Failure to Match: 100 PvP Matchups from Divine Champions
(TLDR summary at end of post)
In response to the Upcoming Versus Matchmaking Test thread, I decided to keep track of a string of 100 PvP matchups in the current Divine Champions PvP event.
My in game name is Vyn, and the end time for my slice is Wednesday (Feb 4th) at noon (EST). The data below was recorded around 5pm (EST) on Monday (Feb 2nd).
A screenshot of the first page of my roster can be found here.
Due to boosting, the actual top level characters on my roster are as follows:
Now for the 100 matchups, the columns in the table below are:
Another point worth noting is that during this entire experiment I was only attacked once. If I was given difficult matchups due to over performance, then I ought to be hit more often so I can drop my points/rank and receive more reasonable matchups.
Based on this record of matchups, I think it is fair to say that the matchmaking algorithm for Divine Champions is mostly ineffective. Hopefully this event was still running the old algorithm, because the results here sure look no different than that from previous PvP events.
Edit 1: The average level of the matchups was 140, when I ran a team with an average level of 88.
Edit 2: Added explanation of Rwrd column
Edit 3: TLDR summary — This is not a complaint about points or ranking, but a critique on a match making system that does not allow players to find reasonable matchups.
In response to the Upcoming Versus Matchmaking Test thread, I decided to keep track of a string of 100 PvP matchups in the current Divine Champions PvP event.
My in game name is Vyn, and the end time for my slice is Wednesday (Feb 4th) at noon (EST). The data below was recorded around 5pm (EST) on Monday (Feb 2nd).
A screenshot of the first page of my roster can be found here.
Due to boosting, the actual top level characters on my roster are as follows:
- L111 5/1/5 Thor 2*
- L111 4/4/3 Ares
- L80 0/2/1 Loki
- L74 3/5/5 Daken
- L74 1/0/1 Elektra
- L60 3/1/4 Storm 2*
- L60 0/1/0 Thor 3*
- L53 5/3/5 Storm 1*
- L50 3/5/4 Moonstone
- L45 4/1/4 Wolverine 1*
- L45 2/2/3 Human Torch 2*
- L40 5/5/3 Iron Man 1*
Now for the 100 matchups, the columns in the table below are:
- No.: Match number
- Pts: My point total at time of match
- Rnk: My rank at time of match
- Rwrd: Point reward for victory
- L1/L2/L3: Level of enemy's three characters
- Avg: Average level of enemy's three characters
No. Pts Rnk Rwrd L1 L2 L3 Avg Notes 001 229 143 022 141 094 141 125.3 002 229 143 032 141 127 153 140.3 003 229 143 024 120 080 120 106.7 004 229 143 027 141 134 141 138.7 005 229 143 035 125 249 191 188.3 006 225 146 033 237 156 156 183.0 007 225 146 034 228 209 166 201.0 008 225 146 022 052 040 043 045.0 Attacked 009 247 126 026 094 141 141 125.3 010 247 126 034 249 201 220 223.3 011 247 126 025 094 156 142 130.7 012 247 126 020 052 040 043 045.0 Attacked 013 266 114 037 230 166 166 187.3 014 266 114 020 141 166 141 149.3 015 266 114 019 094 141 117 117.3 016 266 114 029 215 166 252 211.0 017 266 114 037 141 141 094 125.3 018 262 118 023 141 094 094 109.7 019 262 118 029 141 152 094 129.0 020 262 118 024 143 153 153 149.7 021 262 118 035 141 075 141 119.0 022 262 118 044 228 270 405 301.0 023 260 120 029 141 141 141 141.0 024 260 120 025 405 225 270 300.0 025 260 120 