Bought a 42-pack Anniversary... Bad call.

Tenacious BB

So I'm probably $300+ into this game... I own my own 20 person top 200 alliance, and I consider this game a far wiser use of smoking/pooping time the Candy Crush Saga (sorry for the sprinkle of reality). I consider it money well spent when I consider the $/hour is probably still less than bowling, which I also love.

Seeing as how generous D3P is feeling with the anniversary events, I got a little drunk on Sunday and bought a 42-pack, hoping for some solid Dino returns @ "14.9%" and the ever elusive green punisher cover before it goes on hiatus. I have a witness who was all, "buy it, buy it" and then cringing in horror at the result...

I'm posting my result as a warning to any who buy into the posted odds, which I believe are ... Let's say, a bit off.

DO NOT BUY INTO THE HYPE: WolframAlpha says I have a 7% chance of drawing Dino at 14.9% this badly, and a 1.2% chance of drawing this badly overall. Maybe I just got 1.2% unlucky, but regardless I just wanted to share my results for the statistics pounders out there. I seriously doubt my results are that inconsistent with others, which is a shame as this is the most I have paid for app any I've ever owned (and I own every table of Farsight Studios Pinball Arcade, which at this point I believe is a far wiser investment. Pinball rules!)

Torch 3* red
Cap 2* red
Dino 4* red
Torch 2* green
Dino 4* purp
Widow 2* blue
Torch 2* green
Ares 2* red
Sentry 3* green
Hawkeye 2* blue
Torch 2* black
Hawkeye 2* purple
Panther 3* blue
Psylocke 3* blue
Hawkeye 2* red
Dino 4* red
Widow 2* black
Cap 2* red
Torch 2* green
Widow 2* blue
Falcon 3* yellow
Widow 2* blue
She hulk 3* red
Cap 2* yellow
Torch 2* black
Im40 3* red
Dead pool 3* red
Fury 4* blue
Fury 4* yellow
Psylocke 3* black
Moon 2* black
Colossus 3* black
Sentry 3* green
Moon 2* purp
Cap 2* blue
Ares 2* yellow
Im40 3* blue
Hawkeye 2* red
Inv woman 4* blue
Hawk 2* blue
Ares 2* sunder
Cap 2* yellow

SunCrusher

I'm sorry the numbers didn't quite work out in your favor (or anyone else's favor) after such an investment though unfortunately, it likely still falls within the possibilities of how a pull could go re: fickleness of probability and how actual probability is calculated.

In regards to Recruit Tokens alone, I've managed to pull 10+ Venoms in 30someodd pulls and 10 of them for sure were all in a row back to back with a mix of Black and Purple covers.

I'm not sure what the probability for such a thing is, but after that happened to me, I was completely, absolutely, and utterly dissuaded from ever buying a Token pull pack and I've bought into this game myself by buying HP for Roster Slots.

Moon Roach

I hit the other end of the curve, when they first went on sale. (I admit it, Moon Roach is an idiot, but it's a dinosaur and the kids love the animation for purple.)

Dino: 3 red, 5 Green, 7 Purple
IW: Blue

Falcon: Blue
Sentry: Yellow
DD: Blue
Storm: 2 Green
HT: Red

And the rest were 2*

It is random, after all.

Unknown

Firstly, I always wondered what it would be like to buy a 40/42-pack so thank you for sharing.

Secondly, I nearly failed my discrete mathematics course so I am not even going to pretend to remember that which I didn't quite get in the first place.

But it seems reasonable to me to approximate the 14.9% draw chance of a Dino cover as 1 in 7. You drew 3 Dinos in 42 tries or 1 in 14 which is basically half the odds.

My aforementioned failure to grasp analysis of probabilities notwithstanding, I'd say 1 in 14 is in this case not too far outside the norm. Unlucky, but not super unlucky.

Also you did score 11 3* covers and 3 other 4* covers.

