Bought a 42-pack Anniversary... Bad call.

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Comments

  • Tenacious BB
    Tenacious BB Posts: 40 Just Dropped In
    Like I said, I just used WolframAlpha:

    http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=prob ... 49&x=0&y=0

    I got three Dino, probability of that result is ~7%, and one was pink. That's ****, and why I posted... $100 for two good Dino's and one **** Dino feels lame.

    However, the combined odds for 3*+ overall is 1-(0.098 * 6) or 41.8%.

    My distribution was:

    2* 24
    3* 12
    4* 6

    18 successes out of 42 is 42.8%, so I did almost perfectly on that trial...

    However, my big disappointment there is not necessarily mathematical; besides wanting Dino real bad and seeing a hell of an opportunity to own a 4* with max covers (including this pack, daily picks for 50HP, and event rewards), I wanted to try and accelerate my 3* transition. To that end:

    1) the only maxed char I own is im40, who is absolutely **** to begin with, and I pulled two more of those (1000 ISO-8)
    2) the reality of Nick Fury/Inv Woman is that without another Anniversary special type blowout, It'll take years before those characters are even practical
    3) I have a 5/0/5 Punisher, and with the cover set to be retired, missing a green pull here means he'll be practically useless for a loooong time. I can't even buy a green straight up until one magically drops... How goofball is that?
    4) Only a few of those 3* covers actually helped my ambitions towards putting a 3* team on the playing field someday.

    I know... Whine on, poor rich boy that can drop $100 on a card pack. Like I said in the OP, I consider it money well spent in the grander scheme of things (aka $/hr of enjoyment) as this game has given me loads of pleasurable gameplay. However, this $100 stung a bit, and it'll have a powerful influence on my decision to buy in again down the road... Just sayin'. ****.
  • itstime1234
    itstime1234 Posts: 369 Mover and Shaker
    Tenacious BB wrote:
    Like I said, I just used WolframAlpha:

    http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=prob ... 49&x=0&y=0

    I got three Dino, probability of that result is ~7%, and one was pink. That's ****, and why I posted... $100 for two good Dino's and one **** Dino feels lame.

    However, the combined odds for 3*+ overall is 1-(0.098 * 6) or 41.8%.

    My distribution was:

    2* 24
    3* 12
    4* 6

    18 successes out of 42 is 42.8%, so I did almost perfectly on that trial...

    However, my big disappointment there is not necessarily mathematical; besides wanting Dino real bad and seeing a hell of an opportunity to own a 4* with max covers (including this pack, daily picks for 50HP, and event rewards), I wanted to try and accelerate my 3* transition. To that end:

    1) the only maxed char I own is im40, who is absolutely **** to begin with, and I pulled two more of those (1000 ISO-8)
    2) the reality of Nick Fury/Inv Woman is that without another Anniversary special type blowout, It'll take years before those characters are even practical
    3) I have a 5/0/5 Punisher, and with the cover set to be retired, missing a green pull here means he'll be practically useless for a loooong time. I can't even buy a green straight up until one magically drops... How goofball is that?
    4) Only a few of those 3* covers actually helped my ambitions towards putting a 3* team on the playing field someday.

    I know... Whine on, poor rich boy that can drop $100 on a card pack. Like I said in the OP, I consider it money well spent in the grander scheme of things (aka $/hr of enjoyment) as this game has given me loads of pleasurable gameplay. However, this $100 stung a bit, and it'll have a powerful influence on my decision to buy in again down the road... Just sayin'. ****.

    Great post. I wish other people who were mad went this route. Sorry to hear about the lack of Dinos, although If only IM40 is max covered shouldnt the other 3^ covers help. I mean at least the majority of them? While Dino is fun and the flavour of the day, the other gold tokens you got may prove better in progressing.

    Best of luck.
  • nimvin
    nimvin Posts: 81
    You got 18 3* or better covers. 18/42=42.8....%

    That looks like the 40% that everyone was saying you should get.

    Edit:
    Not sure how I missed the post before me or who he quoted. Move along nothing to see here. Lol.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I decided to do it, disappointed as well. Got 1 Green dino, a Fury, an IW, 7 other 3* and 32 2*'s. Shoulda listened to you.
  • Wolarsen
    Wolarsen Posts: 326 Mover and Shaker
    I am each time more convinced that we do not get exactly the pure chance distribution shown in the info page, but there's some kind of algorithm tweaking it.

    I opened 16 anniversary tokens and got not a single Dino; with a 9,9% chance per token, chances for no dino was 2%. On the other hand, i got 2 other legendarys and 3 golds, but the funny thing is that 2 of those were a valid cover for two 12 cover characters I had! (erm, I will not calculate chances for this if you excuse me, but I foresee it's kinda low...).

    I have opened 6x 10-packs from past seasons, and in 3 of them I got no golds/legendary. With a listed chance of 19% to get a gold, chances for none is 3,8%.

    This is not actually a complain, I am somehow satisfied with my progression in the game, but data from myself and alliance partners after months of gameplay makes me feel that the results defy wildly a plain chance distribution.
  • ErikPeter
    ErikPeter Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
    Never paid for this game before, so I said what the hell, it's an anniversary, and bought a 42 pack. I came a bit low on the Dino average (4 covers) but did close to as expected overall. Better than bad.

    Legendary (9)
    1x 20000 ISO-8
    1x 600 HP
    Fury Blue x1, Yellow x1
    IW Green
    Dino Green x1, Red x2, Purple x1

    Rare (usable) (8)
    Colossus Black x1, Yellow x1
    Psylocke Black
    She-Hulk Red x1, Green x1
    Beast Green
    Storm Green
    Deadpool Black

    Rare (unusable) (5)
    Patch Red
    Punisher Black x2, Green x1
    Daredevil Purple

    plus 20 2-stars

    Not a bad haul, was hoping for a couple more Dinos or a Captain Marvel, but like I said it matched my expectations (Roughly a 1/3 chance per token of a usable pull)
  • MaskedMan
    MaskedMan Posts: 234 Tile Toppler
    Basically you can tell nothing from a limited pool of data on testing odds. Odds are fickle things and things work out the way they want to. For everyone who buys a 10 pack and gets no gold or 1 gold there is someone like me in this event where I got well over 50% gold cards from anniversary tokens.

    I saw the odds and couldn't resist buying a couple 10 packs. I ended up with 3 ****, 11 devil dinos (5 green, 3 red, 3 purple), and some random 3 ***s (all good 3 *** s for a change too).

    This is coming from someone who calls Heroic tokens "Bag Man" tokens because that is all I ever seem to get from them. You can play the odds but you can't count on them.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Last time someone tried to use graphs to keep track of dinosaurs, it ended in utter disaster... just saying...
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    MaskedMan wrote:
    Basically you can tell nothing from a limited pool of data on testing odds.
    ... unless you've ever taken a course on Statistics and Probability
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Buying Tokens is ALWAYS a bad deal. They can help a new player get a 3 star covers to start making the transition to from 2-3 but if you are 300$ into this game you SHOULD NOT be buying tokens EVER

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