026 141 094 141 125.3 026 260 120 024 143 190 094 142.3 027 260 120 036 141 117 141 133.0 028 256 123 028 141 141 104 128.7 029 256 123 037 094 209 141 148.0 030 256 123 035 141 131 094 122.0 031 256 123 023 198 166 210 191.3 032 256 123 036 249 166 166 193.7 033 251 128 028 168 141 161 156.7 034 251 128 022 141 094 094 109.7 035 251 128 039 141 177 141 153.0 036 251 128 026 110 166 270 182.0 037 251 128 034 141 141 141 141.0 038 246 134 029 141 094 114 116.3 039 246 134 027 129 099 075 101.0 040 246 134 029 105 094 127 108.7 041 246 134 028 094 141 141 125.3 042 246 134 023 141 117 102 120.0 043 241 136 029 114 141 094 116.3 044 241 136 027 141 094 094 109.7 045 241 136 028 141 156 153 150.0 046 241 136 033 141 091 094 108.7 047 241 136 030 141 104 094 113.0 048 235 141 029 111 146 141 132.7 049 235 141 025 249 141 166 185.3 050 235 141 036 141 094 105 113.3 051 235 141 022 086 060 081 075.7 Attacked 052 257 127 032 141 094 122 119.0 053 257 127 026 141 094 094 109.7 054 257 127 029 156 140 153 149.7 055 257 127 022 127 094 094 105.0 056 257 127 023 106 141 141 129.3 057 250 133 029 166 141 249 185.3 058 250 133 023 105 141 114 120.0 059 250 133 032 141 094 141 125.3 060 250 133 028 131 153 094 126.0 061 250 133 033 141 094 141 125.3 062 245 137 030 141 141 078 120.0 063 245 137 025 189 077 116 127.3 064 245 137 026 141 156 078 125.0 065 245 137 040 249 229 166 214.7 066 245 137 030 141 141 141 141.0 067 237 144 028 116 141 141 132.7 068 237 144 026 141 134 154 143.0 069 237 144 033 249 230 213 230.7 070 237 144 021 094 141 063 099.3 071 237 144 025 105 105 105 105.0 072 231 153 032 156 152 130 146.0 073 231 153 031 153 135 220 169.3 074 231 153 026 127 134 131 130.7 075 231 153 023 156 130 229 171.7 076 231 153 022 141 100 141 127.3 077 224 157 023 117 141 114 124.0 078 224 157 033 171 141 117 143.0 079 224 157 022 140 141 140 140.3 080 224 157 022 050 050 053 051.0 Attacked 081 246 141 022 105 063 120 096.0 082 246 141 023 141 141 117 133.0 083 246 141 038 249 166 213 209.3 084 246 141 043 206 141 153 166.7 085 246 141 029 141 141 141 141.0 086 240 145 025 087 095 141 107.7 087 240 145 027 094 141 141 125.3 --- 232 155 025 249 166 176 197.0 Retaliation node 088 232 155 029 141 094 114 116.3 089 232 155 023 141 086 094 107.0 090 232 155 030 147 166 249 187.3 091 227 159 026 141 141 166 149.3 092 227 159 025 122 094 131 115.7 093 227 159 027 141 127 117 128.3 094 227 159 027 141 094 094 109.7 095 227 159 027 141 114 141 132.0 096 220 166 040 180 127 141 149.3 097 220 166 030 191 166 166 174.3 098 220 166 024 141 094 094 109.7 099 220 166 030 141 094 141 125.3 100 220 166 033 094 122 141 119.0The number of matchups with average level less than or equal to the average level +X% of my top 3 characters was...
- Top 3 Avg Lvl +00%: 6
- Top 3 Avg Lvl +10%: 20
- Top 3 Avg Lvl +20%: 33
- Top 3 Avg Lvl +30%: 54
- Top 3 Avg Lvl +40%: 62
- Top 3 Avg Lvl +50%: 77
- Team Avg Lvl +00%: 4 (I attacked all 4)
- Team Avg Lvl +10%: 5
- Team Avg Lvl +20%: 9
- Team Avg Lvl +30%: 22
- Team Avg Lvl +40%: 34
- Team Avg Lvl +50%: 55
Another point worth noting is that during this entire experiment I was only attacked once. If I was given difficult matchups due to over performance, then I ought to be hit more often so I can drop my points/rank and receive more reasonable matchups.
