help, pls.

Ignore my response above, those were Heroic odds, just noticed this is Tacos which are worse. Plus focusing on just Moonstone is the wrong way to tackle the question anyway.

Anyway:

Odds of any given 2* coming 3 consecutive times (except Bullseye): ~1 in 251
Odds of any given 2* coming 4 consecutive times (except Bullseye): ~1 in 3694

Functional equivalent:
Odds of being dealt 3 aces in 3 draws (with replacement and shuffling): 1 in 2197

Obviously a XXXXYYY pattern is going to be much rarer (multiply the two above), but you're still talking less than 1 in a million. Rare, but still not "saw bigfoot."

This. And given that there are many, many people playing this game (probably 3600 on this forum), you're simply one of those. Nothing special. No conspiracy. Just perception bias.

MarvelMan

Pretty sure you are spoiling his fun with your statistical analysis. Stop it. I mean it. (anyone want a peanut?)

wirius

According to the devlopers, Moonstone is underrated. Apparently the devs don't play their own game. =P

MarvelMan

wirius wrote:

According to the devlopers, Moonstone is underrated. Apparendtly the devs don't play their own game.

Have you seen that artwork? She is nothing less than a 10.

mjh

I saved 6 taco tokens and decided to open them last night. All 2*s. Absurd.