I'm with you; if i just spent $50 in a feel-good moment and got 25 2* covers I don't think I'd be all that happy with the results. But putting some thought to it I don't actually think your results were all that... unfair?

I'd be interested to know how others fared...

PS. If it makes you feel any better I plunked down for the Stark Salary to max out several characters just before the Combined Arms / Venom Heroic events only to find I can't really make use of any of them... #firstworldproblems

Unknown

Moon Roach wrote:

I hit the other end of the curve, when they first went on sale. (I admit it, Moon Roach is an idiot, but it's a dinosaur and the kids love the animation for purple.)

Dino: 3 red, 5 Green, 7 Purple
IW: Blue

Falcon: Blue
Sentry: Yellow
DD: Blue
Storm: 2 Green
HT: Red

And the rest were 2*

It is random, after all.

15 Dino covers in one 42 Pack ???? You must have been happy !

Unknown

If I understand correctly the 42-pack odds and all events should be treated separately as independent events, then the odds of getting 42 dinos are: 14.9%^42=0.000000000000000000000000000000002%.
There would be some disribution of odds of pulling some number of covers (taking into account number of different combinations - i.e. 1st, 2nd, 3d or 1st, 2nd, 4th etc.).
If assume that everyone has equal chances to pull any number of covers that means that Moon Roach hits the 0.01% of 15-cover pullers and Tenacious hits 11.15% of 3-cover pullers.

Unknown

I bought 2 42 packs BEFORE I could see the Dino covers were given as rewards for the PvP...

Had no red or green covers in the 1st, that's why I bought the second. Overall I was satisfied with what I got. The 20 000 HP value was covered.

I had a friend buying a 10 pack, and he got 5 or 6 Dino covers inside.

Unknown

arktos1971 wrote:

I bought 2 42 packs BEFORE I could see the Dino covers were given as rewards for the PvP...

Had no red or green covers in the 1st, that's why I bought the second. Overall I was satisfied with what I got. The 20 000 HP value was covered.

I had a friend buying a 10 pack, and he got 5 or 6 Dino covers inside.

This is 10-pack Dino covers odds distribution:

Unknown

intelligent wrote:

arktos1971 wrote:

I bought 2 42 packs BEFORE I could see the Dino covers were given as rewards for the PvP...

Had no red or green covers in the 1st, that's why I bought the second. Overall I was satisfied with what I got. The 20 000 HP value was covered.

I had a friend buying a 10 pack, and he got 5 or 6 Dino covers inside.

This is 10-pack Dino covers odds distribution:

I guess one can say your nick here is well deserved

Wolarsen

Great graphs; what do you use to create then? I would like to know a website offering it.

Oh, also cumulative chances please

Unknown

Wolarsen wrote:

Great graphs; what do you use to create then? I would like to know a website offering it.

Oh, also cumulative chances please

Used Excel only. But 2013
Cumulative 42-pack:


Cumulative 10-pack:


Note that approximate average for 42 pack (50%)= 4.881 covers > average for 10 pack (50%)=4.706

Unknown

Your selfish actions led you into buying a 42-pack for yourself while you could have given it to me and helped me transition because I needed 80% of the heroes in that pack. So, yes, you made a bad call indeed.

simonsez

I don't believe these graphs are correct. The probabilities sum to 100%, but zero isn't accounted for. They're not guaranteeing at least one Dino, are they?

Eddiemon

intelligent wrote:

This is 10-pack Dino covers odds distribution:

Seriously? That isn't even close.

Lets start with 0 dinos, which isn't even on your graph. That would be 0.85^10, or just shy of 20%
1 dino is 0.85^9 x0.15 x 10. Around 35%.
2 dinos is 0.85^8 x 0.15^2 x (10x9)/2. Around 27%
3 dinos is 0.85^7 x 0.15^3 x (10x9x8)/(2x3). Around 13%
4 dinos is 0.85^6 x 0.15^4 x (10x9x8x7)/(2x3x4). Around 4%
5 dinos comes in south of 1%.