Based on this record of matchups, I think it is fair to say that the matchmaking algorithm for Divine Champions is mostly ineffective. Hopefully this event was still running the old algorithm, because the results here sure look no different than that from previous PvP events.
Edit 1: The average level of the matchups was 140, when I ran a team with an average level of 88.
Edit 2: Added explanation of Rwrd column
Edit 3: TLDR summary — This is not a complaint about points or ranking, but a critique on a match making system that does not allow players to find reasonable matchups.
0
Comments
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Vynyv wrote:Another point worth noting is that during this entire experiment I was only attacked once
And I've got to say, I disagree with your conclusion that the matchmaking was flawed. Every roster has an equilibrium level that it should be expected to settle into. For a roster that only includes some half-leveled 2*s, a score in the mid to high 200s doesn't seem unreasonable.0 -
simonsez wrote:Then how was it your points kept going down? Based on point drops, you were attacked 16 times other than the one you noted.
Perhaps you missed this line of text while you were counting:Vynyv wrote:My point total drops periodically because I had to tank battles to conserve iso-8.simonsez wrote:And I've got to say, I disagree with your conclusion that the matchmaking was flawed. Every roster has an equilibrium level that it should be expected to settle into. For a roster that only includes some half-leveled 2*s, a score in the mid to high 200s doesn't seem unreasonable.
The matchmaking is flawed because I could hardly find a match to play. If you want the score to settle, then make more people attack me, or reduce point gains from my victories, but do not deny me from playing the game. I neglected to mention this in the original post, but the average level of the matchups was 140, when I was running a team with an average level of 88.0 -
I am less interested in the average level vs your roster and more interested in the fact that you NEVER saw a score below 20 available (ok a single 19, but still) and saw many 30+ and a few 40+ point nodes. To me this is epic win, and not failure to match.
You are in the unfortunate position of being a newcomer to the game, with not even a max level 2* character and no OBW. PvP is sadly not designed for you. PvE, on the other hand, is totally designed for you.0 -
Lerysh wrote:PvP is sadly not designed for you.
Edit 1: Just realized from your mentioning of point rewards that I did not explain that column in the original post. Will fix it.
Edit 2: High point matchups only appear in conjunction with impossible to beat levels, so they are only useful for tanking matches at minimal point loss.0 -
Vynyv wrote:Perhaps you missed this line of textVynyv wrote:If you want the score to settle, then make more people attack me0
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If this is there so call, new matchmaking test, well it's not working, same pattern as before, soon as I hit 537pts, a wall of 270 appeared and lets note this, they boosted she-thor !!! ****, a full lvl is boosted to 375, these D3 guys need to get fired and replaced by normal "non-geek" persons, they are fooling around with us and laughing all day....
or maybe we should strike....lol0 -
Vinmarc43 wrote:If this is there so call, new matchmaking test, well it's not working, same pattern as before, soon as I hit 537pts, a wall of 270 appeared and lets note this, they boosted she-thor !!! ****, a full lvl is boosted to 375, these D3 guys need to get fired and replaced by normal "non-geek" persons, they are fooling around with us and laughing all day....
or maybe we should strike....lol
My advice for STRIKE is to sell all characters except **** 4HOR, XFW and random one, use all HP and ISO to boost 4HOR and play only with those three:-)))
Then, they will see variaty of play and character's use;-))
PS: I welcomed this event as I can try how usefull is my 4hor 4/2/3 at level around 180.0 -
The ELO formula predicts that if you have a rating of 400 higher than someone else you have a 90% chance of winning against them. Note that in the context of MPQ this usually means their chance of winning when they attack you has to be 10% chance because you'd never attack someone 400 points below you to begin with.
Now, looking at the roster of the poster in question, it wouldn't surprise me a team that settles at 700 in equilibrium without shields can actually win defensively 90% of the time.0 -
simonsez wrote:Vynyv wrote:Perhaps you missed this line of textVynyv wrote:If you want the score to settle, then make more people attack me
Is having a score that has settled at the 43 hour mark of a 60 hour tournament a good thing?0 -
papa07 wrote:Is having a score that has settled at the 43 hour mark of a 60 hour tournament a good thing?
