5* Kitty Pryde hates me!

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  • havoks
    havoks Posts: 4 Just Dropped In
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    That's interesting if true, but like you said we wouldn't know what the sequences are in each store and the probability is still 1/63 no matter how your distribute your pulls between stores because the "pre-defined sequence" is presumably generated based on the advertised odds. So it still wouldn't lend credence to the idea that "distributing 63 pulls equally between 3 stores is the same as pulling 21 times."
  • AXP_isme
    AXP_isme Posts: 809 Critical Contributor
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    Agreed. Not sure where that equivalence derived from. I guess my point is that if the draws were from a pool of iid variables then any 63 pulls where Kitty was one of the available outcomes would be equally likely to render the desired result. Under the system I described, which I understand to be in effect, not all sets of 63 pulls are ‘created equal’, as it were. 

    Not that there’s anything you can do about it. 
  • Vhailorx
    Vhailorx Posts: 6,085 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited January 2020
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    HoundofShadow said:
    I'm sure that I read that it was mentioned by other players (not newbies) before that each store has it own pull tracking. That's why I wrote what I wrote.
    Yup, for every store there is a fixed string of rolls for every player out to infinity. 

    You can't change the rolls.  But from those who have hoarded tokens, it looks like the way the game tracks is like this. 

    Assume there were a latest 5* only token, with 4 possible drops, each of the four latest 5*s. (This example is made up for easy math, but the principles translate to the in-game tokens.)

    Then assume that the result of each roll is calculated as a number from 1 to 100, in increments of 1, using an algorithm (presumably the forumla is something like 'use a unique player id number as a seed value, then apply the agorithm and iterate n times where n is the number of pulls').  So the moment a store is created, the game engine can quickly calculate the result for any number of pulls for any player.  A result of 1-25 means you get 5* #1.  26-50 means you get 5* #2, etc

    As stated above, the rolls never change.  So if your first roll from the my hypothetical store is 26, then using my example, you will always get 5* #2 from that token, no matter when you open it.  BUT, and this is reasonably big caveat, the reward pools change over time as new characters are added to the game. 

    Swapping back to the current latest legends token pool,  5* #2 today is carnage.  But in a month or so, it will be BRB.  Thus the same token might provide you with a different cover depending on whether you open it today or next month, even though the actual underlying roll is the same.

    Things get even more complicated with 4*s and classic 5*s, where characters are added to the pool rather than swapped in, but I will ignore that for purposes of this post.

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