The numbers get minute after that point.

Unknown

to the OP counting just all 3*+ covers you have about 16 out of 42. to me that is sick odds considering the last 42x packs I have purchases in the past have given me only about 9.5 average per 42x pack.

there fore you are way ahead of the curve in terms of drawing for top covers.

wymtime

First I love all the graphs and how much everyone has analysed the packs. I just have to say this for everyone who is buying any type of pack. Packs are like gambling on Roulette. You are placing your bet of HP for a chance to draw and win something big. Just like Roulette the odds are swayed in the houses favor. The Anniversary Packs have been given better odds than other packs, but they are still in D3's favor. I have done the 50hp daily deal and have gotten all the token progression except the 10 pack and I have gotten 1 IW, 1 Psy, and i dino devil. I will have invested 350HP for these covers if I don't pull another 3-4* cover. To me this has been LOW RISK MEDIUM REWARD. When you buy a 10 pack or a 42 pack you are taking HIGH RISK for HIGH REWARD. The higher the risk the more likely you don't get exactly what you want. If you like to gamble go for the packs. If you don't like the risk you can use HP you spent on the packs to buy a cover directly. Also the more 3* covers you have the more risk is involved in these packs becuase the odds of getting something you needs goes down.

Please buy at your own risk and think of it like a trip to Vegas. You bring money you are willing to loose, not money you need to pay your bills.

Unknown

silverrex wrote:

to the OP counting just all 3*+ covers you have about 16 out of 42. to me that is sick odds considering the last 42x packs I have purchases in the past have given me only about 9.5 average per 42x pack.

there fore you are way ahead of the curve in terms of drawing for top covers.

He isn't way ahead of the curve. The prizes from the Anniversary tokens are just better. That is why the daily 50HP for a cover is such a great deal. You have about a 40% chance of getting a 3* or 4* cover.

GothicKratos

rooter wrote:

silverrex wrote:

to the OP counting just all 3*+ covers you have about 16 out of 42. to me that is sick odds considering the last 42x packs I have purchases in the past have given me only about 9.5 average per 42x pack.

there fore you are way ahead of the curve in terms of drawing for top covers.

He isn't way ahead of the curve. The prizes from the Anniversary tokens are just better. That is why the daily 50HP for a cover is such a great deal. You have about a 40% chance of getting a 3* or 4* cover.

He's just talking about a different curve than you.

Unknown

Super sucks dude! My Devil Dino was 533 after my 42 pack. However, my small gripe is getting only 1 colossus cover. Small cuz he's being rotated in after 10/17. Though I wish I had gotten more 3* Torch . I only have one cover of that (from the 42pack)...but he's rotating out so...comon single tokens!

Unknown

Eddiemon wrote:

Seriously? That isn't even close.

Lets start with 0 dinos, which isn't even on your graph. That would be 0.85^10, or just shy of 20%
1 dino is 0.85^9 x0.15 x 10. Around 35%.
2 dinos is 0.85^8 x 0.15^2 x (10x9)/2. Around 27%
3 dinos is 0.85^7 x 0.15^3 x (10x9x8)/(2x3). Around 13%
4 dinos is 0.85^6 x 0.15^4 x (10x9x8x7)/(2x3x4). Around 4%
5 dinos comes in south of 1%.

The numbers get minute after that point.

You're 100% right, I've messed everything I know about odds and combinatorics. Now feel myself like sertified promoter of D3 packs

The real odds for 10 pack would be:

Cumulative:


The real odds for 42 pack would be:

Cumulative:


And in terms of 50% of distribution (average), for 10-pack this would be approx. 0.945 covers and for 42 pack - 5.721 covers.

Dayv

I bought a ten-pack because dinosaur, and got three Devil Dinos (one red and two purple, because ARGH PURPLE). I was pleased.