Why not? Is someone going to start play harder to get out of the equilibrium? The only way you move out of equililbrium is really by pay harder so if you're not going to spend the money, you might as well have your score settle as soon as possible. The rating is supposed to measure how strong you are. It doesn't suddenly change in the last 8 hours of the event without a sudden infusion of money.0 -
simonsez wrote:If people are still attacking you, then your score hasn't settled yet. If you accept that there is an equilibrium point to be reached, you're describing it, not refuting it. You're not getting attacked, and you can't get any higher. Your score HAS settled.
- Players should have the option to play a reasonably matched game whenever they want, with the only restriction being health packs. Based on what the developers have stated through various interviews, I think this position is in good agreement with their intentions. Unfortunately, this functionality is only provided to low level players right now, and only in the form of the prologue chapters. All other formats in game can become inaccessible due to over scaling (PvE), lack of essential characters (PvE), or poor match making (PvP).
- Points and rankings in PvP should be a reflection of a player's ability to win matches. Furthermore, both points and ranking should stabilize over time as a longer match history gives a better gauge of one's ability to win. This is not an issue in contention here.
Phantron wrote:The ELO formula predicts that if you have a rating of 400 higher than someone else you have a 90% chance of winning against them. Note that in the context of MPQ this usually means their chance of winning when they attack you has to be 10% chance because you'd never attack someone 400 points below you to begin with.
Now, looking at the roster of the poster in question, it wouldn't surprise me a team that settles at 700 in equilibrium without shields can actually win defensively 90% of the time.
All this still ignores the fact that ELO was designed for chess, where players had the same chess pieces, and the first move advantage is relatively small (52–55% win chance). In MPQ, players generally have different team compositions and the attacker has a much large advantage. Yet we can overlook this flaw if the MPQ match making algorithm would just avoid producing such vastly uneven matchups.0 -
Your roster is about as bad as it gets. No one even bothers with 1*'s anymore and the general rule for when to stop tanking (if you want to go as low as possible) is to wait until you see unmaxed 2*'s.
For everyone, regardless of how long you've been playing, you hit a point where you can't go any farther without surging. Your point appears to be around 260. If you want to go higher, win some matches quickly with AP boosts, hit your 300/400/500/whatever point and be happy with your rewards until you've got fully covered and maxed 2*s, its not that hard anymore. Tank/win/surge/whatever until you get the covers you need, then get ready to complain about getting it up the butt by 3* and 4* rosters.
I'd also like to point out this is the worst possible PvP for you. Really good 2* characters are boosted and compete at about 3* quality. Your test would probably be a lot more accurate during that Thor or Squirrel Girl PvP.0 -
Vynyv wrote:Lerysh wrote:PvP is sadly not designed for you.
Edit 1: Just realized from your mentioning of point rewards that I did not explain that column in the original post. Will fix it.
Edit 2: High point matchups only appear in conjunction with impossible to beat levels, so they are only useful for tanking matches at minimal point loss.
There is no such thing as an impossible to beat node for me, so high point levels mean good things. Just as you said, PvP is intended to be the mainstay of MPQ, which means it's designed, and rightfully so, for players who have been around for quite some time. 270s and 166s on the roster and no where to go but into the PvP match-fest. Sadly recent changes make it so most these players see 10-15 point matches at high levels (if that) since shielding for a majority of the tournament has become the norm. If you aren't communicating heavily outside of the game looking for targets then you get basically stuck in an endless retaliation loop where you can't break out of X points because if you take a 15 you get hit back for 30. Matchmaking giving you 20+ at all times is a highlight for players like me. I'm sorry your PvP experience hasn't been good so far, but it should get better once you get the OBW covers and levels. There are only 2 or 3 viable 2* teams, and you already have Ares at 70+ so Ares+OBW should be your go to team.0 -
Totally agree with previous Dkffiv post. You have almost sky-high score with your roster.
If you cross certain points treshold, wou will get pawned be others. Your score will lower to some other treshold where veterans wont see you anymore.
This is how that this game is right now and where should still be in the future.
Why many new players think they should be winning pvp tournaments? And they should be bracketed only by other newbies (to ensure win )? And veterans should be bracketed only by other veterans (because it is unfair to see my Ares Obw team crushed by X-Force and GT) ?
This would be disaster !!
If this would be like that, there wouldnt be any reason to progress in this game whatsoever !!
BEST PVP tactics would be to have 1* Ironman.
Im developing my roster to be ABLE to score more.
With full 2* around 600, with full 3* around 700 - 800, with full 4* 800+
It would be completely unfair, if I as 4* player would see only 4* teams from 0 to 800.
NO. I dont want to see ANY 4* to atleast 700. This is how it should be, easily win to some treshold.
MMR is like pyramid. The higher you are, the less people you will see (and the would have ofc fully leveled 4*)0 -
Deleted, computer double posted.0
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Vynyv wrote:simonsez wrote:If people are still attacking you, then your score hasn't settled yet. If you accept that there is an equilibrium point to be reached, you're describing it, not refuting it. You're not getting attacked, and you can't get any higher. Your score HAS settled.
- Players should have the option to play a reasonably matched game whenever they want, with the only restriction being health packs. Based on what the developers have stated through various interviews, I think this position is in good agreement with their intentions. Unfortunately, this functionality is only provided to low level players right now, and only in the form of the prologue chapters. All other formats in game can become inaccessible due to over scaling (PvE), lack of essential characters (PvE), or poor match making (PvP).
- Points and rankings in PvP should be a reflection of a player's ability to win matches. Furthermore, both points and ranking should stabilize over time as a longer match history gives a better gauge of one's ability to win. This is not an issue in contention here.
I agree there should always be matches for you to play with a reasonable chance to win. It's a game and you should have the ability to play it. If you keep getting hit down to a score, that is your balance point. You should be seeing matches you don't want to play, because they are worth too little because of the risk of retaliation along with the matches that would be difficult to win. Boosts and first move bonus give you the ability to win some matches you shouldn't normally win.
This game lacks a version of PvP which allows for fun and use of full rosters. Don't get stuck in the mentality that PvP only has to be a race to the top. It can also be a training area, like Shield Simulator, for different combination of characters and variety to keep the game fresh. However, they tied the shield simulator into the season scores, so it becomes an essential for high placements. It is TERRIBLE that Shield Simulator applies to the season scores. It should offer ISO all the time, be a true progression area where everyone can win the rewards once a month with enough play, and never lose points from matches. Use truly random pairings and keep MMR out of it or run a separate MMR. Don't allow people to use it to tank. Allow people to play the game with any of their roster at any time.Vynyv wrote:Phantron wrote:The ELO formula predicts that if you have a rating of 400 higher than someone else you have a 90% chance of winning against them. Note that in the context of MPQ this usually means their chance of winning when they attack you has to be 10% chance because you'd never attack someone 400 points below you to begin with.
Now, looking at the roster of the poster in question, it wouldn't surprise me a team that settles at 700 in equilibrium without shields can actually win defensively 90% of the time.
All this still ignores the fact that ELO was designed for chess, where players had the same chess pieces, and the first move advantage is relatively small (52–55% win chance). In MPQ, players generally have different team compositions and the attacker has a much large advantage. Yet we can overlook this flaw if the MPQ match making algorithm would just avoid producing such vastly uneven matchups.
MPQ is not chess. Applying ELO to it is terrible. With applying ELO to it, it should be just like chess. You want to keep your ranking as high as you can, because you want to be seeded into the better tournaments. If your MMR is at each of a higher rank, you should just start PvP events off at a tier. (automatically get the lower rewards because you've maintained your ranking.) So I used to be a Class A player, not an Expert, not a Master, not a Grandmaster. If I were maintaining a Class A level MMR in this game, I should start right out with a score of say 500 points. Why, because there is almost no way for me to score less than 500 points in PvP right now. The challenge is for me to push 650+ points. All the playtime of me getting to 500 is just wasting my time and my characters health. Those of you always battling for 1000+ should start out somewhere higher, 750?, where you are right at the front lines. Then you would never want to tank. Because if you drop from Grand Master rank down to Master, now you have to slog through the lower ranked matches again. Wasting your time and providing no challenge to you. There should be events I can't enter because I don't maintain a high enough MMR, just as there should be events you are locked out of, because your MMR shows you would skew the competition, reducing your joy and others in the event. Reward structure commensurate with ranking.
As long as tanking and needing to manipulate your MMR to be able to play exists in the game, it will contain the flaws that come with it. Those being multitudes of annoyingly easy matches, and frustration for lower ranked players that get roflstomped by 4*s.
Chess, golf, football, all have levels of competition. If I go play flag football, I'm not playing against NFL players. Sure, I won't make a million dollars a year, but I get to enjoy playing.
TL;DR
I know this hit my personal rant on how they use an ELO system, but they don't USE the ELO system. Players should be rewarded for maintaining a high MMR and NEVER need to tank, let alone want to. Players should be able to play their full rosters any time without it impacting their or their Alliance's season score.0 -
Lerysh wrote:There is no such thing as an impossible to beat node for me, so high point levels mean good things.
My Team:
L111 4/4/3 Ares with 6,878 health
L74 3/5/5 Daken with 3,100 health
L80 0/2/1 Loki with 2,913 health
Total Health: 12,891
Max damage efficiency: Onslaught at 267 damage per green
Green match damage: 61
Max damage per turn: (61 + 267) * 3 = 984
Enemy Team (33 point reward):
L371 5/3/5 4Thor with 22,491 health
L201 5/3/5 Loki with 7,152 health
L248 5/5/3 X-Force with 10,069 health
Total health: 39,712
Average match damage: 89.5
Average match-3 damage per turn: 268.5
Ignoring complications from downed characters, overkill, match-4/5's, enemy ability use and etc., then it would take ~40 consecutive turns of green matches and Onslaught for me to defeat the enemy team, whereas the enemy team could wipe me out in ~48 turns with just match damage alone. If a single Smite (4640 dmg), Striking Distance (1605 dmg), X-Force (3388 dmg), or Surgical Strike (518/tile) were to go off, it would easily make up for the 8 turn differential (2148 damage) and result in my loss.
This is not a fun matchup, and should not have been presented by the match making algorithm.Lerysh wrote:Just as you said, PvP is intended to be the mainstay of MPQ, which means it's designed, and rightfully so, for players who have been around for quite some time. 270s and 166s on the roster and no where to go but into the PvP match-fest.Phillipes wrote:This is how that this game is right now and where should still be in the future.Lerysh wrote:There are only 2 or 3 viable 2* teams, and you already have Ares at 70+ so Ares+OBW should be your go to team.
(Dear RNG Gods: I have three OBW purples already, please drop some blue/black instead)Phillipes wrote:Why many new players think they should be winning pvp tournaments?0 -
papa07 wrote:Is having a score that has settled at the 43 hour mark of a 60 hour tournament a good thing?0
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Vynyv wrote:There is no reason for a settled score to deny a player from participating in further matches.
It doesn't. If you accept that your current score is your equilibrium, and if MMR matchmaking is working as intended, you can participate again. You would have to face someone to whom you'd probably lose, and then your reduced MMR would allow you to find matches that would get you back to your equilibrium level. Or, you could do a lot of skipping, find an overachiever you could beat, and then you'd get attacked (probably several times), getting you back to, or below, equilibrium.0 -
simonsez wrote:It doesn't. If you accept that your current score is your equilibrium, and if MMR matchmaking is working as intended, you can participate again. You would have to face someone to whom you'd probably lose, and then your reduced MMR would allow you to find matches that would get you back to your equilibrium level. Or, you could do a lot of skipping, find an overachiever you could beat, and then you'd get attacked (probably several times), getting you back to, or below, equilibrium.0
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